Is Wes Welker a "System Receiver"?

[mgteich]

1) No, Welker isn't "only" a system receiver. However, he is much more productive as a patriots that he would be almost anywhere else. Playing for the patriots, Welker is one of the best wide receivers in the league.

BTW, list the teams who might be expected to get $9.5M out of Welker in 2012. Welker is simply not a $10M (well $9.5M) for anyone but the patriots.

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2) From a pure business perspective, the patriots have Welker for $9.5M guaranteed plus a $12M option for 2013. From the patriots perspective, given that the $9.5M was worked into the cap relatively easily, this contract structure is fine. A long term contract would get the patriots a 2014 option with the cost of more guaranteed money.

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3) I still think that a long-term contract is possible before the July 15 deadline. Welker is expected to be a highly productive player for 2012, 2013 and possibly 2014.

This is what I don't get about the people advocating paying him. Right now the Pats pretty much control him for 2 years for 21M and only 9.5 of that is guaranteed. Most of the fair contracts talked about would increase the guaranteed money and length without dramatically cutting the salary. How does this benefit the Pats? It sucks, but it seems that there's no good way to work a contract for WW that's mutually beneficial.

 

[BradyFTW!]

So Avenger thinks that Welker is a system receiver *and* that we could replace Brady with Mallett and experience little dropoff? Who, exactly, does he think is responsible for these record-breaking offenses?

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

1) No, Welker isn't "only" a system receiver. However, he is much more productive as a patriots that he would be almost anywhere else. Playing for the patriots, Welker is one of the best wide receivers in the league.

BTW, list the teams who might be expected to get $9.5M out of Welker in 2012. Welker is simply not a $10M (well $9.5M) for anyone but the patriots.

=================

2) From a pure business perspective, the patriots have Welker for $9.5M guaranteed plus a $12M option for 2013. From the patriots perspective, given that the $9.5M was worked into the cap relatively easily, this contract structure is fine. A long term contract would get the patriots a 2014 option with the cost of more guaranteed money.

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3) I still think that a long-term contract is possible before the July 15 deadline. Welker is expected to be a highly productive player for 2012, 2013 and possibly 2014.

Is there any indications that WW is willing to take a discount in the third year? You'd think if that was on the table something could get done. If he isn't then I don't see how this will help the Pats; they just guarantee more money for a 3rd year were they'll likely have to cut him, which would result in the same crapfest franchising him two years will.

 

[Deus Irae]

This is what I don't get about the people advocating paying him. Right now the Pats pretty much control him for 2 years for 21M and only 9.5 of that is guaranteed. Most of the fair contracts talked about would increase the guaranteed money and length without dramatically cutting the salary. How does this benefit the Pats? It sucks, but it seems that there's no good way to work a contract for WW that's mutually beneficial.

This is incorrect.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

This is what I don't get about the people advocating paying him. Right now the Pats pretty much control him for 2 years for 21M and only 9.5 of that is guaranteed. Most of the fair contracts talked about would increase the guaranteed money and length without dramatically cutting the salary. How does this benefit the Pats? It sucks, but it seems that there's no good way to work a contract for WW that's mutually beneficial.

Because they could control him for 3-4 years for roughly the same guaranteed money and in the process gain the kind of cap flexibility they generally treasure. And in those 3rd or 4th years they can bust his balls to take an unguaranteed salary cut or hit the road. This way he hits their cap at $9.5M and $11.4M in two flat cap years and they don't control him beyond that (unless of course he's still setting records and they decide he's worth the QB franchise amount for one more year...

They offered him $16M for those same 2 years last fall. Offering him $4M more for essentially an option on his rights for 2 more years at as little as minimum salary in those final 2 seasons after requisite ball busting if his production isn't as consistent doesn't seem like a tremendous risk vs. the possibility he's still wildly let alone moderately productive at age 33-34 but he's not your's anymore and you took $21M in cap hits in the process because you chose to tag him twice. Hell, they handed Chad $6M up front on the misconception he'd be wildly productive in a complicated system at age 33 when he was coming off a down year when he wasn't even moderately productive in an uncomplicated system at age 32...

