Tag Archives: Week 6

NFL Week 6 Odds, Predictions and Picks against the spread

John Morgan
October 15, 2017 at 6:00 am ET

NFL Week 6 kicked off with an oddity. Lo and behold, we had a quality Thursday night game between a pair of teams with winning (both 4-1) records. Philadelphia went on the road and defeated Carolina in Charlotte 28-23. Carson Wentz overcame a slow start and threw three touchdowns – and more importantly, no interceptions. The Eagle defensive front seven won the line of scrimmage against the Carolina offensive line. Cam Newton had thrown for 671 yards and six touchdowns over his last two games, but the Philly defense harassed him all night. With a 5-1 record and possessing an impressive road victory, the Eagles are a legitimate candidate to represent the NFC in Super Bowl 52. Meanwhile, one high strung idiot has given Panther fans an embarrassing reputation.

 

★★★★★ — Game of the Week

3-2 Pittsburgh Steelers at 5-0 Kansas City Chiefs
4:25 pm ET on CBS; Jim Nantz, Tony Romo
Broadcast in all markets except Arizona, California, Nevada and southern Oregon.
Chiefs favored by 4; over/under 47; Money Line KC -205, Pitt +175

Right now Alex Smith is the NFL MVP for 2017. The previously maligned quarterback is leading the league in completion percentage, yards per pass attempt and passer rating. The additions of Tyreek Hill in 2016 and rookie Kareem Hunt this year certainly help as well. The Pittsburgh defensive front seven is nothing special and won’t be able to handle that duo. Whispers about the demise of 35 year old Ben Roethlisberger (6 TD, 7 INT) will gain momentum this week in Iron City.

Prediction: Chiefs 27, Steelers 20
Chiefs -4

 

★★★★ — Good Games

3-2 New England Patriots at 3-2 New York Jets
1:00 pm ET on CBS; Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts
Broadcast in all markets except those airing the Browns-Texans and Dolphins-Falcons games. Also not broadcast in DC, Baltimore, Minneapolis and New Orleans due to NFL blackout rules.
Patriots favored by 9½; over/under 47½; Money Line NWE -475, NYJ +375

The Jets have thrived when they don’t have to rely on Josh McCown and the league’s worst group of receivers. On the other hand the Patriot pass defense has been suspect, to put it mildly. On top of that the Pats will be without starting corners Stephon Gilmore (concussion) and Eric Rowe (groin). It will be interesting to see what Matt Patricia game plans Sunday. Nickel situations would presumably call for safety Duron Harmon. After Malcolm Butler and Jonathan Jones the only other corner is Johnson Bademosi, who has yet to play a defensive snap this season.

Prediction: Patriots 27, Jets 24
Jets +9½

 

4-1 Green Bay Packers at 3-2 Minnesota Vikings
1:00 pm ET on Fox; Thom Brennaman, Troy Aikman
Broadcast in most of the US; see the five other games on Fox for exceptions.
Packers favored by 3; over/under 45; Money Line GB -175, Min +155

This would be a great game if the two teams were at full strength, but that is not the case. QB Case Keenum has filled in admirably for Sam Bradford, but the Vikes could really use Dalvin Cook against this Green Bay defense. WR Adam Thielen has played well, but with Stefon Diggs out the Packer defense can double team him all day.

Prediction: Packers 31, Vikings 21
Packers -3 (two units)

 

3-2 Los Angeles Rams at 3-2 Jacksonville Jaguars
4:05 pm ET on Fox; Dick Stockton, Mark Schlereth
Broadcast in Boston, southern California, Jacksonville, Houston, Miami, New York City, Ohio (except Cincinnati) and West Palm Beach.
Jaguars favored by 2½; over/under 42½; Money Line Jax -145, Rams +125

Here we are in mid-October, and both the Rams and Jags have winning records. Jacksonville is a complete enigma. They rank first in both sacks and interceptions, second in passes defensed, third in passing yards allowed, and sixth in quarterback hits. The Jaguars looked unbeatable in wins over the Texans, Ravens and Steelers. Problem is that each victory was followed by a poor game (Titans, Jets). Following that pattern the Jags are due for another dud. Rams QB Jared Goff has made remarkable progress in his second season, and doesn’t make the mistakes that Blake Bortles does. Jacksonville is playing at home and with a better defense though, and finally wins consecutive games.

Prediction: Jaguars 24, Rams 17
Jaguars -2½</span

 

★★★ — Decent Games

3-2 Detroit Lions at 2-2 New Orleans Saints
1:00 pm ET on Fox; Dan Hellie, Chris Spielman
Broadcast in Louisiana, Michigan and Mississippi.
Saints favored by 5; over/under 50; Money Line NOR -215, Det +185

QB Matthew Stafford is dealing with a bum ankle, which is good news for Saints DE Cameron Jordan. Detroit will attempt to get RB Ameer Abdullah rolling against a New Orleans defense that is allowing 4.5 yards per carry. The Lions will also miss be without DT Haloti Ngata for the rest of the season, which certainly does not help when facing Drew Brees.

Prediction: Saints 27, Lions 24
Lions +5

 

1-4 Los Angeles Chargers at 2-3 Oakland Raiders
4:25 pm ET on CBS; Kevin Harlan, Rich Gannon
Broadcast in Arizona, California, Nevada and southern Oregon.
Raiders favored by 3; over/under 50½; Money Line Oak -175, LAC +155

Derek Carr may be less than 100%, but that’s still great news for the Raiders. EJ Manuel’s passes were late and slow, leaving Oakland receivers in peril last week. The LAC run defense is non existent, allowing 5.0 yards per carry and a league worst 161 yards per game. In 2016 the Chargers lost too many winnable games, so they changed head coaches. Nothing has changed so far this year. The Bolts were fortunate to finally win a game they tried to give away last week, escaping with a narrow victory against the depleted Giants. Sunday they return to their standard format of losing a close game. Note: the line has dropped from 5½-6 points on Friday to 3-3½ point on Saturday. I liked the Chargers when the number was at that high point, but at just three I would go with the Raiders.

Prediction: Raiders 28, Chargers 24
Raiders -3

 

2-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 2-3 Arizona Cardinals
4:05 pm ET on Fox; Kenny Albert, Charles Davis
Broadcast in Arizona, Atlanta and Florida (except Jacksonville, Miami and West Palm Beach).
Bucs favored by 1½; over/under 45½; Money Line Bucs -125, Ariz +105

Adrian Peterson talked his way out of New Orleans, where he was a bad fit. While he is an upgrade over Chris Johnson, Arizona still has no running game due to their porous offensive line. The Cardinals best bet is to just use him as a decoy on play action passes. Just throw the ball to whomever is being covered by Buccaneer CB Vernon Hargreaves, who gives the opposition a 12 yard cushion yet still manages to get beat deep. Cardinal CB Patrick Peterson versus Buc WR Mike Evans makes this game watchable. If Tampa Bay can make some field goals for a change they could win this game.

Prediction: Cardinals 23, Buccaneers 20
Cardinals +1½

 

★★ — Meh Games

0-5 Cleveland Browns at 2-3 Houston Texans
1:00 pm ET on CBS; Andrew Catalon, James Lofton
Broadcast in Ohio, eastern Kentucky, Tennessee (except Memphis), Texas, Jacksonville and Shreveport.
Texans favored by 9; over/under 47; Money Line Hou -450, Cle +350

The Texans are now without both JJ Watt and Whitney Mercilus. There is still Jadeveon Clowney, but Joe Thomas should be able to neutralize his production. Houston QB DeShaun Watson has been outstanding, and should be able to beat Cleveland LB Jamie Collins when he decides to run. Despite the losses of defensive playmakers, I’ll take the team with Watson at quarterback over the one with Kevin Hogan.

Prediction: Texans 31, Browns 21
Texans -9

 

2-2 Miami Dolphins at 3-1 Atlanta Falcons
1:00 pm ET on CBS; Greg Gumbel, Trent Green
Broadcast in most of the southeast: North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana (except Shreveport and New Orleans) and Florida (except Jacksonville).
Falcons favored by 13; over/under 45½; Money Line Atl -900, Mia +600

Atlanta was aided by questionable officiating in a pair of early season victories; now they are helped out by their schedule. Injuries are never a good thing, but their bye last week came at the best possible time. The Falcons should get WR Julio Jones and OLB Vic Beasley back for Sunday’s game, though WR Mohammed Sanu is out. Regardless of who suits up, it is difficult to envision a scenario where Miami wins. The Dolphins are averaging an NFL-worst 10.3 points per game; how can they keep pace with the Falcons? On top of that the Fins are dealing with the aftermath of a scandal involving a coach, and are on the verge of a quarterback controversy.

