4/1/10 Patriots draft game-you make their picks v3.0

[Armchair Quarterback]

Sold! Gronkowski scares the crap out of me and I'd like to see another WR in place of Selvie, but by and large I'd be mighty happy with that haul.

Thanks,I was actually trying to fit WR Andre Roberts in there and would love for the Pats to draft him. I'm also scared of Gronks back but if healthy he could be very good. Jimmy Graham's in the same range but is also high risk/reward justs depends which one to take a chance on potential or health.

 

[jmt57]

22 -- Brandon Graham OLB Michigan
44 -- Rob Gronkowski TE Arizona
48 -- Jimmy Graham TE Miami (Fla.)
53 -- Damian Williams WR Southern California
119 - Daniel Te'o-Nesheim DE Washington
190 - Kevin Haslam OT Rutgers
too lazy to do the rest

I really hope the Pats don't take two tight ends with their first three picks.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Using NFL Draft Scout's ranking and this trade value chart, here goes nothing.

Draft Concept: A paradigm shift is underway in NE - the NFL is pass happy and the team needs to be built around the pass while retaining toughness against the run.

-- Base Defense: 4-2-Nickel

-- Sub-defenses: 3-4 & 4-3 & 4-1-Dime

-- Draft targets - defense:
---- 4-3/3-4 edge rusher: Rather then look for the next Mike Vrabel, NE looks for one or more players who can come off the edge as 4-3 DE types while still playing the run. An effort will be made to draft players with some ability in space to play a short zone.
---- 4-3 pocket disrupter: Myron Pryor appears to have been an experiment with positive results. Like Vince Wilfork he's a powerful run stuffer who can penetrate and disrupt the pocket, to a lesser extent Ron Brace fits that profile, and Adrian Grady was a similar player in college. NE has two similar players carrying first round grades they tried to bring in for visits (Dan Williams, Brian Price). To paraphrase a brief moment of lucidity from Jamie Dukes, they are "power pig" penetrators. NE has also been looking at more traditional 3-4 bodies, but they are mostly in the mid-rounds.
---- Nickel/Dime Safety: Coverage Safeties.

-- Draft targets - offense: Receiving TE/H-back with blocking skills/potential, WR depth, blitz p/u RB.

-- Draft targets - STs: Punter, KR/PR depth, Linebacker depth, Safety depth

If they slide: NE has the horsepower with either a second round pick or their 2011 1st to trade as high as #9 for a player they want. Possible round one targets: DE/OLB Derrick Morgan, DT Dan Williams, S Earl Thomas, DE/OLB Jason Pierre-Paul, DE/OLB Jerry Hughes, RB Ryan Matthews.

For example: patsfans mock draft game has Derrick Morgan going at 16, as do a couple post-McNabb trade mocks from Chris Steuber of Scout.com and Daniel Jeremiah of MovetheSticks.com. Morgan has the size to play a standard 4-3 DE and enough athleticism to develop as another Willie Mac OLB in the 3-4. He also has two-gap experience and some experience playing on his feet. Teams who might move back to 22 for the chance to pick up an extra pick in the second or a first in 2011: Buffalo who needs everything, Jacksonville who has no second, Denver, SF who has two firsts and could come out with two firsts and two seconds, Seattle who has the same opportunity SF has, NYG who are trying to rebuild after a bad season...

Trade: Using the patsfans' mock scenario, Derrick Morgan slips past Jacksonville triggering NE to make a move ahead of Miami who reportedly has also looked at Morgan as an OLB. NE trades #22 (800) & #53 (390) & NE's 2011 4th (32.1) to Denver for #11 (1150) & #114 (72). McDaniels would like the extra second and their needs are such they should be happier picking at #22.

11: Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
44: Tim Tebow, QB, Florida

I believe NE's interest in Tebow is genuine, within the rules of this game Tebow is available here (and in the patsfans mock I'm using for reference). I don't know what BB has in mind for Tebow, but IBBIT.

