How Much Optimism Do You Have Over This Defense?

[mmasterkillah]

I'm cautiously optimistic.

I usually try to scout/project players and teams based on ceilings and floors, assuming everyone is healthy.

If Collins, Chandler Jones and a couple of the other youngsters (Ryan, Harmon, DT?) can keep improving, we could be in the Seahawks/49ers discussion by season's end... which is all I'm worried about.

I'm still concerned about our backups at MLB, but I wouldn't rule out another acquisiton.

 

[mgteich]

How can we be not be cautiously optimistic?

We have lots of youngsters. We should net improvement from the group as a whole. We have Revis and Browner instead of Talib. We will get Mayo back. We hope to get something out of the four defensive tackles returning from injuries.

The defense was a top 10 defense in 2012.

It is hard for them not to be better.

Of course, the question is whether they are better enough to contribute to a playoff win against Denver.

 

[PatsBoy12]

I was excited about the defense going into last season and, before the rash of injuries, they were holding up their end of the bargain quite well. They were stout in all phases, though we did see some signs that teams could run on them a bit.

I'm even more excited going into this season. I just see all kinds of potential for this defense to be more disruptive, more complex. No more vanilla stuff. This is the best mix of veteran and youth and they're all smart players. We have physicality and athleticism on all three levels. I see a D that will get off the field on third downs. I see coverage sacks. I see QB pressures that lead to interceptions. If healthy, as many others have said, this is a top five unit in many categories, including and especially, PPG.

 

[lurker1965]

Define optimism. I think no defense will ever regularly hold a competent offense under 20 points again. Will this defense be better than, say 3/4 of the league this up coming year? Yes. Will it be like 2003, or 2004 (or even 2007?) No.

 

[mgteich]

Define optimism. I think no defense will ever regularly hold a competent offense under 20 points again. Will this defense be better than, say 3/4 of the league this up coming year? Yes. Will it be like 2003, or 2004 (or even 2007?) No.

Four teams kept teams to 19 or less last year. Are you suggesting that this is only against weak offenses?

Upon further review, it seems that your position makes little sense. In the playoffs, the last 7 teams eliminated scored a maximum of 22 (against NE). All the rest scored 17 or fewer, the playoff standard for many years.

 

[lurker1965]

OK, maybe not 20, maybe 17. You want to tell me leading 10-6 is highly possible now? In 2003 (or was it 2004) games against Cleveland were that score and we knew they'd not get the TD. We will never see that again. (OK, never say never, but... )

Maybe you can say "NOT 20! GOTCHA!" but deny that scoring is up and great players like Rodney Harrison would be flag machines today.

 

[lurker1965]

Four teams kept teams to 19 or less last year. Are you suggesting that this is only against weak offenses?

Upon further review, it seems that your position makes little sense. In the playoffs, the last 7 teams eliminated scored a maximum of 22 (against NE). All the rest scored 17 or fewer, the playoff standard for many years.

Sorry, the old way was if I was the next post I'd not quote you. Now to let you know I replied I have to quote you. Reply is in the post above.

 

[mgteich]

OK, maybe not 20, maybe 17. You want to tell me leading 10-6 is highly possible now? In 2003 (or was it 2004) games against Cleveland were that score and we knew they'd not get the TD. We will never see that again. (OK, never say never, but... )

Maybe you can say "NOT 20! GOTCHA!" but deny that scoring is up and great players like Rodney Harrison would be flag machines today.

I agree that low scoring games are less likely. However, playoff defenses MUST keep their opposing offenses to under 17. In 2013, the patriots were the only team to give up more than 17 and win a division round or alter playoff game.

 

[patfanken]

I'd assume he means that the Patriots ask Ninkovich to play the run more than many teams might ask their DE's to.

Ninkovich is a perfect fit for the Patriot's defense, however, he's not a top 5 DE in the AFC, however, the one who initially said it cleverly threw in "top 5 LDE" to help his argument.

You make a statement yet provide no data to back up your opinion.

