Patriots defense leads league in opponents' yards per point allowed

[RobertWeathers]

To me, a better metric would be "minutes per point allowed" or something similar to that. The value of giving up more yards while giving up few points is that you are shortening the game. So if you mesure how long on average the opponent have to possess the ball before they score and then the average lenght of possession, you can have a good mesure, IMO. It isn't a single metric, but both together tells a more complete story. Points per possesion could do the trick I guess, but it doesn't mesure your ability to shorten the game.

Least # of points per play is also a telling metric.

With the exception of two years (05 and 08), since 2003 they are always in the top 10.

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Opponent Points per Play on TeamRankings.com

 

[FourierSeries]

People are starting to get way too obsessive about every little defensive stat. The team will rank well in some metrics, and poorly in others, based on their gameplan/scheme from week to week.

Pats are 6-1, are #4 in PPG allowed, and the offense has been playing incredibly well for the most part since Brady's return. STs have generally been on point too, with the exception of a few hiccups.

Does anyone dispute the fact that the Pats are the most complete team in the league at the moment?

 

[TennisBallHead]

I appreciate the effort, but you go too far when you compile stats like this.

What about "yards per 2nd down on Sundays in Winter where the temperature is between 15 and 38 degrees"?

 

[Ring 6]

i wouldn't. as i stated originally, this stat doesn't make sense to me (as a measure of defensive prowess).

It shouldn't, it should be taken with other stats, and considered.

Here is another example.
People are screaming around here about 3rd down and not being able to get off the field.
So lets really look at what that means.

Top 3 in 3rd down conversions percentage
Miami
Tampa
GB

They allow 4.3 conversions per game

The Patriots are 21st. They allow 5.6 per game. So that is 9 more conversions in 7 games that they allowed, compared to the top 3rd down defenses, and they are considered incompetent on 3rd down around here.

Here is the problem
The Pats allow 15.3 points and 351 yards
Miami 22.7/367
Tampa 26.5/350.7
GB 20.5/314

So by playing a style that doesn't mean sell out to stop every 3rd down, Belichick accepts allowing some conversions, which just put them back in position to have to convert again, and again, rather than allowing big plays.
Compared to Miami, that is a difference of 52 points allowed so far this season in the same number of games.
Compare to Tampa its 52 and we have played one more game.
Compared to GB is 16 points fewer allowed in one more game.

So the next time we face a 3rd and 5 and you see a 6 yard slant or out completed and the DB behind tackling the catch, remember that we are losing the battle in order to win the war. You simply cannot take away everything.

 

[PatsBoy12]

Belichick said last week (I think it was last week) that the best measure of a Defense was "Points Allowed."

So, since I know diddly squat about the game in comparison to him, I've got to accept that.

But, I worry that a D that's giving up as many yards as are the Patriots is a D that could be vulnerable as the season wears on. But, Belichick has a "gotcha" against me on that one (Surprise, Surprise!), because if they start giving up more points, then he'd no doubt say that the D is no longer playing as well as it was.

Since I can recognize an argument that I'm not going to win, in the end, I just have to say "In BB I trust."

Agreed. Third down still concerns me. They were very good in the red area against Pittsburgh, though. Big Ben would likely have changed the complexion of that game, but I'm sure the defensive game plan would have been different had he played anyway.

 

[ChessToCheckers]

The Defense is fine. We have the best record in the league and relatively few injuries thus far. A win in Buffalo would close out this first half of the season with us in an enviable position. Enjoy the ride, everybody!

 

[bbobbo]

It shouldn't, it should be taken with other stats, and considered.

Here is another example.
People are screaming around here about 3rd down and not being able to get off the field.
So lets really look at what that means.

Top 3 in 3rd down conversions percentage
Miami
Tampa
GB

They allow 4.3 conversions per game

The Patriots are 21st. They allow 5.6 per game. So that is 9 more conversions in 7 games that they allowed, compared to the top 3rd down defenses, and they are considered incompetent on 3rd down around here.

