Patriots at Jets: In-Depth Team Stats, Odds, TV Info & Prediction

John Morgan
December 27, 2015 at 11:00 am ET

In one of only three NFL Week 16 games between two teams with winning records, the 12-2 New England Patriots take on the 9-5 New York Jets in a game with playoff implications for both teams. The Patriots have already won the AFC East title (for the seventh consecutive season) and earned a first round bye. The Pats can clinch the number one seed and home field throughout the conference playoffs with a win over their arch rivals (or with a loss by Cincinnati). The Jets have the same record as Pittsburgh and Kansas City but need help because they would lose tiebreakers to the Steelers or Chiefs. Gang Green will be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss combined with wins by the Broncos, Steelers and Chiefs. The Jets would also be eliminated from the number five seed with either a loss plus a Pittsburgh win, or a loss plus victories by the Broncos and Chiefs.

NFL Week 16 Playoff Picture with Clinching and Elimination Scenarios

 

Who: 12-2 New England Patriots vs 9-5 New York Jets

When: Sunday, December 27 at 1:00 pm ET

Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford NJ

Television: CBS; announcers: Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts

NFL Week 16 TV Info: Patriots-Jets, Panthers-Falcons Receive Primary Early Game Broadcast Distribution

Week 16 NFL Maps

Weather: 62° (‘feels like’ 60°); cloudy skies and 73% humidity, with 15% chance of rain and a breeze of 9-13 mph.

Odds: The Patriots opened up as 3-point favorites in early ‘look ahead” odds published ten days ago. New England was installed as a 3½-point favorite when all the venues listed their initial lines at the conclusion of last Sunday afternoon’s games. The spread soon moved up to 3½ but within 24 hours slipped back to three, where it steadily remained throughout the week. Suddenly on Sunday morning a large amount of money was placed on New York plus the points, causing betting parlors to drop the line to two points in most places – with some as low as 1½. The point total has dropped slightly from 46½ to 45½, with a few betting parlors listing the over/under at 46. As always the Money Line varies a bit from venue to venue; a typical ML lists New England at -150 and the Jets at +130.

Head-to-Head Series Record: The two clubs have met 113 times since the two franchises began play in 1960. The Patriots lead the series 59-53-1, including two out of three wins in the post-season. New England has won the last three contests and eight of the last nine; since a 10-3 loss when Mo Lewis knocked Drew Bledsoe out of the game on September 23, 2001, the Patriots are 23-7 versus the Jets.

 

This game is a compelling matchup between an excellent offense versus a great defense. The Jets lead the league in Red Zone defense, first downs allowed and opponent completion percentage, and rank among the best in the league in nearly every defensive statistical category. Despite all the injuries to the Patriots, this should be a very entertaining game for football fans everywhere, regardless of any rooting interest.

Here is a look at how the two teams compare statistically; the numbers reflect an average per game (or per play), rather than aggregate totals. Per-game and per-play stats are used rather than gross totals because that makes the rankings more meaningful, and because they provide a better context in regards to what to expect in any given game. Numbers in green indicate a top-ten ranking while underlined green is top-five; red indicates a bottom-ten ranking and underlined red is bottom-five.

 

New England Patriots Offense versus New York Jets Defense

Scoring per Game: Patriots 31.1 (3rd); Jets 19.4 (8th)

Yardage per Game: Patriots 394 (4th); Jets 323 (5th)

First Downs per Game: Patriots 22.9 (3rd); Jets 16.9 (1st)

Yards per Play: Patriots 5.9 (6th); Jets 5.1 (5th)

Yards per Drive: Patriots 33.9 (8th); Jets 26.5 (3rd)

Points per Drive: Patriots 2.63 (2nd); Jets 1.47 (4th)

Drive Success Rate: Patriots .737 (3rd); Jets .627 (1st)

Points per Play: Patriots .462 (3rd); Jets .307 (8th)

Touchdowns per Game: Patriots 3.5 (3rd); Jets 2.1 (5th)

Red Zone Touchdowns per Game: Patriots 2.7 (1st); Jets 0.8 (1st)

Red Zone TD Percentage: Patriots 66.7% (2nd); Jets 32.4% (1st)

Plays per Game: Patriots 67.2 (8th); Jets 63.2 (12th)

Third Down Conversions per Game: Patriots 5.9 (6th); Jets 4.8 (9th)

Third Down Percentage: Patriots 43.5% (5th); Jets 33.0% (3rd)

Punts per Score: Patriots 0.8 (4th); Jets 1.5 (4th)

Punts per Game: Patriots 4.43 (10th); Jets 5.50 (4th)

Rushing Yards: Patriots 90.8 (28th); Jets 82.8 (2nd)