Now I'm not a stat geek, and I always take the use of stats with a grain of salt. But they ARE a good indicator, and often they are all we have to go on. B6 gave us a number of stats that would indicate that Ninko IS among the best at his position. Yet people here continue to make posts minimizing his contribution YET never offer anything to back up their position. Strngplyr, are there really 5 guys in the AFC who had better production than Rob Ninkovich? If so make your case, DON'T just restate a flawed opinion that has stuck around far too long.

 

[Kontradiction]

I haven't been this optimistic about the starters on defense in years. It's the depth that worries me, particularly at DT, DE, LB, and safety.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

If 10 means I expect the D to be an elite unit and suffocate opponents to the point of embarrassment then I'm at a 6 for this D. On paper it looks like a special collection of players however, my voice of reason says pull back the optimism given the amount of players returning from significant injuries.

I like this scale system you propose.

On that basis, it's really hard to say as some pieces have to fall together.
DL - this is obviously the biggest question mark. It could go anywhere from 2-9 in my opinion depending on health, rookie, and 2nd year leaps (Chris Jones while not spectacular last year could generate more push with a solid presence in the middle)

DE - Solid starters, but depth can be an issue. Maybe Will Smith can be a solid rotational guy and keep Jones/Ninko fresher. I like this group, but give it a 7-8 (especially if Jones gets some respect from officials)

LB - still questions. If Mayo is back that makes then a 6 automatically, if Collins can be more consistent that may jump up to an 8 (given he can play roles on DE/LB/Coverage Safety, but is a LB and would only flex to those other positions for matchup advantages). so 5-8

DB - if Ryan makes a leap and Browner performs well, then this could be the best unit on the D. And that revis guy could make this a 10. Dennard -- probably is on the IR, but if he can stay on the field this will help and Arrington staying in the slot would actually help the D. so 5-10

S - We have McCourty and this can't be undersold. If Revis is able to lock up the island, that really gives McCourty less field to "theoretically" cover and that could make him very dangerous. But, who the heck is going to be the other safety? Harmon? Wilson, Chung, Ebner -- let's just say I'm hoping for a big surprise here and that someone steps up. so 5-7 is the range I give them

BB has some really flexible pieces here and can turn this defense into just about anything with the same group of personnel. That can be a pleasant thought. It will be interesting to see what he unveils and when.

 

[condon84]

Cautiously optimistic.

We started out great last year but then got destroyed by injuries.

 

[AzPatsFan]

I haven't been this optimistic about the starters on defense in years. It's the depth that worries me, particularly at DT, DE, LB, and safety.

I am as optimistic about the starters as you are. However I have little or no concern for depth at DE, DT and to a lesser degree Safety. I will concern myself only with the LB depth in this post.

There is an obvious apparent depth concern at LB, assuming only three Mayo, HT, and Collins qualify as established Quality starters. But I think that is a superficial analysis only.

The new base Defense in terms of usag,e is the 4-2-5 with variants like a 4-1-1- 5. That alternatively can be thought of as a 4-1-6. So the Nickle and Dime are now our usual and normal lineups. In those cases the second LB is and could sometimes be really a Rover/SS/ hybrid-LB.

With strong hitters but slightly deficient in coverage people like Tavon Wilson or Patrick Chung added to the list of LBs. They may be deficient as Safeties in deep Safety coverage, but they are much superior to most LBs in coverage when restricted to LB-like, short, pass-coverage routes. They trade size for speed.

Secondly , Ninko can also be considered a LB if necessary, since there is now depth at DE, to enable his recall to LB, with Will Smith, Buchanon, Easly and Armstead to call on.

So all in all, the experienced starter quality LBs number at least four and probably six, for a position that now usually only needs 2 or sometimes 3. The depth there is then fine too.

 

[jays52]

There is a legitimate chance that this defense will be better than the 03 group. Barring injury there is no reason why they can't be in the top 2 league wide.

 

[goheels22002]

If 10 means I expect the D to be an elite unit and suffocate opponents to the point of embarrassment then I'm at a 6 for this D. On paper it looks like a special collection of players however, my voice of reason says pull back the optimism given the amount of players returning from significant injuries.

