TheGodInAGreyHoodie
Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
- Joined
- Nov 12, 2007
- Messages
- 6,621
- Reaction score
- 1
I have concluded that “strength of schedule” is a really bogus measure of determining how difficult a teams schedule actually is, because the more a team wins the weaker the schedule becomes.
For example the New England Patriots strength of schedule is .469 based on an opponent record of 120-136 and the Miami Dolphins strength of schedule is .539 based on an opponent record of 138-118.
But here is the problem: of the 136 loses the Patriots opponents had 19 of them came from the Patriots and of the 138 wins on the Dolphin opponents schedule 18 come from Dolphin loses.
Lets say we play a little what if... We change the outcome of 15 games... Miami goes 16-0. Now the Dolphin opponent record would be 117-139 instead of 138-118 giving them strength of schedule of .457.
Likewise if we have NE lose 16 games then the Patriots opponents record would be 142-114 or .554.
The reason the Dolphins strength of schedule appears so much harder than the Patriots is not that the Dolphins played better teams, it is because the Dolphins lost and the Patriots won.
A better measure would be not to count the teams own games.
If we do that the SOS would be as follows:
Miami 117-117 .500
NE 120-114 .521
BTW under this measure Colts still have a more difficult SOS than the Pats.
Colts new method: 128-106 .547 instead of 132-124 .516 (old method)
For example the New England Patriots strength of schedule is .469 based on an opponent record of 120-136 and the Miami Dolphins strength of schedule is .539 based on an opponent record of 138-118.
But here is the problem: of the 136 loses the Patriots opponents had 19 of them came from the Patriots and of the 138 wins on the Dolphin opponents schedule 18 come from Dolphin loses.
Lets say we play a little what if... We change the outcome of 15 games... Miami goes 16-0. Now the Dolphin opponent record would be 117-139 instead of 138-118 giving them strength of schedule of .457.
Likewise if we have NE lose 16 games then the Patriots opponents record would be 142-114 or .554.
The reason the Dolphins strength of schedule appears so much harder than the Patriots is not that the Dolphins played better teams, it is because the Dolphins lost and the Patriots won.
A better measure would be not to count the teams own games.
If we do that the SOS would be as follows:
Miami 117-117 .500
NE 120-114 .521
BTW under this measure Colts still have a more difficult SOS than the Pats.
Colts new method: 128-106 .547 instead of 132-124 .516 (old method)