100% Participation in Practice Thursday

[Sicilian]

This. This is definitely good news, but I'm not going to get too excited til I see our only decent corners--whose presence frees up McCourty to be our best safety--starting and performing well. Either one of these guys could be more banged up than we know, but Talib's hip worries me the most. Sort of reminds me of last year when everyone thought Gronk was good to go in the SB after a two week layoff when in fact he wasn't ready at all.

I'm having a hard time remembering now (I've probably blocked out most of that whole experience), but I don't think Gronk was practicing for most of the two weeks leading into the Super Bowl. The fact that Talib and Dennard are practicing so early on is a much better sign IMO.

 

[JMarr]

We dominate turnover differential, leading the AFC in fewest fumbles, in fewest interceptions, while forcing the most fumbles in the NFL, and while making the most interceptions in the AFC

And that's the rub.

All your other points are fair, but turnover differential is one of the things you have the least control over, yet it usually influences the outcome of games the greatest. Brady can control his ball security to an extent, but defenders are going to be putting a hat on the ball every time it's put in Ridley's or Vareen's hands. And take-aways should be harder to come by than they have in the RS, especially if Talib and Dennard aren't 100%. You just can't say that this trend will necessarily continue into the playoffs IMO.

So far the Pats been lucky in the turnover dept. But in a playoff game, balls simply not bouncing your way can send you home quickly, no matter how many other things you might have going for you.

 

[JMarr]

I'm having a hard time remembering now (I've probably blocked out most of that whole experience), but I don't think Gronk was practicing for most of the two weeks leading into the Super Bowl. The fact that Talib and Dennard are practicing so early on is a much better sign IMO.

I agree and think you're right about Gronk missing a lot of practices. Keeping my fingers crossed that Talib isn't going to be slowed down too much. We definitely need an answer for AJ Green, Andre Johnson, and definitely Demaryius Thomas if/when we see them.

 

[The Gr8est]

And that's the rub.

All your other points are fair, but turnover differential is one of the things you have the least control over, yet it usually influences the outcome of games the greatest. Brady can control his ball security to an extent, but defenders are going to be putting a hat on the ball every time it's put in Ridley's or Vareen's hands. And take-aways should be harder to come by than they have in the RS, especially if Talib and Dennard aren't 100%. You just can't say that this trend will necessarily continue into the playoffs IMO.

So far the Pats been lucky in the turnover dept. But in a playoff game, balls simply not bouncing your way can send you home quickly, no matter how many other things you might have going for you.

Vereen lost a slippery ball, but I don't recall any other problems with ball security. It may apply to Ridley, but I'm not sure Vereen will be singled out for putting a helmet on the ball.

 

[The Gr8est]

You're spending way too much time at Jets Insider.

Or the game day threads here.

 

[The Gr8est]

Somebody tell me what will go wrong?

The list of negatives is pretty small:
1) Gost had a subpar year
2) KO return seems weak, but most are touchbacks anyway
3) We may have to travel to Denver
4) The NFL and sports media LOVE Peyton Manning and would like nothing better than having him get league "Comeback Player of the Year", "NFL MVP", and "Superbowl MVP".

..........

 

[HowardRoark]

Vereen lost a slippery ball, but I don't recall any other problems with ball security. It may apply to Ridley, but I'm not sure Vereen will be singled out for putting a helmet on the ball.

I agree with JMarr. While minimizing your own team's turnovers is important to the differential, the forcing of turnovers is important as well. Unfortunately, that is largely random, which makes a team that relies on turnovers noticeably weaker.

 

[Sicilian]

the forcing of turnovers is important as well. Unfortunately, that is largely random, which makes a team that relies on turnovers noticeably weaker.

turnover differential is one of the things you have the least control over, yet it usually influences the outcome of games the greatest. Brady can control his ball security to an extent, but defenders are going to be putting a hat on the ball every time it's put in Ridley's or Vareen's hands. And take-aways should be harder to come by than they have in the RS, especially if Talib and Dennard aren't 100%. You just can't say that this trend will necessarily continue into the playoffs IMO.

So far the Pats been lucky in the turnover dept. But in a playoff game, balls simply not bouncing your way can send you home quickly, no matter how many other things you might have going for you.

See, this is a theory I'll just never subscribe to. Fumble recoveries have an element of luck/randomness to them (that funny shaped ball can make some wild hops), but in general having more people near the ball is a sign of scheme, coverage, pursuit, hustle, etc. Also, to recover a lot of fumbles, you have to force a lot of fumbles, which is not random IMO.

