Is the assertion that Belichick's drafts have been poor accurate?

[Shockt327]

well, I was right, anyway....... both in term of his ability and his need for him

back to the original point.....BB has SUCKED at drafting defense.

Oh, you were right?

One time.

One time.

Now do it 10 years in a row. Evaluate every player.

Guess what? Your "one time" becomes nothing more than a petty coin flip. You cannot deny this. It is true for the professionals too. They all have their "binkies." Half are flat out busts.

 

[Ivan]

...just look at all the high-mid round draft picks that have been cut over the past 5 years. Whoever says Belichick's drafts haven't been poor is on the wrong side of a debate.

More stellar analysis from people who can't make an argument but insist they are right, let us know when you can rebut the CHFF analysis of the entire league over 10 years that had Belichik at the head of the class. no-one has been able to so far and I doubt anyone can period, especially when they don't bring anything to the table at all.

 

[SyN65]

IntenseCoronary says Pats lose like Indy this season if Brady goes down...I counter with, "that has happened and the Pats went 11-5" by posting "oh....wait".....Intensive Care comes back with "you're delusional!!!!"....I need someone to explain WHY I'm delusional...did the Patriots NOT post an 11-5 record when Brady went down in the first game of the 2008 season?

Sure they did, but that was a completely different team with completely different players playing a completely different schedule.

IF Brady went down THIS season with THIS team, I can't see the Patriots winning more than 4 or 5 games.

 

[DarrylS]

All this banter is interesting, but someone needs to look at the draft history of the AFC in total, to see if this is a phenomenon unique to the Patriots or something that happens league wide.

Have always contended that the draft is a crap shoot... people look to the Steelers as some hallmark we should emulate.. here is their draft history in the second round for the past 6 years..

2011.. Marcus Gilbert..OT currently starts for the Steelers
2010.. Jason Worilds.. playing ok, but seems to be a work in progress
2009.. no second round pick
2008.. Limus Sweed... has been waived
2007.. Lamar Woodley.. great pick
2006.. no second round pick

Miami's vaunted 2nd round picks..

2011...Daniel Thomas RB.. looks like a good pick
2010..Koa Missa. LB.. work in progress
2009..Pat White. QB... not in the game
2008..Phillip Merling.. not in the game
Chad Henne..
2007.. John Beck. QB...traded to the Redskins
Samson Satele.. C.. good pick
2006..no pick

The Jets absolutely wonderful 2nd round picks..

2011... no second round pick
2010.. Vladimir DuCasse
2009.. Shonn Greene
2008 .. no second round pick
2007.. David Harris
2006.. Kellen Clemens
2005... Mike Nugent
Justin Miller..


The Green Bay Packers recent 2ndround picks..

2011.. Randall Cobb
2010.. Mike Neal.. oft injuried
2009.. no second round pick
2008..Brian Brohm.. no longer in the NFL
Patrick lee.. marginal player
2007..Brandon Jackson.. marginal player now with the Browns.
2006...Darren Colledge..starting O lineman now with the Cardinals
Greg Jennings
2005..Nick Collins.. a pro bowler on IR
Terrence Murphy retired from the NFL..

You can do this will all of the teams in the AFC and results may be comparable. People need to view this longitudinally.. there are as many hits in the draft as misses.

 

[IllegalContact]

2011 - dowling, vereen...basically 2 DNP's
2010 - gronk, spikes, Cunningham.....one great, one avg,one dead
2009 - Chung,butler,brace,vollmer....2 avg, 2 dead
2008 - Wheatley
2006 - Jackson

Basically the pats achieve what the other teams do.......it just takes the double the picks to do it?......trading down has not been good value

 

[Gainzo]

Have always contended that the draft is a crap shoot.

As have I and most rational people. The draft junkies seem to think that the draft is the only way to build a team. Trades (usually involving draft picks), signing FA's, and UDFA's , don't count with these clowns.

Not to mention that every team has a different philosophy when it comes to the draft.

The Jets hit some homeruns with Dewayne Robertson (4th overall) and Vernon Gholston (6th overall).

In those drafts the Pats selected Ty Warren (13th overall) and Jerod Mayo* (10th overall)

*Pats traded out of the 7th spot and got a Pro Bowl player.

