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53-man projection + draft needs

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by rookBoston, Apr 8, 2012.

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  1. rookBoston

    rookBoston 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    #12 Jersey

    Here's the latest 53-man forecast...

    QB - Brady, Hoyer, Mallett
    RB - Ridley, Vereen, Woodhead, (Larsen/Fiametta)
    WR - Welker, Lloyd, Branch, (Ochocinco/Stallworth/Gonzalez), Edelman, Slater
    TE - Gronkowski, Hernandez, Fell
    OT - Light, Solder, Vollmer, Cannon
    OG - Mankins, Waters, Gallery
    OC - Connolly, Wendell

    DL - Wilfork, Deaderick, Love, Fanene, Brace, Pryor
    OLB - Ninkovich, Scott, Carpenter, Cunningham
    ILB - Mayo, Spikes, Fletcher, White, Koutouvides
    CB - McCourty, Allen, Arrington, Dowling, Moore, Cole
    S - Chung, Gregory, Brown, Barrett

    P - Mesko
    K - Gostkowski
    LS - Aiken

    Some uncertainty on the OL. This assumes neither Light nor Waters decides to retire. Also, there are rumors Koppen might still be back. Depending on how those decisions play out, we may want to spend a draft pick on a tall 300#er with good feet and long arms.

    To my own surprise, I actually believe that outside pass rush is not our top need. I rank it third after DL and DB. We have Nink, Scott, Carpenter, Cunningham and the chance of getting Carter back. Not an earth shattering crew, but there is youth and upside. It's enough to field a team. Better than our Tully Banta Cain years.

    More urgent, BB needs to find a way to replace and upgrade Shawn Ellis and Gerard Warren. Brace has not stepped forward, Pryor feels like a roster placeholder. Deaderick should be deeper on the depth chart than our de facto starter.

    The secondary is clearly missing an anchor, our own Ed Reed or a new Ty Law, someone who'll come up with the big play when we need it and share the leadership load with Chung. If McCourty re-asserts himself, that would be a huge step. But even so, one more playmaker would set this defense on a different plane.
     
  2. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    A fine assessment!

    DE is our greatest 2012 need. As you say, Deaderick shouldn't be the automatic starter. There is very little quality at DE in your projected 53.

    OL is clearly a 2013 need (isn't that what the draft is for?). We don't know about 2012, but we certainly expect to need replacements next year for Light, Waters and Gallery.

    And yes, we still need a top corner. We could use a safety, but the first 2 will be long gone, and Belichick will likely move on the corners over, even if we draft a safety in the late 3rd or later.
     
  3. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Nice job with that.

    So from this group who is most likely to be replaced by a player not on the team right now, whether it be a draftee, returning free agent, new veteran FA or undrafted free agent?

    The first positions/players that jump out to me are all on defense:
    • - DL (Brace, Pryor)
    • - S (Brown, Barrett)
    • - OLB (Carpenter, Cunningham)

    Obviously there will be others as well but those seem to be among the most likely candidates to not be on the week one roster.
     
  4. patfanken

    patfanken Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #91 Jersey

    Nice effort. Here's a few changes I'd make in CAPITALS


    QB - Brady, Hoyer, Mallett
    RB - Ridley, Vereen, Woodhead, 1 of (Larsen/Fiametta) VET FA
    WR - Welker, Lloyd, Edelman 2 of Branch, Ochocinco, Stallworth/Gonzalez)
    TE - Gronkowski, Hernandez, Fell
    OT - Solder, Vollmer, Cannon, FOURTH OT, either FA or draft pick
    OG - Mankins, Waters, Gallery.
    OC - Connolly,MCDONALD

    DL - Wilfork, Fanene Pryor, 2 of Brace/Deadrick/Love , ROOKIE DRAFT PICK
    OLB - Ninkovich, CARTER 2 of Scott, Carpenter, Cunningham, ROOKIE DRAFT PICK
    ILB - Mayo, Spikes, Fletcher, 1 of White/Kouitavitis
    CB - McCourty, Arrington, Dowling, 2 of Allen, Moore,Cole
    S - Chung, Gregory Barrett ROOKIE DRAFT PICK

    P - Mesko
    K - Gostkowski
    LS - Aiken
    ST - Slater

    Explanations:

