Don Banks SI Power Rankings (Playoff Edition)

[BHSL2]

Greetings,
I think people thinking this team will disappoint soley because of this defense has gotten really old. I understand that this is not a championship like defense that has a lot of issues, but Green Bay is not much better if your going to go there. Now, if people bring up they will disappoint because they (A). Have laid two goose eggs at home in the playoffs back to back and (B). Have not won a playoff game in four years and (C) The offense for years has gone Jeckyl\Hyde from regular season to playoffs, then they are correct for their reasons of doubt.
Celticboy04

First of all, this defense is anything but "old"

Second of all, this decade will redefine what it means to play "championship defense"

Edit: Wait, I think I misunderstood your first point. My bad.

 

[deroc5050]

I think by all accounts we all should agree that the Pats really are #3 on the 'eyeball' test.

Green Bay and New Orleans are worthy of their higher ranking at this point.

if they were all playing indoors I agree with you.. I just think if NO has to go to GB they have virtually no shot of winning. I would like to see how bree's plays when outside in freezing weather.

 

[MSU]

You can rationalize it all you want, but it was a dumb argument to begin with and this "rebuttal" only reinforces it as such.

JackBauer is what we call extremely delusional. I respect that though little buddy, keep doing your thing.

 

[The Brandon Five]

First of all, this defense is anything but "old"

Second of all, this decade will redefine what it means to play "championship defense"

Edit: Wait, I think I misunderstood your first point. My bad.

Here's a championship defense from a few years ago:

Allowed 360 points (22.5/g), 23rd.
Takeaway/Giveaway Differential +7 (0.4/g), 6th.
Simple Rating System: Defense: -1.1






That's the 2006 Colts for those keeping score at home.

 

[The Brandon Five]

Deus, I agree that Green Bay has earned the right *as a team* to be given a little slack. They have some cache for the reasons you mentioned. But my original post goes after a very specific issue. People are saying New England is almost certainly going to fall short because they have a terrible defense (ranked 31st in yards allowed). Never mind the fact that they have the 15th ranked defense by points allowed...which is better than many of the teams in the playoffs. But forget that for a minute. My beef is that NOBODY dismisses Green Bay - nobody - even though, statistically, their defense is *WORSE* than New England's - both in yards allowed and points allowed. By either measure, New England had the better defense this year.

On "No Huddle" this week, Willie picked NE and NO, Rose and Dukes picked NE and GB to go to the SB. Warren responded to Dukes and Rose by saying that he couldn't pick the "worst defense in the league". The others tried to help him by saying "you mean the two worst defenses in the league"? He shook his head and said he was picking Baltimore and GB. He was apparently clueless that GB actually ended the season ranked last.

 

[ivanvamp]

On "No Huddle" this week, Willie picked NE and NO, Rose and Dukes picked NE and GB to go to the SB. Warren responded to Dukes and Rose by saying that he couldn't pick the "worst defense in the league". The others tried to help him by saying "you mean the two worst defenses in the league"? He shook his head and said he was picking Baltimore and GB. He was apparently clueless that GB actually ended the season ranked last.

Thank you...this is exactly the kind of thing I'm talking about.

 

[BritPat]

Two words: Charles Woodson

He's played more like Charles Manson this year. The only plays he's made are bad ones.

That Packers defense sucks the big fat one. They do come up with turnovers though, more so than we do.

No-one is beating them at Lambeau either way.

 

[BHSL2]

Here's a championship defense from a few years ago:

Allowed 360 points (22.5/g), 23rd.
Takeaway/Giveaway Differential +7 (0.4/g), 6th.
Simple Rating System: Defense: -1.1






That's the 2006 Colts for those keeping score at home.

Exactly,

The sophistication of the game at the college and professional levels has brought passing to the forefront.

You can expect more cumulative yards and points. It's harder to stop the pass on most accounts.

However, the more non elite QBs and personnel you have airing it out, the more turnovers you as a defense you will be likely to generate. Good defenses now are getting the turnovers.

Of course, teams like SF, BAL, and PIT are good defensively because of the front 7, dominating most opponents in that aspect.

But look at their secondaries...

 

[JackBauer]

JackBauer is what we call extremely delusional. I respect that though little buddy, keep doing your thing.

Okay, I'll play along oh-ye-of-18-posts.

NE had two pass rushers reach double digit sacks this year. How many rushers does GB have for whom you could say the same?

 

[BritPat]

But look at their secondaries...

You do know that the Steelers and the Ravens both rank in the top 5 defenses against the pass this year don't you? The Steelers rank #1. And the 49ers secondary has been excellent, Carlos Rogers has been virtually shutdown this year.

 

[JackBauer]

You do know that the Steelers and the Ravens both rank in the top 5 defenses against the pass this year don't you? The Steelers rank #1. And the 49ers secondary has been excellent, Carlos Rogers has been virtually shutdown this year.

The 49ers pass defense has been good, but not great.