 

[SteveKiner]

Lots of words with nothing said.....barwin was my binky that year.........really the only guy I wanted the pats to draft......bottom line

Enough of your nonsense

Can you cite any posts you made pre-draft that expresses your feeling regarding Barwin?

Better yet, since you are very good at this, can you list one player available in the upcoming draft who you will call your "binky" this year. Please do this before the draft guides come out and McShay/Kiper etc tell you who to like. Please try to be reasonable(i.e. don't say you will take Andrew Luck if he is there in the 3rd). Try something like "I think D'ontari Poe looks good if he is there late in the 2nd" Let's see how you do.

 

[Ivan]

Sure they did, but that was a completely different team with completely different players playing a completely different schedule.

IF Brady went down THIS season with THIS team, I can't see the Patriots winning more than 4 or 5 games.

I.E....reality doesn't matter only what the critics want to believe

 

[Real World]

yeah!@!! remember 2008???

oh........wait.......

If you're saying was he not on the team at all, then obviously the strategy for acquiring talent would differ significantly.


If you're saying what would happen with an unexpected injury, then I'd like to call your attention to 2008. Now I'm not suggesting they would win 11 games - but let me ask you this: if you removed the most important player from any of the 30 other teams, would you not expect their number of wins to significantly decrease also?

I've had this very discussion with people, and they always point to 2008. First and foremost, that was 4 seasons ago. Second, that team was coming off a 16-0 regular season, and a last minute loss in the SB. Roster for roster, the 2008 team > 2011 team. That defense was top 10 in both points and yards. This defense is middle of the pack in points, and dead last in yards. This team can't survive without Brady. The 2008 team could. That's cuz the 2008 team, outside of Brady, was better than this team is today. IMO anyway. Plus, I don't think that 2008 team beat anyone with a winning record, or maybe any of the playoff teams they played that year.

It would depend on the player lost, the team, and their style of play. I look at Houston for example, and while they've lost some key players to injury, they continue to win. Pitt won when Roth was suspended too. That being said, generally speaking the answer is yes. When a team loses a key player, the expected result would be more losses.

As for the thread topic, the Patriots drafts have been disappointing imo. While they've hit on players like Gronk and Hernandez, they've missed a ton on high picks. So much so, that they've used "first day" picks on the same positions for years now. Not only that, but the replacement picks have sucked too. Look at the misses:

1st thru 3rd rounder misses 2006-2011:

Cunningham, Price, Brace, Butler, Tate, McKenzie, Wheatley, Crable, O'Connell, Meriweather, Maroney, Jackson, Thomas etc.

These guys are busts in my opinion. That's 13 high picks in 6 years. Ouch. Then there's a number of other players (Spikes, Dowling, Chung for example) who are contributors to some degree, or show promise, but either can't stay on the field if they're decent, or aren't anything special if they can.

Then there's philosophy. You'd think that instead of drafting DB's year after year in the first and second round, they'd instead consider drafting a pass rusher of some kind, that might help make the cover guys they've drafted, better by default. :confused2: I'm not trying to be overly negative. I'm just trying to be honest about what I see.

 

[Ivan]

It is really comical that the critics always have to cherrypick their arguments to make them. The Patriots drafted better than any team in football the last 10 years and that's the way it is.

 

[IllegalContact]

Can you cite any posts you made pre-draft that expresses your feeling regarding Barwin?

Better yet, since you are very good at this, can you list one player available in the upcoming draft who you will call your "binky" this year. Please do this before the draft guides come out and McShay/Kiper etc tell you who to like. Please try to be reasonable(i.e. don't say you will take Andrew Luck if he is there in the 3rd). Try something like "I think D'ontari Poe looks good if he is there late in the 2nd" Let's see how you do.

LOL.......given I have only been here since 2010, that's not possible......

Barwin was the most popular pre draft choice for the pats for most people. even many of the website mocks had barwin going to the pats....it made a ton of sense at the time and did not require any imagination.

this year? I like Jake Bequette, Marvin McNutt, Billy Winn......but its early, and I haven't really started to look.

