A Patriots day one mock

[patchick]

I've tried to make this as realistic as possible in terms of player availability. I've also included alternate selections to substitute if a player is not available...or if a higher-rated player unexpectedly IS still there (e.g. Maurice Stovall vs. Mike Hass).

I await your brilliant rebuttals!


Round 1

I start off with the assumption that none of these players last to #21:

Michael Huff, S
Chad Greenway, LB
LenDale White, RB
Manny Lawson, DE/OLB

Then:

Trade down...let's say #21 and a 4th-rounder for Chicago's #26 and their 3rd (#90).


#26 Richard Marshall, CB, Fresno State
Hard-hitting playmaker from a program the Pats know well; by April, I suspect this will not seem like a reach. (Alternates: Ko Simpson)

#53 Stanley McClover, DE/OLB, Auburn
6'3" 260, fast and agile with a great first step; very active, hard hitter. (Alternates: Bobby Carpenter, Darryl Tapp)

#77 Joe Toledo, OT, Washington
Converted tight end, 6'6" 310, quick, agile, raw. I'm not looking for OL help higher than round 3 because I think this class of tackles is deep but with few real stars. (Alternates: Daryn Colledge, Andrew Whitworth)

#85 Mike Hass, WR, Oregon St
Terrific route runner, great hands, solid blocker, smart, productive player. (Alternates: Maurice Stovall, Greg Lee)

#90 Mike Bell, RB, Arizona
Very solid all-around power back, excellent hands, strong blocker.

What could throw this off:
If the Patriots sign a significant FA defensive back before the draft, I think they aim hard for Greenway or Lawson in round 1.

 

[Art_Vandelay421]

I like your thinking...but...

I've tried to make this as realistic as possible in terms of player availability. I've also included alternate selections to substitute if a player is not available...or if a higher-rated player unexpectedly IS still there (e.g. Maurice Stovall vs. Mike Hass).

I await your brilliant rebuttals!


Round 1

I start off with the assumption that none of these players last to #21:

Michael Huff, S
Chad Greenway, LB
LenDale White, RB
Manny Lawson, DE/OLB

Then:

Trade down...let's say #21 and a 4th-rounder for Chicago's #26 and their 3rd (#90).


#26 Richard Marshall, CB, Fresno State
Hard-hitting playmaker from a program the Pats know well; by April, I suspect this will not seem like a reach. (Alternates: Ko Simpson)

#53 Stanley McClover, DE/OLB, Auburn
6'3" 260, fast and agile with a great first step; very active, hard hitter. (Alternates: Bobby Carpenter, Darryl Tapp)

#77 Joe Toledo, OT, Washington
Converted tight end, 6'6" 310, quick, agile, raw. I'm not looking for OL help higher than round 3 because I think this class of tackles is deep but with few real stars. (Alternates: Daryn Colledge, Andrew Whitworth)

#85 Mike Hass, WR, Oregon St
Terrific route runner, great hands, solid blocker, smart, productive player. (Alternates: Maurice Stovall, Greg Lee)

#90 Mike Bell, RB, Arizona
Very solid all-around power back, excellent hands, strong blocker.

What could throw this off:
If the Patriots sign a significant FA defensive back before the draft, I think they aim hard for Greenway or Lawson in round 1.

I am a big Richard Marshall fan. For our needs and taking a realistic choice, he is the best. Now, if any of the players (Huff, Greenway, Lawson, etal.) you assume are not going to be there at 21, just happen to drop to 21 what do you do? What if you are faced with the choice of Lawson or White, what do you do? What if just Lawson is there?

Are you also assuming we take an OT in the later rounds? If we don't sign Neal...it could necessitate us taking one sooner. Part of me says Brady cannot get hit again like he did this season, so we protect him.

All in all...if Tags announces Patriots take Richard marshall of Fresno State I would be thrilled!

 

[dryheat44]

I would be very happy with this draft.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Rebuttal aye aye ma'am!

The difficulty I have with assessing mocks (thanks for focusing on 'Patriot targets') is my ignorance of the needs of the other teams, not to mention my ignorance of their systems. This year is going to be very challenging for draftniks with 10 new coaching staffs around the league trying to implement their systems and adapt what they want to do to what was handed them by the outgoing team. There should be more then one huge surprise in the first round.

What I see regarding this draft class:

Good DE tweeners are all through the draft.
Good TEs are all through the draft.
Good CBs are all through the draft.
Good SS/OLB tweeners are all through the draft.
Good OGs start at the end of the 1st and go through the draft.
Good OTs are all through the draft.
Good RBs are all through the draft.
Possession WRs are all through the draft.

