Did we really have 3 of the top 6 leaders in dropped passes?

Ok, slightly misleading title. But if you go here:

Dropped Passes - 2013 - NFL Season Statistics

Sort by drop % and then look at the top players with 50 or more targets:

Reggie Bush - 80 Targets - 11.3% drop rate
Davon Bess - 86 Targets - 10.5% drop rate
Shane Vereen - 69 Targets - 10.1% drop rate
Tavon Austin - 60 Targets - 10.1% drop rate
Kenbrell Thompkins - 70 Targets - 10% drop rate
Aaron Dobson - 72 Targets - 9.7% drop rate


Is this site accurate? If so that's quite an opportunity for improvement there, to put it gently. I imagine Vereen's drops came on long passes to him split out wide which are low % plays, but this all came up in a convo on reddit about Dobson's hands and I don't remember being too impressed by them this year.

Ack! Danny Woodhead at 1.2% makes it painful. Vereen 10.1% did have the wrist issue though.
Note that TEs run in the 1-2% drop range.

Kudos to TFB for playing through all this chaos

PatsWickedPissah said:

Ack! Danny Woodhead at 1.2% makes it painful. Vereen 10.1% did have the wrist issue though.
Note that TEs run in the 1-2% drop range.

Kudos to TFB for playing through all this chaos

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Some of Vereen's were infuriating. There was at least 2 times on major third down plays where they ran him on a wheel route out of the backfield, there was a defender within 15 yards, Brady lobbed it to him, and he just had bricks for hands. I remember there was one against Carolina that would have pretty much sealed the game and he blew it

dizi24 said:

Some of Vereen's were infuriating. There was at least 2 times on major third down plays where they ran him on a wheel route out of the backfield, there was a defender within 15 yards, Brady lobbed it to him, and he just had bricks for hands. I remember there was one against Carolina that would have pretty much sealed the game and he blew it

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Perhaps because half of his left hand was almost as hard as a brick.

This happens when you depend on three rookie wideouts and focus on a receiver who was catching one-handed.

I don't know why this is a surprise. We were force feeding two rookies and by the time they got settled with the routes and calmed down, they were both hurt. Vereen was playing with a cast a lot (most?) of the time.

Most of the information you need and context (which stats don't provide) can be derived by watching the games.

For a team that prides itself on sound fundamentals, this is an unacceptable situation.

fnordcircle said:

Ok, slightly misleading title. But if you go here:

Dropped Passes - 2013 - NFL Season Statistics

Sort by drop % and then look at the top players with 50 or more targets:

Reggie Bush - 80 Targets - 11.3% drop rate
Davon Bess - 86 Targets - 10.5% drop rate
Shane Vereen - 69 Targets - 10.1% drop rate
Tavon Austin - 60 Targets - 10.1% drop rate
Kenbrell Thompkins - 70 Targets - 10% drop rate
Aaron Dobson - 72 Targets - 9.7% drop rate


Is this site accurate? If so that's quite an opportunity for improvement there, to put it gently. I imagine Vereen's drops came on long passes to him split out wide which are low % plays, but this all came up in a convo on reddit about Dobson's hands and I don't remember being too impressed by them this year.

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These are the full #s for all targeted players in 2013.

Player, Receptions, Drops, Targets, Targets %, Drop %
Josh Boyce - 9, 2, 19, 47.40%, 10.50%
Brandon Bolden - 21, 3, 29, 72.40%, 10.30%
Shane Vereen - 47, 7, 69, 68.10%, 10.10%
Kenbrell Thompkins - 32, 7, 70, 45.70%, 10.00%
Aaron Dobson - 37, 7, 72, 51.40%, 9.70%
Stevan Ridley - 10, 1, 12, 83.30%, 8.30%
Julian Edelman - 105, 8, 151, 69.50%, 5.30%
Michael Hoomanawanui - 12, 1, 19, 63.20%, 5.30%
Danny Amendola, - 54, 4, 83, 65.10%, 4.80%
Rob Gronkowski - 39, 1, 66, 59.10%, 1.50%
Matthew Mulligan - 2, 0, 3, 66.70%, 0.00%
LeGarrette Blount - 2, 0, 5, 40.00%, 0.00%
Austin Collie - 6, 0, 11, 54.50%, 0.00%
James Develin - 4, 0, 4, 100.00%, 0.00%

Observer said:

For a team that prides itself on sound fundamentals, this is an unacceptable situation.

