Hypothetical-Where Would You Draft Jaylon Smith?

6th. I would have gone 2nd or 3rd until 2016 was wiped out. He's a great player but losing the first year is a killer.

supafly said:

My thoughts, exactly.

NE is the kind of team who can get away with a one year stash--no problem, although if we're going to continue losing first round picks and missing in seconds/thirds, I'm going to change my mind.

I'd consider him in the 2nd/3rd, and I'd bet money someone will snatch him there, if not sooner.

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That's what I've been reading. Most predictions have him gone by the 3rd round.

Depending on how they feel the nerves are regenerating, I would personally go with any of the first four picks. Personally feel that he is the type of talent that is worth the risk.

TommyBrady12 said:

Easely hardly played. It was a wasted pick thanks to his injured knees. I might use a 6th or 7th rounder on smith.

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Not every pass gets completed. But that doesn't mean you stop throwing the ball.

People get silly about the draft and thinking about hits and misses. The reality is everyone hits and everyone misses. It's not about batting 1.000, which is impossible, but about making your team better. Sometimes your draft pick doesn't work out, but just because you miss on one doesn't mean you stop trying.

Yes, Easley didn't work out due to injuries. Ditto Dowling. But concluding that we should avoid all injury risks also means passing on Gronk, who missed his entire junior season with a serious back injury.

So you can't hit on every single draft pick, but that doesn't mean you should fear making a pick because a different one failed before.

Dominique Easley has kinda soured me on the prospect of taking premium prospects with knee injuries. A little more seriously, though: if it was 'just' a torn ACL like Easley had, it wouldn't phase me too much and I'd be bullish on taking Smith if we have a chance to. The guy can play, and if he makes it back at 100% the idea of what Belichick/Patricia could cook up with him, Collins and Hightower is very intriguing.

But apparently his knee damage was a lot more extensive than that--nerve damage, etc--and if that's the case I wouldn't even consider drafting him before the end of the 6th. Wouldn't be surprised if he's off the draft board entirely. If he's going to miss all of this year, I just don't think you can reasonably project that a guy a year and a half removed from football, with possible nerve damage in his knee, is going to amount to anything. He's going to miss a lot of really valuable development time. At that point, it's not just about recovery, it's about the opportunity cost of being off the field at the time when you're supposed to be improving the most.

s3antana5757 said:

I would love for NE to be all over this kid. Once again, he should've been a top 5-10 pick. Think Luke Kuechly.

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Luke Kuechly was the best college linebacker to ever play the game and there was very little probability he did not become a superstar. He's a future Hall of Famer and no one who watched him in college, when he would know where the play was going before the player getting the ball did, would have doubted that if you told him.

Smith is more of a Derrick Johnson, a guy who (assuming no lasting effects from injury) could be a Pro Bowl guy for a decade. I'd take that in the top 10 picks, though, let alone the 2nd or 3rd.

I also worry about keeping Collins and Hightower though I'm more sanguine about it than previous posters. Still, this would be some nice insurance. With a need a year off, and the Patriots luxury of lots of picks with relatively few holes to fill on the roster, I could easily see Smith as a 2nd rounder. It would be, as Patriots picks have gone in various degrees of success, much less of a shock than Tavon Wilson or Sebastian Vollmer in the 2nd, or Duron Harmon, Stevan Ridley, Jake Bequette, Ellis Hobbs, or Jordan Richards in the 3rd

convertedpatsfan said:

Not every pass gets completed. But that doesn't mean you stop throwing the ball.

People get silly about the draft and thinking about hits and misses. The reality is everyone hits and everyone misses. It's not about batting 1.000, which is impossible, but about making your team better. Sometimes your draft pick doesn't work out, but just because you miss on one doesn't mean you stop trying.

Yes, Easley didn't work out due to injuries. Ditto Dowling. But concluding that we should avoid all injury risks also means passing on Gronk, who missed his entire junior season with a serious back injury.

So you can't hit on every single draft pick, but that doesn't mean you should fear making a pick because a different one failed before.

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There are risks and there are bad risks. Easley had what - two acl tears prior to even being drafted?

Tough call. Maybe a 3rd. I'd have a hard time using the 2nd rounder since it' the first pick the have. That said, BB doesn't worry about that sort of thing.

