Big name FA like Mario Williams, Cliff Avril, etc; are they worth the money?

[Deus Irae]

Sometimes yes, sometimes no

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Sometimes yes, sometimes no

In a few occasions, yes
In the vast majority, no

 

[stevedogc]

I was very much for the Pats going after Williams, but I am starting to back off that one. If he is really looking to cash in, I dont see that he is worth the money. He has been injured the last two seasons and has only 2 career seasons with double digit sacks. If he is looking to get a Peppers type deal (14 mil. season avg.) then no way. Id only offer him somewhere along the lines of 10 mil. per season which is around what Lamar Woodley got last season. He only missed 1 game during the prior 3 seasons and had 3 consecutive 10+ sack seasons (35 total). I think Williams is hyped up a bit cause he is a former 1st overall pick.

Not to mention the Pats got 20 sacks last season from two guys (Carter, Anderson) that BB paid bottom dollar for. So I really doubt he would spend big bucks on Williams.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

To summarize Belichick, teams aren't good or bad because of a few decisions. You have to look at many, many decisions that they make. Super Bowl winners make plenty of mistakes, but they hit a lot more than they miss. Likewise, bottom dwellers will sometimes make a great move in terms of player value, but not enough of them.

When it comes to free agency, you have to consider what free agency really is. Here is a terrific article about free agents, and it's especially relevant in the salary cap era.

Advanced NFL Stats: Why Free Agent Signings Turn Out So Disappointing

From an economic standpoint, there is almost a zero percent chance that teams can long survive off of free agent bidding victories. This is essentially what the Redskins tried to do for a long time. It is an economic/strategic nightmare when you truly consider what you are doing when you are outbidding other teams for players.

On a case by case basis, sometimes the player really is worth it. And if you are drafting well and have some money left over, it isn't always a bad idea to pay big money to a high impact player. We have seen the Pats bring in plenty of big name free agents over the years, but far more, we've seen them bow out of bidding wars the moment it starts seeming "risky" in any way.

To the poster who said teams never win Super Bowls by getting big name free agents, that statement is true in the salary cap era but not necessarily true outside of it. Anyone remember the Niners and Cowboys bidding for Deion Sanders, with both teams realizing he's the one who'd put them over the top?

 

[signbabybrady]

Bottom line is its a team sport.

Put the money aside there have been plenty of FA who qualify as one guy putting a team over the top heck Rodney almost fits.
Rodney came to us cheap but with hindsight would you not have paid top dollar for the same production?

 

[Ring 6]

To summarize Belichick, teams aren't good or bad because of a few decisions. You have to look at many, many decisions that they make. Super Bowl winners make plenty of mistakes, but they hit a lot more than they miss. Likewise, bottom dwellers will sometimes make a great move in terms of player value, but not enough of them.

When it comes to free agency, you have to consider what free agency really is. Here is a terrific article about free agents, and it's especially relevant in the salary cap era.

Advanced NFL Stats: Why Free Agent Signings Turn Out So Disappointing

From an economic standpoint, there is almost a zero percent chance that teams can long survive off of free agent bidding victories. This is essentially what the Redskins tried to do for a long time. It is an economic/strategic nightmare when you truly consider what you are doing when you are outbidding other teams for players.

On a case by case basis, sometimes the player really is worth it. And if you are drafting well and have some money left over, it isn't always a bad idea to pay big money to a high impact player. We have seen the Pats bring in plenty of big name free agents over the years, but far more, we've seen them bow out of bidding wars the moment it starts seeming "risky" in any way.

To the poster who said teams never win Super Bowls by getting big name free agents, that statement is true in the salary cap era but not necessarily true outside of it. Anyone remember the Niners and Cowboys bidding for Deion Sanders, with both teams realizing he's the one who'd put them over the top?

Good points.

The basic economics of a capped league say that you win when the play you get out of your players exceeds their cost.

The best teams get bigger contributions from players in their rookie contracts, cheap FAs, etc. Good teams need good players too, not just cheap above average ones, but the hardest way to get more return than your costs is to bring in the guy who is considered the best at his position, and get in a bidding war. Even if he lives up to expectations its an economic wash, but the cost of decline, injury or a worse play becuase of a change of scheme, or even just a lack of effort after getting the big money hits a lot harder.

Signing a 10 mill a year player can be worth it, but you are surely diminishing either a few starter spots or a ton of depth in the trade off, so you better be right. This is why good teams seem to have moat of the biggest paychecks on their roster be the guys they retained rather than brought in.