Trade: Dallas needs Safety help according to two draftnik sites. Two DBs they brought in for visits are ranked as mid-seconds by NFL Draft Scout: NE sends #47 (450) to Dallas for #90 (150) & their 2011 second (330).

90: Dennis Pitta, TE, BYU

Trade: NE 2011 3rd (64) for Philadelphia #105 (90) - I'd have liked to have gotten back into the top of the third, and BB might manage that in reality, but it's easier to project BB and Andy Reid working something out here. Reid, like BB, likes to stockpile picks for the next draft, and BB might be more willing to give up a 3rd than a 2nd in 2011.

105: Mardy Gilyard, WR, Cincinnati
114: Arthur Jones, DT, Syracuse
119: Daniel Te'o-Nesheim, DE/OLB, Washington
190: Dennis Landolt, OL, Penn State
205*: Zoltan Mesko, P, Michigan
229: Deji Karim, RB, Southern Illinois
231: Cody Grimm, S, VA Tech
247*: Jay Ross, DT, East Carolina
248*: Manase Tonga, FB, BYU
250*: Scott Long, WR, Louisville

PFA/FA target pool: NE has 64 players on roster counting Damione Lewis. The offseason limit is 80, this mock acquires 13; however, the 13 won't count against the roster until signed. NE will also have at least one player start camp on PUP, so they can bring in additional Free Agents to workout. Bold are PFA.

Alex Daniels, DE/OLB, Cincinnati
Jim Dray, TE, Stanford
Matt Dodge, P, East Carolina
John Fletcher, DE/OLB, Wyoming
Sean Lissemore, DT, William & Mary
Ramon Harewood, OT, Morehouse
Van Eskridge, S, East Carolina
Mike Brandtner, P, Iowa State
Prince Miller, CB, Georgia
Marc Mariani, WR, Montana
Scott Sicko, TE, New Hampshire
Shann Schillinger, S, Montana
Dorian Brooks, OL, James Madison
Aleric Mullins, DT, North Carolina
Tim Knicky, OLB, Stephen F. Austin
Sherrick McManis, CB, Northwestern
Barry Turner, DE/OLB, Nebraska
Nick McDonald, OL, Grand Valley State
Ricardo Mathews, DT, Cincinnati
Matt Mayberry, ILB, Indiana
Aaron Berry, CB, Pittsburgh
A.J. Jackson, WR, California (PA)
Bryan Anderson, WR, Central Michigan
Frank Zombo, DE/OLB, Central Michigan
Tyler Eastman, OL, Maine
Vincent Rey, ILB, Duke
Robert McClain, CB, UConn
Phil Costa, C, Maryland
Nick Sanders, CB, TCU
Damaso Munoz, S, Rutgers

Draft Recap:
11: Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
44: Tim Tebow, QB, Florida
90: Dennis Pitta, TE, BYU
105: Mardy Gilyard, WR, Cincinnati
114: Arthur Jones, DT, Syracuse
119: Daniel Te'o-Nesheim, DE/OLB, Washington
190: Dennis Landolt, OL, Penn State
205*: Zoltan Mesko, P, Michigan
229: Deji Karim, RB, Southern Illinois
231: Cody Grimm, S, VA Tech
247*: Jay Ross, DT, East Carolina
248*: Manase Tonga, FB, BYU
250*: Scott Long, WR, Louisville

 

[Clonamery]

Using NFL Draft Scout's ranking and this trade value chart, here goes nothing.

Draft Concept: A paradigm shift is underway in NE - the NFL is pass happy and the team needs to be built around the pass while retaining toughness against the run.

-- Base Defense: 4-2-Nickel

-- Sub-defenses: 3-4 & 4-3 & 4-1-Dime

-- Draft targets - defense:
---- 4-3/3-4 edge rusher: Rather then look for the next Mike Vrabel, NE looks for one or more players who can come off the edge as 4-3 DE types while still playing the run. An effort will be made to draft players with some ability in space to play a short zone.
---- 4-3 pocket disrupter: Myron Pryor appears to have been an experiment with positive results. Like Vince Wilfork he's a powerful run stuffer who can penetrate and disrupt the pocket, to a lesser extent Ron Brace fits that profile, and Adrian Grady was a similar player in college. NE has two similar players carrying first round grades they tried to bring in for visits (Dan Williams, Brian Price). To paraphrase a brief moment of lucidity from Jamie Dukes, they are "power pig" penetrators. NE has also been looking at more traditional 3-4 bodies, but they are mostly in the mid-rounds.
---- Nickel/Dime Safety: Coverage Safeties.

