Bill Simmons: 2008 AFC Predictions

[ICSB]

I think the Jags will win the South, but it isn't because I am in love with the Jags. It is because I think the Colts are in for a down year. I think they have a ton of injury concerns up and down their roster. How will Manning hold up if he has uncontrolable knee swelling as rumored? How will his line hold up with three rookies manning the interior part of their line with a center who has never snapped the ball to Manning ever other than a week or two worth of practice? Can Harrison rebound? Can Sanders stay healthy? Will Freeney regain his speed? How will they deal with their thin LB corp?

Personally, I think the Jags will stay about the same from last year. I just agree with Simmons that the Colts will struggle to make the playoffs. I pick them as a Wild Card right now, but I wouldn't be surprised if they miss the playoffs or even finish third in the AFC South.

Damn Rob everyone has question marks but you always make ours out to be bigger than others.

I would think if Manning was in bad shape we would have kept another QB but just Sorgi. Nice to go by rumors though. Your own QB has been rumored to be in bad shape but that does not affect your prediction to have them win the SB. And you guys have glaring questions as well, we all do.

First of all we do not have 3 rookies on the line. We have one, at center. The other two have been here.

Sanders and Freeney have looked fine to me and have been practicing hard. Harrison has not missed any time since TC started and he is just the icing on the cake on our offense if he is solid. Harrison, Wayne, Clark, Gonzalez. Pretty good weapons.

Our defense is solid. Our lbs? Whats wrong with them? Hagler started 7 games last year and we are replacing him with Clint Session for now who played great at times last year.


I remember people predicting doom and gloom for us last year based on a bunch of offseason losses on both sides of the ball.

The Jags? lol. I have them finishing third in the division. Why? Del Rio for starters. My God this guy NEVER has a winning record in the division. Teams will now have tape on Garrard and the guy has to prove he can throw over 10 yards to me. On offense besides the running backs nobody scares you. On defense is the pass rush going to be better or not? Jags have injuries as well at WR, on the o line etc. We all have injuries. And all this hype this offseason I think is going to go to their heads, they are never the most mature team.

I could say the same for the Pats for a down year but I don't believe it. An improving division around you, Brady's foot, your o line struggles, a secondary loaded with question marks etc.

I think both the Pats and Colts will have good years. Will it end in a SB? Who the hell knows at this time.

 

[ICSB]

Forget his stupid Patriots prediction, what the hell is with all the love for the Jaguars? I don't get it. They match up incredibly poorly with the Patriots and the Colts, they don't have a reliable outside threat on offense, and their pass defense is still as suspect as it has been for the past 5 years or so. That team has topped out, even with an easy schedule. No way do they get the top seed or make the Superbowl, let alone win it. Maybe, MAYBE, they could get by the Pats or the Colts, but not both.

lol I 100% agree with you.

However I kinda like everyone picking them again but man the love for them this offseason has reached new heights.:singing:

I can understand picking the Chargers or Pats though.

I know the Colts have some injury concerns but I just want to win the games, even if by 1 point. I don't care if we peak in the next few weeks either. Normally we peak too soon anyway.

 

[Rob0729]

Damn Rob everyone has question marks but you always make ours out to be bigger than others.

I would think if Manning was in bad shape we would have kept another QB but just Sorgi. Nice to go by rumors though. Your own QB has been rumored to be in bad shape but that does not affect your prediction to have them win the SB. And you guys have glaring questions as well, we all do.

First of all we do not have 3 rookies on the line. We have one, at center. The other two have been here.

Sanders and Freeney have looked fine to me and have been practicing hard. Harrison has not missed any time since TC started and he is just the icing on the cake on our offense if he is solid. Harrison, Wayne, Clark, Gonzalez. Pretty good weapons.

Our defense is solid. Our lbs? Whats wrong with them? Hagler started 7 games last year and we are replacing him with Clint Session for now who played great at times last year.


I remember people predicting doom and gloom for us last year based on a bunch of offseason losses on both sides of the ball.

The Jags? lol. I have them finishing third in the division. Why? Del Rio for starters. My God this guy NEVER has a winning record in the division. Teams will now have tape on Garrard and the guy has to prove he can throw over 10 yards to me. On offense besides the running backs nobody scares you. On defense is the pass rush going to be better or not? Jags have injuries as well at WR, on the o line etc. We all have injuries. And all this hype this offseason I think is going to go to their heads, they are never the most mature team.