Yards per Carry: Patriots 3.81 (25th); Jets 3.76 (5th)

Passing Yards: Patriots 303 (2nd); Jets 240 (13th)

Yards per Pass Attempt: Patriots 7.8 (5th); Jets 6.7 (4th)

Completion Percentage: Patriots 64.4% (11th); Jets 55.9% (1st)

Passer Rating: Patriots 104.0 (4th); Jets 78.3 (4th)

TD Passes/Picks: Patriots +29 (1st), 35/6; Jets -7 (8th), 24/17

Complete Passes per Game: Patriots 26.4 (3rd); Jets 21.6 (11th)

Incomplete Passes per Game: Patriots 14.6 (25th); Jets 17.1 (1st)

Quarterback Sacks per Game: Patriots 2.4 (16th); Jets 2.5 (11th)

Sack Yardage Lost per Game: Patriots 14.4 (12th); Jets 19.1 (4th)

 

New York Jets Offense versus New England Patriots Defense

Scoring: Jets 24.6 (11th); Patriots 19.2 (6th)

Yardage: Jets 371 (10th); Patriots 326 (6th)

First Downs: Jets 20.7 (12th); Patriots 18.5 (7th)

Yards per Play: Jets 5.5 (14th); Patriots 5.1 (4th)

Yards per Drive: Jets 29.9 (24th); Patriots 27.7 (5th)

Points per Drive: Jets 2.03 (12th); Patriots 1.52 (5th)

Drive Success Rate: Jets .689 (17th); Patriots .657 (6th)

Points per Play: Jets .362 (14th); Patriots .299 (6th)

Touchdowns per Game: Jets 2.8 (13th); Patriots 2.2 (9th)

Red Zone Touchdowns per Game: Jets 2.3 (5th); Patriots 1.4 (6th)

Red Zone TD Percentage: Jets 66.7% (2nd); Patriots 57.1% (17th)

Plays per Game: Jets 67.9 (5th); Patriots 64.3 (18th)

Third Down Conversions per Game: Jets 6.1 (3rd); Patriots 5.1 (14th)

Third Down Conversion Percentage: Jets 41.5% (11th); Patriots 36.4% (10th)

Punts per Score: Jets 1.1 (13th); Patriots 1.5 (3rd)

Punts per Game: Jets 5.1 (20th); Patriots 5.4 (5th)

Rushing Yards: Jets 114.5 (11th); Patriots 95.8 (10th)

Yards per Carry: Jets 3.97 (15th); Patriots 3.99 (12th)

Passing Yards: Jets 257 (10th); Patriots 230 (8th)

Yards per Pass Attempt: Jets 7.0 (20th); Patriots 6.9 (9th)

Completion Percentage: Jets 60.8% (23rd); Patriots 60.0% (8th)

Passer Rating: Jets 89.5 (18th); Patriots 83.3 (9th)

TD Passes/Picks: Jets +15 (12th), 28/13; Patriots -7 (9th), 19/12

Complete Passes per Game: Jets 22.9 (14th); Patriots 22.1 (13th)

Incomplete Passes per Game: Jets 14.7 (26th); Patriots 14.8 (7th)

Quarterback Sacks per Game: Jets 1.4 (2nd); Patriots 3.4 (1st)

Sack Yardage Lost: Jets 7.1 (1st); Patriots 24.2 (1st)

 

Turnovers

Patriot Giveaways: 0.9 (2nd); Jet Takeaways: 2.0 (3rd)

Jet Giveaways: 1.4 (14th); Patriot Takeaways: 1.4 (16th)

 

Penalties

Penalties per Game: Patriots 6.3 (6th); Jets 6.0 (5th)

Penalty Yards per Game: Patriots 58.0 (16th); Jets 50.5 (4th)

Opponent Penalties per Game: Patriots 6.9 (17th); Jets 6.1 (30th)

Opponent Penalty Yards per Game: Patriots 62.9 (12th); Jets 51.1 (27th)

 

Football Outsiders Statistics and Rankings

Team Efficiency: Weighted DVOA: Patriots 23.6% (6th); Jets 8.1% (10th)

Team Efficiency: Offense DVOA: Patriots 18.0% (4th); Jets 1.1% (14th)

Team Efficiency: Defense DVOA: Patriots -6.2% (10th); Jets -12.0% (6th)

Special Teams DVOA: Patriots 4.0% (3rd); Jets -3.3% (27th)

 

Considering the weapons (or lack thereof) on offense for the Patriots at this juncture and the defensive prowess of the Jets, it would not surprise me in the least if New York wins this game. However, I have a gut feeling that the New England defense will come up with some critical plays to eek out a close, hard fought victory for the Patriots.

NFL Week 16 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread: Patriots 20, Jets 16

 



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