-- Draft targets - offense: Receiving TE/H-back with blocking skills/potential, WR depth, blitz p/u RB.

-- Draft targets - STs: Punter, KR/PR depth, Linebacker depth, Safety depth

If they slide: NE has the horsepower with either a second round pick or their 2011 1st to trade as high as #9 for a player they want. Possible round one targets: DE/OLB Derrick Morgan, DT Dan Williams, S Earl Thomas, DE/OLB Jason Pierre-Paul, DE/OLB Jerry Hughes, RB Ryan Matthews.

For example: patsfans mock draft game has Derrick Morgan going at 16, as do a couple post-McNabb trade mocks from Chris Steuber of Scout.com and Daniel Jeremiah of MovetheSticks.com. Morgan has the size to play a standard 4-3 DE and enough athleticism to develop as another Willie Mac OLB in the 3-4. He also has two-gap experience and some experience playing on his feet. Teams who might move back to 22 for the chance to pick up an extra pick in the second or a first in 2011: Buffalo who needs everything, Jacksonville who has no second, Denver, SF who has two firsts and could come out with two firsts and two seconds, Seattle who has the same opportunity SF has, NYG who are trying to rebuild after a bad season...

Trade: Using the patsfans' mock scenario, Derrick Morgan slips past Jacksonville triggering NE to make a move ahead of Miami who reportedly has also looked at Morgan as an OLB. NE trades #22 (800) & #53 (390) & NE's 2011 4th (32.1) to Denver for #11 (1150) & #114 (72). McDaniels would like the extra second and their needs are such they should be happier picking at #22.

11: Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
44: Tim Tebow, QB, Florida

I believe NE's interest in Tebow is genuine, within the rules of this game Tebow is available here (and in the patsfans mock I'm using for reference). I don't know what BB has in mind for Tebow, but IBBIT.

Trade: Dallas needs Safety help according to two draftnik sites. Two DBs they brought in for visits are ranked as mid-seconds by NFL Draft Scout: NE sends #47 (450) to Dallas for #90 (150) & their 2011 second (330).

90: Dennis Pitta, TE, BYU

Trade: NE 2011 3rd (64) for Philadelphia #105 (90) - I'd have liked to have gotten back into the top of the third, and BB might manage that in reality, but it's easier to project BB and Andy Reid working something out here. Reid, like BB, likes to stockpile picks for the next draft, and BB might be more willing to give up a 3rd than a 2nd in 2011.

105: Mardy Gilyard, WR, Cincinnati
114: Arthur Jones, DT, Syracuse
119: Daniel Te'o-Nesheim, DE/OLB, Washington
190: Dennis Landolt, OL, Penn State
205*: Zoltan Mesko, P, Michigan
229: Deji Karim, RB, Southern Illinois
231: Cody Grimm, S, VA Tech
247*: Jay Ross, DT, East Carolina
248*: Manase Tonga, FB, BYU
250*: Scott Long, WR, Louisville

PFA/FA target pool: NE has 64 players on roster counting Damione Lewis. The offseason limit is 80, this mock acquires 13; however, the 13 won't count against the roster until signed. NE will also have at least one player start camp on PUP, so they can bring in additional Free Agents to workout. Bold are PFA.

