OT: Most Improved Team, Fastest Falling Team?

[jmt57]

Biggest drop from last year's record: Bucs, Broncos
Biggest rise from last year's record: Packers, Seahawks


Regarding the comment that there was no way Pittsburgh would go 12-4 again: I completely disagree. First of all, they had almost no losses in free agency - almost unheard of for a super bowl champion.

Second, take a look at their schedule. They get the conference's weakest division, the AFC West; and the NFC North, which went a combined 25-39 last year. Absent from their schedule are both the Pats and Colts this season. Only once do they have to travel across more than one time zone; no west coast games at all. The furthest they travel is to Denver - and that is after a bye week.

Pittsburgh only has one game with a shorter week to prepare than their opponent: a home game against the Bengals after that Monday night game at Denver. The only other game with a short week to prepare is a late season game against the Browns, who may be looking ahead to the off-season at that point. Their toughest game of the year comes in week one one at home against the Titans - and then they get ten days to prepare for the next game.

 

[Kontradiction]

Not so sure I agree with you about Jacksonville. First, they picked #8 in the draft last year, so I can't see how they have very far to fall. Second, they seemed to do the smart thing in drafting Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton at OT in the first 2 rounds to rebuild their line. I don't see them being a contender in 2009 but I don't see them being worse than in 2008, and once the OL matures they could be nasty in a few years.

They still have retained the majority of a team that went 11-5 in 2007 with what looked like (at the time) a steady hand in Garrard. And, as you said, they did pick #8 this year, using the pick to steady the offensive line (which was blamed for Garrard's bad year in 2008). However, Monroe and Britton have not been looking good in TC and the line didn't look any better last night against Miami. I know it's just the first preseason game, but Garrard was running around for his life, much like he was in 2008. Those lineman might develop or they might not. But I took the facts I had at hand and made my decision on them. I can see where you and others are coming from though which is why I chose to add Tampa as well.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

The criteria for judging improvement and decline aren't clear.

Non-Playoff teams to Playoffs? Playoff teams to the Golf Course in January? Then, I'd put the Bears in the Playoffs and maybe Seattle and Buffalo (the latter as a Wildcard, mind you). I don't move the Saints because I like both the Falcons and Panthers in their Division. On the flip side, I don't expect the Dolphins or Cardinals to make the Playoffs this year.

Improvement or decline in W/L records? I think that Seattle will have the greatest rebound from a poor 2008 (4--12) and I look for Houston to make the AFC South an uncomfortable place for the Colts and Titans. On the other side of the coin, with a lot tougher schedule, the Dolphins will be lucky to win 8 games this year; remember, Chad always has his "season that makes you think he's gonna be great" right before his "season that reminds you why you didn't like him."

 

[borg]

Most improved:
+ 8 games
From 11 wins last year to 19 wins this year
Your New England Patriots

 

[Synovia]

They still have retained the majority of a team that went 11-5 in 2007 with what looked like (at the time) a steady hand in Garrard.

They did, but I'd really be surprised if Garrard ever has another season like 2007. Guys just don't throw 3 INTs a season. They got a lot of lucky that season.

 

[Rob0729]

Fastest Falling

The Colts - Lost Dungy. O-line (especially LT) is in shambles (Manning got sacked three times on the opening drive in the first preseason game), defense is already injured, loss of Marvin Harrison and no one really stepping up to be the #3. Bob Sanders very likely to be on the PUP for the first six games. They were a team that won 3-4 games they should have lost last year. You cannot do that year after year. They should have fallen last year and I think this is the year they finally do it. Their schedule for the last 6 or so games last year was a joke (SD, Cleveland, Cincy, Detriot, Jacksonville, and a Titans team that rested their starters) and will face a tougher schedule this year.

Most Improved

Houston - Gave away a sure win against the Colts last year because Sage Rosenfels made two bonehead costly errors in a sure win. As long as Matt Schaub stays healthy, they could be a 10-11 win team and potentially contend for the division.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I really think San Diego is going to be vastly improved and I think Atlanta with Ryan at QB will be improved as well.

I think Miami's house of cards will crumble this season. Followed by Arizona.

 

[Sicilian]

Most improved I'm going to go with the Pats, honestly. Not because I think they'll have the greatest jump in number of wins, but I just get the feeling they're going to look and feel a lot stronger than they did last year, on both sides of the ball.

Team in decline? Tennessee Titans. I think the Haynesworth loss is going to be bigger than they think, and you can only get away with Collins for so long. Vince Young isn't the solution until he proves otherwise.