 

[Ron Sellers]

I've had this very discussion with people, and they always point to 2008. First and foremost, that was 4 seasons ago. Second, that team was coming off a 16-0 regular season, and a last minute loss in the SB. Roster for roster, the 2008 team > 2011 team. That defense was top 10 in both points and yards. This defense is middle of the pack in points, and dead last in yards. This team can't survive without Brady. The 2008 team could. That's cuz the 2008 team, outside of Brady, was better than this team is today. IMO anyway. Plus, I don't think that 2008 team beat anyone with a winning record, or maybe any of the playoff teams they played that year.

It would depend on the player lost, the team, and their style of play. I look at Houston for example, and while they've lost some key players to injury, they continue to win. Pitt won when Roth was suspended too. That being said, generally speaking the answer is yes. When a team loses a key player, the expected result would be more losses.

As for the thread topic, the Patriots drafts have been disappointing imo. While they've hit on players like Gronk and Hernandez, they've missed a ton on high picks. So much so, that they've used "first day" picks on the same positions for years now. Not only that, but the replacement picks have sucked too. Look at the misses:

1st thru 3rd rounder misses 2006-2011:

Cunningham, Price, Brace, Butler, Tate, McKenzie, Wheatley, Crable, O'Connell, Meriweather, Maroney, Jackson, Thomas etc.

These guys are busts in my opinion. That's 13 high picks in 6 years. Ouch. Then there's a number of other players (Spikes, Dowling, Chung for example) who are contributors to some degree, or show promise, but either can't stay on the field if they're decent, or aren't anything special if they can.

Then there's philosophy. You'd think that instead of drafting DB's year after year in the first and second round, they'd instead consider drafting a pass rusher of some kind, that might help make the cover guys they've drafted, better by default. :confused2: I'm not trying to be overly negative. I'm just trying to be honest about what I see.

That's a valid point. I think what happens is that we tend to focus on the misses and ignore the fact that everybody starts out with an identical toolbox: seven picks per year. One strategy would be to stand pat with those picks; another would be to trade up, placing more value on quality (earlier picks) over quantity; a third strategy would be to do the opposite and acquire additional picks while sacrificing quality (those earlier picks.)

What if three teams utilize each of those three unique draft strategies, and each ends up with the same thing: one elite player, one solid starter, and one dependable situational player/special teams player; they should then be considered to have done equally as well in the draft, right? You would think so, but that's not at all how people react.

• Team # 1 who did not trade would be viewed as being in the middle:three out of seven with four busts; just under 50% success rate.
  
  
• Team #2 who traded up would be viewed as being draft geniuses: three out of four for a 75% success rate, with just one bust.
  
  
• Team #3 who traded down would be viewed as horrible at drafting and evaluating players with only a 30% success rate, and 7 out of 10 players declared to be busts.

And yet despite those three widely different opinions on how well those teams drafted, they would have all ended up with exactly the same thing!


The Patriots certainly do have plenty of room for improvement in regards to the draft; I am not saying that they do not. I'm just not convinced that theirs is either a bad strategy, or that it has been quite as bad as many make it out to be. If your strategy is to trade down and spread the bust risk factor over additional players, then the expected result will be more busts - but that number doesn't really matter, does it? The important number is how many picks you end up with that do work out, not how many that don't.

 

[Real World]

That's a valid point. I think what happens is that we tend to focus on the misses and ignore the fact that everybody starts out with an identical toolbox: seven picks per year. One strategy would be to stand pat with those picks; another would be to trade up, placing more value on quality (earlier picks) over quantity; a third strategy would be to do the opposite and acquire additional picks while sacrificing quality (those earlier picks.)

What if three teams utilize each of those three unique draft strategies, and each ends up with the same thing: one elite player, one solid starter, and one dependable situational player/special teams player; they should then be considered to have done equally as well in the draft, right? You would think so, but that's not at all how people react.

• Team # 1 who did not trade would be viewed as being in the middle:three out of seven with four busts; just under 50% success rate.
  
  
• Team #2 who traded up would be viewed as being draft geniuses: three out of four for a 75% success rate, with just one bust.
  
  
• Team #3 who traded down would be viewed as horrible at drafting and evaluating players with only a 30% success rate, and 7 out of 10 players declared to be busts.

And yet despite those three widely different opinions on how well those teams drafted, they would have all ended up with exactly the same thing!