Prediction: Falcons 27, Dolphins 10
Falcons -13

 

1-4 Chicago Bears at 3-2 Baltimore Ravens
1:00 pm ET on Fox; Sam Rosen, Ronde Barber
Broadcast in Illinois, Indiana, Maryland and western Pennsylvania.
Ravens favored by 6½; over/under 39½; Money Line Bal -300, Chi +250

Another week, another pushover for the Ravens. Baltimore has victories over Cincinnati (before the Bengals fired their OC), Cleveland and Oakland (with EJ Manuel at QB). In their two other games the Ravens were outscored 70-16. Baltimore will be in first place in the AFC North on Sunday night, but it’s a façade. Perhaps Jordan Richard can run the ball effectively to keep the game close. Chicago rookie QB Mitch Trubisky has no receivers who can catch the ball.

Prediction: Ravens 24, Bears 17
Ravens -6½

 

0-5 San Francisco 49ers at 2-2 Washington Redskins
1:00 pm ET on Fox; Chris Myers, Daryl Johnston
Broadcast in northern California, DC, North Carolina, eastern Pennsylvania, Virginia and Reno NV.
Redskins favored by 11; over/under 46½; Money Line Wash -600, SF +450

In my opinion three consecutive road games should be abolished in the NFL. It simply puts to much of a burden on that team’s ability to prepare, and inevitably results in a sloppy game. Here we are with SF, an already talented-deficient team, having to overcome that obstacle against a rested club. The Washington defense has performed better than anticipated this year, while the Niners are managing to score just 17.8 points per game (25th). Throw in possible dissension over the release of Navorro Bowman, and we have the recipe for an ugly blowout. The Niners have been competitive; each of their last four games has been decided by a field goal or less. Consecutive overtime losses have to be incredibly frustrating though.

Prediction: Redskins 31, Niners 13
Redskins -11

 

0-5 New York Giants at 3-1 Denver Broncos
8:30 pm ET Sunday on NBC; Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth
Broncos favored by 12; over/under 39; Money Line Den -700, NYG +500

Let’s see, the Giants can’t stop the run or the pass. They are down four receivers. Their offensive line stinks. In the span of five weeks they have gone from a supposed Super Bowl contender to a team planning on the 2018 draft. Now they have to travel 1800 miles and play 5280 feet above sea level. Against a well rested team that ranks first in the NFL in defense (261 yards per game).

Considering what a hypocrite Giant owner John Mara is, I shed no tears. The puppet master pulling Roger Goodell’s strings for his own betterment thought he was all set when he had the commissioner suspend Ezekiel Elliot. Watching his team fail so miserably should bring a smile to every football fan’s face.

Prediction: Broncos 34, Giants 10
Broncos -12 (two units)

 

— Bottom of the Barrel

2-3 Indianapolis Colts at 2-3 Tennessee Titans
8:30 pm ET Monday on espn; Sean McDonough, Jon Gruden
No lines at this point in time due to uncertainty on status of Marcus Mariota.

If Mariota plays: Titans 24, Colts 20
If Cassel plays: Colts 24, Titans 17

 

Teaser (three units):
Broncos -6
Redskins -5

 

NFL Week 6 Odds, Announcers & TV Broadcast Distribution

John Morgan
October 14, 2017 at 6:00 am ET

In a network decision nobody anticipated before the 2017 NFL season began, a Sunday afternoon Jets game will be broadcast to most of the nation. Three games dominate the NFL Week 6 afternoon broadcast distribution. Most of the nation will be fed the following games Sunday afternoon. In the early time slot CBS will air the New England Patriots at New York Jets for the lead in the AFC East. Pittsburgh at Kansas City will follow as the marquee game on CBS in the late afternoon. Fox has the single game this week, with Green Bay at Minnesota being broadcast by the majority of their affiliates. The prime time games are nothing to stay up for this week. The winless Giants are at Denver on Sunday night in what should be a blowout. Week 6 wraps up with the Colts at Tennessee on Monday night.

Odds listed are as of Friday the 13th. Lines have already changed during the week, and are many are likely to do so again before kickoff.

 

Early Games on CBS

0-5 Cleveland Browns at 2-3 Houston Texans
1:00 pm ET on CBS; Andrew Catalon, James Lofton
Broadcast in Ohio, eastern Kentucky, Tennessee (except Memphis), Texas, Jacksonville and Shreveport.
Texans favored by 9½; over/under 46½; Money Line Hou -475, Cle +375

3-2 New England Patriots at 3-2 New York Jets
1:00 pm ET on CBS; Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts
Broadcast in all markets except those airing the Browns-Texans and Dolphins-Falcons games. Also not broadcast in DC, Baltimore, Minneapolis and New Orleans due to NFL blackout rules.
Patriots favored by 9½; over/under 47½; Money Line NWE -475, NYJ +375

2-2 Miami Dolphins at 3-1 Atlanta Falcons
1:00 pm ET on CBS; Greg Gumbel, Trent Green
Broadcast in most of the southeast: North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana (except Shreveport and New Orleans) and Florida (except Jacksonville).
Falcons favored by 12½; over/under 46½; Money Line Atl -850, Mia +575

 

Early Fox Games

3-2 Detroit Lions at 2-2 New Orleans Saints
1:00 pm ET on Fox; Dan Hellie, Chris Spielman
Broadcast in Louisiana, Michigan and Mississippi.
Saints favored by 4; over/under 50; Money Line NOR -210, Det +180

4-1 Green Bay Packers at 3-2 Minnesota Vikings
1:00 pm ET on Fox; Thom Brennaman, Troy Aikman
Broadcast in most of the US; see the five other games on Fox for exceptions.
Packers favored by 3; over/under 46; Money Line GB -175, Min +155

1-4 Chicago Bears at 3-2 Baltimore Ravens
1:00 pm ET on Fox; Sam Rosen, Ronde Barber
Broadcast in Illinois, Indiana, Maryland and western Pennsylvania.
Ravens favored by 6½; over/under 39½; Money Line Bal -300, Chi +250

0-5 San Francisco 49ers at 2-2 Washington Redskins
1:00 pm ET on Fox; Chris Myers, Daryl Johnston
Broadcast in northern California, DC, North Carolina, eastern Pennsylvania, Virginia and Reno NV.
Redskins favored by 11; over/under 46½; Money Line Wash -600, SF +450

 

Late Games on Fox

3-2 Los Angeles Rams at 3-2 Jacksonville Jaguars
4:05 pm ET on Fox; Dick Stockton, Mark Schlereth
Broadcast in Boston, southern California, Jacksonville, Houston, Miami, New York City, Ohio (except Cincinnati) and West Palm Beach.
Jaguars favored by 2½; over/under 42½; Money Line Jax -145, Rams +125

2-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 2-3 Arizona Cardinals
4:05 pm ET on Fox; Kenny Albert, Charles Davis
Broadcast in Arizona, Atlanta and Florida (except Jacksonville, Miami and West Palm Beach).
Bucs favored by 1½; over/under 45½; Money Line Bucs -125, Ariz +105

 

Late Games on CBS

3-2 Pittsburgh Steelers at 5-0 Kansas City Chiefs
4:25 pm ET on CBS; Jim Nantz, Tony Romo
Broadcast in all markets except Arizona, California, Nevada and southern Oregon.
Chiefs favored by 4½; over/under 47; Money Line KC -215, Pitt +185

1-4 Los Angeles Chargers at 2-3 Oakland Raiders
4:25 pm ET on CBS; Kevin Harlan, Rich Gannon
Broadcast in Arizona, California, Nevada and southern Oregon.
Raiders favored by 5½; over/under 51½; Money Line Oak -250, LAC +210

 

Prime Time Games

0-5 New York Giants at 3-1 Denver Broncos
8:30 pm ET Sunday on NBC; Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth
Broncos favored by 12; over/under 39; Money Line Den -700, NYG +500

2-3 Indianapolis Colts at 2-3 Tennessee Titans
8:30 pm ET Monday on espn; Sean McDonough, Jon Gruden
No lines at this point in time.

Thursday Night: Philadelphia Eagles 28 (at) Carolina Panthers 23
Panthers: -3, -150
Eagles: +3, +130
over/under: 44

 

The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of the publisher of this website. Neither the author nor this website promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

 

NFL Week 6 Early Advanced ‘Look-Ahead’ Betting Lines: Pats favored by 9.5 at Jets

John Morgan
October 7, 2017 at 9:30 pm ET

The Westgate Las Vegas Superbook has published their latest NFL Advanced Betting Lines. These early odds are posted prior to the following week’s games, including the Thursday Night Football game. Also known as Look-Ahead lines, they give the adventurous sports fan an opportunity to wager on games up to twelve days away. If you are in Vegas and have a good feeling about a matchup further down the road, the Westgate offers an opportunity to get a jump on odds that could be less favorable after Sunday’s games.