I could say the same for the Pats for a down year but I don't believe it. An improving division around you, Brady's foot, your o line struggles, a secondary loaded with question marks etc.

The Colts aren't the only team with question marks, but they have more than they have had probably in the Manning era and clearly have the most out of the elite AFC teams from last year.

Freeney is so fine that Dungy has already said that they are only going to use him situationally. Besides, a lisc franc injury can take away his speed. I will believe he is 100% what he was before his injury when I see it myself.

I see you didn't address the o-line which is probably the Colts' biggest question mark and concern. Three rookie starters.

As for Manning, there could be a case of over optimism on the Colts side about Manning. They seem to do that with their stars because both Harrison and Sanders have been day to day in the past with minor injuries that sidelined them for three months a piece.

As for the Jags, they did go 11-5 last year. I think 11-5 is enough to win the division. I have already said in another thread that I have the Colts going 10-6 which is only three games less than what they did last year and they look to have a harder schedule this year than last. I am not predicting a major drop off. Heck, I have the Pats going three or four less games than they did last year and they should have an easier schedule.

I don't get why you are so thin skinned on this and come out of the woodwork whenever I post this. I think 10-6 is very realistic for the Colts especially if the rookies on the o-line struggle. I wouldn't be shocked if the Colts did significantly better, but they seem to have at least one potential major hole that could derail their entire offense in the interior o-line.

 

[ICSB]

The Colts aren't the only team with question marks, but they have more than they have had probably in the Manning era and clearly have the most out of the elite AFC teams from last year.

Maybe but I think we had plenty last year with a new LT, two new starting corners, a new starting LB over Cato June, Booger dropping in training camp and replacing him with a rookie, Stokely leaving, Rhodes leaving etc. In terms of injuries is what I know you mean however we always seem to have them and usually make due. Like I said hopefully question marks are answered soon enough.We have pretty good depth this year and had little roster turnover unlike years past.I would argue SD has heavy question marks as well. Does not matter though, soon we will all see for ourselves as the season goes on.

Freeney is so fine that Dungy has already said that they are only going to use him situationally. Besides, a lisc franc injury can take away his speed. I will believe he is 100% what he was before his injury when I see it myself.

That is becuase he was/is rusty.But, I suppose things have changed on that part.
Dungy announced yesterday Freeney will be full time.
http://blogs.indystar.com/philb/

Remember that talk about the Colts being patient with Freeney? They were going to keep him on a play count and ease him in? Well, forget about it. Dungy said today Freeney is starting at right end, Josh Thomas is backing him up, Raheem Brock is starting at left end with Robert Mathis coming in on pass-rush situations and bumping Brock inside to tackle.

I see you didn't address the o-line which is probably the Colts' biggest question mark and concern. Three rookie starters.

Actually I did several times to you in the past already and already mentioned the o line in my other post. We have ONE rookie starter not THREE. Charlie Johnson at RG is not a rookie and was supposed to probably win the job anyway and compete with a rookie. He has played LT, RT and guard for us the last few years.

The other guy who will be at LG has been here too as a backup. I agree the center situation should be interesting. But, I have a ton of faith in Howard Mudd. We did draft 3, we should fine one thats capable to be the new longterm replacement for Saturday. Saturday is not going to have surgery btw and will be back eventually this year. I am looking forward to seeing how a new center plays with our team soon. Should be interesting like I said, hopefully in a good way.

As for Manning, there could be a case of over optimism on the Colts side about Manning. They seem to do that with their stars because both Harrison and Sanders have been day to day in the past with minor injuries that sidelined them for three months a piece.

Yes Harrison and Sanders were day to day, week to week. However, Manning is not and never has been. He had the procedure done and the Colts said he would be back in 4 to 6 weeks. And guess what? he was back in 6 weeks. And he has not missed any time since then and reports are he looks fine and we only kept two active QBs. I know he might have some rust but thats expected. I don't think we will be lighting up any teams early on but I hope we do.

There is a huge difference between when a player gets hurt and has an exact timetable vs. being up in the air.

Hell even Kravitz who is always too honest and goes against us often says Manning looked great last week.
http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080829/SPORTS15/808290417/1058/SPORTS03


That being said I would prefer we did not have so many injury issues the last season or so and could just be damn healthy for a change. I know we have some concerns, but, this is football and not ballet. Should be a good season, we will see who is right later one. People try too hard to make predictions and especially bold ones this time of year. I tend to stick to safer picks and avoid the offseason hype and rumors.