 

[Gronkandez]

Re: Mario Williams\Cliff Avril, etc

I think Wallace is a fine player, but having to pay him top dollar AND give up a #1 pick makes it a bad move, no matter how good he is, because you can take the next best guy even if you have to pay him a little more and still keep your #1 pick. With the new rookie cap, #1 picks that work out are the best way to keep your talent level higher than its price, which is how you build a contender in a capped league.
No matter how good Wallace is, it will be very hard to get more out of him that what he costs, because you are maxing out his cost.

I don't think Wallace will get 'top dollar' meaning, not as much as he would get if he were a free agent. How many teams will be willing to offer up a first round pick for him? two? three tops? He will have to take the best contract he can get from those two or three teams or else play for the RFA amount of like $1.9M or whatever it is.

 

[Ring 6]

Re: Mario Williams\Cliff Avril, etc

I don't think Wallace will get 'top dollar' meaning, not as much as he would get if he were a free agent. How many teams will be willing to offer up a first round pick for him? two? three tops? He will have to take the best contract he can get from those two or three teams or else play for the RFA amount of like $1.9M or whatever it is.

I think historically these guys get top dollar if they get an offer. I don't remember the last time a team surrendered a 1 for an RFA.

 

[Deus Irae]

In a few occasions, yes
In the vast majority, no

While I'm sure someone's done a study, it's not public, and we don't really have a valid answer to this question because "big name" is really not defined. However, looking at the Patriots' biggest FA 'gets' under BB:

Colvin - Worth the money, although an injury clearly made him a lesser player
Thomas - Worth the money year one, not worth it after that

 

[Christopher Patriot]

If Mario Williams hits the free agency market with no price of a draft pick,
you absolutely have to consider backing the brink truck up for him.
Belichick has said before theres only so many men 6ft 6 with a wingspan and able to run like a gazelle well, not only does he have the built the, speed, but were not talking what if's were talking a sure thing.

When you look at the players Belichick has spent big money on it's defense,
Roosevelt Colvin, Adalius Thomas, Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork, and he flirted with the idea of Peppers before Chicago opened the vault.

Now let's look at this from a business position, Able to play the 4-3 as well as the 3-4 incredibly athletic, has mentioned he wants to be on a winning team,
A sure thing, to trade up to get Coples it would take both our firsts and maybe more. I honestly believe if you spend big on defense it's the front 7 and he's shown that with the huge extension to Mayo.
If you attain Mario you know have the rest of the draft to shore up the secondary, wide receiver depth on the offensive line.
It puts you in a strong position to strengthen this team.
The Eagles, The Patriots believe it or not I think the Jets or Dolphins will try to make a move on him The Bucs and Jags surely will.
I think we have the best chance to land him if we are in the ballpark with our offer and If I was Belichick I just wouldn't call the man I would fly down and meet him he is our Willie Mac or elephant player we've been sorely lacking and our defense hasn't been the same since number 55 left.
So let's take a page out of Nintendo's book and count on Super Mario to lead the way!

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Difference is during the glory years we were able to draft a Richard Seymour who was a complete DE, one of the best in the league at his position. We had Ty Law who was an all around amazing CB and for years there were few guys if any I'd take over him. Being able to get those guys through the draft is like making a blockbuster FA acquisition without the big contract. Yes it's a team sport but if our defense is ever going to get back to where it was you need a few elites, Wilfork can't do it all himself.

Its probably not going to happen... but Mario Williams is a guy I'd absolutely break the bank for. Ever since letting Seymour go we haven't come close to replacing him. Given our low draft position year after year, chances are we won't land an impact like that through the draft.

 

[Ring 6]

Difference is during the glory years we were able to draft a Richard Seymour who was a complete DE, one of the best in the league at his position. We had Ty Law who was an all around amazing CB and for years there were few guys if any I'd take over him. Being able to get those guys through the draft is like making a blockbuster FA acquisition without the big contract. Yes it's a team sport but if our defense is ever going to get back to where it was you need a few elites, Wilfork can't do it all himself.

Its probably not going to happen... but Mario Williams is a guy I'd absolutely break the bank for. Ever since letting Seymour go we haven't come close to replacing him. Given our low draft position year after year, chances are we won't land an impact like that through the draft.

I understand the upside, but you must also consider the downside.