By "good" I mean talent & value for the Patriots in that round.

3-4 NTs are in short supply on the 1st day.
3-4 DEs are in short supply.
3-4 OLBs are in short supply.
3-4 ILBs are in short supply.

Not sure if that was prelude or just disconnected rambling as I drowse over the keyboard, but with those perceptions coloring my thinking I have no complaint with the talent you've targeted for the Pats. I wouldn't target a RB on day one, that's just me thinking I have four picks to work with (any trades I projected would be wishful thinking) and RB is a luxury pick.

What I would target:

OT, TE, CB in round one.....Specific 'talent' players:
- DE/OLB Manny Lawson - I concur, his stock is rising and he may be out of reach;
- NT Montavius Stanley - reach for him if you have to based on (1) http://www.fftoolbox.com/nfl_draft/profile_display.cfm?Prospect_ID=170 and Mike Mayock's ramblings during Senior Bowl practices (this may change as other draft sites get their data current, but he is the only day one NT who looks to have the size, athleticism, and hustle to play behind Vince); and (2) the 3-4 player supply/demand challenge. If we can't retain Seymour he could give BB a chance to slide Vince out to DE in 2007.

Round two/three: no RB, QB, S, C - I have no individual targets yet, though C/OT Ryan Cook of New Mexico could be a round three target just because he looked good at RT in the Senior Bowl after playing C in college. A C/OT/OG combo in round three seems good value there, a C/OG combo can wait a day.

Individually, Marshall I like, McClover I see as part of a value group in round two, Toledo may need to spend a year at the Dante academy for converting TEs - same as Ashworth did, Hass is likely to be one of my targeted individuals, as for Bell - to paraphrase that Blazing Saddles' classic 'RBs, we don't need no stinking RBs'!

 

[PATSNUTme]

We really need a solid backup for Vince. If the kid from Stanford is around in round 2 or 3, I say grab him. Wish I could think of his name.

 

[patchick]

We really need a solid backup for Vince. If the kid from Stanford is around in round 2 or 3, I say grab him. Wish I could think of his name.

I agree with the goal, but I suspect that the few NT candidates in this draft are likely to go unreasonably high. I'll bet the kid from Stanford (Babatunde Oshinowo) ends up in the first round when it's all said and done. I'd like to learn more about BOR's pick Montavious Stanley...I know the Huddle Report loves him, but nobody else seems equally enthused. (He's also the first player I've ever searched for online and come up with an essay he wrote for English class!)

And I would dearly love to know how Santonio Thomas is coming along.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I agree with the goal, but I suspect that the few NT candidates in this draft are likely to go unreasonably high. I'll bet the kid from Stanford (Babatunde Oshinowo) ends up in the first round when it's all said and done. I'd like to learn more about BOR's pick Montavious Stanley...I know the Huddle Report loves him, but nobody else seems equally enthused. (He's also the first player I've ever searched for online and come up with an essay he wrote for English class!)

And I would dearly love to know how Santonio Thomas is coming along.

http://www.sportsdialogue.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=61&Itemid=50

Big East Interviews
Written by Pat Schuster
Saturday, 10 September 2005

Right before the season started I had the chance to talk with Louisville's big defensive linemen Montavious Stanley about his life, college football and what he's looking forward this season.

Footballdialogue.com: What is your official size and weight?

Montavious Stanley: 6-2 ½ 320 (I'm working at getting down to 310)

Footballdialogue.com: Who was your role model growing up?

Montavious: My mother was the person I looked to.

Footballdialogue.com: In your estimation how does the team look this year?

MS: We look pretty good, working hard, playing against each other.

Footballdialogue.com: Any one game circled on the calendar?

MS: Taking the games and practice one day at time.

Footballdialogue.com: Best moment in your career to this point?

MS: When my daughter was born. Football wise: Beating NC when we played them.

Footballdialogue.com: The toughest class at Louisville has been?

MS: Juenville Justice

Footballdialogue.com: Toughest offensive linemen you've faced while at Louisville?

MS: Jason Smith (my teammate)

Footballdialogue.com: Who was your favorite NFL team growing up?

MS: Dallas Cowboys

Footballdialogue.com: Any nicknames of note?

MS: Big Man

Footballdialogue.com: Best place to eat near campus?

MS: Papa John's

Footballdialogue.com: Favorite movie of all time?

MS: Troy

Footballdialogue.com: Describe yourself in a few words?

MS: Hard working man. Trying to do the best for my family.