    1. I have the feeling they REALLY like McDonald, which makes Wendall expendable
    2. Cannon can back up both G and T
    3 We keep only 5 WRs. 2 of the 4 vets in bold are out. You can make that 3 if we draft a WR in the first 3 rounds
    4. I'm sure that Carter will be re-sign. He also adds depth to the DL as a 4-3 DE
    5. We are NOT keeping more than one ST's ace/coverage ILB
    6. If we keep more than 9 DB's we will leave ourselves thin at either OL or DL
    7. We might keep both FB's and just go with the 3 RBs we have

    Observations -

    1. The first thing that popped out at me is that roster spots are going to be at a real premium this season. As it is, in my projection, we only add 3 rookies....and you know that that "ain't happening" I would be shocked to see less than 5 make this team....if we use all the picks

    2. For that reason I can't see us moving down to add picks in lower rounds. Normally BB would do something to get a day 3 pick or two to balance the draft, but THIS year, any more picks than 4 or 5 will just end up being camp fodder like back in 2007

    3. For that reason, I can easily see THIS being the year of the "trade up" or the "trade out" into next season. It makes no sense to have more draft picks that we have right now because as it is, its only likely that 3 or 4 will make the roster

    4. ....and for THOSE reasons there will be several veteran players who WILL NOT make this roster. Some damned good players are going to be let go before the end of TC. The Sharks WILL be circling.

    5. If I'm forced to name the 3 draft picks I'd put down Baron S, McClellin and Reyes/Thompson
     
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2012
  5. DW Toys

    DW Toys In the Starting Line-Up

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    Astute of you on the Draft numbers. A waste to pick up many more. Seems like he did that shopping in FA this year.

    Why is everybody so sure Branch is a lock? He is spiraling downwards. He no longer requires double coverage. In fact the oppositions lesser CB can cover him just fine. I say he doesn't make the Team. It makes no sense. He can't get open. At the end of the season Ocho was open more than he was. TB throws to the open man is a myth. TB will not throw to Ocho so I say he goes to. A roster space waste for perhaps a younger WR or I am sure the others can be capable backups they want Branch to be.
    DW Toys
     
  6. Elijah

    Elijah PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #11 Jersey

    I have this as our 53 going into the draft:

    QB (3): Hoyer, Brady, Mallett
    RB (4): Ridley, Vereen, Woodhead, Fiammetta
    WR (6): Edelman, Gonzalez, Slater, Welker, Branch, Lloyd
    TE (3): Hernandez, Fells, Gronkowski
    OL (9): Waters, Cannon, Wendell, Connolly, Gallery, Mankins, Light, Vollmer, Solder
    DL (6): Fanene, Deaderick, Love, Wilfork, Pryor, Brace
    DL/LB (4): Carter, Ninkovich, Scott, Cunningham
    LB (5): Mayo, Fletcher, Tarpinian, Spikes, White
    CB (6): Dowling, Arrington, Allen, Moore, McCourty, Cole
    S (4): Chung, Gregory, Barrett, Brown

    Italics means could be upgraded as a starter but worthy of a roster spot either way; bold means should probably not be on the roster at all.
     
  7. rookBoston

    rookBoston 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    #12 Jersey

    Because Brady loves him, he knows the system, can teach the system, and can make the catch when we need it. He's no worse now than what we had with David Patten in 2001. He's a great fifth option in a 5-wide with Welker, Lloyd, Gronk and Hernandez.
     
  8. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    rook's post was using the current roster.

    I see few disagreements in your post.

    OFFENSE
    1) I agree that a vet RB could win a roster spot, as a substitution or addition. I believe that you get this roster spot by reducing the DB's to 9.

    2) I agree that Branch is in competition with the rest, although I agree with rook that he is a heavy favorite for a roster spot.

    3) I agree that Light could retire to be replaced by a 4th OT.

    4) While I agree that McDonald should be considered. I disagree with both you and rook. I would not choose between Wendell and McDonald at this point.

    DEFENSE
    I read your post several times. I must have missed something. I believe that both you and rook have 6 DL's and 9 LB's. You have 9 DB's instead of 10.

    I believe that White makes the squad as the 4th ILB, and yes, the 4th ILB should be a ST specialist. I agree with rook that Koutovides has the 9th LB position at the moment. I think that it is unlikely that he will win the position. I don't think it matters whether the 9th OLB is labelled an ILB or OLB.