Here is a simplistic 4 year deal for Welker that would guarantee him $21M (and within the first year). Signing bonus $8M. 2012 salary $9.5M fully guaranteed. 2013 roster bonus $3M guaranteed, salary $3.5M. 2014 salary only $6M. 2015 salary only $7M. Cap hits $11.5M, $8.5M, $8M, $9M. 2013 and 2014 cap hits if we squeeze his balls to take a haircut, $5M, $3M. Dead cap if cut in 2015 $2M. Dead cap if cut in 2014 $4M can be split over two remaining seasons. Maybe if you like to live dangerously you add in some pro bowl or receptions incentives... Many ways for either side to spin that as a win.

As one pundit noted, Wes caught more balls in the Buffalo loss than Chad did in a season. Wes was paid $2.75M for his efforts, Chad was paid $6M. For a team seemingly intent on not making costly mistakes...this is akin to shutting the barn door after the horse got out. They believed Chad would be worth $4M per between 33-35. Oddly they seem to now be saying Wes will be worth nada in the same time frame. That's not just a foolish premise, it's a needless one to persue.

 

[IllegalContact]

mesko is a system punter, ghostkowski is a system kicker and danny aiken is a system long-snapper

 

[patsderoer]

What makes the Patriots system? Brady + G + H? Welker put up 1.2k without them in 2008.

 

[LivinLovin&Breathin_Brady]

I think Welker is a system WR. I don't think he'd be as good as he is in NE anywhere else, I don't care who the QB is. I think he's worth the money in NE, but he wouldn't be worth it anywhere else. Considering his age and injuries, I wouldn't sign him to no more than three years for 24 million. He can easily be replaced in NE, they change the system as the players go. He's not that big of a need, IMO.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Meaningless question. Every receiver that ever thrived with the Pats were "system receivers," in the sense that they thrived in the Pats' system.

You want natural athletes that could light up the scoreboard despite the lack of a playbook, practice, discipline, or assignment of roles? Otherwise every data point is a combination of a team's system and a player's abilities.

The better question is whether you can plug in any old guy and get 100+ receptions per year. The answer, as Reche Caldwell reminds us, is no. Caveat: I love the bug-eyed glandular freak for reaching for his absolute ceiling with the Pats.

But the role combined with the man is always the measure of a player's performance. The same crap (of course you guys know this) was the book on Brady until they threw him some shiny new toys in 07.

But truthfully, does he have the strongest arm in the league? No. Did he ever? No. Does he have outstanding athleticism and "escapability"? No. He can shift the pocket, which buys him time to make the on-target throw. Do you have a QB in mind you'd rather have? For me... no.

Someone use to have as his sig "We're not collecting talent. We're building a team." (A Belichick quote.)

Now granted you go out and get the most talented guys you can, within the paradigm of what you plan to do with your team. It's about making the fits work with what you want to do.

Think about that quote, and tell me how you can say anybody in any position is anything but a "system" [your position here.]

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

This is incorrect.

Good talk.

Because they could control him for 3-4 years for roughly the same guaranteed money and in the process gain the kind of cap flexibility they generally treasure. And in those 3rd or 4th years they can bust his balls to take an unguaranteed salary cut or hit the road. This way he hits their cap at $9.5M and $11.4M in two flat cap years and they don't control him beyond that (unless of course he's still setting records and they decide he's worth the QB franchise amount for one more year...

They offered him $16M for those same 2 years last fall. Offering him $4M more for essentially an option on his rights for 2 more years at as little as minimum salary in those final 2 seasons after requisite ball busting if his production isn't as consistent doesn't seem like a tremendous risk vs. the possibility he's still wildly let alone moderately productive at age 33-34 but he's not your's anymore and you took $21M in cap hits in the process because you chose to tag him twice. Hell, they handed Chad $6M up front on the misconception he'd be wildly productive in a complicated system at age 33 when he was coming off a down year when he wasn't even moderately productive in an uncomplicated system at age 32...

Here is a simplistic 4 year deal for Welker that would guarantee him $21M (and within the first year). Signing bonus $8M. 2012 salary $9.5M fully guaranteed. 2013 roster bonus $3M guaranteed, salary $3.5M. 2014 salary only $6M. 2015 salary only $7M. Cap hits $11.5M, $8.5M, $8M, $9M. 2013 and 2014 cap hits if we squeeze his balls to take a haircut, $5M, $3M. Dead cap if cut in 2015 $2M. Dead cap if cut in 2014 $4M can be split over two remaining seasons. Maybe if you like to live dangerously you add in some pro bowl or receptions incentives... Many ways for either side to spin that as a win.

