PATRIOTS DRAFT: No Guarantees When it Comes to Quarterbacks

Ian Logue

3 years ago at 9:32 am ET

Posted Under: 2021 Patriots Draft

David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

It’s never a great thing when you head into an NFL Draft in dire need of a quarterback and given the recent history at that position, it’s definitely an inexact science.

Since most quarterbacks typically take a couple (or more) seasons to potentially develop into something special, I took some time to look at quarterbacks over the course of three drafts from 2016 thru 2018 and the results are fairly depressing.

As we know, the biggest problem in New England is the fact the Patriots got caught in-between due to the abrupt departure of Tom Brady, leaving them in a tough spot again this year in the event they’re not able to secure a serviceable quarterback through free agency. Even then, we saw what happened over the course of last season with Cam Newton, so someone else’s castoff may not necessarily guarantee a winning season.

From there, it’s going to likely be somewhat of a crapshoot. Going back over a three-year span from 2016-2018, those drafts produced one real true superstar, a handful of solid starters, a couple of good players and a few guys who filled in for injured players but don’t appear to be starters.

Here’s a quick look back beginning at 2018 and going back to 2016. Again, since it usually takes a few seasons, it’s safe to say that here in 2021, we know about all we need to know about all of these players at this point.

If you look at the list below, here’s how they’ve been color-coded:

Purple – Proven Elite Difference-Maker Players
Red – Excellent, playoff-caliber QBs
Blue – Decent, Competitive Starters (When Healthy)
Green – Decent Back-up

QUARTERBACKS TAKEN FROM 2016-2018

2018 Notable Undrafted
Kyle Allen – Panthers
John Wolford – Jets

2017 Notable Undrafted
Taysom Hill – Packers
P.J. Walker – Indianapolis
Nick Mullens – 49ers

2016 Notable Undrafted
Joe Callahan – Packers

Man…I don’t want to be a Bears fan. Looking at that 2017 draft has got to be absolutely killing them.

And yes, I’ve got Deshaun Watson listed in the same category as some that aren’t at his level. He’s a really terrific player, but he’s not yet at the level of Mahomes, who has been a proven Super Bowl-winning player who has already had a lot of postseason success in his young career. Watson is just above his peers but hasn’t taken that next step just yet. He’s slightly ahead but not enough to create another category – at least not for the sake of this exercise.

Either way, that’s not the point. The point is there are still very few exceptional QBs out of three years worth of drafts and the talent pool then drops off considerably. The rest are really just average and some are simply back-ups.

Again, Mahomes is the one notable name, while the rest in red are competitive enough to get you to the postseason but from there, it’s tough to guess how it will go. That’s six in three years, and the jury is still out on potentially even half of those (Prescott, Goff, Jackson).

That’s going to be the problem the Patriots are faced with. Snagging a good quarterback who can win in the NFL is tough, and finding another great one is like being struck by lightning.

Then again, while lightning rarely strikes twice, it does happen. The Patriots will just have to hope they have a little luck on their side in the months ahead. They certainly need it.