August 25th Roster Musings

[Ring 6]

Well that just gives me a warm and fuzzy!

Seriously though, the #5 CB probably won't be seeing the 45 man game roster unless he's on ST. So the question then becomes - who is a more valuable person to carry on the 53 - 5th corner, 7th DL, 4th safety, 10th OL, etc. Essentially, the last 2 spots on the roster are open to any position. IMHO, we keep a 7th DL. So either one of the 3rd year CBs or one of the OLBs goes.

Which makes the spot more or less injury protection.
The 5th corner or 4th S are a heartbeat away from a lot of playing time. The 10th OL or 7th DL wouldnt even get active with 1 injury.

 

[mgteich]

I agree. However, he is the NUMBER FIVE receiver. If there were two injuries, he would be the emergency #3 receiver. I don't consider that situation a depth "problem". I consider it a great situation if a player the quality is available as the #5 receiver,

If this team is consistently using Hernandez as a true "wide receiver", there's a depth problem again, just like last year.

 

[Ring 6]

I expect Price to make the team, as I would with anyone drafted in the first four rounds. My point was that he is a developmental player who will likely be inactive almost always. We can afford that easily since Hernadez is available for WR duties, giving us five solid wide receivers.

I just dont see Hernandez being a WR. But he is a receiving TE which means we can use more formations that include the TE, or even 2 TEs in the passing game.
The hige difference of course, is that we want him covered like a TE, not trying to play as a true WR.

 

[mgteich]

Personally, I would very rarely have more than five defensive linemen active. As we have discussed before, even the #6 DL got very few reps last year.

Which makes the spot more or less injury protection.
The 5th corner or 4th S are a heartbeat away from a lot of playing time. The 10th OL or 7th DL wouldnt even get active with 1 injury.

 

[Ring 6]

Personally, I would very rarely have more than five defensive linemen active. As we have discussed before, even the #6 DL got very few reps last year.

It might be enlighting to look at your last few spots that way. How many of the 'locks' would be game day inactives? Are there clear game day active spots for the s/t only guys.
Baiscally if you are st only you are either active or cut.

 

[mgteich]

Open roster spots are not quite the same as the last three roster spots. As I indicated, I think that the #7, #8 and #9 OL roster spots are wide open. Plus the last three are wide open. That analysis yields a total of SIX open spots. Certainly players like Green-Ellis could take one of these spots.

I do believe that the three spots are wide open and could be filled by players from almost any position. My choice would be special teamers Arrington, Aiken and Woods. I also agree with another poster that 1-3 players could come from other rosters.

As i posted with regard to final three spots,
===============================
The "final" roster spots are usually special teamers, although a 10th OL or 5th RB or 7th DL or a utility player are certainly options. Candidates include ARRINGTON, AIKEN, WOODS, Lockett, Alexander, Williams, Bussey, Wendell, Brown, Fletcher, Deaderick, Larsen and Welch. 10 of these are likely to be cut. Several will be on our Practice Squad. At least one player is likey to come from another team, certainly before September 19th (Game 2).

. However, I think there may be more than three roster spots that are still undecided at this point.

 

[mgteich]

SPECIAL TEAM ONLY ACTIVES
Yes, I agree that special teams only players are good enough to be active in every game that they are healthy, or they are cut.

I project Arrington, Aiken and Woods in those positions. If they were not expected to be active for special teams, I don't that any of the three would make the roster. The inactive roster is for injured players, injury insurance and developmental players.

I would also be fine with Lockett or Slater or even Alexander in one of those slots, or in additional ST spots. Of course, an additional special teams spot would mean cutting a position player from the 53.
=======

"LOCKS" OR MY ROSTER CHOICES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE INACTIVE

1) Price
2, 3) #8 and #9 OL's (neither are locks)
4) Lewis
5) Wilhite (I have Wheatley active before him)
6,7) depends on the game, but McKenzie and McGowan could be two.
(more likely is that two inactives are injured players)

It might be enlighting to look at your last few spots that way. How many of the 'locks' would be game day inactives? Are there clear game day active spots for the s/t only guys.
Baiscally if you are st only you are either active or cut.

 

[Water Boy]

=================================
WHEATLEY AND WILHITE
I see absolutely no reason to cut either of them. We could have the best #5 corner in the league.
==========================================

Great summary, mgteich. I agree with keeping both Wheatley and Wilhite on the 53.