If "10" means the 2002 Buccaneers, 1985-86 Chicago Bears, the 2000 Ravens or the 1976 Steelers, I give this group a "7" right now. My "9" defenses include the 2013 Seahawks, the 1969 Purple People Eaters Vikings. 8 is a slew of teams including the 1990 Giants (Belichick as DC), 2003-2004 Patriots, 1968 Packers, 1996 Packers, 1973 Dolphins, 2012-2013 49ers, the Ravens in the 2000s.

The 2014 Patriots can climb into that group but they have to keep their Offensive PPG below 17, their turnover margin at plus 20 or higher (the NFL record is +43 by the '83 Redskins!), and their Red Zone TD scoring efficiency at below 40% (in 2013 it was 51.72%, good for 13th best in the league.)

The 2013 Patriots started out looking like top-tier defense before it was hollowed out by injuries. This team is deeper, and better, everywhere except linebacker where it is still very thin. It would be nice if one more proven linebacker catches on before opening day.

 

[Deus Irae]

I can't really answer the question without seeing the walking wounded out on the field in at least semi-game situations. I love that the DBs have gone from a total joke to, perhaps, having the best trio (I get that they need a 4-some) in the NFL, with Browner/Revis/McCourty, though, as that's a potential 2007ish game changer if the offense can get early leads.

 

[strngplyr]

I can't really answer the question without seeing the walking wounded out on the field in at least semi-game situations. I love that the DBs have gone from a total joke to, perhaps, having the best trio (I get that they need a 4-some) in the NFL, with Browner/Revis/McCourty, though, as that's a potential 2007ish game changer if the offense can get early leads.

Agreed, it can definitely be a game changer, I don't have any numbers, but the eye test last year told me that when we blitzed it was actually effective for a change, its just that we only blitzed (5+ rushers) 19% of the snaps.

If we have better back end coverage I'd like to see the blitzing numbers increase to 30% or more, our front 4 is very good at times, but they aren't a group who can get consistent pressure without help. Hopefully an even more bulked up Jones (said hes focusing on lower body strength this offseason after upper body last) and the addition of Easly in the interior will help us be more consistent, especially combined with Hightower, Collins, or a DB bringing extra heat more often.

 

[Kontradiction]

Agreed, it can definitely be a game changer, I don't have any numbers, but the eye test last year told me that when we blitzed it was actually effective for a change, its just that we only blitzed (5+ rushers) 19% of the snaps.

If we have better back end coverage I'd like to see the blitzing numbers increase to 30% or more, our front 4 is very good at times, but they aren't a group who can get consistent pressure without help. Hopefully an even more bulked up Jones (said hes focusing on lower body strength this offseason after upper body last) and the addition of Easly in the interior will help us be more consistent, especially combined with Hightower, Collins, or a DB bringing extra heat more often.

I expect that percentage of blitzes to go way up this season, given what the team has done with the back end. They'll probably be a lot more exotic as well. This may be the first season since the dynasty years that we actually see the return of the overload blitz.

 

[Deus Irae]

Agreed, it can definitely be a game changer, I don't have any numbers, but the eye test last year told me that when we blitzed it was actually effective for a change, its just that we only blitzed (5+ rushers) 19% of the snaps.

If we have better back end coverage I'd like to see the blitzing numbers increase to 30% or more, our front 4 is very good at times, but they aren't a group who can get consistent pressure without help. Hopefully an even more bulked up Jones (said hes focusing on lower body strength this offseason after upper body last) and the addition of Easly in the interior will help us be more consistent, especially combined with Hightower, Collins, or a DB bringing extra heat more often.

If Collins is ready and improved, Mayo is 100% and Anderson isn't finished, the Patriots have 3 LBs who can cover a bit. That will help with any blitzing, too. One thing that seems sure is that, if the injured come back healthy and the young progress, this team will be capable of running a lot of defensive plays it hasn't been able to since about 2008.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I'm worried about the linebackers in coverage, but that's about it.

Mayo is respectable. Hightower improved. In his short time in the role, Collins was impactful and he should improve even more. I think the Anderson pickup is solid. He makes plays in space and tackles well. Is very good in coverage and does a nice job getting after the QB.