Potental Patriots, A.J. Brown Trade: Deal Feels Like a Massive Gamble

This should be an interesting week, with the calendar having turned to June and a potential big Patriots trade looming.

Once the calendar moves past June 1st, the overall belief seems to be that Eagles receiver A.J. Brown will be on his way to Foxboro shortly after. That would seemingly provide the New England Patriots with a significant player alongside Drake Maye and the offense.

According to multiple reports, the compensation is said to be centered around a 2028 first-round pick. The Eagles, in recent days, are rumored to instead be seeking a 2027 first-round selection. Ian Rapoport had indicated late last week that there may be a hangup between the two sides due to that, but the consensus seems to be that a deal will get done.

“We’re all waiting for June 1st to happen so the cap hit is in half for the Philadelphia Eagles, and they could trade him,” said Rapoport last week. “I just don’t know that it’s going to be like snap your fingers and the deal is done because the two sides are where they have been, which is the Eagles wanting a first-round pick in 2027, the Patriots the most likely destination— we’ll see if someone else arises, but Patriots the most likely destination— not being willing to give up a first-round pick as of right now.”

“That means they’re not particularly close, and yeah, there’s a chance this could drag on for the foreseeable future.”

Feb 9, 2025; New Orleans, LA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown (11) scores a touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs during the first half of Super Bowl LIX at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images — **(PHOTO: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images)**

Concerns About Compensation

Giving up a first-round pick, even a future one, feels like a steep price for the veteran receiver. Unfortunately, there’s already been a recent precedent for it. The most recent comp to this deal would be Jaylen Waddle, who was traded back in March by the Dolphins to the Broncos.

In that deal, Miami sent Waddle and a 2026 fourth-round pick to Denver in exchange for a 2026 first, third, and fourth-round pick.

However, while Waddle is 27 and Brown is 28 (he turns 29 on June 3oth), there are certainly some health concerns. Brown has battled knee injuries since his days in Tennessee, with that playing a role in his initial trade to Philadelphia, and most recently being the reason the Rams reportedly backed out of the mix this spring.

Even if Brown gave the Patriots a productive 2026, it would be difficult to watch that production drop off in 2027 or even see it fall off completely in 2028.

A bad year in 2028, if that’s indeed the year the deal they agree on, could end up working out in Philadelphia’s favor. For the Patriots, it would keep them from being able to select a potential future difference maker.

That would definitely sting, leaving people second-guessing a move that already has mixed reactions.

Jan 18, 2026; Foxborough, MA, USA; England Patriots wide receiver Kayshon Boutte (9) catches the ball for a touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Houston Texans in an AFC Divisional Round game at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images — **(PHOTO: David Butler II-Imagn Images)**

Kayshon Boutte’s Future

The other challenge is the fact that Kayshon Boutte seems to be the odd man out in this equation, although the timing is really the bigger story.

The fourth-year receiver is heading into the final year of his rookie deal, which complicates things. The logical move would seemingly be to keep him and not make the trade, especially given that he’ll be out there with Romeo Doubs, along with a hopefully improved Kyle Williams.

If Boutte takes another step forward, it could see him have a productive year, which some might forget that a hamstring and concussion caused him to miss three games in 2025.

Still, Boutte ended up finishing with 33 receptions for 551 yards and six touchdowns, finishing third among Patriots wide receivers last season.

It would also keep the Patriots from possibly overpaying for Brown while giving up what could be an important pick later on.

At the same time, the issue would then be losing Boutte with nothing to show for it. The amount of money he’ll be seeking next year would likely see another team overpay for him.

If New England can acquire compensation to give them ammunition down the road, trading Boutte does make sense from that standpoint. As nice as it would be to keep him, Boutte’s value is probably about as high as it’s going to be heading into training camp.

Tennessee Titans head coach Mike Vrabel hugs Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown (11) as the teams get ready to face off at Lincoln Financial Field Sunday, Dec. 4, 2022, in Philadelphia, Pa.

Nfl Tennessee Titans At Philadelphia Eagles — **(PHOTO: George Walker IV / Tennessean.com / USA TODAY NETWORK)**

Risks of Acquiring Brown

When it comes to Brown, as nice as it would be to add an impact player on offense, there are definitely questions. The biggest one would be whether Brown can give the Patriots a few good seasons the same way Randy Moss did, or if his body will ultimately cut things short.

That would leave the Patriots forced to look elsewhere, with one less chip to spend in acquiring a replacement. Even worse, that future season would squander a year of Maye’s career.

Head coach Mike Vrabel seems ready to take that gamble, and he’ll have to hope it pays off. Brown looked like a shell of himself in January, the same way that aging veterans often do after what’s become an even longer NFL season.

After their loss to the Seahawks, the hope is that Brown can be the difference-maker the Patriots were missing. Still, New England also has to hope that Brown won’t be the same player who dropped passes for the Eagles in key moments, which ended Philadelphia’s own playoff run.

Otherwise, watching that pick come off the board in 2028 – if that’s ultimately what the deal turns out to be – might be that much harder to watch.

About Ian Logue

Ian Logue is a Seacoast native and owner and senior writer for PatsFans.com, an independent media site covering the New England Patriots and has been running this site in one form or another since 1997.

View all posts by Ian Logue