Reiss on Wolf’s draft philosophy

[Ivan]

I'd say the development side is more important as you can find talent through the draft, free agency, or trades and none of it matters if you aren't coaching/developing correctly.

The draft is as much about talent replacement as it is about finding top end talent if not more. You need to be bringing in enough young talent to replace the inevitable loss and attrition to injury and free agency.

And even if you do all that perfect you still need the QB.

This is actually what got me interested n football to begin with, and the same with the Draft. How do you put all of the pieces together to create a Championship caliber team that contends consistently. And it’s also the reason I don’t believe in the “ quick fix” model which never works. A good team can win a Super Bowl, if everything goes just right for them, but becoming a great franchise/team takes much
much more than that, as you have to put all the pieces in place in place in every area to be great for a long time.

 

[venecol]

I don't know about Wolf's philosophy but Groh's is "You want to get faster," Groh explained. "Just like if you want to get tougher, you'd better get tough guys. You want to get faster, you'd better get fast guys.". (about Thornton from SI)

I think Thornton & Strong were Groh recommendations (since Bill is still responsible). Groh bragged about them incessantly.

 

[Ivan]

Ivan. Bottom line is that there has been consensus among scouts that Daniel's weakness is accuracy for intermediate MOF routes. This is a critical skill to have in the NFL.
He has a high ceiling but I fear he could be boom or bust. Injury concern with his frame is for real.
Maye or McCarthy are safer picks.

Sam. Bottom line is that you are so desperate to knock Daniels that you are making **** up and talking about his “ articulation.” You have lost all credibility on this subject.

 

[Stu Pidassle]

This is actually what got me interested n football to begin with, and the same with the Draft. How do you put all of the pieces together to create a Championship caliber team that contends consistently. And it’s also the reason I don’t believe in the “ quick fix” model which never works. A good team can win a Super Bowl, if everything goes just right for them, but becoming a great franchise/team takes much
much more than that, as you have to put all the pieces in place in place in every area to be great for a long time.

You are correct, there are no quick fixes for the team. I hope the powers that balance the urgent need to turn things around ASAP with a longer term view that will ultimately lead to competing for super bowls. I hope the team takes a page from 2001 and allocates some amount of FA money to bring in veteran leadership to help create the culture to develop the young players. These guys do not need to be front line starters to add value. Get the star players in the draft to control costs.

For reference here is the 2001 FA class - cornerback Terrell Buckley, guard Mike Compton, linebacker Bryan Cox, fullback Marc Edwards, quarterback Damon Huard, linebacker Larry Izzo, receiver David Patten, linebacker Roman Phifer, defensive end Anthony Pleasant, running back Antowain Smith, and linebacker Mike Vrabel.

 

[VJCPatriot]

In fairness to them Strange is an exceptional athlete, and they had lost Thuney and needed to protect Jones from pressure up the middle,

It was an incredible reach then. It's still a bad reach now. And to be the fairest BB created that HOLE by trading away Thuney. So there's really no defending the Front Office from that blunder. They compounded a mistake by making a bigger mistake on top of it.

Even Cole Strange himselve never expected to be picked in round 1.

Per Strange, the interaction between Cole and Patriots head coach Bill Belichick on the phone was as follows:

"[Cole] said, 'Sir, I don't mean to be disrespectful at all, but I've gotta know because I've got some crazy friends. Is this a prank?’ The guy said, 'Hold on just a second.' And then Bill Belichick got on the phone and of course, unless you've been under a rock for the last 20 years, you know Bill Belichick's voice.

Article here.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I think Thornton & Strong were Groh recommendations (since Bill is still responsible). Groh bragged about them incessantly.

I believe this is part of why Groh got demoted to scouting and Wolf was promoted to Player Personnel. They basically swapped positions in the hierarchy.

 

[KCSVEN]

Ivan. Bottom line is that there has been consensus among scouts that Daniel's weakness is accuracy for intermediate MOF routes. This is a critical skill to have in the NFL.
He has a high ceiling but I fear he could be boom or bust. Injury concern with his frame is for real.
Maye or McCarthy are safer picks.

McCarthy is in no way a safer pick than Daniels. Daniels throws elite passes at the 30-50 yard range, he has elite running ability. He has a just above Justin Fields floor.
McCarthy is way less of a prospect. He throws on the run well, not great in the pocket, can't put touch on passes (Daniels throws and very catchable ball), has some elusiveness but not half the runner Daniels is. What does he do that is elite?

