Kirwin and Miller on Pats/Ravens

[New England Pride]

Sorry, I should have said in the playoffs. Watching the 2011 AFGC game have seen Brady play rushed and nervous in the beginning. The first pick (that was called back) was a short pass to Welker that popped into the air and was picked. Watching that game, Brady missed lots of throws. Also noticed that Welker did not play well (1st half).

Welker dropping a pass in a big moment? Shocking.

 

[RayClay]

Sorry, I should have said in the playoffs. Watching the 2011 AFGC game have seen Brady play rushed and nervous in the beginning. The first pick (that was called back) was a short pass to Welker that popped into the air and was picked. Watching that game, Brady missed lots of throws. Also noticed that Welker did not play well (1st half).

He does throw it hard and i agree, when he rushes due to pressure, he goes high too. I'd like to see him start with some of those low darts to move the chains and see what the D is doing. I feel like if they can move the ball conservatively, they can loosen up and attack this D, it is not what it used to be.

 

[VrabelJr]

I think if Solder shrugs Suggs then we dispatch these thugs go back to Baltimore with sour mugs and our OL gets new pairs of Uggs.

 

[jmt57]

I need to watch some all-22 on the Ravens to get a better idea of what's going on with the Baltimore rush defense, so in the interim some stats:

3.6 yards per carry - 3rd best in the NFL
88.3 yards per game - 4th
24.1 rush attempts/game - 5th
4.7 first downs per game - 5th
8 rushing touchdowns - tied for 5th
37% opponent rush play percentage - 3rd
24% opponent rushing 1st down % - 4th
25.6% opp rushing yards percentage - 2nd

At first glance I would say that running against Baltimore is a whole lot easier said than done. However, I have a few questions.

First, did opponents not run on them in part because it was so much easier to pass against them? Opponents did complete 64% of their passes against the Ravens, and that happened despite their facing average to subpar quarterbacks more often than they faced good QBs.

Also in regards to their opponents, how many teams with decent running games did they face? Baltimore played the Bengals (before Jeremy Hill got any playing time), the Browns twice, Carolina (without Jonathan Stewart or DeAngelo Williams), the Bucs, Falcons, Titans, Saints, Chargers, Jaguars, and then the Steelers without Le'Veon Bell.

In the final game of the regular season, the Cleveland Browns had third stringer Connor Shaw at QB, and no Josh Gordon at WR against the Ravens. Even though it was obvious the Browns weren't going to rely on their passing game, Cleveland's Terrance West ran for 94 yards and averaged 5.2 yards per carry. If the Browns - who had one of the worst running games in the NFL this year, averaging 3.6 yards per carry - could do that against Baltimore in that situation, then is the Ravens' run D really all that it is being hyped up to be?

 

[woolster22]

Pat Kirwin and Jim Miller (Sirius NFL radio) just talked a bit about the Pats offense versus the Ravens. Nothing really shocking, but one suggestion that will get this forum going:

a) Don't ask the o-line to hold blocks. Spread 'em out and have Brady's mental shot clock set to FAST. Get rid of it. Short crossers to Edelman and Gronk.

b) Ravens will play two-deep safety to mask their secondary weakness. Run the ball more than you think you should or you think you can.

c) Dumerville is weak against the run. Don't be afraid to audible to the draw play run on 3rd and 4 with a two deep safety look.

d) Steelers were dead when they couldn't run. The Pats can and should give the Ravens more of a threat of the run.

Sounds like a good plan

Regarding c:
Absolutely not if Vereen is the back. I've hammered this all season. The guy can't run the football between the tackles. He can't make somebody miss, and he can't break a tackle. At best, he is a lower tier third down type. Instead, we get to see him grabbing first string reps, and doing pretty much nothing with them. Everyone here knows that on third and four we are going three wide, hoomauseless in line to chip a DE with Vereen next to Brady. If anything audible to a screen.

FFS

 

[stcjones]

Problem is ....that it is hard to run the ball with a crappy inconsistent OL......OL needs to play outta their minds.....especially Solder who has been a weak sister again this year...obviously this game like most ....will come down to who WINS the TRENCHES....rat birds front DL and linebackers against our OL .....and can we get ANY pressure on Flaccid....same broken record keys year after year!

One thing I love seeing our team do is run the ball successfully.

When we have balance, lets be honest, we are gonna be real difficult to beat.

I would love to see that run game come alive Saturday, or at the very least have them make some business decisions in the 4th they don't want to make.

We need that run game...

 

[goheels22002]

I need to watch some all-22 on the Ravens to get a better idea of what's going on with the Baltimore rush defense, so in the interim some stats:

3.6 yards per carry - 3rd best in the NFL
88.3 yards per game - 4th
24.1 rush attempts/game - 5th
4.7 first downs per game - 5th
8 rushing touchdowns - tied for 5th
37% opponent rush play percentage - 3rd
24% opponent rushing 1st down % - 4th
25.6% opp rushing yards percentage - 2nd

At first glance I would say that running against Baltimore is a whole lot easier said than done. However, I have a few questions.

First, did opponents not run on them in part because it was so much easier to pass against them? Opponents did complete 64% of their passes against the Ravens, and that happened despite their facing average to subpar quarterbacks more often than they faced good QBs.

Also in regards to their opponents, how many teams with decent running games did they face? Baltimore played the Bengals (before Jeremy Hill got any playing time), the Browns twice, Carolina (without Jonathan Stewart or DeAngelo Williams), the Bucs, Falcons, Titans, Saints, Chargers, Jaguars, and then the Steelers without Le'Veon Bell.

