lillloyd
Third String But Playing on Special Teams
- Joined
- Apr 12, 2010
- Messages
- 502
- Reaction score
- 776
Holiday greetings and congrats from a Steelers fan...
I was thinking last night about the AFC and who might have a chance of going into Foxboro and winning. Needless to say, it's not a pretty picture (well for us anyway -- your Pats will be the prohibitive favorite to advance to SB XLIX, and rightfully so given your performance against the AFC's best this year.
The best arguments against the Pats advancing really have little to do with NE per se, and more to do with recent NFL playoff history. Recall that:
Here are the best-case scenarios as I see it for the other AFC squads, if they're to knock off NE:
While that was all fun to write, here's the problem -- I have a very tough time believing in any of the above scenarios. I'd probably put the Denver scenario and maybe the Baltimore scenario at the highest chances of happening (20%, maybe?) I'd put the rest of the scenarios at around 5%.
Denver looks eminently beatable with Manning looking so ordinary. While it's really not out of the question that they right the ship (and Manning along with it)--and let's face it, Denver does have a hugely talented roster--Manning in NE (and in January!) is just not a combination I have a lot of confidence in.
I'd group Pitt and Indy (and SD, if they even make it) as teams with offenses that have a puncher's chance of beating New England....again, maybe 5%. The problem with these scenarios is that Pitt and Indy have had plenty of stinkers offensively on the road. On top of that, you have BB with two weeks to prep and a NE defense that is decidedly better than what it has been in the recent past. The notion that certain teams could match NE score-for-score ignores the fact that New England's defense will be far better than Pitt's or Indy's. (And as far as SD goes -- they just seem like a limited team to me, and Rivers still doesn't look right despite his 2nd half explosion last week).
That leaves the AFCN 'sluggers', Cincy and Baltimore. I refuse to endorse Cincy so long as Andy Dalton is at the helm (although if you get "good Andy" they are arguably a very tough out).
Of all the teams in the field, I think Baltimore may match up the best with New England simply due to their front 7. As we saw in the Meadowlands Sunday, a front 7 can conver for a talentless secondary. If Flacco plays well, Baltimore can be a tough out, and obviously the Ravens wouldn't go into Foxboro scared given their recent success there. The problem here is that Baltimore may not even make the playoffs...and if they do, they'll have to win two tough road games just to get to Foxboro, against teams they may not match up against nearly as well.
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Bottom line -- don't be shy about booking your Arizona flights, this is looking like a NE Super Bowl.
Happy holidays everyone -- lillloyd
I was thinking last night about the AFC and who might have a chance of going into Foxboro and winning. Needless to say, it's not a pretty picture (well for us anyway -- your Pats will be the prohibitive favorite to advance to SB XLIX, and rightfully so given your performance against the AFC's best this year.
The best arguments against the Pats advancing really have little to do with NE per se, and more to do with recent NFL playoff history. Recall that:
- Last season -- when both #1 seeds advanced to play in the Super Bowl -- was actually a huge anomaly. Between 1990 and 2013, the two #1 seeds only advanced to the SB together only 3 times (!) and there have been several years where the #1 seed has had an early exit. (See http://www.nbcsports.com/football/nfl/being-no-1-seed-often-means-1-and-done)
- Over that time span, there have been numerous examples of seemingly fatally flawed teams advancing and winning the SB. The Ravens' 2012 team (which lost 4 of 5 down the regular season stretch as was not viewed as a legit contender by anyone) is just the most recent example. But the '05 Steelers (who won from the #6 slot), the '06 Colts (with a *historically* bad run defense) and the two Giants teams show that it's actually not uncommon for a team that no one took seriously to win it.
Here are the best-case scenarios as I see it for the other AFC squads, if they're to knock off NE:
- Denver. Shaking off their brutal loss to Cincy last night, Denver circles the wagons and secures the #2 seed despite another shaky performance from Peyton in week 17. But Denver uses the bye week to heal and get Peyton 'right'. After a solid performance at home in the divisional round, Denver arrives at Foxboro resembling the early-season Broncos. Denver reminds the league that it still has arguably the most talented roster in the league, and outlasts NE in a game for the ages.
- Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh continues to ride a hot streak into the playoffs by beating Cincy week 17 and securing a home playoff game. Their resurgent D continues to gel at just the right time. They advance easily in the wild card round, and then outscore a struggling Denver team to move onto Foxboro. In a season full of violent ups and downs, the 'good' Pittsburgh team shows up, and Pitt's explosive offense is simply able to outscore New England's.
- Cincy. Cincy rides the momentum of their Denver win into Pittsburgh, where they upend the Steelers and claim the #3 seed. Despite the well-documented struggles of the 'red rifle' in the playoffs, Cincy advances to Foxboro largely on the strength of their suddenly dominant ground game and the emergence of Jeramy Hill. Cincy stuns the Patriots in Foxboro with a "good Andy", plus a ball control, run-focused game plan that resembles the formula of the Ravens in recent years.
- Indy. (This is getting harder lol). Indy shakes off its horrific loss at Dallas and advances from the WC round, in a game where both Andrew Luck and the Colts' defense look more like its early-season form. In the divisional round, Indy goes to Foxboro, where Luck puts up a game for the ages to advance.
- Baltimore. Having gotten their last, terrible road game out of their system, the Ravens hunker down and secure the #6 slot after SD loses at KC. Joe Flacco goes into 2012 playoff mode, and the Ravens are suddenly extremely dangerous with solid QB play, a solid running game, and a front seven that will give any of the AFC's top QBs fits. Baltimore exacts revenge on Pitt in the WC round, and then returns to Foxboro where its front 7 dominates, harassing Brady into a losing effort.
While that was all fun to write, here's the problem -- I have a very tough time believing in any of the above scenarios. I'd probably put the Denver scenario and maybe the Baltimore scenario at the highest chances of happening (20%, maybe?) I'd put the rest of the scenarios at around 5%.
Denver looks eminently beatable with Manning looking so ordinary. While it's really not out of the question that they right the ship (and Manning along with it)--and let's face it, Denver does have a hugely talented roster--Manning in NE (and in January!) is just not a combination I have a lot of confidence in.
I'd group Pitt and Indy (and SD, if they even make it) as teams with offenses that have a puncher's chance of beating New England....again, maybe 5%. The problem with these scenarios is that Pitt and Indy have had plenty of stinkers offensively on the road. On top of that, you have BB with two weeks to prep and a NE defense that is decidedly better than what it has been in the recent past. The notion that certain teams could match NE score-for-score ignores the fact that New England's defense will be far better than Pitt's or Indy's. (And as far as SD goes -- they just seem like a limited team to me, and Rivers still doesn't look right despite his 2nd half explosion last week).
That leaves the AFCN 'sluggers', Cincy and Baltimore. I refuse to endorse Cincy so long as Andy Dalton is at the helm (although if you get "good Andy" they are arguably a very tough out).
Of all the teams in the field, I think Baltimore may match up the best with New England simply due to their front 7. As we saw in the Meadowlands Sunday, a front 7 can conver for a talentless secondary. If Flacco plays well, Baltimore can be a tough out, and obviously the Ravens wouldn't go into Foxboro scared given their recent success there. The problem here is that Baltimore may not even make the playoffs...and if they do, they'll have to win two tough road games just to get to Foxboro, against teams they may not match up against nearly as well.
********
Bottom line -- don't be shy about booking your Arizona flights, this is looking like a NE Super Bowl.
Happy holidays everyone -- lillloyd