MMQB - Patriots Preview: A New Offense with the same Approach

[BobDigital]

People keep making that claim around here. It's just not true. There's nobody in the league who gets open faster than Welker, including Amendola. That's an incredible talent.

Amedola's been a solid player when healthy, but he's not Welker. That will be better in some ways (better on the longer passes and possibly a bit more diverse), but worse in others (not as quick to get open, more of an injury risk, but Amendola is not more talented than Welker.

Amendola is not as quick in a short area as Welker but his he has more straight line speed and is a threat to be go vertical where Welker wasn't. They are very close talent wise but I prefer Amendola's style more. Call it a wash.

Talent wise this team is probably more talented than last years due to the depth we have. Looking at top players here is how I see it.

Gronk = Gronk - No change
Amendola = Welker - No change
KT > Lloyd - Got better
Sudfeld << Hernandez - Got worse

So it is close when just looking at the top 4 guys. The difference is our depth is WAY better this year offensively. We had Edelman last year and he was mostly hurt but now we have Boyce/Dobson over an old Branch and.... I forget.

I am not including Woodhead cause Vereen will just absorb those catches so you won't lose and only gain there too.

I think we have overall more talent but less polish. By the end of the year this offense will be just as good if not better than last year.

 

[PatsDeb]

Honestly, I think the early part of the season is going to be sobering for a lot of us offensively. We have three rookie WRs that we are going to need to contribute (some more than others). Dropped balls, incorrectly ran routes, off sides, lining up wrong and mental errors in key situations (two minute drills, etc.) will be more common than us Pats fans have been accustomed to in recent years. A combined 1400-1800 yards out of Thompkins, Dobson, Boyce and Sudfeld would be a great first year.

As I just said in the Jets thread, the fact that our first two opponents (Bills and Jets) are in disarray and QB hell with less than 2 weeks to opening day will hopefully help us in this regard (in that they won't be scoring a lot of points and/or maybe our D can put some points on the board or give us a short field) while our new-look O gets into a groove.

 

[patfanken]

People keep making that claim around here. It's just not true. There's nobody in the league who gets open faster than Welker, including Amendola. That's an incredible talent.

Amedola's been a solid player when healthy, but he's not Welker. That will be better in some ways (better on the longer passes and possibly a bit more diverse), but worse in others (not as quick to get open, more of an injury risk, but Amendola is not more talented than Welker.

This is just your OPINION, DI. I think that one preseason game gave everyone a glance at what Amendola can be......if healthy. There was absolutely NO drop off in skill and production from the slot position with Amendola when he was on the field. Granted it was a very some sample but even you had to be impressed with is play that game.

Losing Hernandez's talent is a big loss. The Gronk/Hernandez combination was very tough on defenses. However I can't understand why people put so much in question about Gronk. He's likely only going to miss a couple of games (Jets, Bills), not half the season like its being implied.

As to the OP - I don't get upset when the national media questions how the Pats are going to survive the losses of Welker, Hernandez and Lloyd. It only makes sense. It's almost 3000 yds of production, and even the most optimistic among don't know for sure how the new receivers are going to work out.

.....But here's my guess.

1.Amendola will seamlessly replace Welker's production. I have only 2 fears about that. First his health of course. 2nd is that Brady gets too attached to him like he did at time with Welker.

2. Thomkins, Boyce, and Dobbs, are huge athletic upgrades over Lloyd and Branch as far as size speed, and strength go. For the long term, the upside looks great. Short term we have to understand we are dealing with rookies and fear the worst and hope for the best. However when the playoffs come around, these guys WON'T be rookies, and it bodes well for the playoff offense, more than the regular season one.

3. My bet is that Gronk plays in 14 games this season and will still be "the Gronk" That force of nature that can be pretty unstoppable. He not only makes the passing game go, but the running game as well. I take all the injury crap with a grain of salt. If you look at it, his only "injuries" was an ankle sprain for one game,(just the wrong game, unfortunately), and the lost time to a broken arm. For 3 seasons there wasn't a breath of comment about his back. Whatever they did was prophylactic. Right up to the procedure there wasn't any hint his back was bothering him.

4 Fells and Sudfeld are should be good enough to provide enough of a passing threat from the "other" TE to keep the chains moving.

5. The article was on the mark in this case. The Pats are poised to have their best running game since 2004, especially now that Cannon is back. Hopefully he'll get a lot of reps vs the Giants and by the time we get through the Bills and Jets scrimmages, he'll be ready to be the hammer I think he can be, and solidify what is already a very good OL.