The two Super Bowl LI contestants are the biggest initial Week 6 favorites. Atlanta is a 9½ point home favorite, and New England is favored by the same amount on the road. The Falcons face a Miami team that has scored a mere six points in their last two games and are averaging just 8.3 points per game on the season. The defending Super Bowl champions travel to New Jersey to take on their arch rivals for the biannual encounter. The Jets have ruined management tanking plans and could enter on a three game winning streak should they defeat the Browns on Sunday.

Next week’s marquee game kicks off in the late afternoon slot on CBS. The 4-0 Kansas City Chiefs travel to Pittsburgh to face the 3-1 Steelers at Heinz Field. The Chiefs are averaging 30.5 points per game while Pittsburgh is allowing only 14.8 ppg; both numbers rank second best in the NFL. Aside from potential playoff implications, this should be a great game for all football fans to watch.

NFL Week 6 Early Odds

Thursday Oct 12 at 8:30 pm ET on CBS
Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers (-3)

Sunday Oct 15 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS
Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons (-9½)
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans (-8½)
New England Patriots (-9½) at New York Jets

Sunday Oct 15 at 1:00 pm ET on Fox
Chicago Bears at Baltimore Ravens (-6)
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (off)
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-3)
San Francisco Forty Niners at Washington Redskins (-7)

Sunday Oct 15 late afternoon games
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals (-2½), 4:00 pm ET on Fox
Los Angeles Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars (pick), 4:00 pm ET on Fox
Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland Raiders (off), 4:30 pm ET on CBS
Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2½), 4:30 pm ET on CBS

Prime Time Games, 8:30 pm ET
New York Giants at Denver Broncos (-6), Sunday October 9 on NBC
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (off), Monday October 10 on espn

Bye Week
Buffalo Bills
Cincinnati Bengals
Dallas Cowboys
Seattle Seahawks

 

TB Times: Pats Bite Bengals

John Morgan
October 16, 2016 at 6:00 pm ET

Welcome back to Gillette Stadium TB12

Patriots 35, Bengals 17

Playing in his first game in Foxboro since Roger Goodell abused his Article 46 powers, Tom Brady completed 29 out of 35 passes for 376 yards as the New England Patriots defeated the Cincinnati Bengals 35-17. Brady threw three touchdown passes and went over 5,000 pass completions in his illustrious career. TB12 led the Patriots to scoring drives on each of their final four possessions. He finished the day with a 140.0 passer rating, completing 83% of his passes with no turnovers.

The Bengals came out of the second half with an 80-yard touchdown drive to take the lead 14-10. Cincy forced a punt after just four plays and things were looking good for the visitors. The tide quickly turned as Trey Flowers stuffed Jeremy Hill for no gain and then Cedric Ogbuehi was called for holding after being beat by Rob Ninkovich. That penalty negated what would have been a 15-yard completion to AJ Green for a first down, and backed Cincinnati up to the 8-yard line.

On the next play Dont’a Hightower sacked Andy Dalton in the end zone for a safety and close the score to 14-12. That was the turning point of the game, as New England dominated the rest of the way. The Patriots scored on each of their next four possessions while the defense held Cincinnati to two punts and a field goal. Hightower was a beast all game. At one point he looked as if he would be unable to continue after being hit by a teammate on a tackle. On the very next play the defensive captain was in on a crucial sack.

Marvin Lewis was unable to come up with a game plan to slow down Rob Gronkowski. In spite of dealing with a flu this week Gronk had his way with the Cincinnati defenders, catching seven of the nine passes thrown his way for 162 yards – an incredible 23.1 yards per catch – and a touchdown. Gronk simply ran past Pro Bowl linebacker Vontaze Burfict, and over corner Adam Jones.

The officiating was inconsistent with questionable decisions (perhaps make-up calls) on both teams. We’ll save that for another day and savor this victory for now. Tomorrow it is on to Pittsburgh.

NFL Week 6 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

John Morgan
at 8:15 am ET

After an impressive 33-13 victory at Cleveland, the Patriots return to Foxboro to face the Cincinnati Bengals. Gillette Stadium will be rocking for the 2016 home debut of Tom Brady after his four game Article 46 exile. With clear skies and only a slight breeze perhaps the wine and cheese crowd might even remain in their red seats and brave the 67° forecasted temperature to view TB12 live, rather than retreating to the Putnam Club lounge.

The game kicks off at 1:00 pm eastern time with fairly extensive nationwide coverage by CBS. Ian Eagle will handle the play-by-play duties, with Dan Fouts adding in the commentary. Why these two are considered by CBS to be the number two broadcast team while the Greg Gumbel-Trent Green duo is third is baffling.

In the late time slot there are two interesting NFC contests. Green Bay hosts a much improved Dallas team seeking its fifth straight win. The Packers need a win to stay close to undefeated Minnesota in the NFC North. At the same time the Falcons take their Space Invaders Offense to the CLink against Seattle. Atlanta owns the best offense in the NFL while the Seahawks rank third, averaging just 13.5 points allowed per game. To see what is being broadcast where you live, check out Pats fan JP Kirby’s NFL Maps.

 

New England Patriots Game of the Week

 

★★★★★ 2-3 Cincinnati Bengals at 4-1 New England Patriots
Sunday, October 16 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts and Evan Washburn
Patriots -7½ . . . . over/under 47½ . . . . NWE -360, CIN +300

Any defense with Geno Atkins, Vontaze Burfict, Domato Peko, Carlos Dunlap and Michael Johnson – complimented with AJ Green at wide receiver – cannot be taken lightly. More disconcerting to me is that teams tend to rebound after a poor performance, and Cincy looked awful last week. Even though the Bengals are a desperate team on the ropes, the Patriots should win this game easily. Considering the stinker against Buffalo is still fresh in their memory, there is no reason for the Patriots to be looking ahead to next week’s game at Pittsburgh.

Once again an Ohio team is in the wrong place at the wrong time. The scorched earth tour continues.

Prediction: Patriots 31, Bengals 17
Patriots -7½ (one unit) . . . . . over 47½ . . . . . New England -360

Final Score: Patriots 35, Bengals 17 ✓
Patriots -7½ . . . . over 47½ ✓ . . . . Patriots -360 ✓

 

NFL Week 6 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

 

★★ 3-2 Baltimore Ravens at 2-3 New York Giants
Sunday, October 16 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Greg Gumbel, Trent Green and Jamie Erdahl
Giants -3½ . . . . over/under 44½ . . . . NYG -175, BAL +155

I am not buying the ‘Ravens could be 5-0’ line after losing two close games. Baltimore’s three wins were against bad teams, while the Giants had to go on the road to play Minnesota and Green Bay. The Giants should dominate the Baltimore offensive line, but New York’s 29th ranked minus-7 turnover differential is disconcerting.

Prediction: Giants 23, Ravens 21
Ravens +3½ . . . . . under 44½ . . . . . Baltimore +155

Final Score: Giants 27, Ravens 23 ✓
Ravens +3½ x . . . . under 44½ x . . . . Ravens +155 x

 

★★★★ 1-3 Carolina Panthers at 1-3 New Orleans Saints
Sunday, October 16 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Sam Rosen, Daryl Johnston and Laura Okmin
Panthers -3 . . . . over/under 53½ . . . . CAR -150, NOR +130

This is a big game for the two NFC South rivals. Neither team has lived up to preseason expectations and one of these two clubs will drop to 1-4. While the Super Bowl hangover is a real thing for teams that have less time to rest and rehabilitate their bodies after playing until February, it seems unfathomable that the Panthers are on the precipice of tumbling from 15-1 to 1-5. The New Orleans running game has improved, taking some pressure off of Drew Brees to do it all. Even so I will take Cam Newton’s return to give Carolina enough of a lift to overcome a raucous partisan N’awlins dome crowd.

Prediction: Panthers 31, Saints 27
Panthers -3 . . . . . over 53½ . . . . . Carolina -150

Final Score: Saints 41, Panthers 38 x
Panthers -3 x . . . . over 53½ ✓ . . . . Panthers -150 x

 

★★★ 4-1 Pittsburgh Steelers at 1-4 Miami Dolphins
Sunday, October 16 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Spero Dedes and Solomon Wilcots
Steelers -7 . . . . over/under 49 . . . . PIT -330, MIA +270

Miami’s off-season game plan was to shore up their defensive front line, but that investment has yet to show any dividends. The Dolphins are giving up an incredible league-worst 151 rushing yards per game. The offensive line is equally chaotic, with three o-linemen just released even though there were no apparent improvements available. Normally I would consider this to be a trap game for Pittsburgh with the Patriots on the schedule next week. That is not going to be the case after the 34-3 loss to the Eagles in their most recent road game.

