Bill Simmons: 2008 AFC Predictions

[ctpatsfan77]

I think that is a bit harsh. The Jags don't up well with the Colts or Jags if we go by last season, but I wouldn't call it poor. The Jaguars have a run game that can dominate TOP and keep Brady/Manning off the field.

The reasons that make a matchup less friendly (pass rush, secondary) were addressed considerably in the offseason. That is why it will be a wait and see if the Jaguars will match up better with the Patriots and Colts this season.

The only problem with that is that the Manning-led Colts have never really depended on TOP to win games; they relied on their vertical passing game and PI calls to chew up large swaths of turf. Heck, in 2004 they went 12-4 despite having an average TOP under 29 minutes a game.

 

[SamusAranX]

The problem with this logic is that without a down-field threat, and this is especially true against the Patriots, teams can pack down into the box and stop the Jaguars from running up and down the field. The Patriots turned this around on the Jaguars multiple times in recent history, exploiting the weakness of the Jaguars secondary to control the ball with a consistent short passing game. The pass rush is negated by such an offense, it's all on the back seven, and I don't see any considerable upgrades yet that would allow the Jaguars to mitigate the damage this type of offense has caused them in the past. I love MJD and especially Fred Taylor, who might be the most underrated runner ever to play in the NFL, but they cannot run against 8 in the box consistently when they're facing a quality opponent like the Patriots. Unless Troy Williamson suddenly has the light go on and starts stretching the field with his speed, or Jerry Porter actually gets healthy and somehow regains his speed (which was never that great to begin with), the Jaguars will have a tough time matching up against the elite teams.

Very good points. Again, that is why we'll have to just wait and see. Can the pass rush improve? Because I do think it matters, as the Giants, Eagles, and Ravens proved. I'm confident that if the Jaguars improve their defense this year, we will match up better with the Colts and Patriots.

 

[QuinielaBox]

The defense and the offensive line must improve if the Patriots want another chance at the Super Bowl. I know there was not much effort put into winning pre-season games.

 

[PatsFaninAZ]

Sometimes I think we need a separate forum for posts where some media person says anything perceived as a slight or makes a prediction that doesn't say "Patriots." It seems like griping about it is half the board. We could call it Schlereth-Hodgeville or something. I pretty much share Simmons' concerns. I've been stating it a bit more tersely. 1. On paper, our defense got a little worse. To the extent preseason means anything, it seems to be confirming that. 2. Tom Brady cannot be Tom Brady without an o-line. Ours has question marks in my mind.

So, I'm with Simmons. But not on the prediction part. I think making playoff result predictions before week 1 is silly. Regular season records or division titlists and wild cards? Sure. But the season is one of peaks and valleys, as I think last year (and many other years) have demonstrated over and over.

The harsh reality is that the Patriots peaked early and were hanging on through the end. They almost made it. An 1140 minute season was 2 minutes too long. The Giants peaked late. If they'd played the super bowl in week 7, we'd have won going away. Unfortunately, they play it in week 21.

I'm not worried about peaking early this year. If anything, the opposite. Nobody can know for sure which teams will peak late. I'm optimistic it will be us, though. There are reasons to suspect it will. I see the mission of the regular season as getting one of the 2 byes. That would, given the tougness of our conference, be an amazing accomplishment and doable. But if I could take, right now, staying healthy, qualifying for the playoffs, and hosting the first round at least, I think this Patriots team has all the ingredients to be the team that peaks late, and that's ok by me.

 

[Richter]

Very good points. Again, that is why we'll have to just wait and see. Can the pass rush improve? Because I do think it matters, as the Giants, Eagles, and Ravens proved. I'm confident that if the Jaguars improve their defense this year, we will match up better with the Colts and Patriots.

The difference is with the Eagles, Giants and Ravens, they all have corners who are capable in press coverage, and don't miss jams at the line of scrimmage. On top of that, the Eagles and Ravens have rangy safeties that allow their cornerbacks to play closer to the line of scrimmage. Aside from Mathis, the Jaguars don't seem to have anyone capable of that kind of play. Maybe Nelson can pick it up in year 2, which would help a lot, but that would be a big assumption. If the Jaguars can force teams to throw down the field more, then the presumably improved pass rush can make an impact. I'll just need to see them do it to believe it, and until then, I just can't look at them as equals to the Patriots and Colts as a consistent, elite team that can run the table in the playoffs.

 

[Garbanza]

I don't have a problem with anything he wrote. He actually brings up some very valid points and has the same concerns that I do. However, his Cowboys pick is laughable. How that team - albeit, quite talented - can overcome that doofus HC in the playoffs is beyond me. Actually, I can't see it being done.

 

[Rob0729]

The defense and the offensive line must improve if the Patriots want another chance at the Super Bowl. I know there was not much effort put into winning pre-season games.

I still don't get the over concerns about the o-line. 4 of the 5 players are back from the o-line that made Brady the least sacked QB in the league last year eventhough the Pats threw more than most of everyone. I can't see that the loss of Stephen Neal is going to change this o-line from the best pass protection o-line in the league last year to one of the worse.

 

[Kontradiction]

I might be alone here but, somehow, with all the injuries and concerns this year's Colts remind me a lot of the '05 Pats. I don't know. That might sound ******ed to some of you, but that's how I feel.

 

[Rob0729]

I might be alone here but, somehow, with all the injuries and concerns this year's Colts remind me a lot of the '05 Pats. I don't know. That might sound ******ed to some of you, but that's how I feel.

I see them similiar to that. I expect a down year for them. I think they will make the playoff, but just barely and probably will exit quickly.

 

[Richter]

I still don't get the over concerns about the o-line. 4 of the 5 players are back from the o-line that made Brady the least sacked QB in the league last year eventhough the Pats threw more than most of everyone. I can't see that the loss of Stephen Neal is going to change this o-line from the best pass protection o-line in the league last year to one of the worse.

Refer to my assertion that one game, played on a national stage, has more of an impact in the minds of the media and the masses than a long string of statistical and visual evidence. And the bigger the game, the bigger the impact. So doing something great or awful in the big game gets you branded, and the bigger picture goes out the window.

 

[Sicilian]

I might be alone here but, somehow, with all the injuries and concerns this year's Colts remind me a lot of the '05 Pats. I don't know. That might sound ******ed to some of you, but that's how I feel.

I can see that actually. So the question is, who is to the Colts what the Broncos are to the Patriots? A team that is usually beneath them in the standings, but always seems to have their number?

 

[Disco Volante]

Who exactly are you telling to shut the **** up?

What a loony, lol.

Neither the person posting a Bill Simmons article or Bill Simmons himself should "shut the **** up."