MORSE: Patriots Week 16 Opponent: Buffalo Bills
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This week the Patriots face their division rival Buffalo Bills in Orchard Park. The Bills are contenders for the AFC championship and are playing very good football coming down the stretch.
The Bills are the #2 Scoring Offense at 31.8 points per game. Overall Offense, they stand at 7th with 369.6 yards per game. Passing they rank 7th with 238.8 yards per game and Rushing at 9th with 130.8 yards a game. In the Red Zone they are very effective, ranking 3rd at 68.9%. On 3rd down they rank 8th at 43.8%. Top 10 in all Offensive categories.
| Starter | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | |
| QB | Josh Allen | Mitchell Trubisky | Shane Buechele IR | – |
| RB | James Cook | Ray Davis | Ty Johnson | – |
| WR | Amari Cooper | Mack Hollins | – | – |
| WR | Khalil Shakir | Curtis Samuel Q | – | – |
| WR | Keon Coleman | – | – | |
| TE | Dalton Kincaid | Dawson Knox | Quintin Morris | – |
| FB | Reggie Gilliam | – | – | – |
| LT | Dion Dawkins | Ryan Van Demark | Tylan Grable | – |
| LG | David Edwards | Alec Anderson | – | – |
| C | Connor McGovern | Sedrick Van Pran-Granger | – | – |
| RG | O’Cyrus Torrence | – | – | – |
| RT | Spencer Brown Q | Tylan Grable | Travis Clayton IR | Tommy Doyle O |
It all starts with Josh Allen who is having an MVP type of year. This from Rotoballer, who has Allen ranked as the #1 QB. “Allen decided to pick up where he left off after Week 14. He delivered an encore of four total touchdowns this time around. The Bills were in another shootout with a top NFC foe (Lions), but this time they came out victorious. Allen put a huge stamp on the 2024 NFL MVP Award this week”. The 6’5” 237-pound QB was a 2018 1st round pick (#7) by the Bills out of Wyoming. The 28-year-old has completed 275 passes on 427 attempts, 64.4%, for 3395 yards, 25 TDs and just 5 INTs. Rushing he has 91 attempts for 484 yards, 5.3 yards per carry, 11 TDs and just 1 Fumble. He is in his prime and is showing it week by week.
James Cook handles the bulk of the carries, 171 carries for 828 yards, 4.8 yards per carry, 13 TDs and no fumbles. He also has 29 catches on 35 Targets for 232 yards and 1 TD. His PFF rating is 81.4 good for 11th in the league. Cook stands 5’11” 190-pounds and was a 2022 2nd round pick (#63) out of Georgia. Ray Davis is the backup. He stands 5’10” 216-pounds and was a 4th round pick (#129) of Buffalo in the 2024 draft out of Kentucky. For the season he has rushed 87 times for 359 yards, a TD and no fumbles. He has also contributed with 13 catches on 14 targets for 167 yards, 12.8 yards per catch and 2 TDs. His PFF rating is 74.9 good for 28th in the league. Also contributing is Ty Johnson, 5’10” 210-pound back out of Maryland. He was taken in the 2019 draft by Detroit in the 6th Round (#186). For the season he has 19 carries for 154 yards, 5.3 average, 1 TD and no fumbles. Receiving he is a big-time threat with 16 catches on 19 targets for 275 yards and a 17.2 yards per catch and 3 TDs. His PFF rating is 76.8 good for 18th.
The receiving corps is good but not great. They are led by Kalil Shakir. A 6’ 190-pound slot receiver out of Boise State. He was selected by Buffalo in the 2022 draft 5th round (#148). For the season he has 71 catches on 88 targets for 774 yards, a 10.9 YPC and 4 TDs. His PFF rating is an excellent 80.2, good for 20th. The Bills acquired Amari Cooper from the Browns just before the trade deadline and that was expected to be a boost for Buffalo. The 6’1 211-pound Alabama product was selected by then Oakland in the 2015 1st round (#4). He hasn’t really produced so far with just 16 catches on 27 targets, a 14.4 YPC and 1 TD. His PFF rating is 68.3 good for 76th. The Bills selected Keon Coleman just before the Patriots in the 2nd round (#33) of this year’s draft. The 6’4” 215-pound Florida State product has 23 receptions on 38 targets for a 20.9 YPC and 3 TDs. His PFF rating is 69.4 good for 46th.
