Rob0729

Ummm... How many of these guys are playing LEFT TACKLE? Many of these guys are playing other positions. Guys like John Tait, Jordan Gross, Shawn Andrews, Tra Thomas have made their names at other positions other than LT.

If you are looking for a guy to play LT in the first round, you are most likely going to be out of luck. You specifically said LT and first round LTs are usually busts or disapointments. The odds say you will not find Light's immediate or future replacement in the first round.

At least you proved my point, that over the last decade the first round hasn't produced many above average to great LTs. We might get a great RT or guard, but you don't want a great RT or guard with the seventh pick in the draft.

Deus Irae

Your initial point was the following:

The list I produced showed me that you were wrong in my estimation. There haven't been all that many first round busts at the tackle position since the Pace draft. Drafting a top rated LT has led to above average to excellent tackles quite often, whether or not they ended up on the left side. The team has its biggest needs at linebacker, possibly CB, and nowhere else. Given the team's history of seeking experienced linebackers for starters and drafting LB's low in the hopes of coaching them up, a first round pick for an LB would seem a stretch. This trend becomes even more noteworthy to me when I see that NFL.com lists only 5 ILB's drafted in the first round this decade. That leaves CB, which is another area of need, but one that this team seems to survive without taking at the top of the draft.

I'm not sold on the current pair of right tackles. Drafting the best LT prospect available and moving him to the right side will allow him to work into the position while Light still mans the fort. When Light begins his decline, the switch can be made. If the player doesn't develop into a quality Left Tackle kind of player, you'll likely still have a quality RT. While my preference was for Oher to come out this season and be placed under Dante's tutelage, this seems to be a pretty good year for top quality tackles, and New England chooses 7th in the first round and then waits for most of the first and second rounds to pass before getting another pick. I'll take the LT in the first round and a CB in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

For the record, the TOTAL number of tackles drafted in the top 10 since the Pace draft is only 9:

Joe Thomas
Levi Brown
D'Brickashaw Ferguson
Robert Gallery
Jordan Gross
Mike Williams
Bryant McKinnie
Levi Jones
Chris Samuels

Arguing that there haven't been a lot of great ones taken when there's only been 9 taken overall, and 3 were in the past 2 seasons, is a bit of a straw man argument. The truly 'elite' left tackles of recent years have, after all, been top picks: Pace, Jones, Thomas, Boselli, Roaf, etc... The question becomes whether or not a player like a Jake Long/Ryan Clady/etc... merits first round status. If so, New England no longer has a pick at the end of the round to use.

__________________
"The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane."
- Marcus Aurelius

blackglass3

Sorry man, I am just a lowly USAF server admin. I am not trying to take over for Dean Pees...just throwing out a suggestion.

Rob0729

Sorry, but I asked to name quality LTs. There aren't many. Even guys who ended up playing other positions on the list you originally listed, only a hadful lived up to first round potential. Just playing in the league for a number of years or even starting does not mean you weren't a first round disapointment. Stephen Neal has been a starting guard for us for the last five or six years. He isn't a first round quality player.

IMHO, I don't believe you waste a high first round draft pick on a RT who may get moved to LT in 3-4 years. You can get a RT in later rounds. I agree we need to upgrade the RT position, but certainly not in the first round with the 7th pick in the draft. We have four picks in the first three rounds, I wouldn't mind if we use one of those picks on a tackle.

I still maintain my point that there are more busts and disapointments at tackle than any other position in the first round other than QB. You have every right to disagree with me, but I don't want us to use the 7th pick to replace Nick Kazcur for the short term. I want a guy who is going to contend for rookie of the year and be a Pro Bowler by the time you want this tackle to transition to LT.

Deus Irae

1.) You made 3 points, one of which I believe was clearly wrong, another was likely completely wrong, and the third which had no real relevance since, naturally, I don't want the team to take a player at #7 who's not talent-worthy of being a high pick. The operating assumption is, of course, that one of the highly rated tackles is believed by Belioli to be worth the hype.

