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Looking at the numbers, it’s tough not to feel a little more confident having Mike Vrabel back in the building when it comes to how this Patriots team might look on defense next season.
Coming off of a 2023 campaign where under Bill Belichick and his son Steve, who called the defensive plays that year, the Patriots found themselves 7th in average yards per game given up at 301.6. They were also 15th in points per game given up, averaging 21.5 allowed per contest.
Fast-forward to 2024 where under Jerod Mayo and Demarcus Covington, those totals changed dramatically. New England plummeted to 22nd in average yards allowed per game, giving up an average of 342.9, while their point total average rose to an average of 24.5 points per game.
Last season, New England’s defense was expected to be their strength, while their offense was expected to be a slow burn that improved as the year went on. The thought process was that with Mayo and Covington being carried over, that continuity would drive the defense and buy them time to hopefully get Drake Maye into the line-up at some point and potentially give them something to build off of heading into 2025.
The problem was, the Patriots ended up with issues on the other side of the football. Granted, there were unexpected personnel losses on defense, with Christian Barmore’s blood clot diagnosis being an issue that set them back up front. Still the overall performance was shockingly bad, and one trend in particular is pretty alarming.
You can point to one key issue when it comes to a lot of New England’s issues on offense last year, and that’s the fact they spent a lot of the year playing from behind. From Week 6 forward – essentially when Maye entered the line-up, they were outscored in a couple of key areas.
They were outscored 161-104 in the first half over that span, including 110-60 in the second quarter, with clubs really having their way after adjusting and moving the football following the first couple of series.
But the most glaring number was the fact they were outscored 75-27 in the third quarter, both of which came following adjustments by the opponent that neither Mayo nor Covington seemed to be able to catch back up to.
Compare that with 2023 when over the same span (Week 6 forward) – with Bailey Zappe and Mac Jones each struggling at quarterback – New England was outscored 120-91 in the first half, including 67-57 in the second quarter, and just 47-43 in the third.
Last season, the story was the same week after week. Opponents essentially took control of the game, and the Patriots spent the rest of the contest chasing them, while eventually either coming up short, or watching them completely pull away.
As a result, the inability of Mayo and Covington to adjust was key, and that was an area that was badly lacking this past season.
One of the things that Robert Kraft said ultimately led to the decision to part ways with Mayo after just one year was was New England’s performance in the final month of the season. Those totals are also tough, but there was another total that really stood out, especially compared to how things finished under that same span with Belichick.
In 2023, the Patriots were outscored 80-58 in the first half from December through the end of the year (from Week 13 on), but adjusted and were outscored just 27-23 in the third quarter. Compare that to 2024, they were outscored 64-54 in the first half with a better quarterback under center but were outscored by an astonishing 32-3 margin in the third quarter.
To come out of the locker room in the second half and get embarrassed that badly is just unbelievable.
Some might make the argument that it’s not a fair argument since the Patriots played six games over that span in December of 2023 compared to five in December of 2024, but the end result was the fact the team we saw last season – injuries aside – spent the majority of the year looking like players who were often chasing down opponents compared to being in the right place more often than not one year earlier.
One key quote in Andrew Callahan and Doug Kyed’s piece in the Herald sort of said it best. One veteran player told them that Belichick did a much better job communicating things guys weren’t doing.
“I don’t feel like practices were all that different, but when Bill spotted something we weren’t doing well, he would address it to the whole team and we would address it on the field,” he said. “That didn’t really happen as much later on.”
That shouldn’t be an issue with Vrabel, who is known for paying attention to the details and making sure his players are doing the same.
Under Vrabel, the Titans were consistently among the leaders in points allowed per game, and they played smart defensively. As an experienced coach, we should certainly see a more focused group and one that will be in the right place a little more often, which should hopefully yield different results.
In the meantime, the 2025 season feels like a year that has a chance of seeing a marked improvement from how things went this season. Having a well-coached group will likely drastically alter the overall landscape for the Patriots next season, which would be nice to see, considering the goal is to hopefully not squander yet another year of Christian Gonzalez’s rookie contract. Especially since they may find themselves needing to try and potentially extend him next offseason to ensure he doesn’t hit free agency.
For now, these next few weeks should be interesting. If whoever Vrabel hires to run the offense can help Maye take a nice step forward in year two, the Patriots could be set up for a much better finish in 2025.
Until then, the hope is that the roster gets an overhaul with players who fit whatever scheme Vrabel ultimately ends up putting in place. From there, Vrabel said on Monday that it starts with getting to know the players on his current roster in what he said is simply a fresh start for everyone.
“Everybody got here and will get here through a different avenue. Maybe we drafted them, maybe we signed them as a free agent, maybe we will sign them as a free agent. But none of that will matter,” said Vrabel. “None of that will matter how we got here. The only thing that’s going to matter is what we do when we’re here.”
“That’s the most important thing that I can tell them is that everybody, in my eyes, is starting over, and they will prove to us and to this team that their impact that they’ll make. We’re going to give those players an opportunity. We all have to be ready to take advantage of our opportunities.”
“Some people get more opportunities, some people get less, but we’re all guaranteed an opportunity and will you take advantage of it when it comes?”
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