 

[everlong]

Most improved: GB lost 7 games by less than a TD last year. Had a very nice draft to improve the defense. Rogers second year starting and he did well last year.

Biggest Step back: 13 wins by Titans. They lost Haynesworth. They still don't have a receiving core. I don't think Collins will repeat his performance of last year because the defense allowed them to be able to hand off all day. Collins only threw for 2676 with 12 TDs and 7 INTs. Without Haynesworth they will be playing from behind more often and he won't be able to handle it. If they go to Young I don't see it being much better.

Don't get me wrong they're probably still a 9 win team but when you had the best record in football the year before that's a mighty step back.

 

[spacecrime]

Re: OT Most Improved Team, Fastest Falling Team?

A lot of people have the Bears as big time upward movers, but I'm not sure if the Bears are going to be as good as everyone thinks.

Count me among those few who think the Bears will be fortunate to win as many games as last year. I know I'm in a minority, but Cutler has never impressed me. Poor decison maker and a gunslinger, the only thing going for him is his powerful arm. But Rohan Davey and Ryan Leaf had powerful arms. It takes more than that to be a QB.

 

[Synovia]

Re: OT Most Improved Team, Fastest Falling Team?

Count me among those few who think the Bears will be fortunate to win as many games as last year. I know I'm in a minority, but Cutler has never impressed me. Poor decison maker and a gunslinger, the only thing going for him is his powerful arm. But Rohan Davey and Ryan Leaf had powerful arms. It takes more than that to be a QB.

If you really think Rohan Davey and Ryan Leaf are comparable to Cutler, who put up a +22% DVOA last year, you're an idiot.


The only reason the Denver Broncos were'nt hanging out in 0-16 Raiders Land last year was their phenomenal passing game, and Cutler was at the center of that.

 

[Rob0729]

Re: OT Most Improved Team, Fastest Falling Team?

Count me among those few who think the Bears will be fortunate to win as many games as last year. I know I'm in a minority, but Cutler has never impressed me. Poor decison maker and a gunslinger, the only thing going for him is his powerful arm. But Rohan Davey and Ryan Leaf had powerful arms. It takes more than that to be a QB.

I'm with you. I have said for a while that long term the Broncos may have improved themselves trading away Cutler than if they kept him. He is a poor man's Brett Favre without the HOF caliber talent.

 

[Synovia]

Re: OT Most Improved Team, Fastest Falling Team?

Cutler... is a poor man's Brett Favre without the HOF caliber talent.

I'm unconvinced. Cutler is better than Favre in pretty much every possible rate stat.
YPA Comp% Int% Sack% Rate
Cutler: 7.4 62.5 3.03% 4.18% 87.1
Favre: 7.0 61.6 3.40% 5.05% 85.4

And for those of you advanced stats guys, Cutler has a career DVOA of +16.9%.



He's better in pretty much every category I check, and he hasn't even hit his prime yet. And if you compare it to just Favre's first 3 years, Cutler absolutely destroys him.

 

[mayoclinic]

I'm surprised no one's said it so far but ...

Most improved = Patriots. From 11-5 but missing the playoffs to 16-0 plus a SB. :singing:

 

[bostonia3333]

Most overhyped and overrated team: Philadelphia Eagles--they had a great playoff run last year, but many forget they played poorly for a great stretch of games last year. I doubt they are consistent for 16 gms--this team strikes me as a team that gets hot and cold. Who is their go to WR? Jackson? Is he supposed to be a gamebreaker? Who is their power RB for those 3rd and short plays near the goal line? Their defense is top 10 in my opinion. The coach is still a tad conservative to be a SB winner IMO. Even if Mcnabb and Vick are on their best behavior, the Philly media will create false stories about their relationship, and we know how mentally tough Mcnabb is. I still think this is a 9-7/10-6 team, but not a super bowl winner which so many people are saying.

Most improved teams: 1. Minnesota--this is pretty obvious. Minnesota is a scary team--the Giants fans have become a bit queasy during the last few hours. Minnesota has the best running back in the NFL by a mile, the best home field advantage, a top 12 qb who isn't afraid to throw the ball down the field, above average playmakers in the wideout position, top 10 pass rush, top 10 secondary--this team is loaded. They don't have a super bowl coach which could prove to be disastrous in the NFC Championship game.
2. New England--- The Pats were not the best TEAM in 2007, they had the best offense of all time--the defense was bailed out in several games and was often overlooked. Indy was the best team in 2007 as I felt they had the complete team and could have gone 19-0 had they beat us in that Week 9 game. 2009is gonna be a horror show for the rest of the league. The Pats are so angry its hard to put it into words. Belichick is ticked, I can't imagine what Brady is thinking that he lost a year of his career on a cheap shot. Anyway, the addition of Brady, Bodden, Chung, Burgess, and Taylor might be enough tweaking to make this team as Junior Seau puts it, "part of ever!"