TommyBrady12 said:

There are risks and there are bad risks. Easley had what - two acl tears prior to even being drafted?

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Considering his injury history at Oklahoma, it's amazing Adrian Peterson is still playing football. If Gronk didn't become the player he has and struggled with a bad back, it'd be easy to have a "saw it coming" mentality.

And again, Easley was a 1st round pick, and if even half the reports are true, would probably still be on the team if he had been all in on the Patriot Way. Taking Smith with a possible 3rd rounder doesn't have equal risk involved.

i think he is too light to play LB for BB. I think he is 223lbs which is not what BB like at lb. he might be able to put on some weight but i truly believe he is too thin. that plus the injury is too much of a risk.

TommyBrady12 said:

There are risks and there are bad risks. Easley had what - two acl tears prior to even being drafted?

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I agree with the first part. And maybe even the second part. I'm just saying risks vs. bad risks depends on more than just the outcome, and I think you're only focused on that. The methodology matters too.

We always draft late based on our ranking, so the only way to get access to higher-quality players is through trades or taking risks on some players who slip for various reasons. Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't. But if Easley is healthy, we have no prayer of coming close to drafting him. It was the opportunity to add a top-10 talent at the end of the first round, and apparently we weren't the only ones interested in him there.

The other thing to remember is that all of the reports seem to indicate it had more to do with attitude than his knees. There were some warning signs of that as well but again, it was a calculated risk, not just a drunken roll of the dice.

It's obvious it didn't work out. But that doesn't mean it wasn't worth the risk.

Boston Boxer said:

i think he is too light to play LB for BB. I think he is 223lbs which is not what BB like at lb. he might be able to put on some weight but i truly believe he is too thin. that plus the injury is too much of a risk.

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I think we're starting to see a trend with many more teams using these "light" linebackers as the hybrid safety/lb BB starting experimenting with years back. Look at Mark Barron, he was drafted as safety in the top 10 and was a huge bust for Tampa. Rams traded for him, put him at weakside LB, and BOOM, apparently a 6'2", 220lb former safety is now worth a 5 year,$45 million contract after Tampa Bay couldn't figure out what to do with him.

The nerve damage is the critical piece. You can rehab muscles and ligaments but some nerve damage never regenerates and there just nothing that can be done. While I would still take a flyer on him in the sixth I don't believe he will be there.

Simple Jack's Brother said:

I think we're starting to see a trend with many more teams using these "light" linebackers as the hybrid safety/lb BB starting experimenting with years back. Look at Mark Barron, he was drafted as safety in the top 10 and was a huge bust for Tampa. Rams traded for him, put him at weakside LB, and BOOM, apparently a 6'2", 220lb former safety is now worth a 5 year,$45 million contract after Tampa Bay couldn't figure out what to do with him.

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I agree. This is also why we are seeing the Jumbo line formations, as many defense's now are too light to handle it, the Colts being the best example of this as there was literally nothing they could do to stop the Patriots when they went big. This is also my hope for what the two TE offense the Patriots will run this season will do for their run game. Bringing in Bennett may well do much more to rejuvenate the Patriots run game than any OL prospect could have.

TommyBrady12 said:

Doninique easeley: no

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Rob gronkowski: yes

Belichick is critical of players who make repeat mistakes (Tavon Wilson) but continues his
mistakes drafting or claiming on waivers injured players. My hope is that another team takes
that option away by drafting Smith in picks 1 to 59. Of course, Belichick has the option to trade
away multiple picks to draft him higher than pick 59.

Boston Boxer said:

i think he is too light to play LB for BB. I think he is 223lbs which is not what BB like at lb. he might be able to put on some weight but i truly believe he is too thin. that plus the injury is too much of a risk.

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Thats what he weighed in on the combine, but his playing weight is in between 235-240lbs.

Id pick him up with one of our seconds, hes that damn good. He reminds me of Collins. He can play Mike, wlb, rush the passer, cover the slot/te. He can do it all.

His injury history is nothing like Easley's. Easley blew out both his knees in college. Smith had one terrible injury. The major concern with him is the nerve damage.

Anywhere in-between the 4th and 7th round I would be good with.

Maybe BB will do something like trade down on pick #60 (300 pts) and pick up, for example, a high 3rd and a 4th.

Draft Smith with one of the extra picks to lower the risk.

Profit.