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It’s not too complicated, the top two wild card spots will most likely go to whichever team doesn’t win the AFC North between Baltimore/Cincinnati and to the Chargers. So it comes down to the last slot, where the Pats would be jockeying with Miami. If they go 2-1 with a win against Miami and Miami goes 1-2, they’re tied - there’s no head to head tiebreaker because they both beat each other once so it then goes to the other tiebreakers. They’re both 2-2 in division right now so NE winning head to head in this game gives them the advantage. If NE beats MIA and BUF then they win the tiebreaker with a better divisional record. If they beat CIN and MIA but lose to BUF, and MIA loses to NE and NYJ but beats GB, NE still wins the tiebreaker. However, if MIA loses to GB and NE but beats NYJ then you fall down a rabbit hole of deeper tiebreakers.I think a few other games need to fall the Pats way, too, with them going 2-1 and Miami going 1-2, in order for the Pats to get in.
But yeah, the gist is that if the Pats finish 3-0, they're in. If they finish 2-1, they need some results to fall their way with the Dolphins, Jets, and Chargers. If they take the route of going 2-1, that one loss cannot be to Miami.