Alex Daniels, DE/OLB, Cincinnati
Jim Dray, TE, Stanford
Matt Dodge, P, East Carolina
John Fletcher, DE/OLB, Wyoming
Sean Lissemore, DT, William & Mary
Ramon Harewood, OT, Morehouse
Van Eskridge, S, East Carolina
Mike Brandtner, P, Iowa State
Prince Miller, CB, Georgia
Marc Mariani, WR, Montana
Scott Sicko, TE, New Hampshire
Shann Schillinger, S, Montana
Dorian Brooks, OL, James Madison
Aleric Mullins, DT, North Carolina
Tim Knicky, OLB, Stephen F. Austin
Sherrick McManis, CB, Northwestern
Barry Turner, DE/OLB, Nebraska
Nick McDonald, OL, Grand Valley State
Ricardo Mathews, DT, Cincinnati
Matt Mayberry, ILB, Indiana
Aaron Berry, CB, Pittsburgh
A.J. Jackson, WR, California (PA)
Bryan Anderson, WR, Central Michigan
Frank Zombo, DE/OLB, Central Michigan
Tyler Eastman, OL, Maine
Vincent Rey, ILB, Duke
Robert McClain, CB, UConn
Phil Costa, C, Maryland
Nick Sanders, CB, TCU
Damaso Munoz, S, Rutgers

Draft Recap:
11: Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
44: Tim Tebow, QB, Florida
90: Dennis Pitta, TE, BYU
105: Mardy Gilyard, WR, Cincinnati
114: Arthur Jones, DT, Syracuse
119: Daniel Te'o-Nesheim, DE/OLB, Washington
190: Dennis Landolt, OL, Penn State
205*: Zoltan Mesko, P, Michigan
229: Deji Karim, RB, Southern Illinois
231: Cody Grimm, S, VA Tech
247*: Jay Ross, DT, East Carolina
248*: Manase Tonga, FB, BYU
250*: Scott Long, WR, Louisville

Let's just say, for non-vomiting argument's sake, that BB doesn't hit his head getting up on that Friday morning and he DOES NOT draft Tebow at #44, who you pick instead?

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Let's just say, for non-vomiting argument's sake, that BB doesn't hit his head getting up on that Friday morning and he DOES NOT draft Tebow at #44, who you pick instead?

Not draft Tebow? What a reactionary idea. I do expect BB to seriously consider drafting Tebow, but I doubt NE gets him without some fancy trading at the end of round one.

Okay, no Tebow, NFLDS' ranking has Tyson Alualu, DT, California listed at 44, since he was just in for a visit, and was one of the players I've been expecting to show up on NE's radar based on my defensive expectations, he's the best pick at #44.

 

[patchick]

Draft Recap:
11: Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
44: Tim Tebow, QB, Florida
90: Dennis Pitta, TE, BYU
105: Mardy Gilyard, WR, Cincinnati
114: Arthur Jones, DT, Syracuse
119: Daniel Te'o-Nesheim, DE/OLB, Washington
190: Dennis Landolt, OL, Penn State
205*: Zoltan Mesko, P, Michigan
229: Deji Karim, RB, Southern Illinois
231: Cody Grimm, S, VA Tech
247*: Jay Ross, DT, East Carolina
248*: Manase Tonga, FB, BYU
250*: Scott Long, WR, Louisville

Mmm, niiiiiice -- even though I'm not with you on Tebow. My version ended up with a trade up for Morgan too (not to mention Te'o-Nesheim + Karim).

Morgan seems like a rare argument-solver at the position, and I don't think it's unrealistic. IMO it hinges on McClain. If I'm Denver, I pull the trigger on McClain at #11 if he's available. It's a huge need, and nobody else in this draft comes close to him. But IF McClain's gone and Morgan's still available, a nice plan B would be to trade down to #22, a solid value spot for Pouncey, and pick up an extra 2nd rounder.

 

[dryheat44]

Mmm, niiiiiice -- even though I'm not with you on Tebow. My version ended up with a trade up for Morgan too (not to mention Te'o-Nesheim + Karim).

Morgan seems like a rare argument-solver at the position, and I don't think it's unrealistic. IMO it hinges on McClain. If I'm Denver, I pull the trigger on McClain at #11 if he's available. It's a huge need, and nobody else in this draft comes close to him. But IF McClain's gone and Morgan's still available, a nice plan B would be to trade down to #22, a solid value spot for Pouncey, and pick up an extra 2nd rounder.