6. The fact is that we shouldn't judge this offense on what we see early in the season, either positively OR negatively. Too many new faces to integrate. All we need out of them is to see improvement over the course of the season.

 

[Gumby]

TE is still a ? mark despite the article's rose-colored treatment.

he Patriots have the right resources to do this. Daniel Fells can become the new Aaron Hernandez. He might not have Hernandez’s natural talent, but his skill-set is similar. Jake Ballard, back from the knee injury that wiped out his 2012 season, could fill Rob Gronkowski’s role. So could undrafted rookie Zach Sudfeld. (Gronk is unlikely to play in Week 1 but is expected to return soon.)

It seems like at least this part of the guys (andy benoit) article was in the can waiting on this point in time to release without updating for currency .... Is Fells even healthy enough to fill the AH role; same with Ballard. and is ZS out of the fumble doghouse enough to fill Gronk's role. in other threads more knowledgeable posters than I were supposing Suds is the AH role; not Gronk role. so all that optimism seems a bit out of place (THIS WEEK); but who knows next week after the last preseason and facing the dysfunctional JILLS and more dysfunctional JESTERS all can look rosy.

 

[BradyFTW!]

People keep making that claim around here. It's just not true. There's nobody in the league who gets open faster than Welker, including Amendola. That's an incredible talent.

Amedola's been a solid player when healthy, but he's not Welker. That will be better in some ways (better on the longer passes and possibly a bit more diverse), but worse in others (not as quick to get open, more of an injury risk, but Amendola is not more talented than Welker.

Going to have to disagree with you there. Amendola does just about everything that Welker does, albeit in some cases not quite as well as Welker does, and on top of that he does some things that Welker can't. That said, Welker is still the better player until proven otherwise, simply because you know that he's going to be on the field every Sunday. Which goes right back to the original point: that the gap between Welker and Amendola is not a talent gap.

 

[Deus Irae]

It was obvious to pretty much everybody last year, and for pretty every year beginning in 2007, that Welker gets open faster than anyone else in the league. Post-trade, however, he seems to have slowed remarkably in the eyes of posters, and Amendola seems to have strapped a rocket to his ass.


If they trade Brady this year, he'll miraculously be worse than Blaine Gabbert.

 

[BradyFTW!]

It was obvious to pretty much everybody last year, and for pretty every year beginning in 2007, that Welker gets open faster than anyone else in the league. Post-trade, however, he seems to have slowed remarkably in the eyes of posters, and Amendola seems to have strapped a rocket to his ass.


If they trade Brady this year, he'll miraculously be worse than Blaine Gabbert.

That's disingenuous, to say the least. You're not dealing with the typical homer brigade here: you're taking issue with a lot of posters who have proven over a lot of years that they're generally pretty objective about this stuff.

Also, nobody in this thread has said a word about Welker slowing down, so I can't say for sure where you pulled that claim from, although I have a pretty good guess.

Also, you say "beginning in 2007" as if that's some strange coincidence. It's almost like WRs who get open extremely quickly look better when they have Tom Brady throwing them the ball than someone like Joey Harrington or Sam Bradford. In much the same way that Welker's skill-set highlighted particularly well before he got to New England, it's reasonable to expect the same sort of bump for Amendola ... again, pending his health.

 

[PatsDeb]

It was obvious to pretty much everybody last year, and for pretty every year beginning in 2007, that Welker gets open faster than anyone else in the league. Post-trade, however, he seems to have slowed remarkably in the eyes of posters, and Amendola seems to have strapped a rocket to his ass.


If they trade Brady this year, he'll miraculously be worse than Blaine Gabbert.

LOL, Deus, if we are not homers, then what are we? Amendola looked pretty Welker-ish in the limited time we saw him, but who knows? Here's to hoping the replacement is seamless or even better than we expect.

 

[MTM558]

Amendola is not as quick in a short area as Welker but his he has more straight line speed and is a threat to be go vertical where Welker wasn't. They are very close talent wise but I prefer Amendola's style more. Call it a wash.

Talent wise this team is probably more talented than last years due to the depth we have. Looking at top players here is how I see it.

Gronk = Gronk - No change
Amendola = Welker - No change
KT > Lloyd - Got better
Sudfeld << Hernandez - Got worse

So it is close when just looking at the top 4 guys. The difference is our depth is WAY better this year offensively. We had Edelman last year and he was mostly hurt but now we have Boyce/Dobson over an old Branch and.... I forget.