 

[patriot lifer]

good stuff mgteich.

it'll be interesting to see what we do with runningback. We were in the same position last year, and we took everyone (all five). For this year's cuts, we still have 3 backs over 30 years (Faulk, Morris, and Taylor), 2 with a history of injury problems (Taylor and Maroney), and 1 who is not an every down back (Faulk). I don't think any of us would be surprised to see 5 runningbacks again, especially if there is an increased emphasis on the running game. With that being said, BJGE only had 26 rushes last year.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis

Between Alexander and Aiken, I feel as though BB is taking one or even both of these guys. We might have them on the outs in our own 53's, but they are consistently out there with the one's on special teams. Aiken is even out there on offense with the one's at times.

 

[bucky]

Which makes the spot more or less injury protection.
The 5th corner or 4th S are a heartbeat away from a lot of playing time. The 10th OL or 7th DL wouldnt even get active with 1 injury.

I'm not sure the 5th corner gets a lot of PT with 1 injury. It sill leaves 6 DBs ahead of him. But he does become active.

The thing is, those last spots are essentially developmental ones. So while the 10th OL or 7th DL aren't going to make a contribution, they keep him around based on potential. It's pretty obvious that a rookie OL, DL, or even LB would pose more developmental prospect than Sanders or McGowan.

My prediction, barring injuries - Sanders is traded, replaced on the roster by Sergio Brown. Deaderick makes the team. BJGE doesn't. We carry only 9 OL, or possibly even 8. And 2 of the following group don't make it: Woods, Ninkovich, Alexander, Wheatley, Willhite.

 

[mgteich]

Aiken, Woods and Alexander are on the four units in your post. The injured Slater is also on all four. I don't know how many the injured (and top special teamer) Lockett is on. Top gunner Arrington and Ninkovich are on threee units (all but the kick return unit).

I agree that this issue is critical and I do believe that the four of the final players chosen will be from the list above. My current choices to make the team include AIKEN, WOODS, ARRINGTON and NINKOVICH. Belichick will search long and hard before releasing Alexander, Slater and Lockett. All three are top special teamers.

I agree with the likely choices of 3 TE's, 4th ILB, 5th CB and 4th S. However, each of these choices diminishes the quality of the special teams.

This may help with the final 4-5 spots where special teams play is critical.

From ESPN Boston, Special teams breakdown - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

"Punt coverage: Sergio Brown, Kyle Arrington, Brandon McGowan, Eric Alexander, Rob Ninkovich, Jake Ingram, Pierre Woods, Jerod Mayo, Sam Aiken, Patrick Chung, Zoltan Mesko

Punt return: Darius Butler, Kyle Arrington, Patrick Chung, Devin McCourty, James Sanders, Aaron Hernandez, Eric Alexander, Rob Ninkovich, Sam Aiken, Pierre Woods, Brandon Tate

Kickoff coverage: Kyle Arrington, Brandon McGowan, Devin McCourty, Pierre Woods, Eric Alexander, Rob Ninkovich, Sergio Brown, Sam Aiken, Brandon Meriweather, James Sanders, Stephen Gostkowski

Kickoff return: Sam Aiken, Tyrone McKenzie, Marques Murrell, Eric Alexander, Pierre Woods, Brandon McGowan, Alge Crumpler, Dan Connolly, Aaron Hernandez, Sammy Morris, Brandon Tate "


Watch these units closely the next two weeks. I expect one or two players to come from outside the organization, either via waiver wire or by trade. Nervous time of year to be Slater, Aiken, Alexander, Brown, Nincovich, Woods, Murrell, Arrington, etc.

 

[Mark Morse]

Good stuff as always Mgteich

I am leaning toward a Ninkovich, Arrington, Woods trio with Aiken on the move. Woods might get the nod as ST captain.

I still think McGowan is vulnerable ... they could add another Safety that plays ST in his spot.

BJGE is also on the bubble. His ST play has been awful lately! BJGE is a straight ahead runner with no breakaway speed. He is what he is! This could be a spot where they grab somebody off waivers for a look see.

I like that little fireplug RB from JESTS Woodhead ... looks like a real hustler and can contribute on ST.

 

[Metaphors]

"LOCKS" OR MY ROSTER CHOICES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE INACTIVE

1) Price
2, 3) #8 and #9 OL's (neither are locks)
4) Lewis
5) Wilhite (I have Wheatley active before him)
6,7) depends on the game, but McKenzie and McGowan could be two.
(more likely is that two inactives are injured players)

Agree with most of your thinking except in this area. Have no issue with Price, Wheatley, McKenzie and any number of the youngster OL candidates making the 53 as anticipated (assuming perfect roster health) inactives.

Don't agree with Lewis, Wilhite and McGowan though. The inactive list is for injured, developmental or doghouse players (the latter isn't really a good category for cut-down consideration). If a vet has been passed on the roster to the degree that they aren't active...and they were generally used to being active in their career...then they need to move on.

