These are my Keys to the Patriots Victory in Super Bowl LX.
Drake Maye has to play up to the level we have seen him play this season. That means he has to protect the ball (fumbles) and not throw into coverage. He needs to continue to use his legs to extend plays and run with the ball when the opportunity arises. I expect Seattle to have a spy on Maye to prevent him from those big plays with his legs. Give Maye some easy completions to start the game, get his confidence up, and get rid of his opening game jitters.
Patriots must be able to run the ball against the Seahawks. Seattle is very good against the run. The Patriots are the 1st team in the Super Bowl era to start two rookies on the offensive line. Campbell and Wilson will be matched up against Lawrence and Williams, not an ideal matchup.
The Patriots need to stay out of 3rd and long situations. Perhaps they can throw more on 1st. If they can run the ball, this will put a lot of pressure on the Seahawks defense. They do not like to stack the box to stop the run. If they are forced to bring a Linebacker or Safety into the box to stop the run, this weakens their Defense. Play action will be more effective, also.
The use of 6 Offensive Lineman has been a very good personnel grouping for the Patriots. They run out of this jumbo package, but they also pass out of it. By running this heavy run set, it forces the Seahawks to match personnel and prevents them from employing their smothering Cover 6 pass defense.
Another formation that has worked against Seattle is the Stack or 3 Wide to one side and a single receiver to the opposite side. This could set up a one-on-one matchup of Kayshon Boutte versus Joshua Jobe, their weakest Defensive Back. Jobe will give up the deep pass.
Another key will be the use of motion by the receivers. Usually, this is to determine if a Defense is playing Zone or Man coverage. The Seahawks will disguise this and not give it away pre-snap. This may give the Patriots two advantages. The first is that the receiver gets a jump on the DBs. The second is that the Patriots can force the Seahawks into a coverage that the Patriots prefer.
The disguise of coverage and not giving it away pre-snap is a key for Seattle and something the Patriots Receivers and Drake Maye need to adjust to instantaneously. How they all process this will go a long way to determining the victor.
Weather – Drake Maye and the Patriots have had to play in Bad or Cold weather in all three playoff games. In Seattle, it was exceptionally mild with 49o against San Francisco and 47o against Los Angeles. Game time temps for the Super Bowl is projected in the mid 60’s.
Seattle will not have the home-field advantage and the outstanding support of the 12th man at a neutral site. The noise in Seattle is the loudest in the league, and a distinct advantage for Seattle. The Patriots are Road Warriors, being the only team in league history to win 9 games on the road in a single season.
The overwhelming number of NFL Analysts and pundits who have picked Seattle is incredible. They are 85-90% favorites. I guarantee you that Mike Vrabel is using this to motivate his Patriots Defensive players. The Patriots D is vastly underrated, and those jumping on the Seattle Bandwagon will find this out when the Defense stuffs the Seahawks run game. Seattle wants to run the ball so the offense can establish the play-action pass. Sam Darnold, like most QBs in the league, is much better when using Play Action. However, the Patriots’ pass defense is #1 versus the play-action pass.
Barmore and Williams need to put pressure on Sam Darnold. The interior of the Seattle line is weak. If they can apply pressure on Darnold, his passing numbers go way down. He is the worst QB in the league when pressured. He also has a tendency to throw interceptions when pressured.
Super Bowl Experience – The Patriots have it all over the Seahawks. Mike Vrabel played in the Super Bowl. Josh McDaniels coached in 10 Super Bowls. Milton Williams and Carlton Davis are veterans of Super Bowls. This kind of experience is invaluable. Vrabel, in Friday’s practice, stopped practice and had the team come into the locker room for what would have been the entirety of a Super Bowl halftime, much longer than a normal regular-season halftime.
Special Teams are crucial to this game. I believe points are going to be at a premium, and execution will be paramount. Seattle has very good special teams, and preventing them from getting big plays on Special teams is a key to this game. If the Patriots on the other side can force a big return, that could turn the game around.
Turnovers will decide this game. Seattle loves to take away the ball. If the Patriots minimize the turnovers, they will have a strong chance of winning the game.
Bottom line: the Patriots’ Defense is much better than the pundits are giving them credit for. This will be a close game, and I will be betting the under in the game. My projection is 16-13 Patriots.
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Merrimack Valley native and lifelong fan of the New England Patriots. My earliest memories of the Patriots were attending as a child with my dad, the off-season practice at Phillips Academy. I was at the Patriots game at Harvard Stadium in 1970 where Bob “Harpo” Gladieux was called out of the stands by the stadium announcer over the PA to play in the game. Analyzing the draft since ESPN first started to televise it in 1980 and former writer for the Lowell Sun Newspaper.
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