Patriots-Buccaneers Week 10, Keys To The Game, Key Matchups
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The Patriots head back out on the road for a tough matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday afternoon at 1:00 pm.
They’ve now won six in a row to sit at 7-2 and are the #2 seed in the AFC, behind the Indianapolis Colts, who are rolling along at 7-2. The Colts, Patriots, and Broncos are all tied with the same record currently at the top of the AFC.
On Sunday, they seemed poised to pull away from the Falcons at the end of the first half, but a late turnover sparked an Atlanta comeback that ultimately fell short, as the Patriots held on for a 24-23 win.
This week’s opponent is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are coming off a bye week and are 6-2.
Their defense is outstanding, ranking #7 overall and equally as strong in both the running and passing games. Baker Mayfield is one of the early candidates for the MVP this season, although the past two weeks, the Bucs offense has struggled due to an epidemic of injuries.
CBS will broadcast this week’s game, which can be seen locally on WBZ-TV Channel 4. Jim Nantz will handle play-by-play duties with Tony Romo as the color analyst. Tracy Wolfson will provide analysis from the sidelines. The game will also be aired on the Patriots’ flagship radio station, 98.5 The Sports Hub, with Bob Socci and Scott Zolak on the call, produced by Marc Capello.
We at PatsFans.com are continuing our “Razor’s Edge” column in 2025 to analyze key matchups and predict the game’s outcome.
The Bucs, in their last three games before the bye week, notched 15 sacks, and the team is +7 in the turnover department. If anything is going to give you pause this week, those two stats are the ones to keep track of.
From Patriots.com, the Patriots are 4-0 on the road. The team has achieved a road record of 5-0 or better six times in its history (1978 – 6-0, 2006 – 5-0, 2007 – 8-0, 2016 – 8-0, 2017 – 6-0, and 2021 – 6-0). The six-game winning streak in 2025 is the longest streak since 2021, when the Patriots had a seven-game winning streak from Week 7 to Week 13.
Now, we can examine some key matchups and determine who holds the Razor’s Edge. First up is the Patriots offense:
The Patriots’ running game has been good the past few weeks, and even missing Rhamondre Stevenson, who will probably miss this week again with a toe injury. TreVeyon Henderson had 87 total yards 55 rushing, and 32 receiving in his most extended snaps of the season.
Terrell Jennings had 35 rushing yards and his first NFL touchdown last week against the Falcons.
Tampa’s run defense is seventh in the league allowing just 92.6 yards per game. They have the enormous and talented Vita Vea inside over center Garrett Bradbury, who has been bothered by a bad hip, and LG Jared Wilson.
The Patriots’ passing game is going strength against strength again this week. The Bucs’ pass defense ranking is somewhat skewed from a yardage standpoint. Tampa’s pass defense is allowing 228.8 yards per game, which is 22nd in the league, but they are much better than that. The Bucs are seventh in total DVOA (sixth against the run, seventh against the pass).
As I mentioned earlier, in their past three games, the Bucs have garnered a total of 15 sacks. If there is one thing the Patriots have struggled with, it is giving up sacks. Vea can be a game wrecker on defense. The Buccaneers blitz frequently and consistently bring pressure, disguising their blitzes extremely well.
Will Campbell will be matched up with edge rusher Yaya Diaby who leads the team with 28 pressures along with four sacks.
Their secondary is elite, with boundary corners CB Jamel Dean and CB Zyon McCollum, with rookie Jacob Parrish in the slot. At safety, Antoine Winfield Jr. and Tykee Smith are an outstanding tandem.
Josh McDaniels will have to scheme up some rollouts for Maye to escape pressure and look for downfield openings. With Kayshon Boutte probably missing the next few games, it is time for Kyle Williams and Efton Chism (possibly) to show what they can do.
Getting the ball out quickly will be the game plan this week. That and cutting out turnovers which the Bucs’ defense thrive on.
Next up is the Tampa Bay offense.
The Patriots’ run defense is currently the #1 unit in the NFL. They have allowed only 75.4 yards per game. The run defense philosophy has been to take away the opponent’s best rusher, and thus far, it has been highly effective. They have yet to allow an opponent running back to rush for 50 yards this season.
The Buccaneers are missing the talented Bucky Irving, and as a result, are only averaging 98.1 yards per game, which ranks 24th in the league. I see the Patriots’ trend of holding an opponent’s running game in check continues for another week.
If the Patriots don’t allow a Tampa Bay running back to reach 50 yards this week, they will tie the record for the longest streak since the AFL/NFL merger, which is 10 games set by the Bucs.
The Bucs’ best weapons, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, are hurt. Evans is on IR, and Godwin hasn’t practiced and will probably miss this week’s game. So, why do the Bucs get the edge? The same reason the Patriots do. The quarterback. Baker Mayfield has been outstanding this season, absolutely willing his team to wins.
Mayfield, not surprisingly, has struggled against man coverage this season with his best weapons on the shelf. I would expect the Patriots to play more man coverage this weekend, with Christian Gonzalez matching up against the talented Emeka Egbuka, the young, explosive receiver from Ohio State.
Tez Johnson in the slot will be matched up with Marcus Jones. I expect since Mayfield is so mobile, the Patriots will spy him with Robert Spillane on some downs to try to keep him in check from extending plays with his feet and getting deep chunk plays.
Bucs’ TE Cade Otton has become a key third down safety blanket for Mayfield. It will be intriguing to see how the Patriots line up to cover him.
The Patriots’ special teams units may need to pick up the slack this week. Marcus Jones has been excellent at returning punts and the team may need a big return to flip field position or to give them a short field.
Chase McLaughlin hit three (3) 50+ yard field goals against the Saints, while Riley Dixon averaged more than 50 yards per punt.
However, the Buccaneers’ punt coverage unit is currently ranked 29th in the NFL, with an average return allowed of 14.7 yards, and if the Patriots pull the upset, special teams may have to take advantage of that fact.
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The Patriots are looking for their seventh win in a row to stay atop the AFC East and tied for the AFC’s top record. Tampa Bay’s defense will present a really tough match-up for a team struggling to protect its quarterback. Drake Maye will get his yards passing and scrambling, but can they finish drives this week?
The Bucs offense has a slew of injuries, but can the Patriots take advantage of this enough to pull the upset? I think Baker Mayfield will give them fits despite the fact that his best weapons are on the shelf.
Unfortunately, the Patriots won’t score enough in this one and the winning streak comes to an end in Tampa.
Buccaneers 24-20
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Mayfield’s play was noted as down in his last two games vs early season. He had an oblique and knee issue noted by Tampa media as a root cause, but also missing Evans and Godwin is a likely factor in the mix. Tampa just had their BYE week, but is Mayfield better? Mayfield’s health is a variable especially given Tampa’s run game has not been good. Forecast is 84 degrees and 85% humidity in Tampa Sunday. Mixed sun/clouds. That’s generally not in favor of the road team, but Vrable did well rotating d-line in MIA week 2 in similar conditions.… Read more »