stevedogc

forgive me if I am asking a question that gets asked every year around the playoffs, but I have been looking at the AFC leaders and seeing how much of a chance the Pats may have at the #2 spot. I looked up the tiebreakers and am not clear on the procedures. Here is what I have found.

Two Clubs
Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.

Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format).

Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule

First of all, this claims that the tiebreaker is for temas within a division. What if we are trying to determine a tie breaker for teams who are not in the same division. Such as the Pats/Cincy/SD all going for the #2 spot. Are these the same rules for that as well?

Also, if these rules do apply, is #2 (won-loss in division) not counted since the teams are in different divisions.

For #3, won-loss in common games, does that include games played against division rivals. For example, looking up the Pats and SD common teams, they both play Balt. and Tenn. once. However, counting division games, the Pats play the Jets twice and SD plays them once while SD plays Denver twice while the Pats play them once. In all, there are 5 games of common opponents, but not all the games are equal due to division opponents. Do they use the record from these 5 games, or do they leave out the division games since they play each more then the others?

pats1

No, there is a separate set of rules for wild card teams that also apply to non-division seeding:

NFL tiebreaking procedures - NFL - ESPN

This was discussed at length a week ago:

Tie breaker

Essentially, if the Pats, Bengals, and Chargers are all tied at the end of the season, this is the tiebreaker:

Patspsycho

Assuming the season ends with the Pats/Bengals/Chargers tied. What would the seeding be?

mayoclinic

Interesting read from CNNSI today predicting the playoff seeds and suggesting that the Pats would likely be the #2 seed in the AFC if they win out:

NFL playoff projections, scenarios for Week 13 - Dom Bonvissuto - SI.com

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aluminum seats

SD & Cincy have some tough games--Pats just need to take care of business. Remember, Chargers are still coached by Norv Turner, and the Bengals.....well, you know, they're the Bengals.

On another note, I see the thread rating bandit is on the loose again....

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jmt57

It's impossible to say right now because it all depends on what those teams records are the rest of the way, who they lose to if they lose, and possibly even final scores in those remaining games. But if the season ended today the Bengals would get a bye, San Diego would be #3 and host #6 Jacksonville, and the Pats would be #4 playing Denver in Foxboro. Both Pittsburgh and Baltimore would miss the playoffs.


By the way, in addition to the links above CBS sports has an excellent section on tiebreakers, scenarios, and a very good playoff/tiebreakers question and answer forum: NFL 2009 Playoff Race - CBSSports.com

stevedogc

Thanks. Wish I saw the other post from last week. Would have answered my question. Looks like if the Pats win out, they do have a decent chance at the #2 spot.

Denver is playing @ Indy and @ Philly. I cant see them winning both, so if the Pats win out, they have a better record then the Bronco's.

SD and Cincy play each other, so if the Pats win out, they will be tied with at least one of them. And considering SD plays @ Tenn and @ Dallas and Cincy plays @ Minn, there is a good chance both teams lose at least 1 game the rest of the season. If all three teams finish at 12-4, the Pats beat out SD on the 3rd tie breaker, common opponents. The best SD could do is a 9-3 conference record, which would equal the Pats.

The Pats would be 4-1 against Mia (2x), Denv, Balt and Tenn. The best SD can do is finish 3-2 in like game with wins against Denv and Miami and losses against Balt and Denv. With a game against Tenn still on deck.

It looks like Cincy could be more confusing with the tiebreakers. If the Pats and Cincy are both 12-4 ,and if Cincy beats the Jets and SD both teams wil have a 3-2 common opponents record and a 9-3 conference record.

Its confusing, but I still think the Pats have a decent chance at the #2. My best case scenario is for the Pats to win out at 12-4. Have Cincy lose @ SD and @ Minn. Both good possibilities. That puts the Pats ahead of Cincy. Then have SD lose to either @ Tenn or @ Dallas. Either one put the Pats ahead of them with an equal record, equal conference record (unless they lose to Tenn.) and the Pats having a better common opponents record.

I hope I got this all correct. There is alot to digest.

jmt57

Bengals-Chargers game will obviously have a big impact on playoff seedings. I'll be curious to see how Cincinnati does as more and more eyes are on them.

Ha, I didn't notice that till you said that. Funny, everything was getting one star yesterday, and today everything is getting five stars.

Pats726

See if I get this straight...IF the Pats win out...12-4...Cinci and SD are tied at 12-4..and BOTH lose one game..but against an AFC team....the Pats would get it because of conference record as their 4th loss was against an NFC team. Is that true??
I could see that happening..but if Cinci loses to Minn and beats SD..then Cinci and NE would be tied conference wise as well. So that would be common games?? Or is it back to strength of victory??

stevedogc

Its goes:
1. Head to head games
2. Conference record
3. common games.
4. Strength of victory

Most straight forward way for the Pats to get the #2 spot.
1. Pats win out rest of games. Finish 12-4
2. Cincy losses @ SD or @ NYJ
3. SD losses any of the remaining games (if they lose to Cincy, then we would need Cincy to lose 1 other game)

This would put all three teams at 12-4. Pats would have the same conference record against SD, but have a better common opponent record. Pats would have a better conference record then Cincy.

Week 13, both SD and Cincy have creampuffs facing Det and Clev. Week 14 SD plays @ Dallas and Cincy play @ Minn. Week 15 Cincy plays at SD. Weeks 14 & 15 will mean alot.