If we pay Mario Williams $15,000,000 a year for 6 years after he just missed most of the season after having surgery on a torn pect, what if he reinjures it. (Torn pects, biceps, etc do recurr in some cases) or his play declines after banking all that money, then we have a $15 million dollar mistake.

That is a very difficult mistake to overcome.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Good points.

The basic economics of a capped league say that you win when the play you get out of your players exceeds their cost.

...

Signing a 10 mill a year player can be worth it, but you are surely diminishing either a few starter spots or a ton of depth in the trade off, so you better be right. This is why good teams seem to have moat of the biggest paychecks on their roster be the guys they retained rather than brought in.

That's as concise and good a description of the economics of the NFL under the Cap as I have read anywhere.

Since all teams have (virtually) the same money to spend, successful teams are those that figure out how to get total value or "play" that is materially in excess of total cost on a consistent basis ("materially," "total," "excess" and "consistent" are all key).

Given the cap, it is irrational (and dangerous) consistently to pay what the market determines is top price for a FA, since the best you can hope for is that the value you get will equal the cost, which, even then, creates a deficit for which you have to make up somewhere else. In all likelihood, the value on the field will be worth less than the cost, so the problem is just compounded.

Success demands an intuitive or actual "formula," position by position, that looks two or three years ahead at all times.

Thanks.

 

[Ring 6]

If Mario Williams hits the free agency market with no price of a draft pick,
you absolutely have to consider backing the brink truck up for him.
Belichick has said before theres only so many men 6ft 6 with a wingspan and able to run like a gazelle well, not only does he have the built the, speed, but were not talking what if's were talking a sure thing.

He is coming off a season ending injury, and probably will be playing a role/scheme he has never played before if he comes here. Far from sure thing.

When you look at the players Belichick has spent big money on it's defense,
Roosevelt Colvin, Adalius Thomas, Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork, and he flirted with the idea of Peppers before Chicago opened the vault.

He spent on Brady, Moss, Mankins, Light, Dillon on the offensive side of the ball.
There is no real evidence he pursued Peppers, just speculation that has never been confirmed.

Now let's look at this from a business position, Able to play the 4-3 as well as the 3-4 incredibly athletic, has mentioned he wants to be on a winning team,
A sure thing, to trade up to get Coples it would take both our firsts and maybe more. I honestly believe if you spend big on defense it's the front 7 and he's shown that with the huge extension to Mayo.

From a business standpoint you would be signing a guy who has to be DPOY to be worth the money and cannot really possibly outplay the cost.

If you attain Mario you know have the rest of the draft to shore up the secondary, wide receiver depth on the offensive line.
It puts you in a strong position to strengthen this team.
The Eagles, The Patriots believe it or not I think the Jets or Dolphins will try to make a move on him The Bucs and Jags surely will.

A bidding war is a reason to stay away.

I think we have the best chance to land him if we are in the ballpark with our offer

Why do we have an edge?

and If I was Belichick I just wouldn't call the man I would fly down and meet him he is our Willie Mac or elephant player we've been sorely lacking and our defense hasn't been the same since number 55 left.

So let's take a page out of Nintendo's book and count on Super Mario to lead the way!

I don't mean this offensively at all, but this is the difference between you and BB. BB does not drool over players he has to have at any cost, and chase and beg them. He looks at every player available to get the best roster and views every single one as a competing decision. Its either $15 mill for Williams or $15 mill to use elsewhere, and get as much value. If he thinks the best value with the money Williams wants is Williams, then he will pursue him, if he thinks he can do more with the money on other players and across different positions and units, he will recognize that while it would be great to have Williams the cost (in terms of what your can't do by paying Williams is just too much.

Since most teams tend to think any one player is more valuable than the Patriots do in their team building, top to bottom quality approach, it often happens that all of the other groceries you can buy with that 15 mill add up to more value.

 

[Gronkandez]

Re: Mario Williams\Cliff Avril, etc

I think historically these guys get top dollar if they get an offer. I don't remember the last time a team surrendered a 1 for an RFA.

This is the first year of the 1st round tender. In the past the highest tender was a 1st+3rd rounder, followed by a 2nd round tender.

The only case I can remember was Curtis Martin, which is going back quite awhile. I know the Jets gave up a 1st, but I'm guessing they also gave up a 3rd? They gave him a contract with a poison pill but those aren't allowed anymore, however if someone offers Wallace big bonus in year one, as Shefter reported, the Steelers will have a very difficult time matching it.