Prediction: Steelers 31, Dolphins 13
Steelers -7 (two units) . . . . . under 49 . . . . . Pittsburgh -330

Final Score: Dolphins 30, Steelers 15 x
Steelers -7 xx . . . . under 49 ✓ . . . . Steelers -330 x

 

★★ 1-3 Jacksonville Jaguars at 1-4 Chicago Bears
Sunday, October 16 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Andrew Catalon and Steve Tasker and Steve Beuerlein
Bears -1½ . . . . over/under 45½ . . . . CHI -125, JAC +105

Make no mistake, the Bears are not good. That being said, the Chicago offense is improving. Jordan Howard is averaging 5.8 yards per carry and has compiled 295 yards from scrimmage in the last two games since assuming his role as the starting running back. On the other hand the Bear defense may be just what the doctor ordered for Blake Bortles and the Jaguars for back-to-back victories.

Prediction: Jaguars 27, Bears 24
Jaguars +1½ . . . . over 45½ . . . . Jacksonville +105

Final Score: Jaguars 17, Bears 16 ✓
Jaguars +1½ ✓ . . . . over 45½ x . . . . Jaguars +105 ✓

 

★★ 1-4 San Francisco 49ers at 3-2 Buffalo Bills
Sunday, October 16 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Dick Stockton, Chris Spielman and Kristina Pink
Bills -8½ . . . . over/under 44½ . . . . BUF -360, SFO +300

Blaine Gabbert has been awful at quarterback, and Colin Kaepernick is a better fit in Chip Kelly’s offense. Buffalo’s defense is improved over last year, particularly on third down and in the red zone. San Francisco’s defense is in shambles, allowing an average of 35 points over the last four games. If the Niners were incapable of slowing down David Johnson at home, how can they be expected to slow down LeSean McCoy on the road?

Prediction: Bills 34, Niners 17
Bills -8½ (one unit) . . . . over 44½ . . . . Buffalo -360

Final Score: Bills 45, Niners 16 ✓
Bills -8½ . . . . over 44½ ✓ . . . . Bills -360 ✓

 

★★★ 3-2 Los Angeles Rams at 2-3 Detroit Lions
Sunday, October 16 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Justin Kutcher, Charles Davis and Peter Schrager
Lions -2½ . . . . over/under 44½ . . . . DET -160, LAR +140

Detroit is not the same defense without DE Ziggy Ansah, but the LA offensive line has been ineffective. The Rams depend on RB Todd Gurley, but opponents are selling out to stop the run, resulting in Gurley repeatedly being hit in the backfield prior to having a chance to go anywhere. Jeff Fisher’s annual quest for 7-9 continues as planned.

Prediction: Lions 20, Rams 16
Lions -2½ . . . . under 44½ . . . . Detroit -160

Final Score: Lions 31, Rams 28 ✓
Lions -2½ ✓ . . . . under 44½ x . . . . Lions -160 ✓

 

0-5 Cleveland Browns at 2-3 Tennessee Titans
Sunday, October 16 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Tom McCarthy and Adam Archuleta
Titans -7½ . . . . over/under 43½ . . . . TEN -330, CLE +270

Tennessee won last week’s game at Miami by playing keep away. The Titans rushed for 235 yards and ran 29 more plays (70-41) than the Dolphins, en route more than a 13 minute advantage in time of possession. If the Browns let anything close to that happen then they have no chance. Cleveland does have a much better running game than Miami does, and the Tennessee offense is not built to come from behind to win. Do the Titans know how to handle success? If not, this could be Cleveland’s best chance for a win this season.

Prediction: Titans 23, Browns 17
Browns +7½ (one unit) . . . . under 43½ . . . . Cleveland +270

Final Score: Titans 28, Browns 26 ✓
Browns +7½ . . . . under 43½ x . . . . Browns +270 x

 

★★★★ 3-1 Philadelphia Eagles at 3-2 Washington Redskins
Sunday, October 16 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Kenny Albert, John Lynch and Pam Oliver
Eagles -3½ . . . . over/under 44½ . . . . PHI -150, WAS +130

The reason that Philadelphia has looked so much better than last year is their defense. The Eagles rank second in scoring (12.8 points per game), second in yardage (267 per game) and are eighth at 5.0 yards per play. The Washington defense will surely target RT Halapoulivaati Vaitai. The rookie will be making his first start thanks to the ten-game suspension of Lane Johnson. I’ll take a hot Washington team at home over a Philly club on the road that is cooling off.

Prediction: Redskins 24, Eagles 20
Redskins +3½ (one unit) . . . . over 44½ . . . . Washington +130

Final Score: Redskins 27, Eagles 20 ✓
Redskins +3½ . . . . over 44½ ✓ . . . . Redskins +130 ✓

 

Late NFL Week 6 Games

 

★★★★ 2-2 Kansas City Chiefs at 4-1 Oakland Raiders
Sunday, October 16 at 4:05 pm ET on CBS; Kevin Harlan and Rich Gannon
Chiefs -2½ . . . . over/under 46 . . . . KAN -130, OAK +110

This game started out with Oakland favored by one, but has swung 3½ points the other way. Jamaal Charles is reportedly ready for a full workload, which is bad news for an Oakland defense that has allowed 28 or more points in four out of five games. Raider RB Latavius Murray is out with a toe injury, which means that this game will likely come down to the KC pass defense versus Derek Carr throwing to Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree.

Prediction: Raiders 31, Chiefs 28
Raiders +2½ . . . . over 46 (two units) . . . . Oakland +110

Final Score: Chiefs 26, Raiders 10 x
Raiders +2½ x . . . . over 46 xx . . . . Raiders +110 x

 

★★★★★ 4-1 Atlanta Falcons at 3-1 Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, October 16 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX; Chris Myers, Ronde Barber and Jennifer Hale
Seahawks -6½ . . . . over/under 45½ . . . . SEA -260, ATL +220

Matt Ryan has been spectacular in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, spreading the ball around and keeping opposing defenses on their heels. Seattle’s defense – and their loud home field advantage – is suited to take advantage of a very average Atlanta offensive line though. The Falcons were able to take advantage of mismatches against Denver with their linebackers unable to keep up with running backs Devonte Freeman and Tevin Coleman. Seattle is solid at the second level with Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright, but that is still a matchup that favors the Falcons. This should be an exciting game and it is unfortunate that so many will not see it. As well as Atlanta has been playing, it is extremely rare for a team to win back-to-back road games against quality opponents.

Prediction: Seahawks 27, Falcons 24
Falcons +6½ (one unit) . . . . over 45½ (one unit) . . . . Seattle -260

Final Score: Seahawks 26, Falcons 24 ✓
Falcons +6½ . . . . over 45½ . . . . Seahawks -260 ✓

 

★★★★ 4-1 Dallas Cowboys at 3-1 Green Bay Packers
Sunday, October 16 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX; Thom Brennaman, Troy Aikman and Erin Andrews
Packers -4½ . . . . over/under 47½ . . . . GNB -220, DAL +180

Jerry Jones quietly ceded some decision making to his son Stephen a few years ago, and it has paid off. Rather than fixate on name stars, Dallas invested early draft picks on their offensive line – and it has paid off. This game will be determined in the trenches even if this isn’t the Ice Bowl. The Cowboys are averaging an NFL-best 155 yards per game rushing, while Green Bay is allowing a league-best 43 yards rushing per game and a minuscule 2.0 yards per carry. Rookie Ezekiel Elliott has lived up to the hype for Dallas. The former Buckeye leads the league in rushing (109 yards per game) and first downs (31), and already has five rushes for 20+ yards and twelve carries for 10+ yards.

Prediction: Packers 20, Cowboys 17
Cowboys +4½ (one unit) . . . . under 47½ . . . . Green Bay -220

Final Score: Cowboys 30, Packers 16 x
Cowboys +4½ . . . . under 47½ ✓ . . . . Packers -220 x

 

★★★ 2-3 Indianapolis Colts at 3-2 Houston Texans
Sunday, October 16 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC; Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth and Michele Tafoya
Texans -3 . . . . over/under 48 . . . . HOU -150, IND +130

On one hand I want Indianapolis to win enough games to just barely miss the playoffs, and at the same time miss out on having an early draft pick. On the other hand it won’t really matter because Ryan Grigson has proven that he cannot build a decent roster. In case you wonder why Grigson succumbed to the temptation to attempt to frame the Patriots, consider his work history. In 2001 Grigson was with the Rams when the Patriots beat them in the Super Bowl. Three years later he was with the Eagles when Philly lost to New England in the big game. Then he is hired by Indianapolis, a franchise that has nightmares for all the would-be glory that dissipated with losses to New England. Nothing like a football Sunday to be capped off with Grigson and Irsay having to suffer another loss by the Colts.