    I agree that we should have 5 position OLB's if we can them. As of now, we Ninkovich and Scott. I am far, far from awarding a likely roster spot to the unsigned/injured Carter, Carpenter or Cunningham. I agree with Carpenter and Cunningham at present, with the need to upgrade. I would give Koutovides the 5th OLB (the 9th LB) roster spot.
    I would cut the 10th db to clear a roster spot for Carter if we sign him.

    BOTTOM LINE
    The confusion comes when you sign Carter as an OLB. We need 9 OB's and 6 DB's in addition to Carter, who I would label as a DE or DE/OLB, our 16th front seven position. I am fine with THIS use of a roster spot instead of a 10th DB. However, we do need 25 roster positions on defense, including specialists like White or Koutouvides.


     
  9. everlong

    everlong Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #12 Jersey

    Patten went 51/749 in 2001 at 27 years old. He 2002 he was 61/824. 2003 he was hurt. 2004 44/800. That's a lot better than a 5th option or what Branch is right now. I agree with your premise just not you opinion on Patten.
     
  10. rookBoston

    rookBoston 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    #12 Jersey

    Disagree with putting Pryor ahead of Love and Deaderick on the depth chart. I see no scenarios where Deaderick and Love fail to make the roster, even if BB drafts 2 DTs early. They're young, cheap and reliable. Not a high ceiling, but BB loves a known quantity.

    Not so sure. First, Carter may not recover in time for the season. And then, you assume we will draft a rookie at OLB, which is much more a matter of fans' wishful thinking than anything BB has indicated he would do. The players coming in for visits are mostly DBs and a very few late round LBs.

    White is a lock as a ST and rotational option at LB. Koutouvites is replaceable, but it has to be someone who can play STs. I like Bobby Wagner as a nominee. This spot may not be ILB, e.g. if BB spends a pick at OLB or TE, Koutouvites may lose the spot to that player. Note, I did not list Tarpinian who I think BB has big plans for. Too soon to know.

    I agree with all of what you've said except #5. We've been talking for a while that drafting more than 4-5 players only works if some of them are going straight to IR... someone like Ryan Broyles, for example.

    I'm starting to be a bit dismayed at how over-drafted Barron has become in the last two weeks. If he goes as a top-15 pick, that's beyond my appetite for trading up. McClellin looks like a good fit for the scheme, but honestly don't think he'll be a significant upgrade over what we've signed in free agency. Reyes looks average to me. I far prefer Still and Thompson, and would consider taking them both to inject serious youth into our defensive front.
     
  11. patfanken

    patfanken Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #91 Jersey

    He also loved Patten, Givens, Brown and Moss, but when the time came for them to move on, Brady got over it real quick.
    So do all the other receivers except for Gonsales. Big deal
    The Pats pay good money to coaches who can "teach the system" Besides, like I said, most everyone on the roster already "knows the system"
    .Like in the last drive of the superbowl? :rolleyes: Yes I know that's not fair, but in the last half of the season, with the exception of a single game, Branch disappeared.
    That's just BS
    Better than Stallworth, Ocho, or a healthy Gonsales? I don't think so. You have a player whose skills are deteriorating, Any starting CB can take him out of the game by playing him physically We rarely see the soft zone coverage that he used to thrive in. He only plays one WR position, and no special teams. Now tell me again why you think he's a lock
     
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2012
  12. ay-yo

    ay-yo Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Offensive side of the ball is pretty straight forward. All starters are in place. Depending on personal opinion, we could use a WR or OL or both but only as a backup for the 2012 season. Wendell / McDonald will be a camp battle, perhaps both make it. WR spots will be a camp battle as well. Light and Waters retirements could hurt us but we all want to see them back.

    Defensively things are much, much muddier.

    I think these guys making the roster

    DL - Wilfork, Deaderick, Love, Fanene - 4
    OLB - Ninkovich, Scott - 2
    ILB - Mayo, Spikes, Fletcher - 3
    CB - McCourty, Arrington, Dowling, Moore - 4
    S - Chung, Gregory - 2
    total - 15
    note: I have White making roster but I don't count him as a LB

    Then you have this group.

    DL - Brace, Pryor, Cunningham, Harrison - 4
    LB - Carpenter, Koutouvides - 2
    CB - Allen, Cole, - 2
    S - Brown, Barrett - 2

    None are anything special and any could be beat out by draft picks. My draft strategy would be to take the best defensive players. Just get 6 guys to replace 6 of the above. Also need at least 1 interior DL, 1 43DE / 34OLB and 1 S. Other 3 should just be BDPA.
     
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2012
  13. Avenger

    Avenger Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    #11 Jersey

    I think that Carter starts the season on the PUP list, possibly Gonzalez too.
     
  14. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    OFFENSE
    As you indicated, Belichick might choose to draft a WR or OL. Certainly, they would needed for 2013. Drafts are usually focused on the future.

    DEFENSE - YOUR CORE
    I agree with your core 16. As others have noted in the past, this group is ready to play. The only NEED is an additional DE. I look for a free agent (Carter?) or a very early draft choice to start.

    DEFENSE - THE CONTENDERS
    I would note that Cunningham is a LB. Harrison has almost zero chance to make the roster. Also, Pryor is an almost lock if he is healthy. LB Carter (drafted last year) should be added as a contender.

    Belichick might be quite satisfied with Allen, Cole (or top gunner) and Barrett.

    YOUR STATEMENT OF DRAFT NEED - FIRST 3

    I agree with your top three needs.

    Congrats for focusing on the need for 2 DL's: a DT and DE/OLB. While I agree on the need for a safety, we might very well draft a corner, planning to move on of the corners to safety (and perhaps even to add a free agent safety)

    HOW TO DRAFT AFTER THE FIRST THREE
    You indicate that we should draft the BDPA. I suggest the Belichick will draft the BPA or even the BVA (best value including trading into 2013). I certainly wouldn't complain if we drafted an OL in addition to the 3 needs mentioned above. I also wouldn't mind an ILB like Hightower.

     
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2012
  15. Fencer

    Fencer Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    #12 Jersey

    Some comments.

    • Good point of departure.
    • I assume you mean M. Carter.
    • A. Carter is the first obvious upgrade to M. Carter, but perhaps not at the time of the Opening Day roster crunch.
    • Different people would pick a different 2 of Gonzalez/Branch/Ocho/Stallworth.
    • S. Brown shouldn't be on the roster at all.
    • Pryor should.
    • The McDonald/Wendell point above is a good one.
    • Since Bedard thinks Light actually will retire, Light is at least a risk to retire.
     
  16. Sciz

    Sciz PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Supposedly the Pats really like both Wendell and McDonald. I think both stick, probably as the #2 and #3 centers and #4 and #5 guards.
     
  17. Mystery Pats Fan

    Mystery Pats Fan Banned

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    If they draft, or sign, any additional corners or they may already have one - Arrington will be gone.
     
  18. Sciz

    Sciz PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Why the heck would the Pats get rid of Arrington?

    In 2009, he led the team in ST tackles despite only playing 8 games, and then gave the Pats a slight glimmer of hope when he recovered a muffed punt against the Ravens in the playoffs, and helped them finally get some points on the board.

    In 2010, he came out of nowhere to start most of the season when playing Butler proved futile. He still managed to be 3rd on the team in ST tackles, picked the best regular season game to have a ridiculous pick-6, and is the guy who ran in the blocked FG for a TD against the Dolphins.

    In 2011, he led the NFL in interceptions, was 3rd on the team in ST tackles, started 14 games after both Dowling and Bodden got hurt, and ended the season by helping completely shut down Cruz in the Super Bowl.

    If Arrington isn't one of the primary corners this season, then he's going to team up with Slater to form the best gunner duo in the NFL. And if they do ever need him on defense, then we know he can be decent there too. He may not have a huge role on defense, but he wasn't supposed to in 2010 or 2011 either, and his ST contributions make him worth keeping around until he's needed on defense.
     
  19. Avenger

    Avenger Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    #11 Jersey

    I think we will go 4 safeties 5 corners. Having only 4 corners puts us at risk of using Edelman as a corner in case of injury, but who knows? Maybe Edelman will be the 5th corner as a utility player.
     
  20. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    ???????

    We carry 9-10 defensive backs. Arrington is certainly worthy to be the 9th DB. Of course, the reality is that he may start at CB or nickel (really a starting position).

    Presuming TWO draftees in the first 3 rounds, and not counting Arrington, these are the only locks

    CB: McCourty, Dowling, Moore, draftee
    S: Chung, Gregory, draftee

    BOTTOM LINE
    There would be 2-3 open roster spots, with special teamers getting preference. Arrington would then be the #8 DB. He is a top special teamer. Also, I would note that it reasonably likely that Belichick will not have a rookie start or even get major reps. In that case, one of the corners would get reps at safety.





     
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