Is Wes Welker a "System Receiver"?

[jason423]

But see, that's the part of the equation that really makes no sense. They were willing to guarantee him $16M for this year and next year last year. Now, they aren't. What changed in the interim? Nothing as far as we can see. He put up his best season ever in the interim... He was always going to be 31 and 32 in those seasons...

The other interesting thing I've only heard mentioned briefly was that he signed his tender on Monday and on Tuesday his agents were in town for negotiations and it was then he made the comments (maybe because Karen caught him just after he'd heard that 2/$16 was no longer on the table.

I think what you have to look at is the situation changing moreso than the player. Since that offer was made three things have happened that I think affect the teams decision making process. One is that they now have a pretty good amount of capable WRs on the roster that were not there when the offer was made. Gronkowski also proved during last season to be a mega money player that is going to get huge money pretty soon and they may want to extend him a year early.

Another is that Welker signed his tender and gave up all his leverage. By agreeing to play for 1 year for 9.5 million what urgency does NE have to sign him for 2 or 3 years especially after he comes off a career year? They have a year to see if his body holds up and if some of these options prove to be valuable. Im sure if Chad Ochocinco wasnt so terrible Welker never would have had 1500 yards as there would have been an additional target in the offense. If Lloyd works out, and Branch/Gaffney/Ocho/etc... give a reasonable 3rd WR option, Welkers numbers fall and New England adjusts the salary offers accordingly. Thats why its probably best, especially for a guy probably leaving the prime of his career, to hold off on signing the tender. I think he had every intention of doing that as well until players starting taking to Twitter and things like that about getting on board and not thinking too much of himself. I dont get why they did that but I think it affected his decision making.

The other thing was that Colston signed a pretty crummy deal out in New Orleans. He doesnt get targeted nearly as much as Welker but hes a YAC guy in an explosive shorter pass role in the offense. Its less than Boldin made in his extension a few years back with the Ravens, who also fills a similar role. New England may see that as a market correction to the slot style WR in the league.

 

[bagwell368]

Yes, he's a "system" receiver and he plays with a "system" QB in that the "system" has been developed to take advantage of each of their special skills. He catches more balls because he plays for the Pats and with Tom Brady, but the Pats and Tom Brady have more completions because Wes Welker is there to make them.

The Pats are being stupid for playing hard ball with Welker.

Why? He old by NFL WR standards, he's small, he's suffered a major injury already...

Then to, BB has gone out and stuffed the team with FA WR's..

Finally the Pats have great TE's and WR's that cover similar areas of the field.

If we sign him to a lavish deal that goes 3-4 years, do you think it's worth losing AH over that sort of a deal? I certainly do not.

BB will go and pay line players like Seymour and Mankins a boat load and Brady. But he didn't pay Samuel and Branch and quite a few others, and except for two cases absolutely picked the right guys to deal or let walk. If BB trades Welker, or lets him walk it wouldn't surprise me at all.

Welker and his agent have been making noises for a good year and a half over this issue. Seemingly hard ball or a deal is the game.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

"Is Brady a system QB?"
"Is Welker a system WR?"
3 years from now it'll be "Is Tavon a system safety?"

 

[UK_Pat37]

Welker would have success wherever he goes to an extent, but of course there is an element of him being a system player...and it helps that Tom Brady is in that system and he has a HC who is famed for building his system around his players and not the other way around.

Welker has a specific skill set and we play to it with one of the best QBs to ever play the game throwing him the football. You'd be stupid to not think that helps.

Would he crash and burn elsewhere? I don't think he would but I don't think he would have anywhere close to a season like the one just gone.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Sure Welker's a "system receiver". So are Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Steve Smith, Mike Wallace and every other successful WR. They all play within a system which exploits their undeniable unique skills, just as Welker plays in a system tailor made to his. Mike Wallace is a great vertical threat WR, but he's partly so successful in Pittsburgh because of Ben Rothlishberger being so hard to take down and so effective on broken plays that allow Wallace time to get deep.

No receiver is good enough to produce if the QB doesn't throw the ball to him. Put Welker in another system which relies less on the slot and which reduces the number of times he's targeted, and his numbers will go down. Does that make him any less of a player? Put him in an offense with a top QB and make him a focal point, and he would probably produce similarly to what he has in New England.

