The Patriots begin the 2024 season on the road against the AFC North’s Cincinnati Bengals. Kickoff is slated for 1:05 p.m. on Sunday. We’re on to Cincinnati.
CBS will broadcast this week’s game, which can be seen locally on WBZ-TV Channel 4. Ian Eagle will handle play-by-play duties with Charles Davis as the color analyst. Evan Washburn will provide updates from the sidelines. The game will also be aired on the Patriots flagship radio station, 98.5 The Sports Hub, with Bob Socci and Scott Zolak on the call, produced by Marc Capello.
We at PatsFans.com are continuing our “Razor’s Edge” column in 2024 to analyze some of the game’s key matchups and what to expect in the game’s outcome.
Some Quick Notes:
From Patriots.com: This year’s opening-day roster has 28 different players from last year’s 53 players who opened against the Eagles. The rebuild has only just begun.
The last time the Patriots had an opening-day kick return for a touchdown was back in 2010, when Brandon Tate had a 97-yard kickoff return for a touchdown against the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Bengals Are Primed For a Big Season —
The Bengals play in the very tough AFC North with Baltimore, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh. After a down year in 2023, the team looks to be one that will challenge for the division crown again and perhaps a deep playoff run.
Here are some quick notes on the Bengals before facing the Patriots in Week 1.
- The team is expected to have WR Ja’Marr Chase available for the game. He’s been embroiled in a contract dispute but returned to practice on Wednesday. “I saw him out there today. He looks fast and strong like he always does,” QB Joe Burrow said after practice. “I know he’s been doing what he needs to do to stay ready if he needs to be ready. I’m confident that if he does go out there on Sunday, then he’ll be the Ja’Marr we all know.”
- The Bengals’ run defense was its Achilles Heel in 2023. Last year, the Bengals allowed more than 136 yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry. They believe they’ve fixed those issues, but it will be a key area to watch.
- Burrow’s wrist surgery seems to be completely healed. He’s been wearing a glove that helps with his grip. However, Burrow stated that he feels better than any season opener since his rookie year in 2020.
- Cincinnati’s offense looks loaded this season. Burrow has WRs Chase and Tee Higgins and tall slot receiver Andre Iosivas (more on him below). The Bengals kept five (5) tight ends, including Erick All and Mike Gesicki. The team scrapped long-time back Joe Mixon and replaced him with Zack Moss and Chase Brown, giving them more versatility and breakaway speed.
- Top draft choice RT Amarius Mims has been banged up and isn’t expected to play this week. In his stead, former Patriot Trent Brown will play.
So now we can look at some key matchups and who holds the Razor’s Edge. First up is the Patriots offense:
Patriots RBs vs. Bengals Front Seven — Edge New England
The Patriots’ running game is critical to Alex Van Pelt’s offensive philosophy. They want to run the ball and use play-action passing and bootlegs to throw it down the field, attacking the perimeter and the seams. They have a good 1-2 punch with Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson, with JaMycal Hasty as the change of pace back.
Gibson has done well, especially in AVP’s zone-running system. Cincinnati brought in Sheldon Rankins to help with their leaky run defense of a year ago. If the Patriots are to be successful, the offensive line has to get to the second level and allow Stevenson and Gibson to reach beyond the line of scrimmage before getting hit.
Look for Cincinnati to prioritize stopping the run, stacking the box, using run blitzes to stop the run, and daring Jacoby Brissett to beat them by throwing the ball. However, the Patriots get the slight edge here.
Patriots WRs vs. Bengals Secondary — Edge Cincinnati
The Patriots’ passing game will ultimately hinge on whether they can pass protect this season, and they begin the season with a tough test. And we really don’t know who the Patriots’ starting tackles will be yet. Although Vederian Lowe returned to practice on Wednesday, will it be him or Chuks Okarafor at LT? Mike Onwenu has been practicing at RT, but they may still have some shuffling to do.
This is not an optimistic sign against a Bengals front seven, including Trey Hendrickson (17.5 sacks and 16 TFL in 2023) and Sam Hubbard. Bengals DC Lou Anarumo likes to disguise his coverages and bring pressure from different points of the defense. Will the OL be able to pick up these pressures? We’ll see. Hendrickson against Okarafor/Lowe is the matchup to watch.
The team may opt for heavier packages and use max protection on some passing plays to give Brissett time to throw. I expect him to use Demario Douglas out of the slot, Hunter Henry, and Antonio Gibson a lot in the early going. They will attempt some shots down the field with Tyquan Thornton and K.J. Osborn if he has time to throw. Look for some deep crossers as well. I expect rookies Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker to play only sparingly in the opener, but they should each see some work.
Next up, the Bengals offense:
Bengals RBs vs. NE Front Seven — Edge New England
The Bengals’ running game was mired in neutral a year ago, averaging only 89.8 yards per game, which was 31st in the NFL. They traded Joe Mixon and replaced him with Zach Moss and Chase Brown, giving them more speed and versatility. A couple of Cincy’s offensive linemen will look familiar. Center Ted Karras and RT Trent Brown are former Patriots.
The Patriots’ run defense was #1 in yards per attempt a year ago, and most players remain the same. Devon Godchaux is the anchor in the middle, and Jeremiah Pharms or Daniel Ekuale will replace Christian Barmore until he’s healed from blood clots. Jahlani Tavai and Ja’Whaun Bentley are excellent run-stuffers in the middle.