 

[Christopher Patriot]

He is coming off a season ending injury, and probably will be playing a role/scheme he has never played before if he comes here. Far from sure thing.


He spent on Brady, Moss, Mankins, Light, Dillon on the offensive side of the ball.
There is no real evidence he pursued Peppers, just speculation that has never been confirmed.


From a business standpoint you would be signing a guy who has to be DPOY to be worth the money and cannot really possibly outplay the cost.





A bidding war is a reason to stay away.


Why do we have an edge


I don't mean this offensively at all, but this is the difference between you and BB. BB does not drool over players he has to have at any cost, and chase and beg them. He looks at every player available to get the best roster and views every single one as a competing decision. Its either $15 mill for Williams or $15 mill to use elsewhere, and get as much value. If he thinks the best value with the money Williams wants is Williams, then he will pursue him, if he thinks he can do more with the money on other players and across different positions and units, he will recognize that while it would be great to have Williams the cost (in terms of what your can't do by paying Williams is just too much.
Since most teams tend to think any one player is more valuable than the Patriots do in their team building, top to bottom quality approach, it often happens that all of the other groceries you can buy with that 15 mill add up to more value.

I'm asking this as a serious question cause I want to get the boards opinion,
how many upgades could this team use?
My position is we have a very good young team bringing in a difference maker or Williams ability, could be one of the last steps this team needs to be a top 10 defense, now upgrading the depth in the secondary but we don't know what we have in RAS I yet, he could be a stud or a dud so the jury is out.
So that being said at this time I think were looking quality over quanity,
Especially if Brady has 3 more elite years and then the down spiral could begin.

 

[PatriotDynasty_12]

How much would you spend on Williams? I'd go as high as 5 years 55 million.

 

[Off The Grid]

I don't remember the last time a team surrendered a 1 for an RFA.

This is the first year of the 1st round tender.

In the past the highest tender was a 1st+3rd rounder, followed by a 2nd round tender.

The only case I can remember was Curtis Martin, which is going back quite awhile. I know the Jets gave up a 1st, but I'm guessing they also gave up a 3rd? They gave him a contract with a poison pill but those aren't allowed anymore, however if someone offers Wallace big bonus in year one, as Shefter reported, the Steelers will have a very difficult time matching it.

The most recently that I remember was Peerless Price.

Beefalo tagged him ~ the "official" price was a 1st and 1st!! ~ and let the Market determine his Trade Value: They let him and his Agent work it out.

The Falconians broke off a 1st Rounder for'm, and all parties were happy.

***

This is what I was suggesting we do with Moss, after his record breaking season.

We would've certainly gotten Washington's 1st Rounder ~ or someone else's.

...And probably CONSECUTIVE 1st Rounders!!

Brian Orakpo, baby!! :rocker:

 

[Ring 6]

I'm asking this as a serious question cause I want to get the boards opinion, how many upgades could this team use?

My position is we have a very good young team bringing in a difference maker or Williams ability, could be one of the last steps this team needs to be a top 10 defense, now upgrading the depth in the secondary but we don't know what we have in RAS I yet, he could be a stud or a dud so the jury is out.

So that being said at this time I think we're looking quality over quanity, especially if Brady has 3 more elite years and then the down spiral could begin.

Defensive players we have right now who would in a perfect world, make the team and their role:

STARTERS
DL Wilfork
LB Mayo, Spikes (Ninko--could get away with but would be better as a part time player)
CB McCourty (Dowling TBD)
S Chung

SUBPACKAGE PASS RUSHERS
None

RESERVES
DL Deaderick, Love
LB Fletcher
CB Arrington

That means in a perfect world we need to upgrade 6 starters, some of which may cover the 4 sub pacckage rushers we need, and we have about 8 reserves positions that could be upgraded, so yes, we could find a ton of players who are not yet on our roster who would upgrade the defense.

(Apologies if I left someone out)

 

[everlong]

Re: Mario Williams\Cliff Avril, etc

I think historically these guys get top dollar if they get an offer. I don't remember the last time a team surrendered a 1 for an RFA

The basic economics of a capped league say that you win when the play you get out of your players exceeds their cost.

The Vikings gave up a first and third for Jarad Allen who was franchised so not an RFA but the last one I can remember.

That's the reason there's not going to pay Williams. You pay him 15M and you pretty much need him to meet expectations each and every year of that contract.