The Patriots certainly do have plenty of room for improvement in regards to the draft; I am not saying that they do not. I'm just not convinced that theirs is either a bad strategy, or that it has been quite as bad as many make it out to be. If your strategy is to trade down and spread the bust risk factor over additional players, then the expected result will be more busts - but that number doesn't really matter, does it? The important number is how many picks you end up with that do work out, not how many that don't.

Personally, the trade up, trade down, or stand pat ideology/angle matters little to me. Really what determines either philosophy's merrit, is the results. If you trade up and miss, or trade down and miss, the net result is a miss all the same. The same goes for hitting on a player. I truly don't care about the method used, as much as I do about who's drafted.

My criticism comes with the results more than the process. All things being equal, I tend to like the idea of adding extra picks in the higher rounds at the cost of moving down a round. If you're not crazy about what's on the board, then moving down makes sense in most cases. The Patriots problem is that they've drafted a lot of losers with their high picks, and have drafted so poorly, that they've had to repeatedly waste high picks on positions they've drafted previously, while ignoring other positions where they're extremely low on talent. I think that's fairly hard to disupute. Draft Wheately, bust, draft Butler, bust, draft McCourty who's struggled, draft Dowling who's on IR, etc. I don't think they're terrible drafters. I just think they're desevered of some criticism over the years.

 

[buile]

This thread has so much potential for analysis! Unfortunately, not much apples-to-apples, nor enough objectivity for me to make an informed decision. Thanks to the posters trying to bridge the gap by showing other teams picks; unfortunately, I think we'd need to see even more rounds!

Also unfortunately, other posters cloud the picture by making value judgements against the NE players, meaning: when one team's pick becomes a starter, it sounds like a hit. When a NE pick starts, the hit is downplayed by saying the player is only average. Is that considered a miss? I'm just saying: if the player is a starter, then the player is a starter. Value judgements should prolly come ~after~ a better numbers baseline has been established, and we can see if value judgements will add clarity. Quoting names of unsatisfactory results does not establish any baseline; it only leaves me wondering: I bet fans of every team can quote equally long lists of draft failures. Where's the truth?

I only understand ~some~ of NE's strategy at a high-level: maximize number of picks in the good value rounds. Don't put all your eggs in one basket because if the pick doesn't work out, cutting the ties is more costly, and perhaps you're less willing to make the cut because of the perceived cost.

 

[SteveKiner]

LOL.......given I have only been here since 2010, that's not possible......

Barwin was the most popular pre draft choice for the pats for most people. even many of the website mocks had barwin going to the pats....it made a ton of sense at the time and did not require any imagination.

this year? I like Jake Bequette, Marvin McNutt, Billy Winn......but its early, and I haven't really started to look.

LOL.......given I have only been here since 2010, that's not possible......

Can't argue with that. How about last year. Any "binky you want to share with us? Where you can show your pre draft acumen?

Barwin was the most popular pre draft choice for the pats for most people. even many of the website mocks had Barwin going to the pats....it made a ton of sense at the time and did not require any imagination.

Sergio Kindle and Jerry Hughes were very popular pre draft choices for the pats for most people. even many of the website mocks had Kindle/Hughes going to the pats....it made a ton of sense at the time and did not require any imagination. How did they work out?

this year? I like Jake Bequette, Marvin McNutt, Billy Winn......but its early, and I haven't really started to look
You like Bequette in what round? Obviously you saw him against SC. Any concern about his injuries? You are not really looking at him early are you? Maybe 3rd? Where do you see McNutt going? 2nd? Has size, does he have the speed? Winn? Again what round? I assume you expect a return to the 3-4 since that is where he projects. Do you think the Pats use an early pick on a 3-4 run stopping DE?

I realize it's early and you haven't started to look. Kiper's guide isn't out yet. That's the difference between guys like you and real scouts/Personnel men. You sit back and critique them and say "I would have taken Connor Barwin, everyone knew he was great". When all you can really do is regurgitate something you read in a draft guide. The guys you are bashing could give you reams of info today on your "binkies". And they still only get 1/2 right (when they are lucky) You regurgitate someone else work and the person you get your info from isn't good enough to work an NFL team. If they were good at evaluating players, they would be doing that for pay. Not selling draft guides to boobs like you. So you can act like you know something about NFL football talent evaluation.

Let's write you down for Winn in the 1st. McNutt in the 2nd and Bequette in the 3rd and see how you do.