I expect the Patriots to be able to handle Cincinnati’s running game, which I believe will not be the Bengals’ top choice for attacking the Patriots’ defense.
Bengals WRs vs. NE Secondary — Edge Cincinnati
The Cincy passing game relies on spreading the field with Chase, Higgins, and Iosivas, forcing the defense to show its coverage. A year ago, they ran the spread at the highest rate in the league.
Iosivas (pronounced Yo See Vahsh) will be an intriguing player to watch. The slot receiver is 6’3, 212, and has a pronounced height advantage over slot corner Marcus Jones. When the Patriots last played Cincinnati in 2022, they played mainly zone coverage due to the Bengals’ size advantage across the board.
This year, cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez, Jon Jones, and Marcus Jones, along with safeties Kyle Dugger, Jabrill Peppers, and Jaylinn Hawkins, present an intriguing chess match. I expect Cincinnati to come out throwing the ball and trying to assert their will. This will be a big test for the Patriots secondary, which could use a productive pass rush to throw off Burrow’s timing.
Special Teams — Edge Cincinnati
The Patriots special teams units were, in a word …awful a year ago. They have been much improved this preseason. Joey Slye beat out incumbent Chad Ryland at kicker this summer, Bryce Barringer has been launching punts 50+ yards with great hang time, and they’ve got several solid returns in the kick return department. They also get back Marcus Jones, a dangerous punt returner in 2022.
All of this is cause for optimism… right? But I will hold back on that optimistic approach until I see it in a regular-season game.
Cincy has an excellent kicker in Evan MacPherson, a good punt returner in Charlie Jones, and a kick returner in Trayveon Williams. So, I’m giving the Bengals a slight advantage here for Sunday.
Next up, who wins and why…
The Patriots are in the middle of a rebuild. They are not competing for a playoff spot in 2024, but we’ll see how far they’ve come to this point against a good Cincinnati team.
Keys to the Game from a Patriots Perspective:
Run The Ball Effectively, especially on Early Downs — Look for the Patriots to try establishing the run, which will take some pressure off the offensive line and Brissett. This will give them much more manageable third downs to convert and keep the chains moving, allowing the offense to find a rhythm.
Getting Stevenson off to a productive start is imperative for the offense. Of course, the Bengals know this and will prioritize stopping the run. If the Patriots can establish the run, they have a decent shot at a Week 1 upset.
Hit Some Big Plays — The Bengals and other opponents will not respect the Patriots’ passing game until they are given reason to. We saw this a year ago, and with a new offensive philosophy, the team will feature play-action passing and take shots down the field. This is a staple of AVP’s offense.
Due to the leaky offensive line, they may not get many chances to take shots down the field, but they’ll have to capitalize when they do. They have some concepts that will allow them to get some big chunk plays, but like everything else, it all comes down to execution.
Get Consistent Pressure On Burrow — The Bengals have outstanding playmakers on offense. If Chase, Higgins, et al. get time to run their routes, they’re going to get open, and Burrow will find them. The result will be a long day for the defense.
We expect Demarcus Covington’s defense to be more aggressive this season. That means dialing up more pressure from different parts of the field. Sacks are nice, but consistent pressure is the key. They have to force Burrow to unload the ball early and throw off his timing. Keion White, who the Patriots expect to have a big Year 2, is the key here. He has to be a game wrecker on Sunday.
___________
Prediction:
Week 1 Matchups are always among the most difficult to predict because there are so many unknown factors involved. A lot of fluky stuff happens on Week 1, so the Patriots do have a chance to upset Cincinnati, who have been notoriously slow starters the first two weeks of the season in recent years.
However, I think the Bengals are, from top to bottom, a much more talented and better team than the Patriots are right now. They’ll hang around but don’t have enough offense yet to pull this one off. Bengals 24-13
Follow me on Twitter @SteveB7SFG or email me at [email protected]
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PS: I like Baltimore tonight and Philly on Friday…
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A former US Army Special Forces NCO and Officer, Steve has been following the Patriots since their days at Fenway Park. Steve has worked in the film industry and wrote as an Military Editor at SpecialOperations.com, 1945.com as a reporter for the Millbury Daily Voice, Millbury-Sutton Chronicle, and the Grafton News. He's also a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA)
Bengals did get run on last year, but every year is different in the NFL. However, they lost DJ Reader whom was a key guy at DT for the, and as well, a young guy that I heard was to take a NT type role went on IR. Plus theres a few others on IR at DE. Cincy is thin and not big up front on D. That may help NE a lot to run the ball. Bengals have Trent Brown and Orlano Pace at OT, but the backups are both out (Mimms and another guy). So an injury to… Read more »
Bengals have been a slow starting team in recent years. I see Burrow had little in terms of stats in preseason, so I wonder how their coach approaches summer contact and games for their starters(?). Mayo practiced the team hard in pads this summer. More than the BB regime did…. they needed to given the new offensive system to be installed. Perhaps theres some advantage here in terms of conditioning etc. Burrow missed the end of last season and only played 10 of 17 games. He probably could not throw till APril/May(I’m guessing) per surgery. As well, is Jamarr Chase… Read more »