2.) rather than continue down the "bust" alley anymore, let me put this another way:

Barring an "Orlando Pace" level of player, there's no room for a starter at the following positions:

QB
RB
WR
DL
OLB

One could argue the following:
TE (Now, Belioli has shown a fondness for the TE position in the past, but this wouldn't seem to be a great year for taking one in the first round.)
S (it would be a tough argument to make, but I'll concede it for discussion)

ILB is an area that simply doesn't get drafted in the first round anymore, so I'm not even going down that road at #7. The same applies to any potential FB issues. So, again... that leaves realistic room for a starter at:

CB
OL

In other words, if you're looking for a ROY candidate to be on the Patriots, you're looking for a tackle, guard or a cornerback. Any other position is coming off the bench.

__________________
"The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane."
- Marcus Aurelius

Rob0729

I think you are just as wrong as you think I am. There has been no franchise LT to come out of the draft since Pace and Jones in the first round. Most of the tackles taken in the first round have not lived up to expectations even if they were not outright busts.

Second, I think we can get a potential ROY candidate and immediate starter on the Pats any of the following positions:
- CB
- Safety - I'd like to get Harrison's replacement sooner rather than later and actually use Harrison more sparingly next year since he has been a liability in coverage at times. Also neither Sanders or Meriweather have shown enough to say if there is a stud FS safety out there that we don't go after him at that spot
- ILB - Remember David Harris had a great year playing ILB in the Pats' style of defense. If he started the entire year, he probably would have be a strong contender for DROY.
-OLB - It will be tough to pass on Gholston if he is available. If Chris Long somehow falls to 7, the Pats would be crazy to pass on him (but that is very unlikely that he would fall that far)
- WR - No guarantee Moss, Stallworth, or Gaffney are back. Even if we get Moss back, we may need another starter to compliment him since we use a lot of 3-4 WR sets.

As for ILBs getting drafted in the first round, Patrick Willis was drafted 11th overall in the draft and won DROY. I don't know how that position is related to FB. It isn't as popular a pick as some other, but that position has been taken in the top 10 several times in the recent years.

As I already stated, OLB is a posibilty in my mind since Gholston is potentially on the board when we pick. Both Colvin and Vrabel are on the wrong side of 30. So is AD too. Colvin is coming off a season ending injury and carries an over $7 million cap hit. We may want to replace him or do a three man rotation outside like we did in 2004 with Vrabel, McGinest, and Colvin. If we drafted Gholston, Vrabel and AD could move inside on a lot of downs.

Wotan_the_Wanderer

No, I don't think it's time to rebuild at all, but it's always time to add some pieces as departures and upgrades (or as you mentioned an injection of youth at a couple spots) necessitate during the offseason.

IOW, one failed all out blitz from a SB win never means a team should enter rebuild mode.

Deus Irae

First you are confusing "franchise" with "Hall of Fame". Thomas clearly had a franchise type of rookie season, just to point out the obvious first example that springs to mind.

Second, the list I put down pretty clearly shows your "expectations" argument to be wrong, unless you're going to claim that "expectations" are that every first rounder becomes a pro bowl player.


- Gholston isn't getting the position over Thomas, Vrabel or Colvin this year, certainly not early enough in the season to compete for any ROY title, barring injuries.
- Harris makes a lot of tackles well past where they should have been made, and had no shot at ROY even playing for a team desperate for a player in the middle.
- The starting safeties will be 2 of the Meriweather/Harrison/Sanders trio, whether the team drafts a safety or not. Wilson started right away out of necessity, not because New England planned it from day one.
- The team is not going to draft a WR at #7, will be bringing back Moss, Welker and, almost certainly, at least one of the Gaffney/Stallworth duo. There won't be a starting job available for a WR; any wide receiver drafted will be competing for time with Jackson.

Go look at the number of ILBs who've even been drafted in the first round since 2000 and you'll understand my point about that (Willis is the only one this decade, and he was taken at 11). As for middle linebackers, since 2000, only 5 have been chosen in the first round, and only Urlacher (#9) was a top 10 pick (all data was pulled from NFL.com so, if you don't like the classifications, it's not my fault).