The knock on Daniels is not necessarily MIF intermediate routes. Look at the touchdown pass against Alabama. He's shown he can do it, the knock is he does not have elite arm strength, thus he tends to wait for separation over the middle instead of using anticipation of the receiver coming open.
It's hard to see this without all-22 but on all the plays I watched that you could see I saw 3 plays where he had a receiver in a window over the middle and did not trust his arm to fit it in. Of course, He ran for an average of 30 yards on those 3 plays. Will he risk an interception more often to learn how to throw with anticipation? Does he need to with such elite running ability? It's an open question, if he had all his talent and Drake Maye arm he'd be the best prospect in a very long time. It's all about is his arm strength enough above average to make the throws needed at the NFL level. It's the ONLY question with him, thus the high floor.

Injury risk is higher with running QB's but this gets way overstated nowadays. Daniels weighs more than McCarthy.
QB's are protected now.
For the # of runs Daniels had he only had a few where he really got hit, he does get out of bounds and down, just needs to do a slightly better job of it. He is so slippery he rarely takes a big hit running.

IMO Daniels is probably the safest pick, Maye is closer to the boom or bust pick, has all the physical traits but just hasn't been consistently accurate, Williams is a wild card in being the most talented but the most questionable intangibles. McCarthy is a second-round prospect that succeed at like a 3% success rate, definitely the riskiest pick in round 1.,

With all that said My order is Williams, Maye, Daniels and those are the only 3 legitimate first round prospects. Bid drop after that. I'd take any of the 3 as they are all pretty close IMO. They all have questions they need to answer but they all do something at an elite level.

 

[Ivan]

It was an incredible reach then. It's still a bad reach now. And to be the fairest BB created that HOLE by trading away Thuney. So there's really no defending the Front Office from that blunder. They compounded a mistake by making a bigger mistake on top of it.

Even Cole Strange himselve never expected to be picked in round 1.

Per Strange, the interaction between Cole and Patriots head coach Bill Belichick on the phone was as follows:


Article here.

It was definitely a serious reach. As I said in another post, it’s the first time I didn’t know who their first round pick was.

 

[VJCPatriot]

McCarthy is in no way a safer pick than Daniels. Daniels throws elite passes at the 30-50 yard range, he has elite running ability. He has a just above Justin Fields floor.
McCarthy is way less of a prospect. He throws on the run well, not great in the pocket, can't put touch on passes (Daniels throws and very catchable ball), has some elusiveness but not half the runner Daniels is. What does he do that is elite?

The thing that scares me about McCarthy is that he reminds me a lot of Mac Jones. Here's a guy who doesn't show elite athleticism or elite playmaking abilities and then he goes and wins a national championship. Then based off that hype now he's considered a 1st round pick by some when he wasn't even in the conversation before. I just don't buy it. He doesn't jump off the tape and if anything that makes him an even bigger risk of a bust than the other top QB prospects who have been projected at the top for a long time now.

 

[Sam Bam Cunningham]

McCarthy is in no way a safer pick than Daniels. Daniels throws elite passes at the 30-50 yard range, he has elite running ability. He has a just above Justin Fields floor.
McCarthy is way less of a prospect. He throws on the run well, not great in the pocket, can't put touch on passes (Daniels throws and very catchable ball), has some elusiveness but not half the runner Daniels is. What does he do that is elite?

The knock on Daniels is not necessarily MIF intermediate routes. Look at the touchdown pass against Alabama. He's shown he can do it, the knock is he does not have elite arm strength, thus he tends to wait for separation over the middle instead of using anticipation of the receiver coming open.
It's hard to see this without all-22 but on all the plays I watched that you could see I saw 3 plays where he had a receiver in a window over the middle and did not trust his arm to fit it in. Of course, He ran for an average of 30 yards on those 3 plays. Will he risk an interception more often to learn how to throw with anticipation? Does he need to with such elite running ability? It's an open question, if he had all his talent and Drake Maye arm he'd be the best prospect in a very long time. It's all about is his arm strength enough above average to make the throws needed at the NFL level. It's the ONLY question with him, thus the high floor.

Injury risk is higher with running QB's but this gets way overstated nowadays. Daniels weighs more than McCarthy.
QB's are protected now.
For the # of runs Daniels had he only had a few where he really got hit, he does get out of bounds and down, just needs to do a slightly better job of it. He is so slippery he rarely takes a big hit running.