Welker is a unique and great WR by any standard. I don't think that's in question, whatever other discussions there are regarding his value to the team, how he should be used given the other toys, how much he should be paid, and how long a contract he should get. We've all been priviliged to watch him and to be able to call him a Patriot.

The problem is the NFL mediot mindset.

It's the same one that places a premium on yards gained late in the 4th quarter down 3/4 scores.

Guys like C Johnson and Fitz will always be placed on the premium based on their physical skillset......yet Cruz and Welker were WR's 1/2 last year.

The only way to explain WW is the "system". The reality is a "#1 WR" exists because everyone else is simply not that good.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I think what you have to look at is the situation changing moreso than the player. Since that offer was made three things have happened that I think affect the teams decision making process. One is that they now have a pretty good amount of capable WRs on the roster that were not there when the offer was made. Gronkowski also proved during last season to be a mega money player that is going to get huge money pretty soon and they may want to extend him a year early.

Another is that Welker signed his tender and gave up all his leverage. By agreeing to play for 1 year for 9.5 million what urgency does NE have to sign him for 2 or 3 years especially after he comes off a career year? They have a year to see if his body holds up and if some of these options prove to be valuable. Im sure if Chad Ochocinco wasnt so terrible Welker never would have had 1500 yards as there would have been an additional target in the offense. If Lloyd works out, and Branch/Gaffney/Ocho/etc... give a reasonable 3rd WR option, Welkers numbers fall and New England adjusts the salary offers accordingly. Thats why its probably best, especially for a guy probably leaving the prime of his career, to hold off on signing the tender. I think he had every intention of doing that as well until players starting taking to Twitter and things like that about getting on board and not thinking too much of himself. I dont get why they did that but I think it affected his decision making.

The other thing was that Colston signed a pretty crummy deal out in New Orleans. He doesnt get targeted nearly as much as Welker but hes a YAC guy in an explosive shorter pass role in the offense. Its less than Boldin made in his extension a few years back with the Ravens, who also fills a similar role. New England may see that as a market correction to the slot style WR in the league.

I get what you're saying, but you could counter most of that with concepts like those new pieces only exist on paper thus far and half of them won't make the roster and at the start of the 2011 season you'd have though the ones that existed (Ocho and Branch and the young TE's coming off solid rookie seasons plus a developmental young speedster not to mention two drafted RB's) would have lowered his production that season...only they didn't. Neither did playing along side Moss and Stallworth and Gaffney, or losing Moss, and Stallworth and Gaffney or even playing with Matt Cassel at QB. Next to Brady Welker has been the one constant on that offense.

And if they are thinking the way you surmise, holding out at 31 on half as much as he made in the last 5 years was never a viable strategy for this player. Mankins could take the hardline stance because he had already made double digit millions in his 5 year 1st round contract and at 27 all he was risking was losing a little more than $2M in a half season holdout. Considering the deal he landed the following August, he is one of the rare birds who basically covered his losses since he ended up signing a deal that averages $2M per more than the one they were offering at the time. Usually player don't make up the lost money from the holdout season. Even Asante had little trouble with hardlining it because he was 26 had suddenly emerged as a hot commodity at a marquee position.

As for the Colston comp, he still got $19M reportedly guaranteed on a 5 year $37-40M deal depending on his incentive structure and while he's 2 year younger he hasn't been as productive and he's had multiple micro fracture surgeries on both knees as well as a broken hand and collar bone and has already missed four times as many games in the last 5 seasons as Welker due to injury. Bill has even waxed poetic about Wes' committment, work ethic, performance consistency and durability.

I just don't get their reticence to do a 3-4 year extension with that guy. We all know it's all about the guaranteed money and they were close enough to close the gap in exchange for rights that if they choose to squeeze him or even walk away in 2-3 seasons won't cost them much if anything if structured appropriately.

Only thing I can surmise is either someone in the FO doesn't share his appreciation for those qualities or the concussion conundrum has them all spooked and they don't want him to go out the way Wayne Chrebet did. But that's not really fair to Welker unless there is something we don't know about... I do think one of the disconnects between former players and current players is that one sees the other as threatening his ability to remain in what has become a much more financially lucrative game. The Patriots ownership claims they want him to retire a Patriot, but they also seem to want that to be in the next year or two...

