Patriots-Jets Week 11, Keys To The Game, Key Matchups
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The Patriots return home and face the Jets on Thursday Night Football at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro. After suffering a slew of injuries in Tampa, the short week has a long injury list, which could affect the game-day roster.
The Patriots have now won seven in a row to sit at 8-2 and are tied with Indianapolis and Denver for the best record in the AFC.
With a win on Thursday night, the Patriots would move to 9-2 and would clinch their first winning season since 2021. Since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, the Steelers have led the league with 41 winning seasons. The Patriots are second with 35 winning seasons.
The Patriots play their 11th game of the season on a short week. Because of that, we can expect each team to try to win with a physical, run-first approach. The Jets are definitely a run-first team. Their QB, Justin Fields, is more runner than thrower, but he skewered the Patriots in a visit to Gillette Stadium in 2022.
Prime Video will broadcast this week’s game and can be seen in the Boston area on WCVB (Channel 5). Al Michaels will handle play-by-play duties with Kirk Herbstreit as the color analyst. Kaylee Hartung will work from the sidelines. The game will also be aired on the Patriots’ flagship radio station, 98.5 The Sports Hub, with Bob Socci and Scott Zolak on the call, produced by Marc Capello.
We at PatsFans.com are continuing our “Razor’s Edge” column in 2025 to analyze key matchups and predict the game’s outcome.
The Jets have won two games in a row after starting the season 0-7. On Sunday, they beat the Cleveland Browns 27-20, thanks in part to some stellar special teams play in the first quarter. Kene Nwangwu returned a kickoff 99 yards for a touchdown, and Isaiah Williams followed with a 74-yard punt return for a touchdown.
Justin Fields, however, continues to struggle and completed just 6-11 passes for 54 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Of Fields’ passing yards, 42 of them came on a screen pass to Breece Hall for a touchdown. In addition to his TD catch, Hall had 83 yards rushing on 21 carries.
Will McDonald had a huge game for the Jets’ defense with four sacks, four TFLs, and five QB hits.
Now, we can examine some key matchups and determine who holds the Razor’s Edge. First up is the Patriots offense:
The Patriots’ running game has continued to struggle overall, but last week against a very good Tampa run defense, they rolled up 166 yards on the ground. TreVeyon Henderson had a career game with 147 yards rushing with two long touchdown runs of 55 and 69 yards.
The Jets’ run defense ranks 25th in the league in yards allowed rushing (138.2), and 21st in yards allowed per rush (4.5). With the trades of Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, the Jets are looking for new leaders to take over the leadership role on defense.
Although the Patriots are woefully thin at running back with Rhamondre Stevenson and Terrell Jennings banged up and likely to miss this game, I expect that Henderson and D’Ernest Johnson will still be able to provide them with the yardage needed to allow Drake Maye to utilize play-action passing.
I look for them to run at DE Will McDonald, who is developing into an outstanding pass rusher but is still a work in progress in the running game. The Jets should have Kiko Mauigoa back from a concussion in time for the game.
The Patriots’ passing game is going against a statistically good pass defense this week. The Jets’ pass defense is ranked eighth in the league, allowing just 190.8 yards per game. On Sunday, they limited Dylan Gabriel to just 167 yards passing, going 17-32 with two touchdowns and no interceptions. However, he was sacked six times for a loss of 47 yards.
Will McDonald had four of the sacks, and Quincy Williams and Jermaine Johnson had the others. McDonald will line up against former Jet Morgan Moses. Will Campbell will be matched up with Johnson.
Their secondary wasn’t tested much last week, but losing a player of Gardner’s ability has to hurt. CB Azareye’h Thomas missed Tuesday’s practice with a concussion. The Jets are the only team without an interception this season.
The Jets employ a lot of man coverage, but that may not be the preferred method this week against the Patriots, as they could be exposed by Maye’s scrambling unless they utilize a spy, something the Bucs did.
Obviously, the Patriots would be in better shape to take shots down the field if Kayshon Boutte were available, but that doesn’t seem likely. But they have plenty of options to stress the Jets’ secondary.
However, the Jets limited the Browns to 20 yards passing in the second half. They have allowed 557 yards passing in the second half of games this season, the fewest in the league. Whether that is because of the strength of the defense or the fact that the Jets are behind in those games remains to be seen.
Next up is the Jets offense.
The Patriots’ run defense is currently the #1 unit in the NFL. They have allowed only 79.2 yards per game, but last week they had their worst statistical game against the Bucs’ running game, which was missing Bucky Irving.
The Jets do possess a very potent running game, and that begins with RB Breece Hall, who accounted for 74 percent of the Jets’ 169 yards of offense in the win over Cleveland on Sunday.
Fields will have designed runs that the Patriots must be aware of, like the naked boot he ran against the Steelers for a touchdown.
Mike Vrabel in his Tuesday press conference, was aware of the challenges of the Jets’ running game.
“We’ll have a huge challenge this week, and whether it’s their scheme runs with the quarterback, whether it’s Breece Hall, whether it’s the under center, the gun runs, the pull schemes, the perimeter runs.
“So, that’s all that’s going to matter this week, is how we do those, and whatever scheme runs that they have coming up that we’ll have to prepare for and tackle,” Vrabel said.
The Jets are going to get their yards on Thursday, but will it be enough to keep the game close?
The Jets’ best weapon, Garrett Wilson, will be out 3-4 weeks with a knee injury. Their best weapon through the air may be Hall out of the backfield. In three of the past four games, Fields has thrown for less than 60 yards.
He passed for 54 against the Browns, 46 vs. Carolina, and 45 (-10 yards net) vs. Denver. He did throw for 244 yards in the win at Cincinnati on Oct. 26. Coincidentally, it was Hall who threw for the winning TD against the Bengals.
Normally with a running QB, I’d suggest the Patriots put a spy on Fields, but in this game, the Patriots might opt for Robert Spillane to follow Hall all game long.
Rookie TE Mason Taylor will bear watching in this one, as the Patriots have had issues covering tight ends this season.
The Patriots’ special teams units may need to bring their “A” game this week. The Jets scored two ST touchdowns on a kick return and a punt return in the first quarter.
The Jets’ special teams are #1 in STs DVOA. New York has the top-ranked kickoff return unit in DVOA, averaging 28.8 yards per kickoff return. They’re also fifth in punt return DVOA with a 13.6-yard average. Its the best they have looked on STs since Mike Westoff was the coach.
Former Patriot, K Nick Folk has been perfect this season, going 19 of 19 on field goals and making all 12 of his extra points.
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The Patriots are seeking their eighth consecutive win and aiming to secure their first winning season since finishing 10-7 in 2021.
Usually, these games on short weeks (I have traditionally hated TNF games) tend to be sloppy and closer than they would be on a regular Sunday schedule. With so many injuries that piled up on Sunday in Tampa, the Patriots could be ripe for a letdown.
But Mike Vrabel will have the team ready to go. Drake Maye will continue his stellar play, finding plays all over the field, including some deep shots on the Jets’ secondary.
The Jets, unless they continue to get scoring from their special teams, don’t have the offense to hang with New England.
Patriots 31-13
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