The story as reported by Taylor Kyles of CLNS Media, the Patriots had a deal worked out with Buffalo for the last pick in the 1st round (#32). Buffalo wanted one of the two top remaining WR’s (Coleman and Xavier Legette). A source said that Buffalo took the Patriots offer and shopped it around the league and got Carolina to bite, dropping down one spot to prevent the Patriots from taking the WR they wanted (believed to be Legette whom CAR took). Buffalo screwed the Pats, their division rival. Naivete on Eliots Wolf’s part? Mack Hollins is a very underrated WR and a big part in the Bills Offense. The 6’4″ 221-pound wideout from North Carolina was taken in the 2017 draft by PHI 4th round (#118). For the season he has 24 catches on 41 targets for 295 yards, 12.3 YPC and 5 TDs. Hollins PFF rating is 58.9. The Bills also have Curtis Samuel who has 24 catches on 38 targets for 201 yards and a 8.4 YPC
At Tight End the Bills have two good ones in Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox. Kincaid stands 6’3” 240-pounds and was selected in the 2023 draft out of Utah in the 1st round (#26). For the season he has 38 receptions on 66 targets for 409 yards, 2 TDs and a fumble. His PFF rating is 76.7 good for 10th in the league. Knox is 6’4″ 254-pounds out of Mississippi. He was selected in the 2019 draft 3rd Round (#96). He has 19 receptions on 26 Targets for 285 yards 15.0 average and a TD. His PFF rating is 57.5 good for 63rd.
A remarkable stat about the Bills starting O-Line is that they have played together for 13 of the 14 games, with Right Tackle Spencer Brown missing just one game. Last season their O-line started all 17 games together. The Patriots have had 10 different starting O-line combinations this season and we might be looking at a new one this week if Cole Strange starts at Center. How is it a team like Buffalo can have these ironmen on the line and the Patriots can’t? Does it have to do with the strength and conditioning program? Curious that the Head Coach for Strength and Conditioning is Jerod Mayo’s brother Deron Mayo. In fairness, Deron Mayo was here as an assistant Strength and Conditioning coach before Jerod Mayo was an assistant coach here. This is Deron Mayo’s 1st year as head Strength and Conditioning coach.
Overall PFF ranks the Bills Offensive line 4th in the league. Left Tackle Dion Dawkins is 6’5” 320-pounds out of Temple. Buffalo selected him in the 2017 draft in the 2nd round (#63). Entering his 8th season, Dawkins has been selected to 3 Pro Bowl teams. His PFF grade for the season is 69.8 good for 40th. David Edwards plays Left Guard. The Wisconsin product stands 6’6” 308-pounds and was selected by the LA Rams in the 2019 draft 5th round (# 169). His PFF rating is 61.9 good for 64th.
Connor McGovern has big shoes to fill, replacing Mitch Morse at Center. McGovern signed with Buffalo in 2023 to play Guard. The 6’ 5” 318-pound McGovern was drafted as a Center by Dallas in the 2019 3rd round (#90) out of Penn State. He played mostly Guard in his 5 seasons before moving back to Center this year. His PPF grade is 71.1 good for 10th. O’Cyrus Torrence is the Right Guard. The Florida product is 6’5” 347-pounds. He was selected in the 2nd round (#60) of the 2023 draft by Buffalo. His PFF rating is 58.3 good for 82nd. Spencer Brown is the Right Tackle and his improvement over the last two seasons has been incredible. The 6’8” 310-pound Tackle from Northern Iowa was a 2021 selection in the 3rd Round (#94). Last season his PFF rating went from 76th in 2022 to 23rd in 2023. This season his 72.1 rating is 33rd in the league.