 

[Armchair Quarterback]

The problem I have with their drafting is with the defense, They've spent 4 2nds and 2 1sts in the secondary since 07, 2 are on the roster, 1 is on IR, 3 have been released, Meriweather, Butler and Wheatley.

5 high picks at LB since 07, Mayo in the 1st, Cunningham and Spikes in the 2nd, Crable and McKenzie in the third.

Brace is the only pick in the top 3 rounds since Wilfork. Some serviceable late rounders and two pretty good UDFAs in Kyle Love and Mike Wright since 04.

12 high picks since 06 on defense, only Mayo could be considered an impact player.

Meriweather, Butler, Wheatley, Crable and McKenzie all released.

6 drafts 1 above average starter, mixed bag on McCourty, Spikes and Chung. Cunningham got very little playing time year two and Brace hasn't done much.

They've never sufficiently replaced defensive players from the championship years, not even close.

 

[goheels22002]

2011 - dowling, vereen...basically 2 DNP's
2010 - gronk, spikes, Cunningham.....one great, one avg,one dead
2009 - Chung,butler,brace,vollmer....2 avg, 2 dead
2008 - Wheatley
2006 - Jackson

Basically the pats achieve what the other teams do.......it just takes the double the picks to do it?......trading down has not been good value

Unpredictable injuries suffered after the draft do not make bad selections.

By your logic, Robert Edwards was a bad pick in 1998. He's the stud RB who blew out his knee and femoral artery playing beach football at pro-bowl. He was magnificent.

The guy on your list that seemed like a poor selection at #2 was Dowling given his college injury history. Otherwise, injuries in the NFL do not negate a good selection

There are some terrific players here, particularly Gronkowski, Vollmer, Spikes, Cunningham, Chung and Brace. If Vollmer, Chung and Spikes are 100% by January 15, the Pats are going to be really tough on both sides of the ball, particularly if Vincent Fuller works out.

A defensive backfield of McCourty, Arrington, Chung and Fuller looks pretty good to me.

 

[Armchair Quarterback]

Unpredictable injuries suffered after the draft do not make bad selections.

By your logic, Robert Edwards was a bad pick in 1998. He's the stud RB who blew out his knee and femoral artery playing beach football at pro-bowl. He was magnificent.

The guy on your list that seemed like a poor selection at #2 was Dowling given his college injury history. Otherwise, injuries in the NFL do not negate a good selection

There are some terrific players here, particularly Gronkowski, Vollmer, Spikes, Cunningham, Chung and Brace. If Vollmer, Chung and Spikes are 100% by January 15, the Pats are going to be really tough on both sides of the ball, particularly if Vincent Fuller works out.


A defensive backfield of McCourty, Arrington, Chung and Fuller looks pretty good to me.

Cunningham and Brace, terrific players?

I don't know what everyone sees out of Chung to make them think he's so good. He's not a difference maker.

Vollmer had known back issues in college and has back issues now. Very good when healthy, not very good this year. Spikes has shown potential but misses an awful lot of time.

Gronk was a home run.

 

[strongside]

(7) solid starters, above average at their position: Jerod Mayo, Devin McCourty, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Sebastian Vollmer, Patrick Chung, Stephan Gostkowski, Zoltan Mesko
(4) other starters, role players and backups still on team: Ron Brace, Jermaine Cunningham, Brandon Spikes, Taylor Price
(4) players who contributed while here but are no longer on team: Brandon Meriweather, Laurence Maroney, Jake Ingram, Jonathan Wilhite
(11) 1st to 4th round busts: never made as much impact with team as was expected or hoped for: Darius Butler, Brandon Tate, Tyrone McKenzie, Rich Ohrnberger, Terrance Wheatley, Shawn Crable, Kevin O’Connell, Kareem Bown, Chad Jackson, David Thomas, Garrett Mills
(4) good late round values: Matthew Slater, Julian Edelman, Brandon Deaderick, Myron Pryor

 

[Coach42]

Really isn't the only relevant point that every important player on this team that has contributed to a 25-6 record over the last two seasons has been drafted by BB? Could he have done better? Sure, but I'm not sure what pointing out that BB isn't the best draft man in the NFL proves. Really, who gives a sh*t if he wins with it? I'll take the Coach/GM leadership of BB over any other combo in the league.