 

[Rob0729]

Maybe but I think we had plenty last year with a new LT, two new starting corners, a new starting LB over Cato June, Booger dropping in training camp and replacing him with a rookie, Stokely leaving, Rhodes leaving etc. In terms of injuries is what I know you mean however we always seem to have them and usually make due. Like I said hopefully question marks are answered soon enough.We have pretty good depth this year and had little roster turnover unlike years past.I would argue SD has heavy question marks as well. Does not matter though, soon we will all see for ourselves as the season goes on.



That is becuase he was/is rusty.But, I suppose things have changed on that part.
Dungy announced yesterday Freeney will be full time.
http://blogs.indystar.com/philb/





Actually I did several times to you in the past already and already mentioned the o line in my other post. We have ONE rookie starter not THREE. Charlie Johnson at RG is not a rookie and was supposed to probably win the job anyway and compete with a rookie. He has played LT, RT and guard for us the last few years.

The other guy who will be at LG has been here too as a backup. I agree the center situation should be interesting. But, I have a ton of faith in Howard Mudd. We did draft 3, we should fine one thats capable to be the new longterm replacement for Saturday. Saturday is not going to have surgery btw and will be back eventually this year. I am looking forward to seeing how a new center plays with our team soon. Should be interesting like I said, hopefully in a good way.



Yes Harrison and Sanders were day to day, week to week. However, Manning is not and never has been. He had the procedure done and the Colts said he would be back in 4 to 6 weeks. And guess what? he was back in 6 weeks. And he has not missed any time since then and reports are he looks fine and we only kept two active QBs. I know he might have some rust but thats expected. I don't think we will be lighting up any teams early on but I hope we do.

There is a huge difference between when a player gets hurt and has an exact timetable vs. being up in the air.

Hell even Kravitz who is always too honest and goes against us often says Manning looked great last week.
http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080829/SPORTS15/808290417/1058/SPORTS03


That being said I would prefer we did not have so many injury issues the last season or so and could just be damn healthy for a change. but, this is football and not ballet. Should be a good season, we will see who is right later one. People try too hard to make predictions and especially bold ones this time of year. I tend to stick to safer picks and avoid the offseason hype and rumors.

I guess we will have to wait and see. I will stick by my prediction of 10-6 and a Wild Card berth for the Colts. I am not the only one who is predicting them to be in second place in the division and I haven't done it in about a half a decade. I just see too many red flags to make me think they are going to be one of the elite teams this year. They will be a good team, a playoff team. I just don't see them being in the 2-3 top teams in the AFC.

If I am wrong, it wouldn't be the first time. As I always say, predictions are like arses, everyone has one and most of them stink.

 

[SamusAranX]

Although I may not agree with him fully, he states his opinion well. Rather than make a blanket statement, he goes into the reasons why he is concerned.

 

[ICSB]

I guess we will have to wait and see. I will stick by my prediction of 10-6 and a Wild Card berth for the Colts. I am not the only one who is predicting them to be in second place in the division and I haven't done it in about a half a decade. I just see too many red flags to make me think they are going to be one of the elite teams this year. They will be a good team, a playoff team. I just don't see them being in the 2-3 top teams in the AFC.

If I am wrong, it wouldn't be the first time. As I always say, predictions are like arses, everyone has one and most of them stink.

Thats cool Rob.And to be honest I just want to be in the playoffs and hopefully healthy.
We will know soon enough.I like to discuss this stuff with fans of opposing teams at times so basically I appreciate your opinions and different views from what I see on Colts forums. I will leave you alone now though with your predictions when you state them. (or will try)

I have read so many predictions this offseason my head is spinning. Let's start the season already.

 

[SamusAranX]

Forget his stupid Patriots prediction, what the hell is with all the love for the Jaguars? I don't get it. They match up incredibly poorly with the Patriots and the Colts, they don't have a reliable outside threat on offense, and their pass defense is still as suspect as it has been for the past 5 years or so. That team has topped out, even with an easy schedule. No way do they get the top seed or make the Superbowl, let alone win it. Maybe, MAYBE, they could get by the Pats or the Colts, but not both.

I think that is a bit harsh. The Jags don't up well with the Colts or Jags if we go by last season, but I wouldn't call it poor. The Jaguars have a run game that can dominate TOP and keep Brady/Manning off the field.