Prediction: Texans 31, Colts 24
Texans -3 (one unit) . . . . over 48 . . . . Houston -150

Final Score: Texans 26, Colts 23 (OT) ✓
Texans -3 push . . . . over 48 ✓ . . . . Texans -150 ✓

 

★★ 1-4 New York Jets at 2-3 Arizona Cardinals
Monday, October 17 at 8:30 pm ET on BSPN; Sean McDonough, Jon Gruden and Lisa Salters
Cardinals -7½ . . . . over/under 46 . . . . ARI -335, NYJ +275

Back-to-back prime time schadenfreude. Gang Green’s superb front line cannot mask their deficiencies in the secondary. Going on the road to face a team that thrives on the vertical passing game is a recipe for more embarrassment, turmoil and finger pointing from the Jet locker room.

Prediction: Cardinals 27, Jets 17
Cardinals -7½ . . . . under 46 . . . . Arizona -335

Final Score: Cardinals 28, Jets 3 ✓
Cardinals -7½ ✓ . . . . under 46 ✓ . . . . Cardinals -335 ✓

 

★★ 4-1 Denver Broncos at 1-4 San Diego Chargers
Thursday October 13 at 8:30 pm ET on NFLN; Jim Nantz, Phil Simms and Tracy Wolfson

Did you notice the absolute lack of poise by San Diego head coach Mike McCoy in the final minute of Thursday’s game? With the outcome on the line after Denver recovered an onside kick McCoy was kneeling on the headline with his eyes closed and head down for an interminable amount of time. What kind of leadership is that? San Diego won in spite of McCoy’s chokefest and complete lack of aplomb. Fortunately for San Diego they were facing a road team on a short week with questions at quarterback.

Prediction: Chargers 20, Broncos 17
Chargers +3½ (one unit). . . . under 45 . . . . San Diego +155

Final Score: Chargers 21, Broncos 13 ✓
Chargers +3½ …. under 45 ✓ …. Chargers +155 ✓

 

3-Team Parlay (one unit): x
Falcons +6½ at Seahawks ✓
Steelers -7½ at Dolphins x
Raiders at Chiefs over 46 x

4-Team 6-Point Teaser (three units): ✓✓✓
Patriots -1½ vs Bengals ✓
Cowboys +10½ at Packers ✓
Falcons +12½ at Seahawks ✓
Bills -2½ vs Rams ✓

 

Tale of the Tape

Week 5 was so-so, with a teaser bailing me out of what would have been a losing week. Best calls were Vikings -6½ at Houston, Titans +3½ at Miami and Falcons +5½ at Denver. As bad as taking the Rams at home against the Bills and Baltimore over Washington, the worst prediction by far was Cincinnati over Dallas. 37-23-1 and plus $2470 is something I will take any time after five weeks.

Week 5 Results:
7-7 Straight Up
7-7 Against the Spread
5-9 Over/Under
2-unit plays: 3-4, -280
1-unit plays: 3-2, +80
3-Game Parlay: 1u, 0-1, -110
3-Game Teaser: 2u, 1-0, +360
22 units invested
7-7, +50 on $2420 risk
2.1% ROI

Year to Date Results:
39-38 Straight Up
42-34-1 Against the Spread
39-38 Over/Under
3-unit plays: 2-5-1, -1080
2-unit plays: 16-7, +1660
1-unit plays: 16-8, +720
Parlays: 1-2, +380
Teasers: 2-1, +790
37-23-1, +2470 on original $2310 risk.
106.9% ROI on original $2310 bankroll.
21.8% ROI on $11,330 (103 units) of total weekly investments.

7-7, +50 on 22 units (+2.1%) in Week 5.
9-2, +1910 on 18 units (+96.5%) in Week 4.
3-9-1, -1280 on 22 units (-58.2%) in Week 3.
9-3, +950 on 20 units (+43.2%) in Week 2.
9-2, +840 on 21 units (+36.4%) in Week 1.

 

The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of the publisher of this website. Neither the author nor this website promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please call 1-888-ADMIT-IT or 1-888-GA-HELPS.

 

Follow on Twitter @AllThingsPats

 

NFL Week 6 Television Coverage: Pats-Bengals on CBS, NFC East on FOX

John Morgan
October 10, 2016 at 1:30 pm ET

The NFL Week 6 game between New England and Cincinnati will be broadcast in either all or parts of 28 states. The Pats-Bengals game will be the most highly distributed game for CBS, who will only broadcast one game next Sunday. The Patriots impressed in their 33-13 victory at Cleveland while the Bengals were ‘outphysicaled by Dallas‘ and were dominated at the line of scrimmage in their 14 point loss to the Cowboys. As a result the betting line has quickly jumped up two full points; the Patriots are now favored by eight.

Ian Eagle will announce the play-by-play, with Dan Fouts providing the commentary. Please don’t shoot the messenger.

Fox owns the doubleheader and not surprisingly will blanket the airwaves with NFC East teams. Philadelphia at Washington receives the most coverage in the early time slot, while Dallas at Green Bay will air in about 90% of all television markets for the late game.

This marks the sixth consecutive week that a Cowboys game will receive nationwide or primary broadcast distribution.

The week kicks off with an interesting game on Thursday, with San Diego hosting Denver. The Broncos are traveling on a short week coming off their first loss, and dealing with injuries and inexperience at quarterback. The Chargers are coming off yet another late heart breaking loss. Do they respond by ratcheting up the intensity against a division rival, or hang their heads and pack it in?

The other prime time games are Indy at Houston on Sunday night and the Jets at Cardinals on Monday. Minnesota and Tampa Bay are off with a bye. Here is a full listing of the NFL Week 6 television coverage, along with early odds for each game courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.

 

NFL Week 6 Television Coverage and Odds

★★★★ 4-1 Denver Broncos at 1-4 San Diego Chargers
Thursday, October 13 at 8:30 pm ET on CBS; Jim Nantz, Phil Simms and Tracy Wolfson
Broncos -3 . . . . over/under 46
Broadcast in all markets.

 

★★★★★ 2-3 Cincinnati Bengals at 4-1 New England Patriots
Sunday, October 16 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts and Evan Washburn
Patriots -8 . . . . over/under 47
Broadcast in New England, Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, southern Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana (except New Orleans), Mississippi, eastern Missouri, Montana, Nevada (Las Vegas), New Mexico, North Dakota (Bismark), Ohio (except Cleveland), Oregon, Texas (except Dallas/north central TX), Utah and Washington.

 

★★★ 3-2 Baltimore Ravens at 2-3 New York Giants
Sunday, October 16 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Greg Gumbel, Trent Green and Jamie Erdahl
Giants -3 . . . . over/under 44½
Broadcast in DC, Maryland, New York (except Buffalo), Oklahoma, Harrisburg PA and Dallas/north central Texas.

 

★★★ 1-3 Carolina Panthers at 1-3 New Orleans Saints
Sunday, October 16 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Sam Rosen, Daryl Johnston and Laura Okmin
Panthers -3 . . . . over/under n/a
Broadcast in Alabama, parts of Florida (Jacksonville, Tallahassee, Tampa), Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee (except Nashville).

 

★★★★ 4-1 Pittsburgh Steelers at 1-4 Miami Dolphins
Sunday, October 16 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Spero Dedes and Solomon Wilcots
Steelers -7 . . . . over/under 48
Broadcast in Florida (except Orlando and Jacksonville), North Carolina (except Charlotte), Pennsylvania (except Harrisburg and Philadelphia), South Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia.

 

★★ 1-3 Jacksonville Jaguars at 1-4 Chicago Bears
Sunday, October 16 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Andrew Catalon and Steve Tasker and Steve Beuerlein
Bears -2 . . . . over/under 47
Broadcast in northern Florida (Jacksonville, Orlando), southern Georgia, northern and central Illinois, Michigan (except Detroit), Minnesota, North Dakota (Fargo) and Wisconsin.

 

★★ 1-4 San Francisco 49ers at 3-2 Buffalo Bills
Sunday, October 16 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Dick Stockton, Chris Spielman and Kristina Pink
Bills -7½ . . . . over/under 44
Broadcast in northern California, New York (except NYC) and Reno NV.

 

★★★ 3-2 Los Angeles Rams at 2-3 Detroit Lions
Sunday, October 16 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Justin Kutcher, Charles Davis and Peter Schrager
Lions -3½ . . . . over/under 43½
Broadcast in Alaska, southern California, Hawaii, Idaho, western Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, eastern Missouri, Montana, Nevada (Las Vegas), Oregon, Washington and Wisconsin.

 

0-5 Cleveland Browns at 2-3 Tennessee Titans
Sunday, October 16 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Tom McCarthy and Adam Archuleta
Titans -6½ . . . . over/under n/l
Broadcast in Cleveland, Tennessee and Tupelo MS.

 

★★★★ 3-1 Philadelphia Eagles at 3-2 Washington Redskins
Sunday, October 16 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Kenny Albert, John Lynch and Pam Oliver
Eagles -1½ . . . . over/under 45
Broadcast in New England, Arkansas, Colorado, DC, parts of Florida (Fort Myers, Orlando, West Palm Beach), Iowa, Kentucky, Indiana, Kansas, Maryland, western Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia and Wyoming.