 

[BHSL2]

You do know that the Steelers and the Ravens both rank in the top 5 defenses against the pass this year don't you? The Steelers rank #1. And the 49ers secondary has been excellent, Carlos Rogers has been virtually shutdown this year.

The way to beat these teams is to spread them out and exploit mismatches. Their defensive weaknesses are their back 7. And stats are one thing, game tape shows plenty of susceptibilities. Also look at the opposing Qbs these teams faced.

 

[Uncle Rico]

You do know that the Steelers and the Ravens both rank in the top 5 defenses against the pass this year don't you? The Steelers rank #1. And the 49ers secondary has been excellent, Carlos Rogers has been virtually shutdown this year.

There's been a lot of talk here about the Pats' and Packers' and Saint's numbers on pass D being inflated because of the types of games they play. Can't the same be said about the Steelers and Ravens? They play two games each against Cinci (20th rank passing yards) and Cleveland (24th). Then Pitt (10th, not bad) and Baltimore (19th) play each other twice. They're good defenses no doubt; but beatable.

 

[AzPatsFan]

LB #1: 50 tackles, 6 sacks, 3 INTs, 3 FF, 0 FRec, 1 TD
LB #2: 74 tackels, 6.5 Sacks, 2 INTs, 1 FF, 3 FRec, 1 TD



































LB#1 = Clay Matthews
LB#2 = Rob Ninkovich

The Packers have guys who have REPUTATIONS of being playmakers. They haven't been great playmakers this year.

But you forget the other DE/OLB position. It was a platoon with Carter/Anderson.

LB #3: 97 tackles; 20 sacks!, 0 INTs, 4 FF; and 2 FR.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Exactly,

The sophistication of the game at the college and professional levels has brought passing to the forefront.

You can expect more cumulative yards and points. It's harder to stop the pass on most accounts.

However, the more non elite QBs and personnel you have airing it out, the more turnovers you as a defense you will be likely to generate. Good defenses now are getting the turnovers.

Of course, teams like SF, BAL, and PIT are good defensively because of the front 7, dominating most opponents in that aspect.

But look at their secondaries...

No I think you are misinterpreting the data. Turnovers result from speed. Speed Kills. Their Defenses are statistically good, mostly because they are all running teams. Their Offenses, while running the ball, chew up clock and reduce the number of opportunities for the other team to score.

Or had you never considered that?

You should note that despite the prodigious Offensive production, the Pats DO NOT own the time of possession margin. They allow the Opposition offense about 32.5 minutes of on field time/game. Certainly that gives the other guys more time to produce yardage stats, if not score.

OTOH, the running teams give the opposition 27 or 28 minutes of on field time. So their opponents do not have as much time to compile yardage and scores. That is a substantial percentage of on field time, for the average Offense and allows them to accumulate more yards, if not necessarily more scores.

Simple, isn't it?

 

[BHSL2]

Yes, I had considered the differences between running and passing tems. It's simple, fewer possessions for offenses means fewer statististics. I have used that angle sometimes to support the pats defense outside of this board.

However I stand by my point that increased passing league-wide contributes to favorable takeaway numbers for defenses. And I still believe the strength of pit, bal and sfs defenses is their front seven. And I still believe most of the opponenets on their schedules were too inept as a team to take advantage of their defensive weaknesses.

No I think you are misinterpreting the data. Turnovers result from speed. Speed Kills. Their Defenses are statistically good, mostly because they are all running teams. Their Offenses, while running the ball, chew up clock and reduce the number of opportunities for the other team to score.

Or had you never considered that?

You should note that despite the prodigious Offensive production, the Pats DO NOT own the time of possession margin. They allow the Opposition offense about 32.5 minutes of on field time/game. Certainly that gives the other guys more time to produce yardage stats, if not score.

OTOH, the running teams give the opposition 27 or 28 minutes of on field time. So their opponents do not have as much time to compile yardage and scores. That is a substantial percentage of on field time, for the average Offense and allows them to accumulate more yards, if not necessarily more scores.

Simple, isn't it?

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Yes, I had considered the differences between running and passing tems. It's simple, fewer possessions for offenses means fewer statististics. I have used that angle sometimes to support the pats defense outside of this board.

However I stand by my point that increased passing league-wide contributes to favorable takeaway numbers for defenses. And I still believe the strength of pit, bal and sfs defenses is their front seven. And I still believe most of the opponenets on their schedules were too inept as a team to take advantage of their defensive weaknesses.

Baltimore still has a guy named Ed Reed in the secondary...that makes up for a lot of the mediocrity behind him.

I still fear throwing in Reed's vicinity in a playoff game.

 

[AzPatsFan]

"No, it's not. This team is worse than last season, on both sides of the ball. That doesn't mean it can't win, but let's stop blowing smoke here."