IMO Daniels is probably the safest pick, Maye is closer to the boom or bust pick, has all the physical traits but just hasn't been consistently accurate, Williams is a wild card in being the most talented but the most questionable intangibles. McCarthy is a second-round prospect that succeed at like a 3% success rate, definitely the riskiest pick in round 1.,

With all that said My order is Williams, Maye, Daniels and those are the only 3 legitimate first round prospects. Bid drop after that. I'd take any of the 3 as they are all pretty close IMO. They all have questions they need to answer but they all do something at an elite level.

Excellent and well written take.

 

[Ivan]

McCarthy is in no way a safer pick than Daniels. Daniels throws elite passes at the 30-50 yard range, he has elite running ability. He has a just above Justin Fields floor.
McCarthy is way less of a prospect. He throws on the run well, not great in the pocket, can't put touch on passes (Daniels throws and very catchable ball), has some elusiveness but not half the runner Daniels is. What does he do that is elite?

The knock on Daniels is not necessarily MIF intermediate routes. Look at the touchdown pass against Alabama. He's shown he can do it, the knock is he does not have elite arm strength, thus he tends to wait for separation over the middle instead of using anticipation of the receiver coming open.
It's hard to see this without all-22 but on all the plays I watched that you could see I saw 3 plays where he had a receiver in a window over the middle and did not trust his arm to fit it in. Of course, He ran for an average of 30 yards on those 3 plays. Will he risk an interception more often to learn how to throw with anticipation? Does he need to with such elite running ability? It's an open question, if he had all his talent and Drake Maye arm he'd be the best prospect in a very long time. It's all about is his arm strength enough above average to make the throws needed at the NFL level. It's the ONLY question with him, thus the high floor.

Injury risk is higher with running QB's but this gets way overstated nowadays. Daniels weighs more than McCarthy.
QB's are protected now.
For the # of runs Daniels had he only had a few where he really got hit, he does get out of bounds and down, just needs to do a slightly better job of it. He is so slippery he rarely takes a big hit running.

IMO Daniels is probably the safest pick, Maye is closer to the boom or bust pick, has all the physical traits but just hasn't been consistently accurate, Williams is a wild card in being the most talented but the most questionable intangibles. McCarthy is a second-round prospect that succeed at like a 3% success rate, definitely the riskiest pick in round 1.,

With all that said My order is Williams, Maye, Daniels and those are the only 3 legitimate first round prospects. Bid drop after that. I'd take any of the 3 as they are all pretty close IMO. They all have questions they need to answer but they all do something at an elite level.

Right on the money. I’m fine with any of the top 3,QB’s, and all 3 have parts of their game they are going to have to work on, but if anything Daniels ability to take the coaching he received the past two seasons and improve significantly over that time should be seen as a plus imo, and not the knock some here are trying to paint it as. He became the best player in college football,i playing in the toughest conference in college football, at the toughest position in football. If he can continue to progress with pro coaching he’s going to be a really good pro QB.

 

[Ivan]

The thing that scares me about McCarthy is that he reminds me a lot of Mac Jones. Here's a guy who doesn't show elite athleticism or elite playmaking abilities and then he goes and wins a national championship. Then based off that hype now he's considered a 1st round pick by some when he wasn't even in the conversation before. I just don't buy it. He doesn't jump off the tape and if anything that makes him an even bigger risk of a bust than the other top QB prospects who have been projected at the top for a long time now.

Ouch.

That had to hurt.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

The thing that scares me about McCarthy is that he reminds me a lot of Mac Jones. Here's a guy who doesn't show elite athleticism or elite playmaking abilities and then he goes and wins a national championship. Then based off that hype now he's considered a 1st round pick by some when he wasn't even in the conversation before. I just don't buy it. He doesn't jump off the tape and if anything that makes him an even bigger risk of a bust than the other top QB prospects who have been projected at the top for a long time now.

When you look at video, though, he's not similar to Mac at all. He's got a rocket arm, is athletic and throws very well on the run. I don't see Mac at all when I watch McCarthy. The main risk is that he's just turned 21 and has some physical maturing to do to, so for a full year he has to sit, then hope he's ready for year 2. Some very good QB's haven't taken the reigns until year 3.

I don't see many people saying we should draft McCarthy ahead of the big 3, but rather should we trade down to fill more needs, then draft him in the 8-13 range. Would we rather have (a) Daniels, or (b) McCarthy + additional high picks to add OT's and WR's?

Also I'd add that a month ago nobody was ranking Daniels this high either.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

He was pretty young for these openings and I’m not sure I’d look at some of these organizations as the most impressive evaluators of executive talent.