Only other thing that has changed since they made that $16M offer is he failed to catch a pass, something he infrequently does, at the worst possible time. And I'd really hate to think that has anything to do with it, too.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Why? He old by NFL WR standards, he's small, he's suffered a major injury already...

Then to, BB has gone out and stuffed the team with FA WR's..

Finally the Pats have great TE's and WR's that cover similar areas of the field.

If we sign him to a lavish deal that goes 3-4 years, do you think it's worth losing AH over that sort of a deal? I certainly do not.

BB will go and pay line players like Seymour and Mankins a boat load and Brady. But he didn't pay Samuel and Branch and quite a few others, and except for two cases absolutely picked the right guys to deal or let walk. If BB trades Welker, or lets him walk it wouldn't surprise me at all.

Welker and his agent have been making noises for a good year and a half over this issue. Seemingly hard ball or a deal is the game.

He is on the wrong side of 30, barely. So are most of the other WR's on the roster...not to mention only one of them is signed beyond this season, unless you want to include 34 year old Ocho...

He rebounded from his one major injury in record time and two years removed from it he raised his own bar.

Bill has stuffed this team with FA WR's more than once.

As Brady often reiterates, the young TE's are developing quite well but the key for them is to prove they can continue to and maintain consistent production and be durable as DC's adapt to them. And signing Welker to a 3-4 year deal won't impact their contracts one iota. Bill will place a value on them, too, and it may not be what their agents believe their market value is. Neither will see a deal here before the end of this season at the earliest. And they may choose not to do a deal until they have FA to leverage. And one of them may want to have a shot at playing for a team where he is THE TE. And by then this team may wish it still had Welker on a salary only 2 year deal for their own leverage.

Teams often sign guys who crucify them when facing them. Happened with Welker here.

Welker has made less noise than any player on this team. When asked for comments by media (because of his production exceeding his contract exponentially) and only in the last season he has said while he'd prefer a long term extension his contract wasn't an issue. I really don't know what some of you expect, but you probably won't be happy when Rosenhaus starts hinting about Gronkowski's deal let alone when Welker's agent David Dunn selects his strategy for dealing with NE for his other clients, Hernandez and Solder...

 

[bagwell368]

He is on the wrong side of 30, barely.

The difference between under 30 and over 30 receivers is clear. Slide it to 32, and it's avalanche.

So are most of the other WR's on the roster...not to mention only one of them is signed beyond this season, unless you want to include 34 year old Ocho...

Hunh? Lloyd is a one year deal? I thought it was three...

He rebounded from his one major injury in record time and two years removed from it he raised his own bar.

11 drops leading the league his year back and 5 last year. Doesn't seem totally back in that dimension.

Bill has stuffed this team with FA WR's more than once.

Given what BB trotted out for WR in 2005 for instance, I'd say that he's as apt to deal a top WR off the team. Considering how much deeper we are than back then, and that Welker is an asset that is going to drop value quickly over the next few years, trading him makes a lot of sense.

And signing Welker to a 3-4 year deal won't impact their contracts one iota.

Let's see in 2014 do you want Gronk and AH signed long term - or just one with an aging Welker? Remember the cap... BB doesn't pay forward to reward what was done in the past. There isn't any way at all that Welker gives the same production the next 3 years as his last 3 healthy years - either in games played or recs, or YPC. Not one iota? Then lets sign everyone... every move has a cost - pro and con. I just see Welker ahead turning more and more con each year.

Bill will place a value on them, too, and it may not be what their agents believe their market value is.

My guess is that if AH suffers injuries again this year or next year, he won't get a deal unless he wants under market.

BB might have bucked on a few guys - Seymour twice, Mankins, Wilfork - but eventually he keeps the ones that look good to go long term. If Gronk is healthy and productive at contract time he will command more than anyone from the Pats except for Brady, and they will decide then if its worth it, or extend him early to mitigate risk, or walk. But BB isn't going to sign multiple guys for big money that have no long term place here - because it will block other younger and projected to be more productive players.

And one of them may want to have a shot at playing for a team where he is THE TE. And by then this team may wish it still had Welker on a salary only 2 year deal for their own leverage.

Two years from now, or two years going in 2014? Whatever deal is in place it won't be for premium money or BB will renegotiate him, deal him, or cut him if its neccessary - for the TE's or just on principle.