 

★★★★ 2-2 Kansas City Chiefs at 4-1 Oakland Raiders
Sunday, October 16 at 4:05 pm ET on CBS; Kevin Harlan and Rich Gannon
Raiders -1 . . . . over/under 47
Broadcast in Charlotte, Detroit, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Reno, California, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, southern Oregon and South Dakota.

 

★★★★★ 4-1 Atlanta Falcons at 3-1 Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, October 16 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX; Chris Myers, Ronde Barber and Jennifer Hale
Seahawks -6½ . . . . over/under 45½
Broadcast in Alabama, Georgia, Montana, Oregon, Washington and Anchorage.

 

★★★★ 4-1 Dallas Cowboys at 3-1 Green Bay Packers
Sunday, October 16 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX; Thom Brennaman, Troy Aikman and Erin Andrews
Packers -4½ . . . . over/under 47½
Broadcast in all markets with the exceptions of Alabama, Georgia, Montana, Oregon, Washington, San Francisco and Anchorage.

 

★★★ 2-3 Indianapolis Colts at 3-2 Houston Texans
Sunday, October 16 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC; Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth and Michele Tafoya
Texans -3 . . . . over/under 46
Broadcast in all markets.

 

★★ 1-4 New York Jets at 2-3 Arizona Cardinals
Monday, October 17 at 8:30 pm ET on BSPN; Sean McDonough, Jon Gruden and Lisa Salters
Cardinals -7½ . . . . over/under 47
Broadcast in all markets.

 

NFL Week 6 Early Advanced ‘Look-Ahead’ Betting Lines – Pats favored by 7 vs Bengals

John Morgan
October 5, 2016 at 11:30 pm ET

On Wednesday afternoon the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook released their advanced betting lines, also known as look-ahead lines. These early lines give some clairvoyant risk takers an opportunity to roll the dice on games that will not be played for another week and a half. There are times when public reaction to the most recent game clouds reality, and for a moment one can exploit the odds on an overrated or underrated team – or be done in by an unforeseen injury.

Week six kicks off with what should be a pretty good game on Thursday Night with Denver visiting San Diego. While the Chargers are only 1-3 they have held a 4th quarter lead in every game this season. Last time the Bolts played Denver, in Week 17 of the 2015 season it was the same story. The Chargers led 20-17 in the fourth quarter, but a 23-yard touchdown run by Ronnie Hillman with under five minutes remaining gave Denver their fifth straight victory over San Diego.

The Patriots host Cincinnati and are listed as seven-point favorites. Last week the Bengals handled Miami with ease, though a disconcerting habit of settling for field goals kept the final score relatively close at 22-7. The Bengal defense looked much better with the return of Vontaze Burfict from his suspension for head hunting. If you recall Burfict completely lost his poise at the end of a playoff game in January against the Steelers with a dumb (and vicious) hit on Antonio Brown. The penalty – along with ensuing personal foul penalty on Adam Jones – gifted the Steelers with a game-winning field goal.

Elsewhere in the AFC East Buffalo is a 7-point home favorite versus San Francisco, Miami is a 4½ underdog at home against the Steelers, and on Monday night the Jets are 6½-point dogs at slumping Arizona.

At first glance the best bets appear to be Houston (-3) vs Indy and Pittsburgh (-4½) at Miami.

Here are all of the early advanced betting lines for NFL Week Six. Carolina has no early line due to the uncertainty of Cam Newton. Minnesota and Tampa Bay are off with a bye.

 

NFL Week 6 Early Advanced ‘Look-Ahead’ Betting Lines

 

Thursday October 13:

Denver Broncos (-3) at San Diego Chargers [CBS]

 

Sunday October 16 Early Games:

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (-7) [CBS]

Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants (-3) [CBS]

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (No Line) [Fox]

Pittsburgh Steelers (-4½) at Miami Dolphins [CBS]

Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears -2 [CBS]

San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills -7 [Fox]

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions -3 [Fox]

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans (-5½) [CBS]

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (Pick’em) [Fox]

 

Sunday October 16 Late Games:

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (-1½) [CBS]

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-7) [Fox]

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-6½) [Fox]

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-3½) [NBC]

 

Monday October 17:

New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals (-6½) [BSPN]

 

As for tomorrow night’s game, nothing cures a slump like a game against a bad team such as San Francisco. Even with a backup quarterback the Cardinals still have the better offense. San Francisco has given up an average of 36 points per game over the last three weeks. Drew Stanton won’t have to do much other than hand off to David Johnson (4.7 yards per carry, 128 yards from scrimmage per game).

Prediction: Cardinals 27, Niners 20
Cardinals -3½ (one unit). . . . over 42 . . . . Arizona -170

 

The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of the publisher of this website. Neither the author nor this website promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please call 1-888-ADMIT-IT.

 

Follow on Twitter @AllThingsPats

 

NFL Week 6 Previews, Predictions and Picks against the spread

John Morgan
October 17, 2015 at 9:00 pm ET

Aside from the highly anticipated annihilation of the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday night, there are several quality matchups which should be very competitive during the afternoon preliminaries. In the early afternoon Arizona travels to Pittsburgh looking to avoid a second loss after winning their first four games; that will not be an easy task at Heinz Field against a Steeler offense that boasts of Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell. 5-0 Cincinnati at Buffalo is a another compelling early game, and Denver – with their inconsistency on offense – may not have as easy a game as had been previously thought when they travel to Cleveland. There are also two good late afternoon games: San Diego at Green Bay, and Carolina at Seattle.

In the New England area CBS will broadcast the Bengals-Bills game early, followed by the Chargers-Packers at 4:25 pm; Washington at the Jets will be the single game on FOX early. To see what is being televised in your area, check out the Week 6 NFL Maps at 506 Sports.

 

5-0 Denver Broncos at 2-3 Cleveland Browns; early game on CBS; Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts

Broncos -3½; over/under 42½; Broncos -200, Browns +170

The outcome for this game may hinge on which bad unit is worse. Denver can’t run the ball (31ˢᵗ in the NFL at 3.3 yards per carry) while age and injuries have caught up to Peyton Manning (28ᵗʰ in the NFL with 6.53 yards per pass attempt); the end result is the Broncos are averaging just 4.9 yards per play, 31ᵗʰ in the league – they would be last but the Bears had to put Jimmy Claussen under center for two games.

The wretched Denver offense catches a break though, going up against Cleveland’s pitiful defense. Football Outsiders ranks the Browns’ D 28ᵗʰ overall and dead last against the run, so I suppose something has to give. Cleveland corner Joe Haden is out with a concussion, which should definitely help Manning. Josh McCown is on a hot streak (1,154 yards, 6 TD, 1 INT in last three games), but that was against the Raiders, Chargers and Ravens; Denver’s defense is far superior. The Broncos are allowing only 15.8 points per game (2ⁿᵈ best in the NFL) and have seven interceptions while allowing only three touchdown passes.

The Broncos have had a knack for pulling out victories against inferior opponents even when they played poorly; I’m expecting the Denver defense to come through with some turnovers leading to the same result here.

Prediction: Broncos 27, Browns 20

Pick: Broncos -3½ (one unit); over 42½; Broncos -200

 

5-0 Cincinnati Bengals at 3-2 Buffalo Bills; early game on CBS; Spero Dedes, Solomon Wilcots

Bengals -3; over/under 42½; Bengals -160, Bills +140

Andy Dalton gets a lot of crap for Cincinnati’s failures in the playoffs, but (a) this is still the regular season, and (b) that was in the past; this team looks different now. Dalton is completing 67.5% of his passes, has thrown 11 touchdowns with only two picks, leads the NFL with 9.49 yards per pass attempt, and his 115.6 passer rating is third only behind a couple guys named Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. He’s getting rid of the ball quickly, so that should negate Buffalo’s pressure from Mario Williams and Jerry Hughes from the outside.

Buffalo QB Tyrod Taylor is out with a sprained MCL, so E.J. Manuel will get the start. At running back Karlos Williams is out with a concussion, as is Cierre Wood (knee), but LeSean McCoy (hamstring) may make an early return after missing the last two games – and wide receivers Percy Harvin (hip) and Sammy Watkins (calf) are both questionable. The Bengal defense should have no problem with Manuel and a less-than-100% McCoy.

Prediction: Bengals 27, Bills 17

Pick: Bengals -3 (two units); over 42½; Bengals -160

 

1-4 Kansas City Chiefs at 2-2 Minnesota Vikings; early game on CBS; Greg Gumbel, Trent Green

Vikings -3½; over/under 43½; Chiefs +170, Vikings -190

The Chiefs started out losing tough games to quality opponents (Denver, Green Bay, Cincinnati), but after losing to the Bears – and losing RB Jamaal Charles for the rest of the year – their season is done. KC is giving up over 31 points per game on the road. Kansas City NT Dontari Poe is out with a high ankle sprain; that should pave the way for a big game by Minnesota RB Adrian Peterson (93 yards rushing per game, 4ᵗʰ best in the NFL).