Take McGowan for example. Would you rather have a disgruntled McGowan in the locker room, stewing over the fact that he doesn't even get to dress on game day, or Sergio Brown busting his tail in practice trying to stick in the NFL.

So I'm looking for vets that might slide off the active 45 level of the depth chart (take Wilhite...please) and thinking that they should rent instead of own.

 

[jmt57]

Greg Knopping of Pats Pulpit gives his latest roster projection:

Projecting a Patriots 53 Man Roster: Version 5.0 - Pats Pulpit


In his latest version Knopping has the Pats going with four RB and six WR (BJGE is cut; Aiken is not) and only eight offensive linemen (LeVoir and Bussey over Welch at OT; Wendell over Ohrnberger and others inside.)

Knopping projects six DL (Deaderick over Lewis); five ILB (Alexander survives, Fletcher does not); six OLB (Woods makes the team, along with Murrell and Ninkovich); four safeties and six corners (Wilhite, Wheatley and Arrington all make the cut.)


Knopping also includes a projected Practice Squad; this will need to be updated as it was put together a day before Weston went on IR:

1. Sergio Brown, S, #38
2. Rich Ohrnberger, G/C, #60
3. Thomas Welch, T, #74
4. Kade Weston, DL, #66
5. Rob Meyers, TE, #80
6. Dane Fletcher, ILB, #45
7. Kyle Love, DL, #74
8. Zac Robinson, QB, #7

 

[Fencer]

I think the "healthy scratch" issue can be overstated because, before the season gets too far along, it tends to be pretty much obviated. Suppose we assume the 45 is something like

3 K/P/LS
2 other ST specialists

2 QB
7 OL
3 TE
4 RB
4 WR

5 true DL
4 OLB/nickel DE
3 ILB
7 DB

1 wild card

Then the initial healthy-scratch DBs and RB are going to wind up active for a lot of games, as somebody ahead of them is nicked up. In particular, almost anybody who stays healthy projects to be active for playoff games.

 

[pencilneckgeek]

Focusing on STs play is key. It's probably a useful exercise to look at STs and figure out your starters and reserves at key roles, much like we do with offense defense. (Sounds like a fun way to spend the post-game.) Thinking along those lines:

Assume that the players on all 4 ST units are "starters" and on the roster by default. Assume that players on 3ST units are likely starters and on the roster, if they are good enough to provide depth on offense or defense.

Aiken, Woods, and Alexander are those ST starters. None of them are ever going to be anyone's offensive or defensive binky, but they have important roles on the team. Woods was a (the?) top ST tackler last year. It's hard to ignore that. He also is also a reliable OLB in run support, which despite being an unsexy role for an OLB, is the first job of the front seven in the base defense. Alexander had a big role in the 2nd string defense last week. It will be interesting to see how many of his reps at ILB and on ST go to Guyton this week, as he is the only LB that is faster than Alexander, and speed is king on the coverage units. Aiken is a captain and gets reps on offense. It's clear that BB loves both him and Alexander.

Last season Slater was a four-team ST player, but with his injury, his roles have been filled by McCourty and Sammy Morris, and (Sergio Brown, I think, at gunner). Brown likely won't make the team, which means they'll need to find someone to line up at gunner, across from:

Arrington. Arrington is a Lock.

McGowan seems to be on lots of people's radar for a cut, but he was on 3 ST units last week. That suggests that he will end-up in Lockett's old ST slot, since he can't seem to get on the field. It's not clear that McGowan's dime DB spot goes away with Bodden's return, given that he's provides a hybrid S/LB role in run support in that package. Doubt we'll see 4CBs and 2S in the dime anytime soon. If he overruns another play or three, Chung could move into that role with Sanders behind him, but I still don't see that possibility changing the roster.

I was definitely suprised when Rodak listed Ninkovich as one of the guys on 3 first-string ST units. Considering that and his pass-rushing motor (if not out-and-out prowess), he and Woods could be the 5th and 6th OLB (or 4th and 5th if you count Burgess as the 7th DL). There was a lot of discussion of Murrell as a ST player, so perhaps he could move into Woods or Ninkovich's role, if roster spots get tight. It will be interesting to see if he gets reps on STs this week.

I don't see a 10th OL or 7th DL (aside from Burgess). We'll be relying on the practice squad for extra depth, should the big guys on either side of the ball take a collective beating for a week or two. Bussey, Larsen, OBurger, Wendell, and Welch are all candidates for this role at OL (although I expect 2 of those 5 will make the 53), and Love and Deaderick are likely candidates on DL.