I am not including Woodhead cause Vereen will just absorb those catches so you won't lose and only gain there too.

I think we have overall more talent but less polish. By the end of the year this offense will be just as good if not better than last year.

I like your optimism and understand your reasoning, but let's pull back just a tad. Last year's starting offense was as follows:

WR: Brandon Lloyd
LT: Nate Solder
LG: Logan Mankins
C: Ryan Wendell
RG: Dan Connolly
RT: Sebastian Vollmer
TE: Rob Gronkowski
TE: Aaron Hernandez
WR: Wes Welker
QB: Tom Brady
RB: Stevan Ridley

Now this year's (projected) starting offense:

WR: Kenbrell Thompkins
LT: Nate Solder
LG: Logan Mankins
C: Ryan Wendell
RG: Dan Connolly
RT: Sebastian Vollmer
TE: Jake Ballard
TE: Zach Sudfeld
WR: Danny Amendola
QB: Tom Brady
RB: Stevan Ridley

Now a few notes:

* Brady is still playing at an elite level, which will always give this team a chance. He is the soul of this offense and this team.

* Running Back could be an improved unit, depending on how depth shapes up. Ridley bulked up and figures to be just as good, if not better, than last year, but you also have to account for Vereen to be receiving much more snaps than last year, as well as Blount/Bolden/Washington to get some situational touches. Overall, I do expect similar production. This could once again be a top-10 rushing team.

* Last year started with Edelman, Lloyd, Salas, Slater and Welker at WR. This year, we can assume that Amendola, Boyce, Dobson, Edelman, Slater and Thompkins will be the WRs. Last year's group lacked depth, but had a stable of proven, durable veterans that were (for the most part) reliable. This year had an overhaul. Amendola will be similar to Welker, but his durability is still a question. Not to mention, his receptions will be shared among Thompkins, Dobson, Boyce, Edelman, and others. Individually, I think the team downgraded everywhere at this position. As a whole, this group has a higher ceiling than those in recent years.

* Tight End will be a revolving door until Gronkowski returns, and even after depending on his health. He needs to be protected until he can prove that he is 100% recovered, or else this offense is going to need ANOTHER overhaul.

* The Offensive line will be top-5 again. Take it to the bank.

As for projections, given personnel, lineups, and schedule, I expect:

* Top-10 scoring offense - Big woop. They go from top-5 to *gasp* top-10. These are the Patriots, and this is Tom Brady's team. Give him whoever and they will still find a way to put up points - and a lot of them.

* Top-10 rushing offense - The backs are ready to breakout, and the offensive line has some consistency.

* Top-15 passing offense - This is a broad projection, given the amount of space it covers. The Patriots will pass a lot, but they will also run a lot. Rookie mistakes are expected.

 

[ausbacker]

People keep making that claim around here. It's just not true. There's nobody in the league who gets open faster than Welker, including Amendola. That's an incredible talent.

Amedola's been a solid player when healthy, but he's not Welker. That will be better in some ways (better on the longer passes and possibly a bit more diverse), but worse in others (not as quick to get open, more of an injury risk, but Amendola is not more talented than Welker.

Amendola creates separation just as quickly as Welker used to. I don't agree with your statement. The query, as you've rightfully pointed out, is health.

 

[grux]

No, and making that claim undermined what was an otherwise solid post.

Then why is he unemployed?

 

[Deus Irae]

That's disingenuous, to say the least...

No, it's not. It's dead-on balls accurate.

 

[Deus Irae]

Then why is he unemployed?

Likely because he's a head case

 

[BradyFTW!]

No, it's not. It's dead-on balls accurate.

No. I'm right and you're wrong. I'm rubber and you're glue.

Believe it or not, I can argue in this way too. It's not hard. It's also not useful.

 

[mgcolby]

Amendola, is taller, faster, quicker (look at his 3 cone), stronger, jumps higher and has as good a hands as Wes if not better...that equals more talented in my book. Not sure what else qualifies?

He gets plenty of separation and gets open very quickly. If its discernible I would like to see the metrics used to substantiate the claim.

Do some forget that Welker only gets open off the line unchallenged? How many times, did they have to get creative with him against physical teams, like the Ravens? Loved what Wes did here and have nothing but respect for his game. But Amendola is 2.0 and brings a substantial upgrade to the offensive versatility.