The team that no one wants to play in the playoffs: Dallas Cowboys--they have nothing to lose--not many are predicting a playoff berth for this squad. Things have been so quiet at Cowboy camp, it's pretty eery. They are super talented on both sides of the ball and lost a parasitic receiver. They have the best pass rusher in the gm, a potential gamebreaking qb in Romo, and are moving into a beautiful new stadium. The secondary will be torched from time to time and Wade Phillips might be replaced by Jason Garrett in midseason if things aren't at least 5-3/4-4 after 8 gms.

The team that concerns me most as a Pats fan: Indianapolis--Circle the date on the calendar folks. Week 9 will decide home field advantage in the 2009 AFC--lots of Pats fans keep saying Indy will miss the playoffs. It seems like this has been said the last 3 years. They have banged out 12-4/13-3 seasons for ages now, and I can't see their playoff run end just yet. Pats at Colts is gonna be the game of the year with so many implications. The good news is Lucas Oil stadium isn't the same home field advantage that the RCA dome was as the real fans have been priced out. As far as the Colts are concerned, Peyton Manning always has time to throw against the Pats. The Pats pass rush has been nonexistent against the Colts. Hopefully things will change with Burgess, Pryor, and Crable, but I still have some concern that these players will stay healthy for this year. No one has really figured out how to cover that fatso Dallas Clark yet.

Worst team in NFL: Denver Broncos
Best team in NFL: Patriots
MVP of NFL: Adrian Peterson
Defensive player of Year: Jerod Mayo
Coach of the Year: Sean Payton
Super Bowl: Pats over Saints

 

[Rob0729]

Re: OT Most Improved Team, Fastest Falling Team?

I'm unconvinced. Cutler is better than Favre in pretty much every possible rate stat.
YPA Comp% Int% Sack% Rate
Cutler: 7.4 62.5 3.03% 4.18% 87.1
Favre: 7.0 61.6 3.40% 5.05% 85.4

And for those of you advanced stats guys, Cutler has a career DVOA of +16.9%.



He's better in pretty much every category I check, and he hasn't even hit his prime yet. And if you compare it to just Favre's first 3 years, Cutler absolutely destroys him.

Favre has been playing for nearly 20 years. You cannot compare career totals. When Favre was at his best, he was one of the best QBs of all time. Cutler isn't even close. Favre over the last 5-8 years has been a shell of himself (at least most of the time). Favre when he was in his prime is ten times better than Cutler is now.

Besides, you cannot compare how fast QBs get acclimated in two different eras. Back in the 90s, QBs were slowly groomed for the spotlight and this decade QBs are thrown into the fire and are productive faster.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Re: OT Most Improved Team, Fastest Falling Team?

Biggest step up: could very well be the Pats. Could be the Packers. I could see Houston turning some heads too if Schaub can stay healthy.

Biggest fall: Cardinals, Chargers, and Dolphins will all be significantly worse than they were last year, IMO. I also don't buy that the Titans will be fine without Haynesworth. They might be, but saying that that isn't a huge loss is dumb.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I'm surprised no one's said it so far but ...

Most improved = Patriots. From 11-5 but missing the playoffs to 16-0 plus a SB. :singing:

I can do without getting the 16--0 thing going again (lived thru that once and don't want to do it again), but indeed they were not a playoff team last year and if they win the SB this year, they would qualify for " Most Improved" no doubt; not the same as going from 5--11, as they did in 2001, but good enough for me!

 

[Rob0729]

BTW, I don't count the Patriots just because the loss of Brady made last season be a bit of an aboration. If Cassel was more polished when he became the starter in September, the Pats could have had 13-14 wins.

When I tried to look at who would be the most improved team and fastest falling, I tried not look at teams who had an one year abborration like the Pats or Dolphins or Falcons. If their fortunes change after one year, I don't know if I would say they fit the criteria. Granted others may disagree.

 

[Deus Irae]

I'll give it a whirl....

Improving:

Patriots (The Brady thing)
Chiefs (won't necessarily reflect in the record)
Vikings (In quality even if not overmuch in record)
Jaguars
Bengals

Falling:

Bucs
Dolphins
Ravens
Panthers