INTs aren't random either. Even the ones that look like horrible mistakes by the QB often have a disguised coverage or a CB bait involved. Sure, there are some gifts, but not enough to discount them having such a good number of picks.

Overall, you can say you can't rely on turnovers, and of course you'd love to stop teams in between turnovers as well, but some fans are acting like the fact a drive ended in a turnover actually means that drive failed because they didn't force a punt. I'll never understand it.

 

[patchick]

See, this is a theory I'll just never subscribe to. Fumble recoveries have an element of luck/randomness to them (that funny shaped ball can make some wild hops), but in general having more people near the ball is a sign of scheme, coverage, pursuit, hustle, etc. Also, to recover a lot of fumbles, you have to force a lot of fumbles, which is not random IMO.

INTs aren't random either. Even the ones that look like horrible mistakes by the QB often have a disguised coverage or a CB bait involved. Sure, there are some gifts, but not enough to discount them having such a good number of picks.

Amen. And it's DEFINITELY not random when the Patriots have led the AFC in turnover ratio for 3 seasons in a row, each season by a huge margin. They are far and away the most consistent team in football in this regard, with a double-digit net each year.

 

[neuronet]

Talk me down from this incredible confidence for at least getting to the Super Bowl, and likely winning it all. It seems strange.

Gronk is playing with one arm, and we saw how well it went last year when he wasn't at 100%. :bricks:

 

[RobertWeathers]

Gronk is playing with one arm, and we saw how well it went last year when he wasn't at 100%. :bricks:

Hes got 9 more days of bone-fusing and muscle strengthening that he can do.

Plus he caught two balls running full speed as opposed to catching two balls in the SB running like he had a anchor attached to his ankle. I'll take that in a heartbeat.

 

[PlainOldEd]

I'm beginning to channel my inner Off-the-Grid and starting to logically think that this is our year, despite the voices of pessimism that naturally also reside in my head.

...

I agree with everything you said, but there is that part of me who likes it when things don't look so good. I know this team isn't supposed to get too high on itself, but I still prefer the underdog role.

I'm sure BB will be using plenty of ESPNs coverage of the unstoppable Bronco for motivation over the coming weeks.

 

[NewFeep]

Hes got 9 more days of bone-fusing and muscle strengthening that he can do.

Plus he caught two balls running full speed as opposed to catching two balls in the SB running like he had a anchor attached to his ankle. I'll take that in a heartbeat.

Amen! Big, big difference between two injuries. I'll take the Gronk running full speed with a weakened arm over the alternative every day and thrice on Sunday!

 

[RobertWeathers]

Amen! Big, big difference between two injuries. I'll take the Gronk running full speed with a weakened arm over the alternative every day and thrice on Sunday!

The TD catch on Sunday is the type of play that opens up the entire offense.

The concern is when he stays in to pass & run block and some goofball taking a karate chop to the arm...

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Amen. And it's DEFINITELY not random when the Patriots have led the AFC in turnover ratio for 3 seasons in a row, each season by a huge margin. They are far and away the most consistent team in football in this regard, with a double-digit net each year.

Note that they lost those SB games where the Jints managed to recover their fumbles

 

[NewFeep]

The TD catch on Sunday is the type of play that opens up the entire offense.

The concern is when he stays in to pass & run block and some goofball taking a karate chop to the arm...

Well, it is football at the end of the day. But I will add that broken bones usually are stronger because of the break after you heal up. Certainly true in my life and I broke several in my youthful hockey mayhem days!!

He looked great running on that TD route.

 

[Brady2Gronk]

The TD catch on Sunday is the type of play that opens up the entire offense.

The concern is when he stays in to pass & run block and some goofball taking a karate chop to the arm...

Well if he is still wearing that cast, only an idiot would karate chop it. They would hurt themselves more than they hurt Gronk.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

In 20-20 hindsight Gronk was tentative and needed that game to get his game legs back. Now he's got 2 weeks of "normal" practices to get further in the groove.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Well if he is still wearing that cast, only an idiot would karate chop it. They would hurt themselves more than they hurt Gronk.

Its a softcast that hes been wearing- similar to a shinpad. Not allowed to wear armor on the arm or anything "club" like.

 

[BradyBranch39]

100% Participation in Practice Thursday

Except Edelman. Sob.