Prediction: Vikings 31, Chiefs 17

Pick: Vikings -3½ (three units); over 43½; Chiefs +170

 

1-4 Houston Texans at 1-4 Jacksonville Jaguars; early game on CBS; Tom McCarthy, Adam Archuleta

Jaguars -2; over/under 43; Texans +100, Jaguars -120

Jacksonville quarterback Blake Bortles has a sore shoulder, and J.J. Watt got to him for six sacks last year. The Jaguars are giving up 29.0 points per game, second most in the NFL. Bill O’Brien may have mishandled the quarterback situation early in the season, but Brian Hoyer is playing better and deserves the start; he should have a good game against that suspect Jacksonville defense.

Prediction: Texans 23, Jaguars 21

Pick: Texans +2; over 43; Texans +100

 

2-3 Chicago Bears at 0-5 Detroit Lions; early game on FOX; Chris Myers, Ronde Barber

Lions -3½; over/under 44; Bears +140, Lions -160

Much maligned Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler could be in for a big game here. The Lions pass defense is awful; they rank dead last in opponent completion percentage (76.6%), yards per pass attempt (9.2), opponent passer rating (116.4), allowing nine touchdown passes with only three interceptions. Chicago’s pass D isn’t any better, so Matthew Stafford (three picks last week) could rebound here. The Bears have given up eleven passing touchdowns with only two picks and opposing quarterbacks are posting a 105.8 passer rating (28ᵗʰ).

Prediction: Bears 27, Lions 24

Pick: Bears +3½; over 44; Bears +140

 

2-3 Washington Redskins at 3-1 New York Jets; early game on FOX; Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston

Jets -6½; over/under 40½; Skins +250, Jets -300

These are somewhat similar teams: good defenses that rely on the offense to not make mistakes and do just barely enough to win; the difference is that the Jets are better on both sides of the ball. Washington’s D played well in their first four games, but Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman ran right through the Skins to the tune of 156 rushing yards and 5.4 yards per carry. Some of that can be attributed to Washington having to respect Atlanta’s passing game, but I would still think that Chris Ivory should be able to run for plenty of daylight here. If Washington finds themselves in third-and-longs or behind on the scoreboard in the second half, you can count on Darrelle Revis picking off Kirk Cousins.

Prediction: Jets 23, Skins 17

Pick: Jets -6½; under 40½ (one unit); Jets -300 (½ unit)

 

4-1 Arizona Cardinals at 3-2 Pittsburgh Steelers; early game on FOX; Thom Brennaman, Troy Aikman

Cardinals -3½; over/under 44½; Cardinals -180, Steelers +160

A year ago Arizona was abysmal running the ball, finishing last in the NFL with 3.3 yards per carry. Head coach Bruce Arians has rejuvenated the offensive line and RB Chris Johnson has revitalized his career; the Cardinals now boast an NFL-best 5.0 yards per carry through five weeks. However, Pittsburgh has a solid run defense; expect Arizona to test a Steeler secondary that is allowing opponents to complete 70.4% of their passes (29ᵗʰ). While the revenge angle is focused on the Patriots this week, let’s not overlook that factor in this game. Arians did not have his contract renewed after the 2011 season, even though Pittsburgh made it to the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh fans and media pinned the blame on Arians, complaining that the Steelers threw the ball too much. Fast forward to present day, and all Arians has done is win Coach of the Year honors twice and breath life into a perennial loser of a franchise.

Prediction: Cardinals 31, Steelers 20

Pick: Cardinals -3½ (two units); over 44½; Cardinals -180

 

1-3 Miami Dolphins at 1-3 Tennessee Titans; early game on CBS; Andrew Catalon, Steve Beuerlein

Titans -1½; over/under 43½; Dolphins +100, Titans -120

The Fins finally dumped laid-back Joe Philbin, and replaced him with far more rigid Dan Campbell. On paper Miami is the far more talented team, and I would expect them to respond positively – at least in the short term – to the coaching change. I would expect Campbell to place more emphasis on running the ball – Miami ranks last in the NFL with 16.2 rushing attempts per game – and Tennessee is just 24ᵗʰ in the league against the run, allowing 4.4 yards per carry.

Prediction: Dolphins 23, Titans 16

Pick: Dolphins +1½ (one unit); under 43½; Dolphins +100

 

4-0 Carolina Panthers at 2-3 Seattle Seahawks; late game on FOX; Sam Rosen, John Lynch

Seahawks -7; over/under 41; Panthers +250, Seahawks -300

If this was any other game between an undefeated team and a club with a losing record you would expect the 4-0 team to be favored – or at least not be a seven-point underdog. Carolina’s defense is very good, and should pose problems for the Seahawks. Carolina has limited opponents to 3.8 yards per rush attempt, and gets a boost with the return of linebacker Luke Kuechly. Corner Josh Norman is having an all-pro season but the pass rush may take a step back: LDE Charles Johnson is on in-season IR with a hamstring injury, and RDE Jared Allen is out with a bad back. Even without those two the Panthers should still have the upper hand against a mediocre Seattle passing game and porous offensive line that has surrendered an NFL-worst 22 sacks; overall the Seahawks are last in scoring touchdowns in the red zone (27.3%). Through week five Football Outsiders ranks the Panthers as the number four pass defense as Carolina has limited opponents to a 64.1 passer rating (3ʳᵈ), with those quarterbacks completing only 59.2% of their passes, picking off eight interceptions against just four touchdowns.

Prediction: Panthers 20, Seahawks 16

Pick: Panthers +7 (one unit); under 41; Panthers +250

 

2-3 San Diego Chargers at 5-0 Green Bay Packers; late game on CBS; Jim Nantz, Phil Simms

Packers -10; over/under 50½; Chargers +500, Packers -700

The Chargers are in a really tough spot here: they have a bad offense, going up against one of the league’s best offenses, on the road on a short week following a difficult last-second loss. San Diego is giving up 26.8 points per game (23ʳᵈ), 5.1 yards per rush (32ⁿᵈ), 132 rushing yards per game (30ᵗʰ), 7.8 yards per pass attempt (25ᵗʰ) and 6.1 yards per play (28ᵗʰ). Meanwhile Green Bay is scoring 27.4 points per game (fifth best in the NFL), rushing for 126 yards per game (9ᵗʰ) with a highly efficient offense (13.2 yards per point, fifth best) that has only turned the ball over four times (also fifth best). Philip Rivers is a very good player (323 passing yards per game; 71.3 percent completion rate; 8.6 yards per pass attempt), but he needs lots of help from the rest of the roster keep this from being a blowout.

Prediction: Packers 35, Chargers 20

Pick: Packers -10; over 50½; Packers -700

 

1-4 Baltimore Ravens at 1-4 San Francisco 49ers; late game on CBS; Kevin Harlan, Rich Gannon

Ravens -2; over/under 43½; Ravens -130, Niners +110

What a difference a year makes. Twelve months ago a game between these two would be hyped to the point of exhaustion (Harbaugh Bowl!); now it is just a forgotten afterthought between two teams with a combined record of 2-8. The Baltimore defense is a shell of its former self, between Terrell Suggs out for the season (torn Achilles), Haloti Ngata now playing for Detroit and Elvis Dumervil dealing with a groin injury. Baltimore is allowing 27.4 points per game (26ᵗʰ); by comparison they ranked sixth in the NFL just last year at 18.9 points per game.

San Francisco’s primary issues are on the other side of the ball; the Niners rank last in the NFL with a paltry 15.0 points scored per game. After a couple of horrid games Colin Kaepernick looked better last week against the Giants, but at this point the rest of the season is just an audition so San Fran’s front office can decide whether Kaepernick is their quarterback for the future, or if they should bite the bullet and cut their losses after signing him to a $114 million extension in 2014.

Prediction: Ravens 31, Niners 20

Pick: Ravens -2 (one unit); over 43½; Ravens -130

 

4-0 New England Patriots at 3-2 Indianapolis Colts; Sunday night game on NBC; Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth

Patriots -9; over/under 54½; Patriots -400, Colts +330

What can be said about this game that has not already been said? After watching Game Pass replays of the Colts first five games I will say that Indy’s run defense has improved. Rookie NT David Parry is better than I anticipated, as is his former Stanford teammate DL Henry Anderson. However, the Indianapolis defense appears to be extremely susceptible to quick short passes – and that is something that the New England Patriots execute better than any other team in the National Football League. Are the Pats going to be out for a pound of flesh in an act of revenge? I would be shocked if they were not. Note: in case you missed it, this game actually opened up with the Patriots favored by just five points. Hope you were as quick as I was jumping on that (pats self on back) with a full five units.

