Week 14 Preview: New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals
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The Cardinals present a game the Patriots could win. Their Defense is one of the worst in the league giving up 26.8 points per game (31), allowing 356.2 yards per game, and Expected Points Added (20). The EPA is an advanced metric that measures how a team does on each individual play. Arizona is better on offense, scoring 22 points per game, and accumulating 356.2 yards a game, and their Offensive EPA is ranked 20th. The scoring difference is -57 (27) and a Turnover difference of +1 (13).
How will Bill Belichick and the defense contain Kyler Murray? If allowed to, Murray can run around and buy more time or scramble and shred the defense. What will the defense do to slow down DeAndre Hopkins? They have enough depth at WR that the Patriots will not be able to just double-team Hopkins. When on Offense, how will the Patriots’ o-line handle the blitz-happy Cardinals?
Offense
| STARTER | 2ND | 3RD | 4TH | |
| QB | Kyler Murray | Colt McCoy | Trace McSorley Q | – |
| RB | James Conner | Keaontay Ingram | Corey Clement | Darrel Williams IR |
| WR | DeAndre Hopkins | A.J. Green | Antoine Wesley IR | |
| WR | Marquise Brown | Greg Dortch Q | ||
| WR | Rondale Moore Q | Robbie Anderson | – | |
| TE | Trey McBride | Stephen Anderson | Zach Ertz IR | |
| LT | Josh Jones | D.J. Humphries IR | Joshua Miles IR | – |
| LG | Max Garcia | Rashaad Coward | Cody Ford | Justin Pugh IR |
| C | Billy Price | Sean Harlow | Rodney Hudson IR | – |
| RG | Lecitus Smith | Wyatt Davis | Sean Harlow | Will Hernandez IR |
| RT | Kelvin Beachum | Josh Jones | ||
Quarterback
You need to start with the QB, Kyler Murray. He presents huge problems for the Patriots’ defense. The Patriots have not been able to stop the mobile/running QB. Murray has rushed for 420 yards this year an average of 6.9 a carry and three TDs.
Games Att Comp % YPR Yards/G TD INT Sacks
Murray 10 258 389 66.3 6.1 235.9 14 7 25
McCoy 2 50 71 70.4 6.4 228 1 1 5
Both McCoy and Murray throw the ball at a high rate of completions. This will put a lot of pressure on the Patriots’ secondary.
Offensive Line
The Achilles heal of the Cardinals has been the Offensive line. They just haven’t been healthy. Starting Left Tackle DJ Humphries has been lost for the year. Josh Jones has stepped in for him with 33 yo, 11-year veteran Kelvin Beachum. Backups at both tackle positions are thin. The interior O line is playing all backups. Starters Justin Pugh (LG) Rodney Hudson (C) Will Hernandez (RT) are all on IR. Replacing them are Max Garcia, Billy Price, and Lecitus Smith. You may see Rashaad Coward at LG for Garcia. If the Cards can’t establish a run game, this will make them one-dimensional.
Running Back
In a surprise move, the Cardinals released #2 running back Eno Benjamin in November. This elevated rookie Keaontay Ingram, a big back from USC to the number 2 role. Former Steelers RB James Conner is clearly the #1. He is capable of carrying the team on his back, provided he gets some decent play from the O-line. If the Cards can run the ball it’s going to be a long night Monday for the Pats. So far the running game in Arizona has disappointed. Conner is averaging under 4 yards a carry. He only has 121 carries and 4 TDs. However he has caught 27 passes for 171 yards and another TD.
Wide Receiver
The Cards have great wide receivers in Deandre Hopkins, Marquise Brown, Rondale Moore, AJ Green, and Robbie Anderson. Any of these players would be the #1 receiver on the Pats. The top three have these stats.
Hopkins 49 574 3
Brown 49 531 3
Moore 41 414 1
I think we will see a lot of zone defense by the Patriots’ secondary. This might be a game plan similar to what we saw with Buffalo.
Tight End
Murray lost his binky in Zach Ertz to injury. Rookie, Trey McBride is a former high school basketball player that converted to TE at Colorado State. It will be interesting to see if he can step up and fill the position. Former Patriot Stephen Anderson is the other TE.
Defense
| STARTER | 2ND | 3RD | 4TH | |
| LDE | J.J. Watt | – | – | – |
| NT | Leki Fotu | Trysten Hill | Rashard Lawrence IR | |
| RDE | Zach Allen | Jonathan Ledbetter | – | |
| WLB | Myjai Sanders | Dennis Gardeck | Victor Dimukeje | |
| LILB | Zaven Collins | Ben Niemann | Kamu Grugier- Hill | Nick Vigil IR |
| RILB | Isaiah Simmons | Tanner Vallejo | Ezekiel Turner | – |
| SLB | Markus Golden | Cameron Thomas | Jesse Luketa | |
| LCB | Byron Murphy Jr. Q | Trayvon Mullen | – | |
| SS | Jalen Thompson | Isaiah Simmons | ||
| FS | Budda Baker | Chris Banjo | Charles Washington Q | |
| RCB | Marco Wilson | Antonio Hamilton Q | Christian Matthew | |
Defensive Line
It starts with JJ Watt the 12-year DE. He may be old (33) but he is still a dominant player. The Patriots’ O-line will have problems containing him. Watt has 6.5 sacks on the year. The Cards will move Watt all around the line to take advantage of mismatches. Zach Allen is another formidable pass rusher. The former Boston College DE has chipped in with 4.5 sacks. Leki Fotu is your typical huge Nose Tackle. He stands 6’ 5”, and 335 lbs. If he can control the middle and allow the linebackers to stay clean and make tackles that will shut down the Patriots’ run game. Allen and Watt are a little light for DTs.
Outside Linebackers
On the edge, you have Markus Golden and Victor Dimukeje. They are more like 3-4 outside linebackers. Backups include Myjai Sanders, Cameron Thomas, Dennis Gardeck, and rookie Jesse Luketa. Golden is a very disruptive edge rusher and is 2nd to Watt with 38 QB pressures.
Inside Linebackers
Zaven Collins and Isaiah Simmons are the starters. Collins is 2nd on the team with 74 tackles and Simmons is 4th with 60. The D line funnels the run game into the middle for the Inside Linebackers to make the tackle. I liked Collins when he came out in the draft in 2021, as he was selected one pick after Mac Jones. He has that prototypical size for an inside linebacker at 6’ 5”, 260 Lbs. Former Patriot Kamu Grugier–Hill, is a leader on their special teams.
Cornerback
Byron Murphy and Marco Wilson are the starters. Murphy as of this writing was listed as Questionable. Antonio Hamilton would replace Murphy if he can’t go. The secondary overall is ranked 20th in the league.
Safety
Budda Baker is an outstanding safety. The 6th year player is a 2-time 1st team All-Pro, 2nd team All-Pro, and 4x Pro Bowl player. He leads the team with 90 tackles. Jalen Thompson is no slouch either. He has 66 tackles for third on the team. Overall, the defense does not produce a lot of turnovers as they have 7 INT and 7 fumble recoveries on the season. For the season they are a plus 1 in the turnover department.
Specialist
| STARTER | 2ND | 3RD | 4TH | |
| PK | Matt Prater | – | – | – |
| P | Andy Lee | – | – | – |
| H | Andy Lee | – | – | – |
| PR | Greg Dortch Q | Rondale Moore Q | – | – |
| LS | Aaron Brewer |
Matt Prater has been inconsistent. He missed some time with a hip injury. Andy Lee is the 19th-ranked punter in the league. Both Greg Dortch and Rondale Moore were listed as Questionable in the Thursday Injury Report.
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