You've seen most of what I've seen - for the others...
Tore his pectoral muscle and missed the Gator Bowl. That probably will affect his combine effort. He had something like 45 tackles and 5 sacks last season - pretty good sack total for a big man. DE in his early years, played basketball in high school. I just like him more each time I find something new.

http://www.thehuddlereport.com/NickelPackage/profiles/MontaviousStanley.htmThe Huddle write-up as posted on one of the Giants fan forums.

Oshinowo is smart enough, I just haven't been that confident that he is 2-gap material.

 

[Art_Vandelay421]

Montavious Stanley

http://www.sportsdialogue.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=61&Itemid=50

You've seen most of what I've seen - for the others...
Tore his pectoral muscle and missed the Gator Bowl. That probably will affect his combine effort. He had something like 45 tackles and 5 sacks last season - pretty good sack total for a big man. DE in his early years, played basketball in high school. I just like him more each time I find something new.

http://www.thehuddlereport.com/NickelPackage/profiles/MontaviousStanley.htmThe Huddle write-up as posted on one of the Giants fan forums.

Oshinowo is smart enough, I just haven't been that confident that he is 2-gap material.

BOR, You make a great case for Montavious. Send it off to BB. I like what I read about him. Like Wilfork, he already has a child - shows a sense of responsibility..It is hard to pinpoint where he will go in the draft. I wonder if Branch knew him at Lousville. I know everyone says our D line is fine...it's fine when Seymour, Vince, and Ty are there...the backups...Hill hasn't shown me anything. Green...didn't seem to step up either. And, this could be it for Klecko..So, I feel to ignore our D-line this draft would be a mistake.

 

[dryheat44]

BOR, You make a great case for Montavious. Send it off to BB. I like what I read about him. Like Wilfork, he already has a child - shows a sense of responsibility..It is hard to pinpoint where he will go in the draft. I wonder if Branch knew him at Lousville. I know everyone says our D line is fine...it's fine when Seymour, Vince, and Ty are there...the backups...Hill hasn't shown me anything. Green...didn't seem to step up either. And, this could be it for Klecko..So, I feel to ignore our D-line this draft would be a mistake.

Ummm....a 21 year kid having a child shows a sense of responsibility? Not really. It does, however, force those who choose to into accelerated maturity.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

BOR, You make a great case for Montavious. Send it off to BB. I like what I read about him. Like Wilfork, he already has a child - shows a sense of responsibility..It is hard to pinpoint where he will go in the draft. I wonder if Branch knew him at Lousville. I know everyone says our D line is fine...it's fine when Seymour, Vince, and Ty are there...the backups...Hill hasn't shown me anything. Green...didn't seem to step up either. And, this could be it for Klecko..So, I feel to ignore our D-line this draft would be a mistake.

Suggesting Stanley at NT is trying to think outside the 'box' as it were. I don't have anything set in concrete yet, April 29 is a long way off and draft sites are just getting themselves warmed up. This is the time to throw out ideas and get counter arguments, there is no right or wrong for the fans - BB gets to shoulder that responsibility.

Green played in Seymour's place with a bum shoulder, I think he would have looked a lot better if Vince had kept his feet the same way he did at the end of the season. Hill just needs playing time to put what he's learned into practice so it becomes automatic and instinctive - he's in a rough spot for finding playing time. I enjoy Klecko and would like to see him succeed beyond earning a roster spot, we'll see what happens with him.

Stanley is a pick that thinks beyond 2006; we just don't know what Seymour will do. What we do know is the 3-4 is spreading - something to do with Super Bowl champions. There is a tremendous demand for NTs and big bruising LBs building and this draft is in short supply of each. As you and the Huddle Report note, no one knows where Stanley really falls in the draft, though all have him first day. This suggests they don't know where to project him, they're not confident of his competition, and they know he had surgery to repair a torn pectoral muscle in January. I would not expect him to lift well (if at all) at the Combine or Louisville's Pro-Day. This will also affect his shuttle and 40. Maybe he will slip, but you've got to like a guy who could play 3-4 DE with his pass rush and run stopping, as well as be a 3-4 NT. Hopefully he's married and building a family the right way, he came across well in that one interview.

I suggest him for consideration because I think Gabe Watson is too risky, Ngata will be unavailable, and 21 is too valuable to spend on a RB/WR/OG/LB or even a CB given who the top candidates are. If Lawson slips down BB will have a hard decision, but the gamble that Stanley pays off in the pros is stronger than the gamble on Lawson converting to OLB - even though I think he will do well there.

 

[dryheat44]

One guy who looks good from a distance is Dusty Dvoracek. High motor, 6'3", 300 lbs. Played extensively as a freshman. Does anybody know how serious his off-field troubles were, and if BB will stay away from him because of them?