The Bills Overall Defense rankings is 23rd giving up 345.5 yards per game. Passing defense, they are ranked 25th giving up 221.8 yards a game. Run Defense is ranked 14th with 117.7 yards a game. Scoring Defense, they are 12th giving up 22.1 points per game, in the Red Zone they are 18th at a 58.5% and on 3rd Down they are 26th at 43.5%.
| Starter | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | |
| LDE | Greg Rousseau | Dawuane Smoot | – | – |
| LDT | DaQuan Jones | Jordan Phillips | – | – |
| RDT | Ed Oliver | Austin Johnson | DeWayne Carter | Quinton Jefferson |
| RDE | AJ Epenesa | Von Miller | Javon Solomon | |
| WLB | Matt Milano Q | Dorian Williams | Edefuan Ulofoshio | |
| MLB | Terrel Bernard | – | ||
| SLB | Joe Andreessen | Baylon Spector | ||
| LCB | Rasul Douglas Q | Ja’Marcus Ingram | – | – |
| SS | Taylor Rapp Q | Cole Bishop Q | – | |
| FS | Damar Hamlin Q | – | – | – |
| RCB | Christian Benford | Kaiir Elam | ||
| NB | Taron Johnson | Cam Lewis | Brandon Codrington | – |
LDE is Greg Rousseau from Miami. The 6’6” 260-pound end was taken in the 2021 draft by Buffalo in the 1st Round (#30). He leads the D-linemen in tackles with 46, added 16 Tackles For Loss (TFL) and 7.5 Sacks. His PFF rating is 82.2 good for 15th. Veteran DaQuan Jones is still producing at 33-years-old. The 6’4” 320-pound LDT from Penn State was taken in the 2014 Draft by TEN in the 4th Round (#112). He has 22 Tackles on the year and added 5 TFLs and 2 Sacks. His PFF rating is 66.2 good for 43rd.
Ed Oliver is an undersized DT from Houston. He stands just 6’1” 287-pounds but is a very disruptive player. Oliver was selected in the 2019 Draft by Buffalo in the 1st Round (#9). On the year he has 22 Tackles, 2 TFLs and 2 Sacks. His PFF rating is 68.4 good for 34th rank. AJ Epenesa isa 6’6” 260-pound Edge player out of Iowa. Buffalo selected him in the 2020 Draft in 2nd Round (#54). On the season he has 32 tackles, 5 TFLs and 5 Sacks.
Von Miller has seen limited time but is still an effective pass rusher. The 6’3” 250-pound Edge player was taken in 2011 Draft by DEN. The 35-year-old 13-year vet is a future Hall of Famer. He has been selected to the 1st Team All Pro 3 times, 2nd Team All Pro 4 times and selected to the Pro Bowl 8 times. On the season he has 12 Tackles, 5 TFLs and 4 Sacks. For his career he has 127.5 sacks. Only three players with 127 sacks have not made the Hall of Fame, and two of those were because they were not eligible yet.
At Linebacker Dorian Williams a 6’1” 230-pound backer out of Tulane, leads the team in tackles with 100. He also contributed 5 TFLs and no sacks. He has replaced Matt Milano for most of the season and has a PFF rating of 62.8 good for 93rd. Matt Milano played his 1st games of the season 3 weeks ago. The 6’ 223-pound linebacker from Boston College was a 2017 draft pick by Buffalo in the 5th Round (#163). He missed nearly all of 2023 and a majority of this year too. Terrel Bernard got the playing time last season when Milano was out and played very well. The 6’1” 234-pound backer out of Baylor has 86 Tackles, 5 TFLs and a sack. His PFF rating is 49.9 good for 149th. Joe Andreessen started his 1st game last week. The 6’1 232 UDFA out of Buffalo University has a 40.9 rating by PFF.
