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Another reason the Pats-Colts match-up this week is so fascinating is the fact that it’s a rematch of a huge game that was played so recently, but there have been so many changes, particularly on the Pats’ side, that it’s been hard to find analysis that isn’t based on outdated perceptions. So, I thought I’d take a look at last year’s game, and how the teams have changed since then.
One thing that jumps out when you look at the stats from the AFC title game was just how badly the Pats were outplayed according to the stat sheet. The Colts had 32 first downs to the Pats’ 17; they outgained the Pats 455 yards to 319, with edges in net rushing and passing 125-93 and 330-226, respectively. The Pats did not score an offensive touchdown over the last 40 minutes of the game, managing just a pair of field goals during that time.
In fact, the Pats only averaged 24 ppg throughout last season. How dramatically the offense has been transformed has been well-covered, but it’s worth looking at again: the Pats’ leap from 24 ppg to 41.4 is really remarkable.
The Pats’ defense, meanwhile, has managed to stay on par with the ppg level of last year, when opponents managed 14.8 against the Pats, compared to 15.9 this year. This is one example where the numbers really don’t tell the story, though. The Pats’ defense has naturally lost its intensity at times this year, as the team has been up 30-40 points per game. With the addition of Thomas, Harrison being back and healthy, and a secondary that is (knock wood) so far managing to stay on the field, I don’t think anyone would argue that this year’s defensive squad isn’t markedly better than last year’s.
The Colts, meanwhile, have continued to score points this year on par with years past, including 2006 (their average ppg is actually up about five points). At this point, the Colts’ offense is a known quantity—unlike the Pats’ offensive package, which has an entirely new arsenal for the Colts to digest, the Pats’ players and coaches know the Colts personnel quite well. As always, the key is stopping them, but again, the Pats’ defense right now is quite simply a different one than last January.
As far as the Colts’ defense goes, they’ve improved from last year overall, shaving nearly a TD per game off their average. Keep in mind, though, that improving on last year’s regular season defense isn’t hard to do. A better measuring stick is the post-season, when a healthy Bob Sanders made—and continues to make—a big difference for the entire squad. But again, this is the defense the Pats saw in January, while the Pats’ defense, like the offense, has several different, and improved, pieces.
So how does this break down? It is, as everyone knows, a game between the two best teams in the league, far away. And that includes the Colts’ defense, which, shockingly, might be the best the Patriots see. But we’re talking about an offense that is shattering records, so the points will come. Will they come for the Colts? There certainly won’t be any letdown for this game from the Pats’ defense. No, I think we’ll see Manning walking off the field with that look quite a few times, tugging off his chin strap.
The motivation of the Pats this year is well-documented, and in many ways it’s been building to this game. After the bye week of course, it’ll build to something else, something bigger. But this is obviously IT for now. The game might be close, and it might be safer to think that way, but I just don’t see it.
My prediction is that the Patriots take it going away, 40-17.
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Boy, I really have no idea what will be the end result.
I feel that the main difference between these two extremely talented and well coached teams is flexibility.
The colts are coached and taught a system that is very productive, and effective. They put teams on their heals very quickly. The total plan is leathal. That offence punches the oposition in the face over and over, and the D is very quick to pounce on any and all weakness, or trepidation. In a word, they attack on both sides of the ball. The colts seem to be flexible at the point of attack with their qb. Manning is very capable of reading the d, and changing the play. He is quick, and smart. They are a little banged up, but they will still be able to press the oposition because of Manning.
Again, they are flexible because of Manning. If the pats D is able to take certain things away, then the onus is on Payton, and he has proven in the past to be able to shoulder that weight.
The pats are flexible in that they game plan each week for the oposition. (as has been noted before, the colts are more about just being real good at their system.) This game planning has provided the pats with countless wins in the past even though they had inferior talent. This being the case, it seems that the Patriots could actually bring more pressure against Manning than he has ever felt before. By pressure I mean the over all squeeze. The pats are working very well as a total unit right now. The game planning has gotten to a stage where the total package is coming into focus. The offense scores so often, and the D is starting to realize that the oposition will have no recourse but to throw it up. Asante is definetely realizing this.