I guessed I used the wrong option for the mock draft guides, as Morgan went at #8 per Scout.com. He is my #1 target, but I wouldn't move up to #8 to get him. Playing BB at the draft, it wouldn't even cross my mind at that point.

 

[WhiZa]

I really hope the Pats don't take two tight ends with their first three picks.

I don't think it's far fetched though. Jimmy Graham is my favorite player of the draft, but I don't think the Pats will take him. That pick could probably be changed, but i didn't see much based on the value chart.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Mmm, niiiiiice -- even though I'm not with you on Tebow. My version ended up with a trade up for Morgan too (not to mention Te'o-Nesheim + Karim).

Morgan seems like a rare argument-solver at the position, and I don't think it's unrealistic. IMO it hinges on McClain. If I'm Denver, I pull the trigger on McClain at #11 if he's available. It's a huge need, and nobody else in this draft comes close to him. But IF McClain's gone and Morgan's still available, a nice plan B would be to trade down to #22, a solid value spot for Pouncey, and pick up an extra 2nd rounder.

McClain is a good value for them, but I'm not as high on him as some and think Josh & Co. would see more value in picking up an extra second and moving down where they could target OC/OG, WR, or TE. Spikes is a better blitzer and would actually fit better in the 3-4 they are using, they could also draft someone like Edds for his coverage ability and size since the LBs for that version of the 3-4 don't need to be 250+ lb rocks like NE or Miami would use.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I guessed I used the wrong option for the mock draft guides, as Morgan went at #8 per Scout.com. He is my #1 target, but I wouldn't move up to #8 to get him. Playing BB at the draft, it wouldn't even cross my mind at that point.

If you consider he was willing to pay an ILB #10 rates, and he wasn't too happy with how last season went, I can see him using part of his ammo to tempt Oakland for the best all-around edge rusher in the draft.

 

[Nonentity]

So Box, now I see where you were coming from a few days ago. Big Nickel as base defense - intriguing.

It can work, but the 4 down linemen are so so critical. There's only two fully fledged linebackers so you have to ensure that the OL can't get to the second level, otherwise they will get creamed. Screen plays and sweep/trap plays could kill this defense. The two SSes are going to be absolutely crucial in defending the run, and I'm not sure there's the players out there to fill this role. Colleges have far more FS than SS these days, reflecting the tendency towards a passing game.


Thinking about it more, I don't like it. I want a big defensive line getting the attention of the OL, with as many players as possible playing behind the line of scrimmage, flowing to the ball every time. There's obvious benefits from a big nickel on standard plays, but as soon as offensive personnel aren't lined up in their usual spots, you're screwed. Everyone can move except the linemen, so the fewer linemen the better.

 

[dryheat44]

If you consider he was willing to pay an ILB #10 rates, and he wasn't too happy with how last season went, I can see him using part of his ammo to tempt Oakland for the best all-around edge rusher in the draft.

Yes, but the difference is we were trading down. If we had, say, the #8 pick in the draft, I don't doubt Morgan could be the pick. But I can't imagine paying the cost to go from #22 to #8.

If BB does this, though, I'd be OK with it. Though it might cost giving Oakland their 2011 #1 back.

Incidently, the latest MTS mock has Morgan going to the Giants at #15. I would hope BB would make his best offer to move up to that range.

http://www.movethesticks.com/

 

[patchick]

McClain is a good value for them, but I'm not as high on him as some and think Josh & Co. would see more value in picking up an extra second and moving down where they could target OC/OG, WR, or TE. Spikes is a better blitzer and would actually fit better in the 3-4 they are using, they could also draft someone like Edds for his coverage ability and size since the LBs for that version of the 3-4 don't need to be 250+ lb rocks like NE or Miami would use.

So much the better for the Pats' shot at Morgan, then. I'm with DryHeat that #8 is probably too high, but if he makes it to 11 I'll be holding my breath.

 

[dryheat44]

So Box, now I see where you were coming from a few days ago. Big Nickel as base defense - intriguing.

