Patriots-Falcons Week 9, Keys To The Game, Key Matchups
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The Patriots remain home at Gillette Stadium this week after dismantling the Browns in the second half, 32-13.
They’ve now won five in a row to sit at 6-2 and are the #2 seed in the AFC, behind the Indianapolis Colts, who are rolling along at 7-1
On Sunday, they only managed nine points in the first half, but blew away a good Cleveland defense in the third quarter, scoring 21 points to put the game away early. Drake Maye had another superb outing, throwing for 282 yards and three touchdowns for a 135.7 passer rating.
This week’s opponent is the Atlanta Falcons, and the Miami Dolphins blew them out 34-10. Atlanta is a perfect Halloween opponent, because it can be trick or treat with them. They dominated Minnesota and Buffalo, beat Washington and were blown out by Miami and Carolina.
Their pass defense is outstanding, and they have too many talented skill position players to have an offense that struggles as much as they do (28th in points per game).
CBS will broadcast this week’s game, which can be seen locally on WBZ-TV Channel 4. Andrew Catalon will handle play-by-play duties with Jason McCourty and Charles Davis as the color analysts. AJ Ross will provide analysis from the sidelines. The game will also be aired on the Patriots’ flagship radio station, 98.5 The Sports Hub, with Bob Socci and Scott Zolak on the call, produced by Marc Capello.
We at PatsFans.com are continuing our “Razor’s Edge” column in 2025 to analyze key matchups and predict the game’s outcome.
The Falcons are expected to get back QB Michael Penix and WR Drake London this week from injuries. RB Bijan Robinson is the focal point of the offense, a stellar player who is fourth in yards after contact (429) with a league-high 36 forced miss tackles.
The Patriots are the only team in 2025 and the eighth since 1950 that has not surrendered 50 yards to a running back through the first eight games. It is the first time in the team’s history that this has occurred. The longest streak since the merger is 10 by Tampa Bay in 2020. Mike Vrabel’s Tennessee Titans also had an eight-game streak in 2021.
Now, we can examine some key matchups and determine who holds the Razor’s Edge. First up is the Patriots offense:
The Patriots’ running game found some daylight two weeks ago in Nashville, rushing for 175 yards, but more impressive was the team rushing for 177 yards against the Browns last week. Cleveland’s run defense entered the game a top 5 unit.
Atlanta’s run defense has not been impressive, allowing 126.4 yards per game, which ranks 21st in the league. They’ve been susceptible to gap schemes, which no doubt hasn’t escaped Josh McDaniels’ attention.
Look for the Patriots to use more of TreVeyon Henderson again this week, especially with Rhamondre Stevenson hurting with a toe injury. The toss crack runs showed Henderson’s burst and vision and they could use more of that.
The Patriots’ passing game is going strength against strength this week. Atlanta’s pass defense is #1 in the league, allowing just 149.1 yards per game. Look for the Patriots to use play action to take some deep shots down the field on early downs against a very good pass defense.
Look for Maye to try to take some deep shots with Kayshon Boutte matched up against CB Mike Hughes, who has given three deep passes this season. The Patriots are 2nd in the league in explosive plays while Atlanta is 2nd in preventing explosive plays. Something has to give here.
The Falcons are best when it is third down in an obvious passing situation. They use pressure packages and disguise their coverages really well. The Patriots will have to stay ahead of the sticks this week to stay out of those situations. It may end up being the running game and taking some shots on early downs.
Next up is the Atlanta offense.
The Patriots continue to do a tremendous job of limiting their opponents’ running games, and with Milton Williams, Christian Barmore and Khyiris Tonga penetrating and creating havoc, teams haven’t been able to run effectively.
The Patriots have allowed just 76.0 yards per game, good for #2 in the league. As we mentioned above Robinson has been outstanding for the Falcons this year, and is one of the elite running backs in the league.
This is the best running back that the team has faced this year, and it will require the team to slow down Robinson, forcing the game into Penix’s hands, making the Falcons one-dimensional.
The Falcons’ best weapons have been their tight end Kyle Pitts, WR Drake London, and Drake London who has chewed up zone coverage.
It would seem logical to play more man coverage with Christian Gonzalez matched up with London. The Falcons haven’t handled man coverage well. But the issue with that would be trying to plan man on Pitts, and Robinson out of the backfield.
One area to watch is that Penix has a very good arm and can attack the area outside the numbers. But he’s struggled to use the middle of the field. Marcus Jones (AFC Defensive Player of the Month) will have his hands full with the speedy Darnell Mooney operating out of the slot.
A big matchup will Pitts against possibly Carlton Davis? K’Lavon Chaisson and Harold Landry against Falcons RT Elijah Wilkinson should be a mismatch for the Patriots to get pressure on the immobile Penix. But the pass rush, remains hit or miss for the Patriots.
The Patriots’ special teams units had their issues last week, three penalties, an onside kick recovered by the opponent and a 15-yard shanked punt.
Atlanta’s special teams have been a disappointment, specific metrics show the team ranks low in opponent punting (31st), kickoff return (32nd), and net punting (26th). Their kicker is Parker Romo, punter: Bradley Pinion, Long Snapper: Liam McCullough, and Punt and Kick Returner: Jamal Agnew.
I just have a feeling the Falcons STs units has a good day, while the Patriots struggle again.
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The Patriots will look to continue their two week stretch of running the ball effectively to set up play action to take some shots down the field. They’ve been getting excellent production and play from the depth guys, Pop Douglas and Mack Hollins, and that must continue to keep the defense defending the entire field. Obviously, Drake Maye will be the focal point from both the Patriots’ and Falcons’ gameplans.
Defensively, they need a 60-minute game and cease with these slow starts. They need to stop Robinson and force the ball into Penix’s hands and get pressure on him. He doesn’t throw to the middle of the field well nor often.
The Patriots hold serve at home in a tough game but one they use their running game to put away.
Patriots 27-17
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ATL just seems to beat up on D to come into Foxboro playing a hot pats team , and pull golf an upset.ATL has been getting gashed on the ground in recent weeks. Ya never know in the NFL, but even if ATL plays with desperation, it’ll take the pats to have a down game on multi units to lose. Pats 27 ATL 16