As one pundit noted, Wes caught more balls in the Buffalo loss than Chad did in a season. Wes was paid $2.75M for his efforts, Chad was paid $6M. For a team seemingly intent on not making costly mistakes...this is akin to shutting the barn door after the horse got out. They believed Chad would be worth $4M per between 33-35. Oddly they seem to now be saying Wes will be worth nada in the same time frame. That's not just a foolish premise, it's a needless one to persue.

I'd be in favor of a deal like that getting done. It'd be a solid way to reward a guy for doing all the right things, while limiting the risk and actually getting a few benefits for the team. However it does double the guaranteed money (at this moment in time) while only cutting his pay for the next two years by 1M. If what's come out is true, it sounds like the Pats have minimal interest in years, so they're just trying to leverage guaranteed vs actual $$$. I see where they're coming from, but I think WW deserves better.

 

[Deus Irae]

Good talk.

Thanks. The major mistake seemed so obvious that I thought you'd just correct it. I seem to have misjudged what your action would be, though. Oh, well...

 

[BradyFTW!]

Is there any indications that WW is willing to take a discount in the third year? You'd think if that was on the table something could get done. If he isn't then I don't see how this will help the Pats; they just guarantee more money for a 3rd year were they'll likely have to cut him, which would result in the same crapfest franchising him two years will.

The contract that the Patriots wanted to give him was 2 years, $16 million, fully guaranteed. More guaranteed money, but less money overall than just franchising him twice. Barring something borderline catastrophic happening this season, it would have been a better deal for the Pats to have signed him to the contract that they offered.

Beyond that, however, there are a couple of other elements at play. For one, the current strategy locks up the franchise tag for the next two years, and kills the Patriots' ability to use it as leverage in negotiations with anyone who they may wish to re-up (Chung and Vollmer come immediately to mind).

 

[lurker1965]

Yes. Every player is a "system" player, but I know what you mean.

Yes, sort of. He fits here because BB knows what he can and can't do. If he was with, say the Jaguars, his numbers would suffer because THE JAGUARS SUCK.

The first difference would be the QB. The second would be a game plan that calls for him to run deep and "take the cover off." The third would be an overall suckitude that seeps into all players who know they have no hope. (Not Jaguar specific - you can name any "non-contender" with nothing to play for by week 10.)

But to say the Patriots are the ONLY team that will use him correctly is a foolish overstatement. Don't ask for an example - every other team changes too much - look at Indy. If you need an example, in Green Bay he'd be about the same. "About" because it is a different "system."

 

[VJCPatriot]

Here's one way of looking at it - is Terrell Davis a system RB?
Absolutely, during the Shannahan era, just about every RB could come in to be the starter and be VERY productive.
But Terrell Davis was also a champion quality player and a key cog on championship teams for the Broncos.
As great as Elway was, I don't think he wins those rings if Terrell Davis had not also appeared on the scene and given balance, power, and grit to the Denver offense.

Wes Welker can also arguably be called a system WR. But he has played in our system to such an exceptional level, that it doesn't matter if he is a 'system' player or not. Without him, this Pats offense would be a lot less potent. In 2011, a healthy Welker, 2 years removed from his devastating 2009 injury, showed us his versatility and the fact that he is a top 5 WR in the league, regardless of position, flanker, slot, whatever you label it.

 

[mayoclinic]

Sure Welker's a "system receiver". So are Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Steve Smith, Mike Wallace and every other successful WR. They all play within a system which exploits their undeniable unique skills, just as Welker plays in a system tailor made to his. Mike Wallace is a great vertical threat WR, but he's partly so successful in Pittsburgh because of Ben Rothlishberger being so hard to take down and so effective on broken plays that allow Wallace time to get deep.

No receiver is good enough to produce if the QB doesn't throw the ball to him. Put Welker in another system which relies less on the slot and which reduces the number of times he's targeted, and his numbers will go down. Does that make him any less of a player? Put him in an offense with a top QB and make him a focal point, and he would probably produce similarly to what he has in New England.

Welker is a unique and great WR by any standard. I don't think that's in question, whatever other discussions there are regarding his value to the team, how he should be used given the other toys, how much he should be paid, and how long a contract he should get. We've all been priviliged to watch him and to be able to call him a Patriot.