In the secondary Rasul Douglas a 6’2’ 209-pound CB out of West Virginia mans the LCB spot. He was taken in the 2017 draft by PHI in the 3rd round (#99). For the season he has 55 Tackles and 5 TFLs. His PFF rating is 60.7 good for 118th. Taylor Rapp is a 6’ 208-pound Safety out of Washington. He was taken by the Rams in the 2nd round of the 2019 draft 2nd round (#61). For the year he has 75 Tackles and 2 TFLs. His PFF rating is 63.3 good for 79th.
Damar Hamlin is the leading candidate for Comeback Player of the Year after suffering that near death experience last year. The 6’ 200-pound Safety out of Pittsburgh has 83 Tackles and 2 TFLs on the year. He was taken in the 2021 draft 6th round (#213) by Buffalo. His PFF rating 61.2 ranked 96th.
Christian Benford plays the RCB. The 6’1” 205-pound Villanova product was taken in the 2022 draft by Buffalo in the 6th Round (#185). On the year he has 58 Tackles and a sack. His PFF rating is 79.1 good for 11th. In the slot the Bills have Taron Johnson a 5’11” 192-pound CB out of Weber State. The 2024 UDFA has 58 Tackles and a sack on the season. His PFF rating is 61.3 good for 113th.
Special Teams
| Starter | 2nd | |
| PK | Tyler Bass | – |
| P | Sam Martin | – |
| H | Sam Martin | |
| PR | Brandon Codrington | – |
| KR | Brandon Codrington | Ty Johnson |
| LS | Reid Ferguson | – |
Tyler Bass has been a bit inconsistent. He ranks 8th in scoring with 113 points on the season but has missed 4 FG out of 26 attempts and missed 4 Extra Points in 54 attempts. Sam Martin ranks 17th in Punting Average per Kick and 23rd in net Average with 41.1. Brandon Codington ranks 5th in Punt Returns with a 11.2 average per return. On Kickoff returns if he had enough returns to qualify, he would have been ranked 4th in the league with a 27.8 yards per return.
The Patriots released Liam Fornadel from the Practice Squad. Fornadel signed with the Patriots Practice Squad after a tremendous 2024 season with the DC Defenders of the XFL League where he was named to the All-XFL team. Fornadel played at James Madison.
Alex Erickson is a 32-year-old 8-year Pro was signed in his slot. The Wider Receiver / Punt Returner played for 6 teams in the league. The 6’ 190-pound receiver out of Wisconsin led the NFL in Kickoff Returns in 2016 and has 113 receptions for 1373 yards in his career. Marcus Jones has missed all the practices this week with a hip issue.
Christian Barmore has been placed on the NFI list. In a statement by the Patriots, “are placing defensive lineman Christian Barmore on the reserve non-football illness list after he experienced some recurring symptoms that required further evaluation. We appreciate everything Christian did to return to the team this season, but our top priority is Christian’s health and wellbeing. We know that he will continue to receive tremendous care and we want to ensure that he gets the time he needs to come back stronger than ever.” Sounds like a re-occurrence of the blood clot issue.
DT Jacquelin Roy was placed on IR last week, ending his season. Look for the Pats to elevate a DT from the Practice Squad.
I anticipate kicker John Parker Romo will also receive an elevation to the roster for the game. Joey Slye missed another Field Goal and the team is getting weary of his inconsistent play.
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Bills will run the ball today for 150-200. My guess. Methodically controlling the game. If Im right, it won’t be fun to watch from a fan perspective, but it will be a bit of a gut punch to the pats from the Bills org to the Pats org. But hey, we beat the Bills down for so long, they won’t be done today with payback. The Bills success this year is indeed heavily correlated to that off-line heath and consistency/cohesiveness in the line-up goes along with it. As for the Bills health and the Pats lack thereof, that’s the NFL.… Read more »