In the final game of the regular season, the Cleveland Browns had third stringer Connor Shaw at QB, and no Josh Gordon at WR against the Ravens. Even though it was obvious the Browns weren't going to rely on their passing game, Cleveland's Terrance West ran for 94 yards and averaged 5.2 yards per carry. If the Browns - who had one of the worst running games in the NFL this year, averaging 3.6 yards per carry - could do that against Baltimore in that situation, then is the Ravens' run D really all that it is being hyped up to be?

The Ravens stats are very much a by-product of their opponents. AFC South and NFC South plus the Browns 2X. The Ravens got swept by the Bungles. If the Patriots are sharp, this could be a blowout.

 

[Oswlek]

Sorry, I should have said in the playoffs.

Even with the playoff disclaimer this strikes me as building a narrative out of anecdotal evidence. Even more so when you consider that Brady has the second lowest playoff interception rate in the history of the NFL.

 

[Patriot Missile]

Unleash the two TE and the Flemming formation on them.

 

[PatsDeb]

White's not a primary color, Tedy.

LOL, that is the first thing I thought too when reading Tedy's analysis. C'mon man!!

 

[condon84]

a) Don't ask the o-line to hold blocks. Spread 'em out and have Brady's mental shot clock set to FAST. Get rid of it. Short crossers to Edelman and Gronk.

Here's the thing with this point though: defenses that have had success against us like the Jets and Ravens in the past, aren't stupid. They clog the areas in the short/intermediate middle with Safeties and LBs where Brady likes to throw and leave their CBs on an island out wide. Brady has to throw out wide and those guys have to beat their matchups.

Also McD can't become predictable. I think a hurry up offense should slow down their DL, but it can't be pass pass pass. We gotta be able to run in the hurry up too.

 

[Slagathor]

The manufactured hype surrounding this game is truly annoying. The Pats are going to roll the Ravens.
This Baltimore team is a shell of the team everyone is so wary of from a couple of years ago. Boastful chatter and hype cannot overcome reality. Our defense is considerably better than those of previous playoff meetings. Other than a reasonably stout DLine.....the Ravens are weaker at EVERY position than before. Will our very average O-Line be tested?....absolutely. But the test will not be enough to prevent us from winning by 10 points or more.

The biggest challenge this team will face will come on Super Bowl Sunday. I'll worry then.

 

[hwc]

Indeed, the Pats do have a championship caliber defense for the first time in many years. And, the Pats have a healthy Gronkowski in the lineup for the first time in a several years.

Still, I don't think the Pats are a prohibitive favorite in any playoff game. I like their chances at home. I'm cautiously optimistic. I'd feel a lot better if the offense hadn't gone in the crapper over the final month of the season.

 

[hwc]

They clog the areas in the short/intermediate middle with Safeties and LBs where Brady likes to throw and leave their CBs on an island out wide. Brady has to throw out wide and those guys have to beat their matchups.

It's a lot easier to "clog the middle" with Ed Reed at safety, Ray Lewis at LB, and Gronkowski on IR.

 

[SalemPats]

Pat Kirwin and Jim Miller (Sirius NFL radio) just talked a bit about the Pats offense versus the Ravens. Nothing really shocking, but one suggestion that will get this forum going:

a) Don't ask the o-line to hold blocks. Spread 'em out and have Brady's mental shot clock set to FAST. Get rid of it. Short crossers to Edelman and Gronk.

b) Ravens will play two-deep safety to mask their secondary weakness. Run the ball more than you think you should or you think you can.

c) Dumerville is weak against the run. Don't be afraid to audible to the draw play run on 3rd and 4 with a two deep safety look.

d) Steelers were dead when they couldn't run. The Pats can and should give the Ravens more of a threat of the run.

Yeah they were great today. It will be interesting. Their front four with Ngata back is pretty good. I don't expect the Ravens to blitz much, but at the same time if they can't get pressure on Brady with their secondary they are screwed. I expect a lot of 2 TE / 2 WR sets giving Brady the opportunity to audible to a run if Brady see's an outside blitz or quick in/out to mini-tron or Gronk down the seam if the Safeties drop back.

 

[SalemPats]

Also Vereen will play a major role. He can start off in the backfield and then depending on the defense roll out and become a WR. I expect a couple of deep streaks to Vereen if they keep a LB on him

 

[TomPatriot]

b) Ravens will play two-deep safety to mask their secondary weakness. Run the ball more than you think you should or you think you can.

I thought they played a lot of cover 4 against the Steelers, a team with a weaker running game and better deep threats than the Pats.

 

[Ring 6]

I don't think McDaniels will ever be afraid to use this one...

??
That is an UNDERutilized play in our system.
All season we have run the ball on 3rd and 6+ only 14 times (and a couple were clock killing) and 8 of those were 3rd and 11+ where the play was just designed to be safe and get a little field position.
That is not a lot at all.

 

[Ring 6]

If they are getting to Brady..only thing to slow that down is quick passes so yes i expect some vereen in if pats having problems on OLine

Its much more complex than run, short pass or long pass.

The primary objective in this game would seem to be to neutralize the rush.

Baltimore's weak secondary has them apt to play 2 deep safeties.

You cannot cover everything. If they are bringing pressure and we hit the short stuff, they have to back off. With the rush handled and the defense focused on short stuff, we can go deep.

Of course, it is much, much more detailed than that because a defense doesn't do one thing for a bunch of plays in a row and change when it doesn't work, but that is the basis of game planning.

We will run route sets that take advantage of the whole field and attack where they are weak.

 

[cstjohn17]

Interesting read, Kirwan is very good.

I expect one of the X factors to be how successful (and committed) the Patriots will be to run against a lighter box. I expect the Ravens to be in nickle most of the game with Safeties back. The Ravens will dare the Patriots to run.