Here is the problem
The Pats allow 15.3 points and 351 yards
Miami 22.7/367
Tampa 26.5/350.7
GB 20.5/314

So by playing a style that doesn't mean sell out to stop every 3rd down, Belichick accepts allowing some conversions, which just put them back in position to have to convert again, and again, rather than allowing big plays.
Compared to Miami, that is a difference of 52 points allowed so far this season in the same number of games.
Compare to Tampa its 52 and we have played one more game.
Compared to GB is 16 points fewer allowed in one more game.

So the next time we face a 3rd and 5 and you see a 6 yard slant or out completed and the DB behind tackling the catch, remember that we are losing the battle in order to win the war. You simply cannot take away everything.

i think we're in agreement. @Patsfanin Philly was citing this single statistic to make the case for the patriots being the stingiest defense in the league, which i didn't think was a good measure (hence my counter-examples).

for what it's worth, i'm on the side of points allowed being the single most important statistic, so the yards allowed doesn't bother me for the most part (i do still swear at the screen when the other team keeps converting 3rd and long in the 4th quarter).

 

[RobertWeathers]

i think we're in agreement. @Patsfanin Philly was citing this single statistic to make the case for the patriots being the stingiest defense in the league, which i didn't think was a good measure (hence my counter-examples).

for what it's worth, i'm on the side of points allowed being the single most important statistic, so the yards allowed doesn't bother me for the most part (i do still swear at the screen when the other team keeps converting 3rd and long in the 4th quarter).

Agreed. It's points allowed. BB has also said 3rd down and red zone efficiency are important.

but....

For those of us who are trying to understand the "why" and the "how" 2nd level stats help. What it also tells us that there are a few different ways to reach success.

For example, the 1985 Bears allowed 20.88 yards per point. 2016 Pats allow 23 yards per point. That doesn't necessarily mean the 2016 Pats D is better than the 85 Bears D. It just means that both defenses make the offense work for points. If you go and drill into the 85 Bears red zone % , 3rd down D, qb hurries, comp % against, etc, you will see that their style was much more attack/pressure oriented and teams didn't have a lot of chances to make a chunk play because they a) never had the ball b) never had the time

 

[brdmaverick]

My stats teacher would tell us "Stats lie and liars use statistics."

 

[Tony2046]

It shouldn't, it should be taken with other stats, and considered.

Here is another example.
People are screaming around here about 3rd down and not being able to get off the field.
So lets really look at what that means.

Top 3 in 3rd down conversions percentage
Miami
Tampa
GB

They allow 4.3 conversions per game

The Patriots are 21st. They allow 5.6 per game. So that is 9 more conversions in 7 games that they allowed, compared to the top 3rd down defenses, and they are considered incompetent on 3rd down around here.

Here is the problem
The Pats allow 15.3 points and 351 yards
Miami 22.7/367
Tampa 26.5/350.7
GB 20.5/314

So by playing a style that doesn't mean sell out to stop every 3rd down, Belichick accepts allowing some conversions, which just put them back in position to have to convert again, and again, rather than allowing big plays.
Compared to Miami, that is a difference of 52 points allowed so far this season in the same number of games.
Compare to Tampa its 52 and we have played one more game.
Compared to GB is 16 points fewer allowed in one more game.

So the next time we face a 3rd and 5 and you see a 6 yard slant or out completed and the DB behind tackling the catch, remember that we are losing the battle in order to win the war. You simply cannot take away everything.

Dude you are killing it today. Good stuff.

 

[Ring 6]

i think we're in agreement. @Patsfanin Philly was citing this single statistic to make the case for the patriots being the stingiest defense in the league, which i didn't think was a good measure (hence my counter-examples).

for what it's worth, i'm on the side of points allowed being the single most important statistic, so the yards allowed doesn't bother me for the most part (i do still swear at the screen when the other team keeps converting 3rd and long in the 4th quarter).

Careful about that last comment, because I think you would find we have allowed very few 3rd and long conversions in the 4th quarter. However, Ian will have that info for us soon.
Perception is not always backed up. For example we have only allowed an average of 5 1/2 3rd down conversions per game all season. And we have played 76 defensive drives.

Drives 76
TDs 12
FGs 8
Miss FG 4
Turnover 9
Punt 33
Other 10 (turnover on downs, end of half/game)
Ist downs 141
3rd down conv 39
3rd down stops 56

So less than 1 of 6 drives ends in a TD and about 1 in 4 ends in points.
3 of 4 end with punt turnover or 'other'.
The typical drive has less than 2 first downs.
About half include a 3rd down conversion and 3 out of 4 have a 3rd down stop.

Everyone like to compare to Denver, so.....
Drives 80
TDs 10
FGs 15
Missed FG 1
Turnover 13
Punt 33
Other 8
1st downs 124
3rd down conv 37
3rd down stops 63

Patriots have allowed 10 fewer points.
These numbers look incredibly similar. I wonder if Denver fans are scared that their defense doesn't pass the eye test?

 

[Ring 6]

My stats teacher would tell us "Stats lie and liars use statistics."

Stats are very important in some areas, which is why they are popular but analyzing football by stats is just not realistic.
But they are there, so people use them to suit their purpose.
Its just like everyone who knows anything about football recognizes that PFF grades are a complete joke, but since they are the only one who does, every player on Sunday night football gets called the X ranked player at his position*

*ranking per PFF

So we now know that for example, Earl Thomas is the 16th best FS, and Tyrann Mathieu is the 32nd best at whatever position he is ranked as, and Richard Sherman is the 43rd best corner in the NFL.

 

[Silver Blue&Red]

OT: As a teen, Mrs. Rover was head cheerleader for a high school football team that often hear


...the Garden City Trojans.

Plagiarism by BB?

 

[PatsFanSince74]

My stats teacher would tell us "Stats lie and liars use statistics."

Or as my stats teacher put it, "There are lies. There are damn lies. And then there are statistics."

 

[ctpatsfan77]

this stat doesn't really make much sense to me. basically it's saying that you'd rather have a defense that gives up 500 yards and 15 ppg over a defense that gives up 250 yards and 15 ppg. i think i would prefer the latter defense.

You're not wrong, but that's not the real point. it's saying, if you're going to give up 15, it's better to make the opponent work by getting 500 yards than doing it on 250.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I appreciate the effort, but you go too far when you compile stats like this.

What about "yards per 2nd down on Sundays in Winter where the temperature is between 15 and 38 degrees"?

I assume you're adjusting that stat for the difference in air pressure in the game balls at different temperatures according to the Ideal Gas Law.

 

[Canuck]

The ideal Patsfans defense. Say we lead the league in sacks, interceptions, force fumbles, turnover ratio, PPG and give up the lowest number of yards per game. What would the Patsfan say about that, they would complain about the offense.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

The ideal Patsfans defense. Say we lead the league in sacks, interceptions, force fumbles, turnover ratio, PPG and give up the lowest number of yards per game. What would the Patsfan say about that, they would complain about the offense.

Yeah. There would be something seriously wrong with an Offense that would put that much pressure on its D. It would be time to clean house from top to bottom.







PS: That's a joke.
[I always add that out here, because you never know.]

 

[NormZauchin]

Agreed. It's points allowed. BB has also said 3rd down and red zone efficiency are important.

but....

For those of us who are trying to understand the "why" and the "how" 2nd level stats help. What it also tells us that there are a few different ways to reach success.

For example, the 1985 Bears allowed 20.88 yards per point. 2016 Pats allow 23 yards per point. That doesn't necessarily mean the 2016 Pats D is better than the 85 Bears D. It just means that both defenses make the offense work for points. If you go and drill into the 85 Bears red zone % , 3rd down D, qb hurries, comp % against, etc, you will see that their style was much more attack/pressure oriented and teams didn't have a lot of chances to make a chunk play because they a) never had the ball b) never had the time

Interesting about the '85 Bears. The other contender for the "greatest defense," the 2000 Ravens, gave 24.04 yards per point.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Interesting about the '85 Bears. The other contender for the "greatest defense," the 2000 Ravens, gave 24.04 yards per point.

That was a great, great defense.