The reasons that make a matchup less friendly (pass rush, secondary) were addressed considerably in the offseason. That is why it will be a wait and see if the Jaguars will match up better with the Patriots and Colts this season.

 

[SamusAranX]

Damn Rob everyone has question marks but you always make ours out to be bigger than others.

I would think if Manning was in bad shape we would have kept another QB but just Sorgi. Nice to go by rumors though. Your own QB has been rumored to be in bad shape but that does not affect your prediction to have them win the SB. And you guys have glaring questions as well, we all do.

First of all we do not have 3 rookies on the line. We have one, at center. The other two have been here.

Sanders and Freeney have looked fine to me and have been practicing hard. Harrison has not missed any time since TC started and he is just the icing on the cake on our offense if he is solid. Harrison, Wayne, Clark, Gonzalez. Pretty good weapons.

Our defense is solid. Our lbs? Whats wrong with them? Hagler started 7 games last year and we are replacing him with Clint Session for now who played great at times last year.


I remember people predicting doom and gloom for us last year based on a bunch of offseason losses on both sides of the ball.

The Jags? lol. I have them finishing third in the division. Why? Del Rio for starters. My God this guy NEVER has a winning record in the division. Teams will now have tape on Garrard and the guy has to prove he can throw over 10 yards to me. On offense besides the running backs nobody scares you. On defense is the pass rush going to be better or not? Jags have injuries as well at WR, on the o line etc. We all have injuries. And all this hype this offseason I think is going to go to their heads, they are never the most mature team.

I could say the same for the Pats for a down year but I don't believe it. An improving division around you, Brady's foot, your o line struggles, a secondary loaded with question marks etc.

I think both the Pats and Colts will have good years. Will it end in a SB? Who the hell knows at this time.

That's funny, because Peyton had an average of 7.8 yards an attempt and 12.0 yards per completion while David Garrad had 7.7 and 12.1, respectively in comparison.

Garrard also had 9 TDs of 10+ yards.

 

[BionicPatriot]

Who did the Jags bring in to rush the passer? Groves and Harvey, one of which is going to be ineffective completely his rookie year. Garrard is a good game manager, but I don't think the ags can last with the Colts/Pats.

It's obvious what Simmons is doing, I guess he thinks because he was so pesimistic for the Celtics it'll work for the Pats. Either that, or he's clueless when he complains about the OL. The OL sucked because they worked guys in/out. Light is back, therefore this line is minus Neal. Neal's best quality is his pulling ability, not pass protection. IMO, this line was never as good as people hyped it up to be during the season. Hell, I took it as they tried to take some credit away from Brady claiming his OL gave him all day, but whatever.

The secondary doesn't concern me. What concerns me is the front seven. Will seymour ever be disruptive again? Will Thomas and Vrabel stay healthy enough all year to annoy QB's? That's more important than anything. Put it this way. Eeathwind Moreland had a number of games where he survived. Why? Because in 04, the LBs peaked, the front 3 were good, and the pass rush was always there. It's honestly not about the DBs you have, rather the pass rush you have infront of them. If DBs were nearly as important as people think, why did Denver suck so bad on D? Why were the Giants able to shut down a 10x more talented WR group?

Why were the Patriots, absolutely outmatched in the secondary, able to shut down a prolific Colts offense back during the 04 year? It's simple. You keep a QB on his ass, you get in his face, and any half decent DB is going to get the job done.

 

[BionicPatriot]

That's funny, because Peyton had an average of 7.8 yards an attempt and 12.0 yards per completion while David Garrad had 7.7 and 12.1, respectively in comparison.

Garrard also had 9 TDs of 10+ yards.

Stats lie, at least for you.

It's easier to average a higher YPA when Garrard attempts 305 passes and Manning attempts over 500. I'm not saying Garrard sucks, but ESPN swings on the dudes nuts. But you simply cannot compare him to Manning or Brady. It's like comparing a Ford to a luxury car.

 

[SamusAranX]

Stats lie, at least for you.

It's easier to average a higher YPA when Garrard attempts 305 passes and Manning attempts over 500. I'm not saying Garrard sucks, but ESPN swings on the dudes nuts. But you simply cannot compare him to Manning or Brady. It's like comparing a Ford to a luxury car.

My point wasn't try to elevate Garrard above Peyton. Garrard is a QB who plays in a run first offense and of course he won't throw as much or as far as Peyton, but the statement that Garrard can't throw over 10 yards or something akin to it smacks of inadverdant ignorance.