Prediction: Patriots 52, Colts 10

Pick: Patriots -9 (five units); over 54½; Patriots -400 (five units)

 

3-2 New York Giants at 2-3 Philadelphia Eagles; Monday night game on BSPN; Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden

Eagles -5½; over/under 49½; Giants +210, Eagles -250

Eli Manning has thrown ten touchdowns with only two picks, and is in the top ten in passer rating (100.2, 9ᵗʰ) and passing yards per game (283, 8ᵗʰ). However, the Eagles do a very good job of forcing turnovers (13, 2ⁿᵈ most in the NFL). I see this as a game that could easily go either way, decided by a field goal; in other words, take the Giants plus the points.

Prediction: Eagles 27, Giants 24

Pick: Giants +5½; over 49½; Giants +210

 

Bye Week: 2-3 Dallas Cowboys, 2-3 Oakland Raiders, 2-3 St. Louis Rams, 2-3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 

 

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints – preview, prediction and pick against the spread

John Morgan
October 15, 2015 at 9:46 am ET

The Atlanta Falcons look to advance to 6-0 in Thursday night’s game at division rival New Orleans. The first game of NFL week six kicks off at 8:25 pm eastern time and is televised on CBS (and NFLN). The Falcons are favored by 3½ points and the point total is listed at 51½ at most venues.

 

Injuries – New Orleans (1-4) need this game to turn their season around, but could be without the services of three starters on offense. LG Tim Lelito is out with a shoulder injury, LT Terron Armstead is doubtful due to a knee injury suffered two weeks ago, and WR Marques Colston is doubtful with a bad shoulder. Atlanta will be without two starters: OLB Justin Durant (elbow) and C Mike Person (ankle), but WR Julio Jones (probable; toe, hamstring) is expected to play.

 

Atlanta is looking to defeat the Saints on the road in consecutive games for the first time in 13 years. The Falcons won back-to-back games in New Orleans in 2001-02, but have been 3-9 in the Big Easy since then. Atlanta is the first team in NFL history to start 5-0 despite trailing in the 4th quarter in four of those games. New Atlanta head coach Dan Quinn spent nearly twenty years as a defensive line coach prior to becoming Seattle’s defensive coordinator for two years, when the Seahawks were the NFL’s best defense and won the Super Bowl. While it is still a work in progress, Atlanta’s defense has noticeably improved from the porous sieve that they were the last couple of years. The Falcon offensive line suffered through more than their share of injuries last year; that group being healthy has led to a much improved offense, especially running the ball. RB Devonta Freeman leads the NFL with eight rushing touchdowns and is second with 405 yards rushing. Despite a rough game last week against Washington, QB Matt Ryan is still completing 65% of his passes and averaging 291 passing yards per game. WR Julio Jones leads the league with 190 yards after the catch and is second overall with 545 yards receiving (109 yards per game).

 

New Orleans has been in a tough spot ever since the penalties imposed in the bountygate case; the loss of those draft picks plus having to pick late in the draft year after year have taken their toll. However, their biggest problem this year is that the strategy of pushing salaries into future years has caught up with them and placed them in salary cap jail. The Saints have a whopping $31.8 million in dead money on their salary cap, with a combined $25.5 million devoted to four players that are no longer on their roster: TE Jimmy Graham, LG Ben Grubbs, LB Junior Galette and LB Curtis Lofton. The end result is a woeful defense that is allowing and NFL-third worst 28.6 points per game, ranks last at 409 yards allowed per game, is 30th against the run (136 yards per game), and is 32nd with 6.5 yards allowed per play.

 

Prediction: In past seasons I would not even consider going against the Saints at home, but that home field advantage has completely dissipated. While I am still skeptical about Atlanta – I think they are still a year away, until some more talent can be assembled on defense – the Saints’ ship is sadly sinking quickly. The Falcons should be able to win this game easily, without having to resort to another late-game comeback.

 

Pick: Falcons 34, Saints 20

Falcons -3½ (three units); over 51½; Atlanta -180 (two units)

NFL Week 6 Television Broadcast Distribution

John Morgan
October 11, 2015 at 11:00 pm ET

The highlight of NFL week 6 will be the Sunday night game when the New England Patriots visit the Indianapolis Colts in a rematch of last season’s AFC championship game. Patriot fans are looking forward to some possible vindication for the sting and botched frame job that led to a litany of lies and the oblivious ignoring of basic science by the NFL in the fiasco of a witch hunt that became known as deflategate in that game. In anticipation of a scorched earth response, the betting line has already moved 2½-points (from 5 to 7½) in the last 48 hours.

 

Here is a preliminary look at what games are currently scheduled to be broadcast where for NFL week six. As always, keep in mind that local networks have the option to ask for changes to the games they air, and those requests are generally granted by network headquarters. CBS has the doubleheader so most markets will get two of their games; all markets will get one game on FOX. New York City, Pittsburgh, Detroit and Seattle will only get one CBS game due to NFL television broadcast rules.

 

5-0 Atlanta Falcons (-3) at 1-4 New Orleans Saints; Thursday, October 15 at 8:25 pm ET

Broadcast in all markets on CBS and NFLN

 

5-0 Denver Broncos (-5) at 2-3 Cleveland Browns; early (Oct 18) game on CBS

Broadcast in Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Cleveland, Toledo, Indiana, New Mexico, Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Nevada, California, Washington and Alaska

 

5-0 Cincinnati Bengals at 3-2 Buffalo Bills (Pick’em); early game on CBS

Broadcast in New England, New York (except NYC), Pennsylvania (except Pittsburgh), Maryland, Delaware, DC, Virginia, West Virginia, Ohio (except Cleveland and Toledo), Tennessee, North Carolina and South Carolina

 

1-4 Kansas City Chiefs at 2-2 Minnesota Vikings (-3½); early game on CBS

Broadcast in Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma

 

1-4 Houston Texans (-1) at 1-4 Jacksonville Jaguars; early game on CBS

Broadcast in Texas, Jacksonville and southern Georgia

 

2-3 Chicago Bears at 0-5 Detroit Lions (-3); early game on FOX

Broadcast in Toledo, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota (except Minneapolis), Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota and North Dakota

 

2-3 Washington Redskins at 3-1 New York Jets (-5½); early game on FOX

Broadcast in New England, New York (except Buffalo), Philadelphia, Delaware, Maryland, DC, Virginia, Miami, West Palm Beach, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Texas

 

4-1 Arizona Cardinals (-3½) at 2-2 Pittsburgh Steelers; early game on FOX

Broadcast in Pennsylvania (except Philadelphia), West Virginia, Ohio (except Cleveland and Toledo), Missouri (except Kansas City), Kansas, Arizona, Nevada, California and Hawaii

 

1-3 Miami Dolphins at 1-3 Tennessee Titans (-2½); early game on CBS

Broadcast in Florida (except Jacksonville), Tennessee and Oregon

 

4-0 Carolina Panthers (-6½) at 2-3 Seattle Seahawks; late game on FOX

Broadcast in Buffalo, Cleveland, Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida (except Miami/West Palm), Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Kansas City, Minneapolis, New Mexico, Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, Utah, Oregon, Washington and Alaska

 

2-2 San Diego Chargers at 5-0 Green Bay Pakers (-9½); late game on CBS

Broadcast in all of the US except Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, DC, Virginia, West Virginia, Ohio, Reno, northern California, Oregon and Washington

 

1-4 Baltimore Ravens (-2½) at 1-4 San Francisco 49ers; late game on CBS

Broadcast in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, DC, Virginia, West Virginia, Ohio, Reno, northern California, Oregon and Washington (except Seattle)

 

4-0 New England Patriots (-7½) at 3-2 Indianapolis Colts; Sunday night game at 8:30 pm ET

Broadcast in all markets on NBC

 

3-2 New York Giants at 2-3 Philadelphia Eagles (-3½); Monday night game at 8:30 pm ET

Broadcast in all markets on BSPN

 

 

Projections for broadcast crews for each week six game:

Falcons-Saints: Jim Nantz, Phil Simms

Broncos-Browns: Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts

Bengals-Bills: Kevin Harlan, Rich Gannon (?)

Chiefs-Vikings: Greg Gumbel, Trent Green

Texans-Jaguars: Tom McCarthy, Adam Archuleta (?)

Bears-Lions: Chris Myers, Ronde Barber

Skins-Jets: Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston

Cardinals-Steelers: Thom Brennaman, Troy Aikman

Dolphins-Titans: Andrew Catalon, Steve Tasker (?)

Panthers-Seahawks: Sam Rosen, John Lynch

Chargers-Packers: Jim Nantz, Phil Simms

Ravens-Niners: Spero Dedes, Solomon Wilcots (?)

Patriots-Colts: Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth

Giants-Eagles: Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden