2014 Ravens 1-1 Outside Their Div/AFC South/NFC South

[shmessy]

Print up the NE Pats Div Champs hats and t shirts.

Baltimore has won 2 of 3 post season games in Foxboro and they should have won the 3rd game too. Foxboro has been their 2nd home and the Ravens match up well vs the Pats.

That's all that matters.

So you're expecting a big game from Ray Lewis and Ed Reed.

And Flacco with torch Steve Gregory and Sterling Moore.

 

[primetime]

So you're expecting a big game from Ray Lewis and Ed Reed.

And Flacco with torch Steve Gregory and Sterling Moore.

Going to be tough stopping Ray Rice

"History" doesn't matter at all except to the narrative builders like ESPN; individual football games (and sports matches in general) have an outcome highly subject to random chance. In football playoffs there's no smoothing of probability over multiple games like in other sports.

Based on this season's sample, the Ravens are an objectively far less talented team than the Patriots, so the balance of probability is on the Patriots side. That doesn't mean the Ravens can't win, but it also doesn't mean that "history" has anything to do with it (let alone being "all that matters").

 

[lillloyd]

I think you guys will take the Ravens.

That said I wouldn't put much stock in records, not so much because they 'don't matter' but rather because in the playoffs it's all about specific matchups. We'd all agree that NE is a vastly better team than the NYJ, but they present matchup problems for NE based on their very good front 7.

FWIW Pitt had a stellar record against playoff and winning teams (6-1 I think?). But their OL matched up poorly with Balt's front 7, and now they're going home. Their record against other decent teams meant far less last night, than their specific OL matchup with Balt's front 7.

 

[Triumph]

So you're expecting a big game from Ray Lewis and Ed Reed.

And Flacco with torch Steve Gregory and Sterling Moore.

Whats the weather forecast look like?

Can you start a new thread about that?

 

[Triumph]

I think you guys will take the Ravens.

That said I wouldn't put much stock in records, not so much because they 'don't matter' but rather because in the playoffs it's all about specific matchups. We'd all agree that NE is a vastly better team than the NYJ, but they present matchup problems for NE based on their very good front 7.

FWIW Pitt had a stellar record against playoff and winning teams (6-1 I think?). But their OL matched up poorly with Balt's front 7, and now they're going home. Their record against other decent teams meant far less last night, than their specific OL matchup with Balt's front 7.

But, but, but the Pats beat far better teams than the Ravens have this season.

Give the 8 points and pick NE.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Patriots should be the favorites as they are better in every phase of the game...

Most phases yes, but EVERY?

How about rushing the passer?

 

[Oswlek]

Last nights game. And that game looked and felt a lot like the 2012 game against the Pats...

Does that mean I get to pick any game I want for the Patriots?

 

[JMC00]

But, but, but the Pats beat far better teams than the Ravens have this season.

So it's ok to talk about games that happened 2 and 5 years ago but it's not ok talk about the Pats having the tougher schedule this year or how last time these 2 teams met was in Baltimore and a worse Pats team dominated them?

 

[shmessy]

Whats the weather forecast look like?

Can you start a new thread about that?

I'm sure it's very warm and sunny where the Jets personnel are right now.

 

[shmessy]

So it's ok to talk about games that happened 2 and 5 years ago but it's not ok talk about the Pats having the tougher schedule this year or how last time these 2 teams met was in Baltimore and a worse Pats team dominated them?

That's what the Jets fans have consistently done.

They'll "always have" that one playoff game in January 2011........

 

[Ring 6]

Print up the NE Pats Div Champs hats and t shirts.

Baltimore has won 2 of 3 post season games in Foxboro and they should have won the 3rd game too. Foxboro has been their 2nd home and the Ravens match up well vs the Pats.

That's all that matters.

The players that take the girls on Saturday are all that matters not the ones who played in other games.

 

[mosi]

Does that mean I get to pick any game I want for the Patriots?

No just the playoff games!

 

[102 Pat]

I read last night something on here or twitter (I can't remember which one) that the Raven's are like the Boogeyman to Patriot fans...

 

[mgteich]

So does this reasoning apply to the Pats OL as well? Or just the ravens? I mean the Pats OL had a few games where they struggled (GB ans SD) and another 2 where they struggled in the 1st half and then the opposing defense couldnt stop them in the 2nd half (Miami and NY) But according to several people on here Pats OL doesn't have a chance based on those games. Yet according to you regular season doesn't matter now. If we can't say how the ravens struggled against Ten, SD, Jax, Hou, and Cle in their last games 7 then on the flipside people shouldnt talk about the OL because when relatively healthy there was a stretch before injuries where they were very good.

You are correct.

We don't know how well our OL will play against BALT. The OL is capable of being good enough for us to blow out BALT.

 

[mgteich]

I read last night something on here or twitter (I can't remember which one) that the Raven's are like the Boogeyman to Patriot fans...

Perhaps a team that is in the playoffs every year shouldn't have any concerns about a team that has beaten them 3 times in 3 recent playoff games.

 

[PATSNUTme]

Doesn't matter what the seed or regular season record. It comes down to match ups. I think the Ravens defense matches us well against offense if we try to run at them. The hurry up short passing game will work well and open up the running game.
I think the Patriots defense matches up well against the Ravens offense. Just don't get any PI calls when Flacco goes long.

I would have rather had the Steelers win and play Denver and the Colts win and play us. Better matchup's for us but that did not happen but I'm confident will come out with solid game plan next Sat.

 

[West Philly Patriot]

Don't see Ed Reed or Ray Lewis, but I see the actual very good players they have that will present the challenge a playoff game usually entails against a physical D.

 

[shmessy]

Perhaps a team that is in the playoffs every year shouldn't have any concerns about a team that has beaten them 3 times in 3 recent playoff games.

Which team has done that?

 

[shmessy]

Doesn't matter what the seed or regular season record. It comes down to match ups. I think the Ravens defense matches us well against offense if we try to run at them. The hurry up short passing game will work well and open up the running game.
I think the Patriots defense matches up well against the Ravens offense. Just don't get any PI calls when Flacco goes long.

I would have rather had the Steelers win and play Denver and the Colts win and play us. Better matchup's for us but that did not happen but I'm confident will come out with solid game plan next Sat.

What it comes down to is this:

Worse matchup for the Pats next Saturday

Better matchup for the Pats in the long haul IF they are to face a seattle D in the SB.

No pain, no gain.

 

[mgteich]

Which team has done that?

my bad.

The two questions remain.

Will our OL be able to give Brady much time?

and will

our defensive backs be able to stop the Smith's?
===========

As was said weeks ago by other posters, I think that BALT is the worst matchup we could have. The only other relatively poor matchup was PITT with a healthy Bell. That being said, I certainly agree with the bettors that we should be a 7-5 favorite in this game.

To put it another way, I think that we should be better than 7-5 favorites at home against any other AFC team.