So for me, it seems to be about where the flexibility resides. Is it at the single point, (the qb) or is there a total package that is designed to bring out the weekness of the oposition?
Another reason the Pats-Colts match-up this week is so fascinating is the fact that it’s a rematch of a huge game that was played so recently, but there have been so many changes, particularly on the Pats’ side, that it’s been hard to find analysis that isn’t based on outdated perceptions. So, I thought I’d take a look at last year’s game, and how the teams have changed since then.
One thing that jumps out when you look at the stats from the AFC title game was just how badly the Pats were outplayed according to the stat sheet. The Colts had 32 first downs to the Pats’ 17; they outgained the Pats 455 yards to 319, with edges in net rushing and passing 125-93 and 330-226, respectively. The Pats did not score an offensive touchdown over the last 40 minutes of the game, managing just a pair of field goals during that time.
In fact, the Pats only averaged 24 ppg throughout last season. How dramatically the offense has been transformed has been well-covered, but it’s worth looking at again: the Pats’ leap from 24 ppg to 41.4 is really remarkable.
The Pats’ defense, meanwhile, has managed to stay on par with the ppg level of last year, when opponents managed 14.8 against the Pats, compared to 15.9 this year. This is one example where the numbers really don’t tell the story, though. The Pats’ defense has naturally lost its intensity at times this year, as the team has been up 30-40 points per game. With the addition of Thomas, Harrison being back and healthy, and a secondary that is (knock wood) so far managing to stay on the field, I don’t think anyone would argue that this year’s defensive squad isn’t markedly better than last year’s.
The Colts, meanwhile, have continued to score points this year on par with years past, including 2006 (their average ppg is actually up about five points). At this point, the Colts’ offense is a known quantity—unlike the Pats’ offensive package, which has an entirely new arsenal for the Colts to digest, the Pats’ players and coaches know the Colts personnel quite well. As always, the key is stopping them, but again, the Pats’ defense right now is quite simply a different one than last January.
As far as the Colts’ defense goes, they’ve improved from last year overall, shaving nearly a TD per game off their average. Keep in mind, though, that improving on last year’s regular season defense isn’t hard to do. A better measuring stick is the post-season, when a healthy Bob Sanders made—and continues to make—a big difference for the entire squad. But again, this is the defense the Pats saw in January, while the Pats’ defense, like the offense, has several different, and improved, pieces.
So how does this break down? It is, as everyone knows, a game between the two best teams in the league, far away. And that includes the Colts’ defense, which, shockingly, might be the best the Patriots see. But we’re talking about an offense that is shattering records, so the points will come. Will they come for the Colts? There certainly won’t be any letdown for this game from the Pats’ defense. No, I think we’ll see Manning walking off the field with that look quite a few times, tugging off his chin strap.
The motivation of the Pats this year is well-documented, and in many ways it’s been building to this game. After the bye week of course, it’ll build to something else, something bigger. But this is obviously IT for now. The game might be close, and it might be safer to think that way, but I just don’t see it.
My prediction is that the Patriots take it going away, 40-17.
I think Peter King said this and I totally agree: If we lose to the Colts this week, we are still capable of beating them in Indy in the playoffs. If we win this week, the Colts will not be able to beat us in Foxboro in the playoffs.
I think Peter King said this and I totally agree: If we lose to the Colts this week, we are still capable of beating them in Indy in the playoffs. If we win this week, the Colts will not be able to beat us in Foxboro in the playoffs.
This is going to be the longest week ever.
If Colts win, does not lock up HFA. If Pats win, lock it up.
Anything can happen in either venue in the Playoffs.
IT IS ON: How I See the Pats/Colts
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