Nothing Belioli does is likely to shock me, short of drafting a QB at #7, but I don't see your points happening, and the fascination people here have with the notion that the NE linebackers are too old is really quite bizarre. Vrabel was clearly one of the best linebackers in the league last season, and Colvin and Thomas are younger than he is. It's really an argument about one position (the Bruschi/Seau position at ILB) that's been expanded to the entire corps for no real reason. BB is not likely to play a rookie over the #1 free agent signing of last season, the team's best linebacker, or Colvin, who's arguably the team's best pass rusher and is a very solid all around linebacker when healthy.

__________________
"The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane."
- Marcus Aurelius

Rob0729

Funny, I consider a franchise LT someone you can build a line around. There has arguably been two. I mentioned Thomas already as potentially on. Samuels is the only other one.

Last time I checked, a first round pick is supposed to do more than stick around with a team for a number of years and be a mediocre starter. Yeah, guys like Kenyatta Walker and Kwame Harris have played for a number of year, but they still suck. Joey Harrington is still playing in the league and even started for a decent size portion of the last two years. Does that mean he wasn't a bust?


How do you know that? Do you know for sure that Colvin will be back next year or at 100%? Do you know if Bruschi or Seau will be back? Maybe they will move Vrabel inside.

DROY is all about stats and Harris' stats would have rivaled Patrick Willis if he played all year Of course he would have been a contender for the title.

I can't say I saw many 49ers games, but how many of Patrick Willis' 174 tackles (which was 47 more tackles than Harris eventhough he started 7 more games) were well past where they should have been? Considering the team Willis played on, I bet a lot.

Harris did have more sacks than Willis (5 vs. 4). They had the same number of forced fumbles in 2. Willis was definitely better, but I don't know if it is worlds better.

Harris was 8th in the league in tackles eventhough only starting 9 games. Vilma wasn't putting up that type of production.

I wouldn't bet on it if the Pats draft a safety at seven. What does Wilson have to do with anything. I do doubt that any rookie would start right away no matter what position since Belichick doesn't hand over rookie jobs, but like Seymour he could win the job pretty quickly.

It is very doubtful that Stallworth will be back unless we can't get Moss to come back. Stallworth wants to be the guy. Gaffney was the fourth WR for most of the year, if the Pats draft a WR at #7 there is no reason why he wouldn't be the 4th WR again.



How many FBs have been drafted in the first round? It is weak argument in my opinion trying to draw a distinction between ILB and MLB. Of course there are very few ILBs if you want to draw the distinction of an ILB vs. MLB. How many schools actually employ the 3-4 at the college level? Of course there wouldn't be many 3-4 ILBs taken in the draft in the first round.




The Patriots LBs are old. Colvin is coming off a season ending injury and we have no idea what shape he is in and he has a tenuous cap situation. We aren't even sure the guy will be on the team. Odds are very good he will be, but if he can't run at 100% he will be far less effective since he relies on his speed.

The Pats prefer to be able to have three OLBs that they can rotate. Because of depth they couldn't do it this past season, but they did do it very liberally in 2004 and McGinest had one of his better year eventhough his playing time was limited. Even 2002, the Pats did it with Vrabel, Colvin, and TBC until Seau got injured and TBC was forced to start. If the Pats drafted Gholston, he could still have the potential to have a DROY type of season even if he isn't the official starter.

I'm sorry, but my take is taking a RT at the #7 spot or even trading down into the teens and taking a RT is a mistake. Even if you expect him to take Light's spot one day. We have won Super Bowls with with guys like Brandon Gorin, Tom Ashworth, and Greg Robinson-Randall manning the right side of the line. RT isn't important enough of a position to use a high first round pick. If we had an immediate upgrade at LT, then I would agree with you.

Deus Irae

You seemingly expect every player drafted to be a pro bowler, just because there's a first round tag on him. That's not how the NFL works. Since that's your baseline for your expectations, there's no point continuing this, because we'll never agree on it. However, let me refer you to an espn article by Ted Kluck:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2...5&sportCat=nfl

__________________
"The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane."
- Marcus Aurelius