 

[BionicPatriot]

My point wasn't try to elevate Garrard above Peyton. Garrard is a QB who plays in a run first offense and of course he won't throw as much or as far as Peyton, but the statement that Garrard can't throw over 10 yards or something akin to it smacks of inadverdant ignorance.

Of course he can, at least I hope an NFL QB can. That said, I think the general thought here is that he can't hang with Manning or Brady in a shoot out. He's not nearly the QB they are, and he doesn't have close to the weapons. MJD is a beast, but a RB can only do so much for a QB. Maroney and Addai are pretty good too, so even then it's not really comparable.

 

[PATRIOT64]

His concerns to me seem valid - Those who don't like partial negative thoughts are blind homers who believe their team will win every super bowl until Brady and BB retire off into the sunset and nothing can possibly go wrong until they do

When you are relying on several unproven raw rookies on defense to contribute in a very positive way to help the team win then concerns about this team prior to the first game are not unrealistic but only to those who wear thick red,blue and silver glasses.

This team will rely on contributions from rookies more than any other Pats team in the BB era and thats the fact,jack

 

[Lansdowne]

His concerns to me seem valid - Those who don't like partial negative thoughts are blind homers who believe their team will win every super bowl until Brady and BB retire off into the sunset and nothing can possibly go wrong until they do

When you are relying on several unproven raw rookies on defense to contribute in a very positive way to help the team win then concerns about this team prior to the first game are not unrealistic but only to those who wear thick red,blue and silver glasses.

This team will rely on contributions from rookies more than any other Pats team in the BB era and thats the fact,jack

2003 SB championship squad says hello...

Dan Koppen, Eugene Wilson, Bethel Johnson, Ty Warren, Asante Samuel, and to a lesser extent...Dan Klecko and Tully Banta-Cain.

I do agree that Simmons' concerns are legit, but he's also somewhat of a chicken little, evidenced by his flip flopping during the Celtics' run.

 

[Richter]

I think that is a bit harsh. The Jags don't up well with the Colts or Jags if we go by last season, but I wouldn't call it poor. The Jaguars have a run game that can dominate TOP and keep Brady/Manning off the field.

The reasons that make a matchup less friendly (pass rush, secondary) were addressed considerably in the offseason. That is why it will be a wait and see if the Jaguars will match up better with the Patriots and Colts this season.

The problem with this logic is that without a down-field threat, and this is especially true against the Patriots, teams can pack down into the box and stop the Jaguars from running up and down the field. The Patriots turned this around on the Jaguars multiple times in recent history, exploiting the weakness of the Jaguars secondary to control the ball with a consistent short passing game. The pass rush is negated by such an offense, it's all on the back seven, and I don't see any considerable upgrades yet that would allow the Jaguars to mitigate the damage this type of offense has caused them in the past. I love MJD and especially Fred Taylor, who might be the most underrated runner ever to play in the NFL, but they cannot run against 8 in the box consistently when they're facing a quality opponent like the Patriots. Unless Troy Williamson suddenly has the light go on and starts stretching the field with his speed, or Jerry Porter actually gets healthy and somehow regains his speed (which was never that great to begin with), the Jaguars will have a tough time matching up against the elite teams.

 

[Watson's IQ]

I do agree that Simmons' concerns are legit, but he's also somewhat of a chicken little, evidenced by his flip flopping during the Celtics' run.

You've hit the nail on the head. I think he's also especially sensitive to his biases, and from time to time will be pessimistic about the Boston teams, even if he doesn't totally believe it. He also has the tendency to be a bit reactionary/instant historian, and the 0-4 preseason likely plays in to that.

Still, as someone who is bored at work a lot, I'm glad Simmons is back from his long summer hiatus from column writing.

 

[Amnorix]

Can't say I disagree with a single word of what Simmons is saying. I think we go 12-4 or better, but I'm worried. I didn't see the same fire this preseason. It's not a good sign.

 

[JAYHAWKS34]

Love Simmons.....He is on the level most of the time. His concerns are my concerns. I still think they will be 13-3 at days end....but, you can still bring into questions that he has.

I agreed with this.. until he moved to the West Coast

 

[dhamz]

Dont disagree with his concerns.

I've still never quite understood why everyone loves the guy other than he is from Boston and normally a complete homer.