 

[dryheat44]

One guy who looks good from a distance is Dusty Dvoracek. Does anybody know how serious his off-field troubles were, and if BB will stay away from him because of them?

Oh yes, the bar fight/alcoholism. Here's a few good reads. I wouldn't mind taking a chance on him.

http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=37811

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/sportsline/main9059799.shtml

 

[Ochmed Jones]

This draft is very deep through the first two rounds. Therefore I agree with Patchick's thinking, unless one of a specifically targeted group of players falls to the Pats at #21, then we should trade down. BB has proven a master of working the draft board, sliding up and down and into future drafts.

I could be very happy with her day 1 draft.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Oh yes, the bar fight/alcoholism. Here's a few good reads. I wouldn't mind taking a chance on him.

http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=37811

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/sportsline/main9059799.shtml

Good reads, makes me feel better about him as a person. 6'3" 300-ish, we have Mike Wright in that size range backing up everybody. Dusty's playing style in the Senior Bowl was penetrating, he may be strong enough for two gap, I wouldn't target him at this point. We'll see if anything in the Combine/Pro-Day results suggests he has any special athletic gift and watch for the write-ups that are still being prepared on some of the sites. I wish NFL.com would get their prospect profiles posted....

 

[nickw308810]

Good reads, makes me feel better about him as a person. 6'3" 300-ish, we have Mike Wright in that size range backing up everybody. Dusty's playing style in the Senior Bowl was penetrating, he may be strong enough for two gap, I wouldn't target him at this point. We'll see if anything in the Combine/Pro-Day results suggests he has any special athletic gift and watch for the write-ups that are still being prepared on some of the sites. I wish NFL.com would get their prospect profiles posted....

During the Senior Bowl practices Dusty looked like he was getting handled easily by the OL. Well maybe not easily, but he didn't seem as tough of a challenge for them as some of the other DL. Don't know what this means since it was just practice, but figured I would throw it out there.

 

[borisman]

pats mock draft

Just posting some mock drafts from other draft websites.

NFL Draft Countdown: 1) Demeco Ryans, 2) Richard Marshall

Draft Insiders: 1) D'Angelo Williams

NFL Draft Showcase: 1) Richard Marshall

GBN Report: 1) Demeco Ryans

Footballs Future: 1) Darnell Bing, 2) Dontrell Moore

Draft Connection: 1) Darnell Bing, 2) Kelly Jennings

Mel Kiper: 1) Laurence Maroney

Ourlads: 1) Alan Zemaitis

Draft Ace: 1) Mathias Kiwanuka

SI: 1) Darnell Bing

NFL Gurus: 1) Tye Hill

FF Toolbox: 1) Chad Greenway

Huddle Geeks: 1) Laurence Maroney

Inside the Eagles: 1) Marcedes Lewis (what? another TE, nyet)

Draft King: 1) Abdul Hodge

Hail Redskins: 1) Donte Whitner

Draft Gurus: 1) Tamba Hali

Draft Ace: 1) Tye Hill (is there two draft aces?)

3 votes for Bing
2 votes for Ryans, Maroney, Hill and Marshall (1 is in the 2nd rd)

I don't think Ryans is a good fit. He's more of a Colts/Bucs type player. He's good sideline to sideline but never seen him take on OL with much success.
Out of all those I like Greenway 1st. He will not be available after the first 12-14 picks.

77 days till the draft :singing:

 

[Art_Vandelay421]

Hey...nice summary. I was on one site that had a Maroney vs. Deangelo Williams vote and comment. The majority went with Williams - seems Maroney, although very fast projects to be more of a 3rd down style back, not a 25-30 carry a game back. I also read somewhere that Polian of Colts recently met with Maroney - interesting. I am not a Bing guy...but I love Marshall. However I don't see him lasting all the way to our pick in the 2nd round.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I've got no clue who the Pats should or shouldn't draft at this point. Right now its more "theory" than anything else for me.

For example - yes there is value throughout the draft for certain players.

But 6' 4" WRs and CBs with skills and speed usually aren't sitting around in the 4th round.

Undersized guys and tweeners that have helped made this team great - Bruschi, Givens etc... - are great. But there's only so much you can ask a 5' 9" CB or WR to do against taller competition.

Those guys with size speed and skills are sometimes available through FA for a huge premium and big chunk of the salary cap.

Getting them at #8 - #20 in the draft represents value for such players who can make a huge difference on offense and defense, getting those players relatively cheap for a few years.

If players like that can be had, I'd much rather trade up and give up some of the later picks who have value but collectively could never make a CB or WR taller or faster.