Agreed, but when you get rejected 4 times and your own organization will not publically announce a promotion, you have to wonder to some degree.

 

[upstater1]

I share the same concern, cousin. It was all BB's fault is a ridiculous claim. BB didn't fly around evaluating players. So what we are told, to cover for these logical criticisms, is that the draft evaluation grading system is changing now that BB is gone.

Do you see how convenient that is? The one person that ruined everything is gone, the grading system that was out of date has been updated, and the same people who gave us the last 4 years of terrible draft evaluations (I think the 2023 draft will turn out to be very good) are still there but they really were amazing all along. It was the grading system that was bad. No worries!! Everything is fixed.

By the way there is even better news. The reason we are last is player cash spending was due to BB too, and he is gone. So now we are going to burn cash because the big bad wolf is gone. Isn't that great??

Cousin, you and I, are very very lucky. Fire BB and change the draft grading system, and all the problems are fixed. All of the same people that have always been here were held back and now the wolves (Wolf anyway) are being released. We are so damn lucky.

If you look at the NFL average, you're doing well if you find 3 players in a draft. 4 is an absolute bonus. I'm not referring to 3 good players, but guys that are starting and/or platooning.

Looking back, the last 4 drafts have been better than average as far as the NFL goes. It was the previous 4 drafts that were lower than average, but there too you see a lot less picks. 40 picks between '20-'23 and 31 picks between '16-'19.

 

[moosekill]

Play young players and lock up the better ones.

My two biggest frustrations with BB.

I said here years ago that if I were a promising college WR, the last place I’d want to go is New England. I still maintain the biggest problem wasn’t who they were drafting, but how they wouldn’t develop those guys.

If you are all in when every year it really becomes tough to develop young players. It is really easy to develop young players when you suck. Answer me this, you have 2 players and a chance to win the superbowl this year. One is a second year player who has never played, but looks like he might be good, one is a vetran who is still better than the second year player, but not by much. Who do you play? The people who argue we should have taken Lamar Jackson in the draft, he would have sat behind Tom Brady for at least two years, rather than start right away. Would he be what he is now?

 

[50-yard-line]

If you are all in when every year it really becomes tough to develop young players. It is really easy to develop young players when you suck. Answer me this, you have 2 players and a chance to win the superbowl this year. One is a second year player who has never played, but looks like he might be good, one is a vetran who is still better than the second year player, but not by much. Who do you play? The people who argue we should have taken Lamar Jackson in the draft, he would have sat behind Tom Brady for at least two years, rather than start right away. Would he be what he is now?

I'm thinking more like 2020, when they were out - why not line up the two rookie TEs and the young WRs and gameplan the ballto them constantly, maybe with Stidham throwing it? You're out - see what you've got going forward!

 

[1960Pats]

That was one of the reason I chose the players I did. Giving those second contracts early didn't mean no more contract issues.

All I'm saying is that they still got rid of them at some point and in some cases got nothing in return.

But that was yesterday and yesterday's gone. Let's move on to more current news. I wonder how Bob Skywalker is going to save the Patriots from Darth Belichick's evil ways. Can he save the team like he saved football?

 

[1960Pats]

The way the front office and coaching staff were assembled is a bit unusual. There is a lot that needs to be played out. I am trying to take an open minded approach and hope that everyone has been chosen based on their football knowledge as opposed to their willingness to take input from ownership.

I don't think coaching is as important to a team's success as player evaluations and we saw that with Bill. In the end his great coaching couldn't overcome the lack of talent.

I like having ex-Pats players as coaches but the risk of them being Kraft yes-men is a real possibility. All we can do is keep our fingers crossed.

 

[upstater1]

I don't think coaching is as important to a team's success as player evaluations and we saw that with Bill. In the end his great coaching couldn't overcome the lack of talent.

I like having ex-Pats players as coaches but the risk of them being Kraft yes-men is a real possibility. All we can do is keep our fingers crossed.

Talent gets you regular season wins. Then they get to the playoffs and coaching matters a lot. It's because many of the playoff teams have a lot of talent. So what team gets over the hump? If you look at all the great QBs (Manning, Rodgers, Brees, Rivers, Josh Allen) it's not necessarily that. Brady and Mahomes make it seem like that's the reason. But if you look at what Andy Reid did in this year's Super Bowl, it's unfathomable that hardly anyone mentions his brilliance. He absolutely outcoached Shanahan.