As much as I'm pulling for him, I see Wheatley as a guy in need of a job on this team. I thought I'd see more of him on ST, and I thought he might get a shot in Wilhite's nickel-slot CB slot while Bodden was out. He continues to look good in coverage, but if he's only getting his shot against 2nd-string WRs, he might not be shining in practice against the Pat's arsenal of receivers. I refuse to take him off my 53 yet, but if he doesn't get Wilhite's reps, either one of our core STers or one of our LBs (the 3 lowest of whom on the defensive depth chart are top STers) will have to go.

 

[bucky]

Focusing on STs play is key. It's probably a useful exercise to look at STs and figure out your starters and reserves at key roles, much like we do with offense defense. (Sounds like a fun way to spend the post-game.) Thinking along those lines:

Assume that the players on all 4 ST units are "starters" and on the roster by default. Assume that players on 3ST units are likely starters and on the roster, if they are good enough to provide depth on offense or defense.

Aiken, Woods, and Alexander are those ST starters. None of them are ever going to be anyone's offensive or defensive binky, but they have important roles on the team. Woods was a (the?) top ST tackler last year. It's hard to ignore that. He also is also a reliable OLB in run support, which despite being an unsexy role for an OLB, is the first job of the front seven in the base defense. Alexander had a big role in the 2nd string defense last week. It will be interesting to see how many of his reps at ILB and on ST go to Guyton this week, as he is the only LB that is faster than Alexander, and speed is king on the coverage units. Aiken is a captain and gets reps on offense. It's clear that BB loves both him and Alexander.

Last season Slater was a four-team ST player, but with his injury, his roles have been filled by McCourty and Sammy Morris, and (Sergio Brown, I think, at gunner). Brown likely won't make the team, which means they'll need to find someone to line up at gunner, across from:

Arrington. Arrington is a Lock.

McGowan seems to be on lots of people's radar for a cut, but he was on 3 ST units last week. That suggests that he will end-up in Lockett's old ST slot, since he can't seem to get on the field. It's not clear that McGowan's dime DB spot goes away with Bodden's return, given that he's provides a hybrid S/LB role in run support in that package. Doubt we'll see 4CBs and 2S in the dime anytime soon. If he overruns another play or three, Chung could move into that role with Sanders behind him, but I still don't see that possibility changing the roster.

I was definitely suprised when Rodak listed Ninkovich as one of the guys on 3 first-string ST units. Considering that and his pass-rushing motor (if not out-and-out prowess), he and Woods could be the 5th and 6th OLB (or 4th and 5th if you count Burgess as the 7th DL). There was a lot of discussion of Murrell as a ST player, so perhaps he could move into Woods or Ninkovich's role, if roster spots get tight. It will be interesting to see if he gets reps on STs this week.

I don't see a 10th OL or 7th DL (aside from Burgess). We'll be relying on the practice squad for extra depth, should the big guys on either side of the ball take a collective beating for a week or two. Bussey, Larsen, OBurger, Wendell, and Welch are all candidates for this role at OL (although I expect 2 of those 5 will make the 53), and Love and Deaderick are likely candidates on DL.

As much as I'm pulling for him, I see Wheatley as a guy in need of a job on this team. I thought I'd see more of him on ST, and I thought he might get a shot in Wilhite's nickel-slot CB slot while Bodden was out. He continues to look good in coverage, but if he's only getting his shot against 2nd-string WRs, he might not be shining in practice against the Pat's arsenal of receivers. I refuse to take him off my 53 yet, but if he doesn't get Wilhite's reps, either one of our core STers or one of our LBs (the 3 lowest of whom on the defensive depth chart are top STers) will have to go.

McCourty is your other gunner - and a darn good one. The 2 people who haven't played much on ST to my surprise are Murrell and Morris. I was expecting both of these guys to be on majority of the ST units.

 

[pencilneckgeek]

McCourty is your other gunner - and a darn good one.

Sounds reasonable. According to Reiss/Rodak, he wasn't out there against the Falcons.

Tonight's distribution of reps will be telling on a lot of fronts.

 

[Spiral]

Interesting note from last night's "Hard Knocks." Rex and Tanny were going through the same exercise as people on this thread, trying to predict who will be on their final 53-man roster. At the end of the discussion, Rex says to Tanny: "We don't have enough good football players."

 

[BlueThunder]

That's what seperates the good teams from the really good teams- DEPTH

Jets have a decent starting core...for the most part...but lack quality depth in areas....

One or two injuries and they are out of the race..

I don't have that feeling with the Pats. I even have a good feeling about Hoyer playing, more so than when Cassell was the #2.