Shockingly Obvious: McDaniels, Don't Be Afraid of the Run!!!

[RayClay]

You've not bothered to read nor understand anything in that article or about the broader subject. You didn't even bother to read the excerpt I posted which says this:



You've then gone on to set up some bizarre false dichotomy that has nothing to do with what I've posted or anything I've posted about. Efficiency as measured by EPA is expected points added, not YPP, so effectively all you did was create some nerd strawman. This is a context-neutral narrative analysis that tells us overall the Pats are running the ball too much. So citing a specific example like Joker did of where he thought the Pats should have ran instead of passed isn't very instructive beyond that specific circumstance.

I read that, It says nothing about the silliness of measuring average yardage in a game where you need to get 10 yards every third play, not sometime in the game.

Most analyses of football that rely on comparing averages are useless.

 

[TyronePoole]

I read that, It says nothing about the silliness of measuring average yardage in a game where you need to get 10 yards every third play, not sometime in the game.

Most analyses of football that rely on comparing averages are useless.

who is measuring average yardage? wtf are you talking about

 

[TyronePoole]

where you need to get 10 yards every third play, not sometime in the game.

also this statement is so wrong on multiple levels

 

[RayClay]

who is measuring average yardage? wtf are you talking about

The research to date, notably the Alamar and Rockerbie papers along with my own articles, typically follow the same approach. They calculate the average expected yardage gain by running and by passing, accounting for various risks such as incompletions, turnovers, or sacks. The difference between the average expected gains for running and passing is then presented as a puzzle. If for example, passing yields a higher average gain than running, why don’t teams pass more often?

.....................

 

[Archeryaddict12]

Need a mix of pass and run. Have to throw between 25-40 times. And run maybe 30 times. The only problem is the Dlines we will face. But I imagine that having Edelman, amendola, vereen healthy and maybe Dobson, we can be good in the pass. I want to see some Hooman Tds though!!!

 

[RayClay]

also this statement is so wrong on multiple levels

It's called a first down. The rare 4th down play not considered.

If you think the mechanics of a first down aren't important in your theory, I guess we aren't talking about the same thing.

 

[RayClay]

Need a mix of pass and run. Have to throw between 25-40 times. And run maybe 30 times. The only problem is the Dlines we will face. But I imagine that having Edelman, amendola, vereen healthy and maybe Dobson, we can be good in the pass. I want to see some Hooman Tds though!!!

What counts is, we've kept the passing threat despite personnel losses and turned the potential running threat into a real one.

At the same time, we've tightened up the run defense, which makes it easier fo the pass rush, got our quicker LBs in and should be pretty healthy and talented at DB.

It's often just the team that's peaking and I feel real good about ours.

 

[TyronePoole]

.....................

so did you A) read the first two paragraphs and then stop or B) read the whole thing and not understand it at all?

Also, I like that you just casually breezed through the assumption that 20 yards passing is likely followed by 3 incomplete passes while 3 runs consistently nets 4 yards per play. Feel free to show your work on that.

 

[TyronePoole]

It's called a first down. The rare 4th down play not considered.

If you think the mechanics of a first down aren't important in your theory, I guess we aren't talking about the same thing.

I mean, the idea that a first down is only needed every third play is so dumb it's not hard to see why you struggled with the rest of it.

Let me guess, "control the clock" "grind it out" etc right?

Heaven forbid you get a first down "some other time in the game" than on 3rd down.

 

[RayClay]

so did you A) read the first two paragraphs and then stop or B) read the whole thing and not understand it at all?

Also, I like that you just casually breezed through the assumption that 20 yards passing is likely followed by 3 incomplete passes while 3 runs consistently nets 4 yards per play. Feel free to show your work on that.

Well, if someone can complete 10-20 yard passes every play, they should never run, but (as the part I read and posted says) it's some equation about average gain per play.

You said it didn't say what I said, so I quoted it. Then that didn't count because i didn't prove I read every bit. I read it. It's a waste of time.

It doesn't relate to football, I explained why and all you could say is I'm wrong and it didn't say what i said it did (until I quoted it).

Your counter arguments? You have none. What a surprise.

 

[Brady6]

Loss #1 To Cinci: Brady 18-38 197 yds TD 0 INT 1. Patriots Rushes 18-82 Avg 4.6 New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals - Box Score - October 06, 2013 - ESPN

Loss#2 to NYJ: Brady 22-46 228 yds TD 0 INT 1. Patriots Rushes 20-90 Avg. 4.5
Watch New England Patriots vs. New York Jets [10/20/2013] - NFL.com

Loss #3 to Car: Brady 29-40 296 yds TD 1 INT 1. Patriots Rushes 25-107 Avg. 4.3
New England Patriots vs. Carolina Panthers - Box Score - November 18, 2013 - ESPN

Loss #4 to Mia: Brady 35-54 364 yds TD 2 INT 1. Patriots rushes 22-96 Avg. 4.4
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins - Box Score - December 15, 2013 - ESPN


So, in 3 of those 4 losses, McDaniels had the Pass to Run ratio at greater than 2-1 (and the other was 8-5) even though the run was averaging in the mid 4's in each game.