DI,

I thoroughly disagree with your position. The 2011 edition is much better than the 2010 edition. Here is why:

1) The 2010 team couldn't rush the passer. 31 sacks/year is not an acceptable number. The 2011 edition is right on target for the number of sacks/season based on Belichick's SB Defense, and not some blitz happy coach's defense, that can roll up 50. And give up 10 or 20 long TDs when the blitz fails.

2) The depth at all positions is pretty good, save for the glaring problem at Safety, that the Pats played with all season. Of significance, the injured, except for Ras-I have all come back for the play offs.

3) The Offensive line where all offense begins is now composed of Light, Mankins, Connelly, Waters, and Vollmer/Solder/Cannon, with Koppens on IR. To me that is 8 starter or better quality, and there is more besides.

4) Brady is Brady and is having a fine year. Hoyer is more experienced if needed. the Offense is outscoring what the Defense yeilds by 11 points/game. This is an enormous gap.

5) The RBBC group is much healthier and better. Oft-injured Taylor and Morris are gone while Riddley, Vareen, BJGE, Woodhead and even Faulk are back. Don't discount having a genuine FB in Polite too. That is a new short yardage weapon.

6) Despite our concerns for the #3/4 WR, the first couple Welker and Branch are now proven and healthy, where as they were not last season. The TEs are simply the best in the league and healthy. Even Ocho is not a disaster as the #5/6 receiver with Edelman.

7) The LBs both inside and outside, are deeper and better than in half a decade. Fletcher and Spinks with Mayo and Ninko is a respectable and even potentially dangerous front. Don't forget to add Anderson and Guyton, who are healthy; and Carter/Cunningham who are not.

8) At CB the play is better and more experienced than last season. Arrington has developed, and has found the INT ability. McCorty has been betrayed by S play; never being there while the Pats had no valid Safeties. Now they have at least one and it shows. Edelman has found a position where his quickness, witness his PR capacity and Welker-light quickness as a WR, and ex QB knowledge is helpful in slot CB.

9) The Defensive line weakened recently against the run. But I suspect they often invited the run to help the pass defense. In any case, Pryor, Wright and Carter are on IR, but all the other walking wounded are now healthy. The return of the ILBs will help too.

10) Finally we come to Safety. I admit that this 2011 edition is and was much worse than last 2010 season. Sometimes playing games with out a single legitimate DB at either Safety position. But now Chung has returned. Through out the injury disaster, the team gave up yards and longer completions especially into the so-called 2-gap sideline hole. But in spite of that they gave up few Long TDs,as the receiver was usually tackled late, and did not get a clean breakaway. In spite of that, the Pats injury filled secondary, yielded only 21.5 ppg.

In summary, this 2011 edition is getting healthy as it goes into the Tournament. The past two incomplete editions were a lot shallower, and went in as walking wounded. That is a BIG DIFFERENCE.

 

[JJDChE]

Deus, I agree that Green Bay has earned the right *as a team* to be given a little slack...My beef is that NOBODY dismisses Green Bay - nobody - even though, statistically, their defense is *WORSE* than New England's.

That was the point I was going to make. Green Bay deserves to be the favorite for the way they've played as a team this year and at the end of last year. That doesn't mean they shouldn't get crap for their terrible defense. It would be a non-issue if there weren't so many people going nuts over the Pats defense, then completely dismissing the fact that the Packers D has been just as bad.

Last 8 games:

8-0, 36.4 PPG, 19.8 PAPG, 419 YPG, 406 YAPG, 3 OTO, 20 DTO, +17
7-1, 35.6 PPG, 22.5 PAPG, 394 YPG, 424 YAPG, 6 OTO, 19 DTO, +13

One is us, one is the Packers. The Packers had almost identical stats in the first 8 games, whereas we really struggled. We also had an easier schedule in the second half.

Regardless, these two teams aren't all that different (throw New Orleans in the mix as well).

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Yeah, I don't get it that the Packers get a free pass for their defense, but the Pats constantly get slammed for it when the Packers have given up more yards. In fact, the Pats are 15th and the Packers are 19th in points allowed.

I personally don't care overall. What analysts think have no bearing on the game. I would rather have them all trash the Patriots based on perceptions and look foolish if the Pats go to or even win the Super Bowl.

First of all, I agree 100% with your second paragraph. I'm always happy when the Pats are under the radar screen or underestimated. I have them in the SB as long as they don't have to beat the Steelers and Ravens on successive weekends.

As for your first point, I do "get it" that the Packers don't get slammed. They won the whole darn shootin' match last year from a Wild Card slot and the Pats threw up against the Jests from the Top Seed. The Pack also had won 19 in a row (threatening the Pats 21 game record) before their one loss. Green Bay ended up 15--1 vs. a Pats 13--3 that included a couple of "come from behind" efforts in the last two weeks against inferior teams, with the Pack beating five playoff teams while the Pats were 1--2 against 2011/12 post-season teams. Brady looked vulnerable until the second half of the season and Rodgers was on cruise control most of the year.