 

[kudzif]

Wes would definitely start for most teams as a slot receiver but playing for the patriots dramatically inflates his numbers.Thus i would say it's a little bit of both.VJCPatriot Wes is not versatile because if he can't play on the perimeter as he would fail that's why the patriots don't give him lot's of snaps outside.The emergence of the tight ends has devalued the importance of Wes because if he was to leave the offense would still be great but it would be different.

 

[OhExaulted1]

This is your chance to vote on whether Welker, given his current age and ability, is a "system receiver".

Let's define a system receiver as a receiver who puts up much better numbers in a particular offense (including that offense's quarterback ) than he would with most of the other 31 teams, assuming equal playing time.

Our boy Wes defies the "system" label. He catches balls and moves the chains. BB tells his guys "just do your job". No one does it better than Wes. Plus he's our emergency kicker and back-up KR and PR guy. He'd race down on ST coverage if asked.

Wes is a football player. I don't care what he makes. Sign him long term and spread it out. We can"t afford to loose him. Eff the salary-cap implications.

 

[LetsGoBuffalo]

This deal should not really be THAT hard to complete in my opinion, unless there's something that we don't know like Wes asking for 10+ million or 5-6 yrs, but I find that hard to believe.

IMO one of the things working against both parties getting a deal done is the stupid money WRs got in FA this offseason. Why would Welker accept a 2 yr $16M deal when Pierre Garcon got a higher AAV this offseason? I mean Laurent Freakin Robinson got an AAV of $6.5M. It's nuts, and I haven't even gotten to the $11M the Bucs gave Vincent Jackson, an inferior player to WW.

On the Pats' side, Welker is 31 and has carried an extremely heavy load for a guy his size. Why invest heavily in a guy that is on the wrong side of 30, is small, and has been overworked?

Both sides have legitimate reasons to dig their heels in.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

IMO one of the things working against both parties getting a deal done is the stupid money WRs got in FA this offseason. Why would Welker accept a 2 yr $16M deal when Pierre Garcon got a higher AAV this offseason? I mean Laurent Freakin Robinson got an AAV of $6.5M. It's nuts, and I haven't even gotten to the $11M the Bucs gave Vincent Jackson, an inferior player to WW.

On the Pats' side, Welker is 31 and has carried an extremely heavy load for a guy his size. Why invest heavily in a guy that is on the wrong side of 30, is small, and has been overworked?

Both sides have legitimate reasons to dig their heels in.

I'd be in favor of a deal like that getting done. It'd be a solid way to reward a guy for doing all the right things, while limiting the risk and actually getting a few benefits for the team. However it does double the guaranteed money (at this moment in time) while only cutting his pay for the next two years by 1M. If what's come out is true, it sounds like the Pats have minimal interest in years, so they're just trying to leverage guaranteed vs actual $$$. I see where they're coming from, but I think WW deserves better.

But see, that's the part of the equation that really makes no sense. They were willing to guarantee him $16M for this year and next year last year. Now, they aren't. What changed in the interim? Nothing as far as we can see. He put up his best season ever in the interim... He was always going to be 31 and 32 in those seasons...

The other interesting thing I've only heard mentioned briefly was that he signed his tender on Monday and on Tuesday his agents were in town for negotiations and it was then he made the comments (maybe because Karen caught him just after he'd heard that 2/$16 was no longer on the table.

I never doubted Wes would show up and early and play under the tag. He says he's OK with playing year to year. That's the chip on his shoulder talking, I'd expect nothing else because he's always had to prove his doubters and critics wrong. And he doesn't resent that, he embraces it and uses it to self motivate. It's part of the bond he and Brady share. But he shouldn't have to go year to year. If anyone has earned the right not to have to here it's Welker and Brady because of their consistency and their makeup (continued work ethic despite success).

 

[patsinthesnow]

Wes Welker is a hell of a WR, but the system certainly helps him. If you think Welker gets 122 receptions, 1500+ yards, and 9 TDs on an another team, than that's your opinion, but I find that nuts.

But it's a moot point, if you UNDERSTAND the system , the system & TFB will help ANYONE, not just Welker.

06 Reche Caldwell
07-present Welker
07-09 Randy Moss
06-08 Jabar Gaffney (system helped initially but than improved on another team)
10-11 Deion Branch

The system helps all WRs become better than they are, the problem is it's hard finding players that understand the system.
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Now, if you put Welker on the Rams and Amendola on the Pats, I'm not sure who would have better numbers, but Welker would still be better obviously.