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I would keep in mind the post before yours by RayClay.

shmessy said:

I would keep in mind the post before yours by RayClay.

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Relying on rookies who weren't ready and a RB who wasn't healthy doesn't make it an acceptable situation.

what would be really helpful is if this list also included video of all the drops they had.

Not all drops are equal in the eyes of the viewer.

Obviously we had some really bad ones early in the season but i think by the end of the year it was less an issue of drops and more an issue of injuries.

Yes we did. But remember 2 of those guys were rookies.

Vereen had a few big drops as in some deep bombs he should have had if i remember correctly.

In Dobson's case about half of his drops came in his first game of his season.

JMC00 said:

In Dobson's case about half of his drops came in his first game of his season.

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I think most if not all came in the first 5-6 games. But he was injured in the back half of the season

No, but it does give us a reasonable expectation that the situation won't be repeated.

Armchair Quarterback said:

Relying on rookies who weren't ready and a RB who wasn't healthy doesn't make it an acceptable situation.

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Sciz said:

Perhaps because half of his left hand was almost as hard as a brick.

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While your point is obviously true, Sciz, it should be noted that Vereen continued to have the dropsies once his soft cast was removed as well.

I suppose it's quite possible that he may not have fully gotten used to playing with/without out. Maybe it "felt" like it was still there due to having had it for so long, or something? Who knows.

Hopefully it will be a bit different next year. Either way, he's still a huge weapon moving forward. I think he has the potential to snag 50-60 passes myself, under reasonable circumstances at our other positions.

50-60 catches from the 3rd down RB position isn't really a high bar. Vereen caught 47 last year and Bolden caught 21 as his backup.

I would expect at least 50-60 from Vereen this year. As was suggested, the issue is drops.

supafly said:

Hopefully it will be a bit different next year. Either way, he's still a huge weapon moving forward. I think he has the potential to snag 50-60 passes myself.

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dizi24 said:

Some of Vereen's were infuriating. There was at least 2 times on major third down plays where they ran him on a wheel route out of the backfield, there was a defender within 15 yards, Brady lobbed it to him, and he just had bricks for hands. I remember there was one against Carolina that would have pretty much sealed the game and he blew it

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One early on in the Denver game as well.

mgteich said:

50-60 catches from the 3rd down RB positions isn't really a high bar. Vereen caught 47 last year and Bolden caught 21 as his backup.

I would expect at least 50-60 from Vereen this year. As was suggested, the issue is drops.

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Vereen caught 47 in a year where we didn't have many decent receiving options, so I'm not quite as convinced as you that he'll definitely be topping much more than 60.

Woodhead snagged 40 his last year here (2012) when we had better receiving threats, and Faulk had something in the high 50's the year Brady was hurt and Cassel was doing things a bit unconventionally in 2008.

I feel that something around 55-60 is reasonable to assume myself, under "reasonable" receiving and quarterbacking circumstances. It's possible that he ends up with more, but that may point to injuries or a lack of production from our WRs/TEs again (much like Woodhead's 76 this year with SD and their limited options/production outside of rookie Keenan Allen).

As we'll all agree--as long as the team goes far, we won't care too much "how" they specifically do it.

Vereens # of catches will depending on how healthy the will be this year...always seems to miss 6+ games a year and i don't expect that to change until i see it.

He only played in 8 games and had 47. He plays in 16 and i can bet he will be in the 60 range...maybe more. Next year it looks as if we won't have many options again. Gronk will be back but that seems to be it for WRs with the $$ we have (right now at least)