Amendola is not as quick in a short area as Welker but his he has more straight line speed and is a threat to be go vertical where Welker wasn't. They are very close talent wise but I prefer Amendola's style more. Call it a wash.
Talent wise this team is probably more talented than last years due to the depth we have. Looking at top players here is how I see it.
Gronk = Gronk - No change
Amendola = Welker - No change
KT > Lloyd - Got better
Sudfeld << Hernandez - Got worse
So it is close when just looking at the top 4 guys. The difference is our depth is WAY better this year offensively. We had Edelman last year and he was mostly hurt but now we have Boyce/Dobson over an old Branch and.... I forget.
I am not including Woodhead cause Vereen will just absorb those catches so you won't lose and only gain there too.
I think we have overall more talent but less polish. By the end of the year this offense will be just as good if not better than last year.
I like your optimism and understand your reasoning, but let's pull back just a tad. Last year's starting offense was as follows:
WR: Brandon Lloyd
LT: Nate Solder
LG: Logan Mankins
C: Ryan Wendell
RG: Dan Connolly
RT: Sebastian Vollmer
TE: Rob Gronkowski
TE: Aaron Hernandez
WR: Wes Welker
QB: Tom Brady
RB: Stevan Ridley
Now this year's (projected) starting offense:
WR: Kenbrell Thompkins
LT: Nate Solder
LG: Logan Mankins
C: Ryan Wendell
RG: Dan Connolly
RT: Sebastian Vollmer
TE: Jake Ballard
TE: Zach Sudfeld
WR: Danny Amendola
QB: Tom Brady
RB: Stevan Ridley
Now a few notes:
* Brady is still playing at an elite level, which will always give this team a chance. He is the soul of this offense and this team.
* Running Back could be an improved unit, depending on how depth shapes up. Ridley bulked up and figures to be just as good, if not better, than last year, but you also have to account for Vereen to be receiving much more snaps than last year, as well as Blount/Bolden/Washington to get some situational touches. Overall, I do expect similar production. This could once again be a top-10 rushing team.
* Last year started with Edelman, Lloyd, Salas, Slater and Welker at WR. This year, we can assume that Amendola, Boyce, Dobson, Edelman, Slater and Thompkins will be the WRs. Last year's group lacked depth, but had a stable of proven, durable veterans that were (for the most part) reliable. This year had an overhaul. Amendola will be similar to Welker, but his durability is still a question. Not to mention, his receptions will be shared among Thompkins, Dobson, Boyce, Edelman, and others. Individually, I think the team downgraded everywhere at this position. As a whole, this group has a higher ceiling than those in recent years.
* Tight End will be a revolving door until Gronkowski returns, and even after depending on his health. He needs to be protected until he can prove that he is 100% recovered, or else this offense is going to need ANOTHER overhaul.
* The Offensive line will be top-5 again. Take it to the bank.
As for projections, given personnel, lineups, and schedule, I expect:
* Top-10 scoring offense - Big woop. They go from top-5 to *gasp* top-10. These are the Patriots, and this is Tom Brady's team. Give him whoever and they will still find a way to put up points - and a lot of them.
* Top-10 rushing offense - The backs are ready to breakout, and the offensive line has some consistency.
* Top-15 passing offense - This is a broad projection, given the amount of space it covers. The Patriots will pass a lot, but they will also run a lot. Rookie mistakes are expected.