A guess at Willie's cap numbers

[Miguel]

2006 - $2.9 million
2007 - $3.9 million
2008 - $4.9 million

If one figures that Willie will be released after the 2007 season, the average cap hit over the 3 years would be $2.93 million and the average cap hit over the 1st 2 years would be $3.4 million.

Point of reference - Willie's 2005 cap hit was $3.8 million.

I am presuming that Willie got a $6 million signing bonus.

Make of what you will.

 

[BelichickFan]

Make of what you will.

I doubt Belichick wanted to commit money beyond 2006 and a good size signing bonus would do that. It's tough on the fans but I think Belichick is ready to move on.

 

[hwc]

Those seem like pretty big cap numbers for an outside linebacker who was having difficulty sealing the edge last season.

It comes down to simple economics, really. How much cap space do you invest in your linebackers? Keep McGinnest until he is 38 or keep Colvin and Vrabel (whose cap numbers are increasing).

Our base defense, including the front seven, stunk over the first half of last year. It wasn't until Belichick said "screw it" and went with a very aggressive style of play that the Pats could stop anybody. It is quite likely that some of the blame for that lies with McGinnest losing a step and not being useful in coverage or on running plays. We don't know...we don't grade the game film.

Or, look at it another way. Belichick has to start Vrabel and Colvin at outside linebacker. The are too good and their cap numbers are too high not be starting. So, McGinnest has to be a situtational player. An average of $3 million a year is a lot for a situational player, especially if (for example), Belichick sees value in a first round linebacker in the draft.

Frankly, I'm shocked that McGinest didn't retire at the end of t he year.

 

[Miguel]

On 1/24/2006 hwc wrote:
"The good news is that he is still playing at a high level, so the Pats can probably consider something like a two year extension or even more if they are willing to risk eating some bonus down the line."

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showthread.php?t=30287&page=2&pp=10

Not even two months later the very same player is being judged by hwc as "having difficulty sealing the edge last season" and is being partly blamed for the poor play of the front seven. One has to ask what did hwc meant by "still playing at a high level".

In January hwc implies that it would be a good idea to sign McGinest to a two-year or longer. In March it no longer is. In January McGinest is "still playing at a high level". In March McGinest should be a NFL retiree. It seems to me that this is another case of a former Patriot being denigrated.

 

[PATRIOTS-80]

I don't know, maybe hwc is trying to say that if BB doesn't think it was a good idea, then maybe what he (hwc) wrote in January wasn't on target. hehehehe

IMHO, Willie and Brown won't last forever, and you are going to have to replace them sometime. The question is when. Do you replace Willie now? Or at age 36? BB did this with Milloy and Law and it worked out, so I'm thinking that its a win-win. Pats get younger at LB, Romeo has somebody to teach his players the ropes for a year or 2 (almost like playing a coach).

 

[hwc]

On 1/24/2006 hwc wrote:
"The good news is that he is still playing at a high level, so the Pats can probably consider something like a two year extension or even more if they are willing to risk eating some bonus down the line."

Notice that I did not suggest back in January that the Pats consider a three year extension at nearly $12 million for a 34 year old player!

I had in mind something on the order of $3 million for 2006 and declining after that.

Notice also that I said "IF" they are willing to eat some bonus. Without looking at Pioli's cap models for the out years, I have no way of knowing if the Pats see themselves in a position to commit to cap dollars they know they will eat. For example, I don't know what it will take to sign Seymour and Branch. My guess is that Pioli has cap models for full rosters going out five years with ranges for each group of players (LBs, O-line, etc.) My guess is that those models show a ton of money invested in the defensive front-seven, with or without Willie McGinest.

McGinest is still a productive player, but not an every down player at this point in his career on a team with Colvin and Vrabel at OLB. He's a situational pass-rusher guy. I'd love to have him for 2006. Don't much care beyond that. I don't think it makes sense for the Pats to hang on too long and get old.

 

[patsfan55]

so youd rather pay kevin faulk that much against the cap?

bb and pioli are not perfect
and they make plenty of mistakes

i love the guys and praise them all the time, but they make mistakes
and its my priviledge as a fan to voice my opinion when i feel they make a mistake
dont get me wrong, im wrong sometimes with my opinions on what they do
but ill still make them
just like theyll still make moves

i personally feel that they made a mistake with not re-signing willie
our front seven is what kept us in it last year, and now it desperately needs another play-making linebacker

 

[Pats726]

IMHO, Willie and Brown won't last forever, and you are going to have to replace them sometime. The question is when. Do you replace Willie now? Or at age 36? BB did this with Milloy and Law and it worked out, so I'm thinking that its a win-win. Pats get younger at LB, Romeo has somebody to teach his players the ropes for a year or 2 (almost like playing a coach).

I think this might have been it..or smply part of it...or that to GET Willie, they'd have to go a step above, which is what Cleve did. Remember the circumstances of what happeend..Willie was basically on the back burner in Cleve until Edwards basically went back to Detroit after they thought they had him in Cleveland. THEY were not going to let it happen again..simply put..once WillieMcG was there and close..he was NOT returning unsigned. AND they HAD to throw more money to him to get him. Would the Patriots have been happy to have him back for a year or 2?? Yes...maybe not 3..I mean the last few years, he HAS talked about retirement..so?? WHY would they think of a longer contract?? It's sad that he has departed..but I understand and think fans should as well. ANd as was said it's a win-win...I mean how many posts were made in the last year or so about aging LBs??? Well..now that age average will be declining or not going up.

 

[Miguel]

Notice that I did not suggest back in January that the Pats consider a three year extension at nearly $12 million for a 34 year old player!

Noted. I will also note that you did not explain by what you meant by "still playing at a high level".

I had in mind something on the order of $3 million for 2006 and declining after that.

And yet less than 2 months later you are shocked that Willie did not retire.

Notice also that I said "IF" they are willing to eat some bonus......

Noted. I will also note that there was no "IF" in your statement that Willie is "still playing at a high level".

McGinest is still a productive player, but not an every down player at this point in his career on a team with Colvin and Vrabel at OLB. He's a situational pass-rusher guy. I'd love to have him for 2006. Don't much care beyond that. I don't think it makes sense for the Pats to hang on too long and get old.

You would love for a player that you were shocked that did not retire to be on the Patriots' 2006 roster. OK, then. Yes, I am now convinced that your post was not "if a Patriot, good player - not a Patriot, a bum".

 

[hwc]

And yet less than 2 months later you are shocked that Willie did not retire.

I thought that Willie would seriously consider retiring after his 4 sack performance in the playoffs. Just like I thought that Troy Brown would retire. Silly me, I forgot that nobody ever retires from the NFL until they are so broken down nobody will give them a roster spot.

To be honest, I thought the discussions with the Pats would be whether McGinest wants to go another year and that, if so, they would do some kind of deal that was basically year-to-year.

I'm surprised that McGinest jumped into free agency. I expected that, if he were to continue playing, doing a deal with the Pats would be pretty easy. Obviously, the Browns offering him a 3-year $12 million contract short-circuited that dynamic. C'est la vie.

If McGinest plans on playing until he is 37 or 40 or whenver, then it is fine for the Pats that he has decided to leave now. It's been a win-win career for the franchise and the player. When a 34 year old player ends his stint with the Pats having still played at a high level in his final year, what's to complain about? That's an ideal scenario.