It can work, but the 4 down linemen are so so critical. There's only two fully fledged linebackers so you have to ensure that the OL can't get to the second level, otherwise they will get creamed. Screen plays and sweep/trap plays could kill this defense. The two SSes are going to be absolutely crucial in defending the run, and I'm not sure there's the players out there to fill this role. Colleges have far more FS than SS these days, reflecting the tendency towards a passing game.


Thinking about it more, I don't like it. I want a big defensive line getting the attention of the OL, with as many players as possible playing behind the line of scrimmage, flowing to the ball every time. There's obvious benefits from a big nickel on standard plays, but as soon as offensive personnel aren't lined up in their usual spots, you're screwed. Everyone can move except the linemen, so the fewer linemen the better.

Agree 100%. As much as the spread offense has infiltrated the league, the #1 goal on defense is, and probably always will be, to stop the run. Running a big nickel base against Peyton Manning? Sure. I'd dare the Colts to run on me all day long and take my chances with their undersized, pass-blocking focused, offensive line. But as your base defense against the other 30 teams, I doubt it'll work.

 

[Nonentity]

Yup. It's much easier to move the ball on the ground than it is to move the ball through the air, so you need to be able to stop the run as a pre-requisite. I base that on the fumble rate compared to the negative pass play rate (sacks + interceptions).

If you're vunerable to the pass, the offense still has to complete the throw. If you're vunerable to the run, they just run forwards.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

So Box, now I see where you were coming from a few days ago. Big Nickel as base defense - intriguing.

It can work, but the 4 down linemen are so so critical. There's only two fully fledged linebackers so you have to ensure that the OL can't get to the second level, otherwise they will get creamed. Screen plays and sweep/trap plays could kill this defense. The two SSes are going to be absolutely crucial in defending the run, and I'm not sure there's the players out there to fill this role. Colleges have far more FS than SS these days, reflecting the tendency towards a passing game.


Thinking about it more, I don't like it. I want a big defensive line getting the attention of the OL, with as many players as possible playing behind the line of scrimmage, flowing to the ball every time. There's obvious benefits from a big nickel on standard plays, but as soon as offensive personnel aren't lined up in their usual spots, you're screwed. Everyone can move except the linemen, so the fewer linemen the better.

Let's start from the personnel currently onboard:

DT: Wilfork, Brace, Pryor, Grady
DT/DE: Warren, Wright, Richard
DE/OLB: Banta-Cain, Woods, Ninkovich, Davis, Murell, Crable
LB: Mayo, Guyton, McKenzie, Alexander, Williams
N/A: Thomas
CB: Bodden, Springs, Wilhite, Butler, Wheatley, Arrington
S: Sanders, Meriweather, Chung, McGowan, Lockett

Big 40 front: Warren, Wilfork, Pryor, Wright...this is a first/second down front intended to stop the run, while remaining flexible enough to pressure the QB. All four DL have proven capable of eating double-teams at the point of attack, demonstrated excellent lateral agility defending against stretch plays, and are good at collapsing a pocket. Back them up with Guyton at Sam, Mayo at Will, and McKenzie at Mike and you have two 250 lb OLBs who can run 4.5 or better to get to the ball carrier and a pigskin seeking missile at Mike, especially if they're being protected by the wide body lads.

You can rotate in Brace, Grady, and Richard to keep the wide bodies fresh.

Nickel 40: For the moment Banta-Cain and probably Ninkovich will be your DEs. Wilfork and Wright can rotate with Warren and Pryor inside. Guyton and Mayo are your LBs. You can go with a Nickel Safety if you're concerned they may try to run, otherwise a Nickelback.

30 front: Warren, Wilfork, Wright, just like usual. For now Ninkovich takes the other OLB slot.

Now draft well and I think things won't be as bad as you fear.