Pass to Run Ratios
__________________
Loss #1 38-18
Loss #2 46-20
Loss #3 40-25
Loss #4 54-22

Great post very informative shmessy… I totally agree with the running game needing to be more prominent. The reality is without Gronkowski the RBs is the most talented skill group on the offense and we need to get the ball into their hands early and often.

Top 10 in offensive yards from scrimmage and total touchdowns:

1. Edelman – 1067 yards from scrimmage and 6 total touchdowns
2. Ridley – 835 yards from scrimmage and 7 total touchdowns
3. Blount – 810 yards from scrimmage and 7 total touchdowns
4. Vereen – 635 yards from scrimmage and 4 total touchdowns
5. Amendola – 635 yards from scrimmage and 2 touchdowns
6. Gronkowski – 592 yards from scrimmage and 4 total touchdowns
7. Dobson – 519 yards from scrimmage and 4 total touchdowns
8. Thompkins – 466 yards from scrimmage and 4 total touchdowns
9. Bolden – 423 yards from scrimmage and 3 total touchdowns
10. Hoomanawanui – 136 yards from scrimmage 1 total touchdown

Edelman was #1 and then it went #2, #3, and #4 for Ridley, Blount and Vereen. Ridley only played 14 games and was benched for portions or almost all of at least 3-4 games and Vereen only played in 8 games. We have to lean on these players if we want to get to the promise land. I think the defense can hold strong and Brady, Edelman and one of the other receivers can step up enough to get us to the Super Bowl.

I will say that some of the blame for the lack of running in certain games needs to land on Brady as well, he goes to the line most times with a passing and running play and then makes that determination, Josh doesn’t hold the entire stick.

 

[RayClay]

I mean, the idea that a first down is only needed every third play is so dumb it's not hard to see why you struggled with the rest of it.

I guess I'm not surprised, but are you going to fail to address any reasonable pints I make, instead twisting words like a third grader would into an all or nothing argument?

Yes, you've got me. I only count first downs when they take three plays. I can't believe how you've exposed my specious argument.

I figured quarterbacks ran and passed according to situations and defenses, but i guess it's based on excel spreadsheets,

 

[supafly]

I think the defense can hold strong and Brady, Edelman and one of the other receivers can step up enough to get us to the Super Bowl.

Those are certainly the 2 biggest concerns that I have going in to the postseason, the defense, and our lack of a real downfield receiver. If they can overcome those issues, they should be in pretty good shape.

 

[RayClay]

I mean, the idea that a first down is only needed every third play is so dumb it's not hard to see why you struggled with the rest of it.

Let me guess, "control the clock" "grind it out" etc right?

Heaven forbid you get a first down "some other time in the game" than on 3rd down.

Unless you can score, you generally need to string together a number of first downs.

 

[RayClay]

Those are certainly the 2 biggest concerns that I have going in to the postseason, the defense, and our lack of a real downfield receiver. If they can overcome those issues, they should be in pretty good shape.

I'm always for balance, but under the current circumstances, I think we should emphasize the run game. Looking at Dobson, I'm guessing we'll be undermanned at best with slot type receivers so a dominant running game will keep teams from playing extra DBs and solve our red zone problem too. They really need to scheme to get one of those smurfs open in the end zone.

 

[Deus Irae]

I guess I'm not surprised, but are you going to fail to address any reasonable pints I make, instead twisting words like a third grader would into an all or nothing argument?

Yes, you've got me. I only count first downs when they take three plays. I can't believe how you've exposed my specious argument.

I figured quarterbacks ran and passed according to situations and defenses, but i guess it's based on excel spreadsheets,

Perhaps they could just run the ball for, say, the first 30 plays before beginning to pass.

 

[Deus Irae]

Those are certainly the 2 biggest concerns that I have going in to the postseason, the defense, and our lack of a real downfield receiver. If they can overcome those issues, they should be in pretty good shape.

This offense feels very 2009ish right now. It's even worse, in the sense that 2009 had two players you had to shut down (Welker, Moss). Right now, just shutting down Edelman would cripple this offense. Look for opposing teams to focus on doing just that.

 

[Deus Irae]

Those are certainly the 2 biggest concerns that I have going in to the postseason, the defense, and our lack of a real downfield receiver. If they can overcome those issues, they should be in pretty good shape.

This offense feels very 2009ish right now. It's even worse, in the sense that 2009 had two players you had to shut down (Welker, Moss). Right now, just shutting down Edelman would cripple this offense. Look for opposing teams to focus on doing just that.

 

[RayClay]

Perhaps they could just run the ball for, say, the first 30 plays before beginning to pass.

As long as the defense doesn't catch on since otherwise that could be the fourth quarter. Of course if they throw two eighty yard passes in the first quarter, they could shut it down and hold with their 40 yard per play average, a sure winner.

 

[Brady6]

Those are certainly the 2 biggest concerns that I have going in to the postseason, the defense, and our lack of a real downfield receiver. If they can overcome those issues, they should be in pretty good shape.

With the Chiefs banged up, Denver without Miller and Cincinnati without Atkins and Hall I think we have the best defense of all the AFC playoff teams.