Teams often sign guys who crucify them when facing them. Happened with Welker here.

No matter where he goes he won't be as productive as he is here. I don't fear his production, and that's not a legitimate reason to lavish money on him.

Welker has made less noise than any player on this team. When asked for comments by media (because of his production exceeding his contract exponentially) and only in the last season he has said while he'd prefer a long term extension his contract wasn't an issue. I really don't know what some of you expect, but you probably won't be happy when Rosenhaus starts hinting about Gronkowski's deal let alone when Welker's agent David Dunn selects his strategy for dealing with NE for his other clients, Hernandez and Solder...

Sorry Welkers agent talks more then Welker and earlier then Welker. They must be included as a group. He wasn't as obnoxious as Mankins for sure.

Going forward if all are healthy, Solder and AH are distinctly more important long term then Welker. BB doesn't fear acrimony, but, he will fuel himself with it, and if the player isn't key enough, take it out on him.


I'd trade Welker today for a 2nd and 5th (even projected to be low in the round). I'd either trade for a NT/DT (using those picks perhaps and more if the player is great enough) that might be getting a bit too expensive for a team to carry, or for extending a contract or two, and carry another WR out of our collection.

 

[jason423]

I get what you're saying, but you could counter most of that with concepts like those new pieces only exist on paper thus far and half of them won't make the roster and at the start of the 2011 season you'd have though the ones that existed (Ocho and Branch and the young TE's coming off solid rookie seasons plus a developmental young speedster not to mention two drafted RB's) would have lowered his production that season...only they didn't. Neither did playing along side Moss and Stallworth and Gaffney, or losing Moss, and Stallworth and Gaffney or even playing with Matt Cassel at QB. Next to Brady Welker has been the one constant on that offense.

Only thing I can surmise is either someone in the FO doesn't share his appreciation for those qualities or the concussion conundrum has them all spooked and they don't want him to go out the way Wayne Chrebet did. But that's not really fair to Welker unless there is something we don't know about.

I think everyone would agree its an on paper thing, but if Welker is going to play anyway it pays for the Pats (or any team in the situation) to let it play out and then worry about doing the deal next season. I kind of think the negotiating conflict comes from Welkers side saying that he is as productive as Larry Fitzgerald (and statistically he has been the last three years) and willing to play for much less than that with New England countering with the idea that he doesnt really play the same position, which is also true. I would imagine almost every number that Welkers group throws out is countered with "well he only gets stats that good because we throw to him 10 times a a game whereas everyone else is thrown to 7 or 8". Of course they come back and say "you throw to him that often because he is that important to the Patriots and Tom Brady". So you get a stalemate with the Pats simply saying lets see how important a role he fills this year.

Did Welker ever have concussion issues before? I thought I remember something from this season but didnt think he missed anytime. I know Chrebet had something like 5 or 6. I was sitting close to where he took his final one of his career against the Chargers. It was nasty. As soon as you heard the hit you knew it was a problem and then he just wasn't moving. It was such a bad season for the Jets and it was just sad to watch Chrebet go out that way.

 

[NEP4Life]

Now that the poll has closed, it seems most voters (55) feel Welker is, to some degree, a system receiver.

The result is is close though, because 47 voters feel he isn't.

 

[nukin]

Every player in the NFL is a System Player. Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning, Drew Brees (Although I personally think the later is a DOME QB)... not as good with no offensive line or knowledge of what routes receivers will run.

 

[Ron Sellers]

Now that the poll has closed, it seems most voters (55) feel Welker is, to some degree, a system receiver.

The result is is close though, because 47 voters feel he isn't.

Just like almost all polls and statistics, the results can be interpreted to say whatever you want them to say.

"Over half of fans of the Patriots admit that Welker is a system receiver. Even the biased homers admit that he's over rated!"

or

"Fewer than 25% think he puts up much better numbers than he would with any other team. The rest are probably just chronic complainers or people still mad because they lost a bet on the Super Bowl."

 

[Spergon Wynn]

Every player in the NFL is a System Player. Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning, Drew Brees (Although I personally think the later is a DOME QB)... not as good with no offensive line or knowledge of what routes receivers will run.

Thank you! I've been saying this for years. If this wasn't the case then NFL would just be backyard football.