 

[bucky]

Let's start from the personnel currently onboard:

DT: Wilfork, Brace, Pryor, Grady
DT/DE: Warren, Wright, Richard
DE/OLB: Banta-Cain, Woods, Ninkovich, Davis, Murell, Crable
LB: Mayo, Guyton, McKenzie, Alexander, Williams
N/A: Thomas
CB: Bodden, Springs, Wilhite, Butler, Wheatley, Arrington
S: Sanders, Meriweather, Chung, McGowan, Lockett

Big 40 front: Warren, Wilfork, Pryor, Wright...this is a first/second down front intended to stop the run, while remaining flexible enough to pressure the QB. All four DL have proven capable of eating double-teams at the point of attack, demonstrated excellent lateral agility defending against stretch plays, and are good at collapsing a pocket. Back them up with Guyton at Sam, Mayo at Will, and McKenzie at Mike and you have two 250 lb OLBs who can run 4.5 or better to get to the ball carrier and a pigskin seeking missile at Mike, especially if they're being protected by the wide body lads.

You can rotate in Brace, Grady, and Richard to keep the wide bodies fresh.

Nickel 40: For the moment Banta-Cain and probably Ninkovich will be your DEs. Wilfork and Wright can rotate with Warren and Pryor inside. Guyton and Mayo are your LBs. You can go with a Nickel Safety if you're concerned they may try to run, otherwise a Nickelback.

30 front: Warren, Wilfork, Wright, just like usual. For now Ninkovich takes the other OLB slot.

Now draft well and I think things won't be as bad as you fear.

This nickel base you're suggesting is not exactly a revolutionary idea. In essence, you're suggesting a small pass-rushing front 4 and replacing one of the LBs with a big safety. Now, if you take that safety and put him in the slot, or where the WLB would play in a 4-3, and then play mostly cover 2 and cover 3, you end up with essentially the Tampa 2.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

This nickel base you're suggesting is not exactly a revolutionary idea. In essence, you're suggesting a small pass-rushing front 4 and replacing one of the LBs with a big safety. Now, if you take that safety and put him in the slot, or where the WLB would play in a 4-3, and then play mostly cover 2 and cover 3, you end up with essentially the Tampa 2.

Who called it revolutionary? I'm just trying to make sense of NE's workout list in light of what we know about their player preferences for the 3-4. I don't expect NE to use a Tampa-2, I expect them to stay two-gap on run downs and use their 3-4 DEs on the edge, then shift to a lighter front with faster edge rushers on passing downs. I suspect they have been analyzing the college programs who have the best success against spread offenses and are trying to adapt some of those concepts to the NFL while retaining the ability to defense more traditional NFL attacks.

 

[Nonentity]

But if you run a Big 4 man front you're going to get killed in the air. Yes, players like Wilfork have the ability to collapse the pocket, but it takes them far too long to get to the QB once they do so. Offenses can just play everything out of a singleback formation, keep the TE in to block as necessary and they then have 3 receivers and a running back to check down to. With that amount of time, we'd get killed by any team with a decent QB.

I think this is why the 3-4 works, and the standard 4-3 as well. Enough strength in the middle, enough speed off the edge.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

But if you run a Big 4 man front you're going to get killed in the air. Yes, players like Wilfork have the ability to collapse the pocket, but it takes them far too long to get to the QB once they do so. Offenses can just play everything out of a singleback formation, keep the TE in to block as necessary and they then have 3 receivers and a running back to check down to. With that amount of time, we'd get killed by any team with a decent QB.

I think this is why the 3-4 works, and the standard 4-3 as well. Enough strength in the middle, enough speed off the edge.

It's a chess match on artificial and natural turf surfaces. For every example you cite, NE's defense is being designed/built to meet the challenge. It's that time of year when I get optimistic about seeing NE draft some edge rush help - perhaps this year it will happen.

Regardless of 3-4, 4-3, 5-2 or 2-5 NE needs to have the personnel to make them work. The offensive personnel decisions also factor in because a good offense is an aid to a good defense.

Your concern with formation only addresses part of the issue, I'm currently trying to forecast formation tendencies based on personnel under consideration. NE has looked at duel-use personnel in the mid to late rounds, to date the DL forecast to go in rounds one and two are more in keeping with a 40 front, that has led to my speculation in the mock. You and I can argue the merits of the individual formations, but BB has already decided - I'm just trying to guess what his decision will be.