BOTTOM LINE
I personally want us to re-sign LOTS of our free agents, sign 2-5 key mid-levle free agents (as we usually do) from other teams and then have few needs coming into the draft. Then, and only, can we really consider drafting two blue chippers that will likely contribute in 2010. I fear that if we have a similar draft to 2009, we should not be favored to win our division.
I agree that we need to plug a bunch of potential holes before we can look at drafting "blue chippers". My fear is that if we don't adequately plug the holes, we will need to use the draft for depth instead of to add talent.
My ideal offseason at this early stage would look something like the following:
1. Franchise Wilfork and either trade him or re-sign him long term.
2. Hopefully resign UFA TE Ben Watson and CB Leigh Bodden, or replace them in FA. I'd much rather not use the draft to replace departed players. I really don't want to use a 2nd round pick on a CB or TE because we lost productive players who could have been resigned, unless the cost is truly prohibitive, given our other needs.
3. Tender Goskowski at the 1st round level or sign him to a long term deal.
4. Tender Mankins at the 1st+3rd level. If someone wants to sign him to a huge contract, take the picks. Resign Stephen Neal if possible for something like 2 years at reasonable money.
5. Consider re-signing Derrick Burgess, Jarvis Green and Kevin Faulk if it can be done for reasonable money (somewhere around 2 years at $2M each, give or take). I think this would take pressure off of having rookies fill critical roles right away. For example, with Burgess and TBC at OLB we could draft some high upside prospects and take a year or two to develop them. Similarly, we could draft a top OG to eventually succeed Neal, but not need him to start day 1.
6. Try and trade Adalius Thomas. He should have value in spite of everything. He's still one of the more talented LBs out there, and someone should be interested. I'd be thrilled to get a 3rd round pick.
Depending on who we lose, I could certainly see us bringing in a few mid-range FAs, especially for depth at WR. I would also like to see us add at least one FA at either ILB or as a DE/OLB pass rusher. The guy I would really like to see us get is Karlos Dansby, who would provide veteran leadership and would be an ideal SILB complement to Jerod Mayo at WILB, but I don't know what Arizona will due with him (they've franchised him twice and would have to pay him close to $10M to tag him this year, but I don't know if they would just let him walk) or whether the cost would be prohibitive. A pass rusher like Aaron Kampman (or Shawn Merriman, if he becomes a UFA) would be nice.
IF we manage to do all of that prior to the draft, then I think we are in good position to target one or more blue chip prospects.
- If we trade Wilfork, then we pretty much have to draft Terrance Cody or Dan Williams as a replacement (unless we sign a FA replacement such as Casey Hampton), but we will have extra picks to do so.
- If someone signs Logan Mankins then we pretty much have to draft a top OG prospect like Mike Iupati, but we will have extra picks to do so.
Otherwise, I think we can try to target one or more guys with the potential to be playmakers and impact players, with a particular emphasis on the pass rush and the OL/DL. I would be particularly interested in any (not necessarily all) the following:
- A "strong side" DE/OLB like Carlos Dunlap, Greg Romeus or Greg Hardy
- A "weak side" DE/OLB like Austen Lane, Jason Pierre-Paul or Sergio Kindle
- An OG to groom behind Stephen Neal such as Gabe Carimi, Vlad Ducasse, Mike Johnson or Mike Pouncey
- A RT to eventually complement Sebastian Vollmer, such as Brian Bulaga (1st round), Carimi or Ducasse (2nd round), Jared Veldheer (3rd-4th) or Chris Marinelli (3rd-4th)
- An all-purpose playmaker such as CJ Spiller, Jahvid Best or Dexter McCluster
- A 5 technique DE such as Corey Wootten, Arthur Jones or Jared Odrick
Assuming we pick in the 22-25 range, I think there's a good chance that a blue chip prospect such as a Spiller, Cody, Dunlap, Pierre-Paul or Bulaga falls to us, or at least to within range where a trade up can be done for reasonable cost.