NFL Week 15 Odds: Patriots 14-point favorite after early line movement
You would have done well if you simply bet the under in every game last week, as 12 games went under and only four went over the point total. Vegas had a bit of a rough week due to a very large percentage of the action going with the Patriots in their game at Houston on Sunday night.
Prior to the Patriots dropping its second straight game to temporarily put them in the No. 3 position, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook had them as the massive 5/2 favorites (Bet $100 to win $250) to win the Super Bowl. After the loss, they fell into a tie with the undefeated Panthers at 4/1 odds. On Monday, with New England back in the drivers seat for home field advantage and with tight end Rob Gronkowski back in action, the Westgate dropped them back down to 7/2 as the lone favorite.
Bettors all had a feeling that the Patriots wouldn’t lose three straight games and they came strong on them laying -3 all the way up to -4.5. William Hill sports books had 85 percent of the tickets written on the game on them as well as 89 percent of the overall cash wagered, which was by far the most one sided action of the day and took a big chunk of the profit the sports books had tucked away after grinding out the first 13 games.
Below is a listing of all sixteen NFL Week 15 lines, with odds as of early Tuesday morning, opening lines from early Sunday evening, early advanced ‘look-ahead’ lines from last Thursday afternoon, and prop bet odds that were available last April after the NFL 2015 schedule was initially published.
6-7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 5-8 St. Louis Rams (pk, 41)
Thursday Dec 17 at 8:25 pm ET on NFLN; Jim Nantz, Phil Simms
Tue 12/15: Pick’em; over/under 41
Sun 12/13 open: Bucs -2; o/u 41
Thur 12/10 look-ahead: Rams -1
April 25: Rams favored by 8
Between St. Louis’ 31st-ranked offense (16.2 points per game) and Tampa not being able to do much of anything last week against the NFL’s worst defense (New Orleans, 30.5 ppg), the under may be the call here. Buc WR Vincent Jackson is out with a sprained MCL, and the Rams are 10-3 on the under this year.
8-5 New York Jets at 4-9 Dallas Cowboys (+3, 42)
Saturday Dec 19 at 8:25 pm ET on NFLN; Jim Nantz, Phil Simms
Tue 12/15: Jets -3; over/under 42
Sun 12/13 open: Jets -3; o/u 42
Thur 12/10 look-ahead: Jets -3
April 25: Cowboys -7½
Which team has a better chance to make the playoffs: the nine-loss Cowboys who are guaranteed of having a losing season but are still in contention in the NFC East, or the 8-5 Jets, who watch Kansas City and Pittsburgh win week after week to spoil their playoff hopes?
5-8 Chicago Bears at 8-5 Minnesota Vikings (-5, 43)
Sunday Dec 20 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Kevin Burkhardt, John Lynch
Tue 12/15: Vikings -5; over/under 43
Sun 12/13 open: Vikings -4; o/u 43
Thur 12/10 look-ahead: Vikings -4
April 25: Vikings -2½
Since the Bears are 1-6 at home but 4-2 on the road, should we re-calculate the usual three points for the home team? People still don’t believe in Minnesota (10-3 ATS) or their defense (10-2-1 on unders), but the Vikings pretty much locked up a playoff spot after Tampa Bay and Atlanta lost. Adrian Peterson (1,251 yards rushing, 9 rushing touchdowns, 61 rushing first downs – all NFL bests) gets three extra days of rest to go against a Chicago rushing defense that ranks 30th in yards per carry (4.7) and 26th in yards per game (126).
6-7 Atlanta Falcons at 5-8 Jacksonville Jaguars (-3, 48½)
Sunday Dec 20 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Dick Stockton, David Diehl
Tue 12/15: Jaguars -3; over/under 48½
Sun 12/13 open: Jaguars -3½, over/under 47
Thur 12/10 look-ahead: pick’em
April 25: Falcons -2
Atlanta is allowing 26.3 points per game over the last four weeks since their bye and has lost six in a row. The point total in Jacksonville games over the last three weeks has been 67, 81 and 56. This is Bill Polian’s legacy from his time abusing power on the NFL’s competition committee.
6-7 Houston Texans at 6-7 Indianapolis Colts
(no line due to uncertainty with both team’s quarterbacks)
Sunday Dec 20 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Greg Gumbel, Trent Green
Tue 12/15: no line, no point total
Sun 12/13 open: no line, no point total
Thur 12/10 look-ahead: no line
April 25: Colts -5
T.J. Yates will presumably start at QB for Houston in place of a concussed Brian Hoyer, but right now nobody seems to know if Indy will start Andrew Luck, Matt Hasselbeck or Charlie Whitehurst. Winner climbs to .500 and is in the driver’s seat to win the AFC South – and then lose to either the Steelers or Chiefs in the first round of the playoffs.
8-5 Kansas City Chiefs at 4-9 Baltimore Ravens (+7½, 42½)
Sunday Dec 20 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Kevin Harlan, Rich Gannon
Tue 12/15: Chiefs -7½, over/under 42½
Sun 12/13 open: Chiefs -7; over/under 43
Thur 12/10 look-ahead: Chiefs -5
April 25: Ravens -3½
Jimmy Clausen played better than I thought he would, but the depleted Ravens still lost by 29 points. KC has won seven in a row and last week’s seven point win in the rain was the smallest margin of victory during that streak.
6-7 Buffalo Bills at 6-7 Washington Redskins (pk, 44)
Sunday Dec 20 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston
Tue 12/15: pick’em; over/under 44
Sun 12/13 open: Washington -1; o/u 44
Thur 12/10 look-ahead: Bills -1
April 25: Washington -2½
Tyrod Taylor had his streak of pass attempts without an interception snapped at 222 last week, but Washington ranks 22nd with only nine picks this year. The two teams own the same record, but only the Skins have a shot at the playoffs. Meanwhile Washington PR people were caught posting on the wrong twitter account, exposing the fact that a supposedly fan-supported group backing the Redskins name is actually operated by the team.
3-10 Tennessee Titans at 11-2 New England Patriots (-14, 46½)
Sunday Dec 20 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS; Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts
Tue 12/15: Patriots -14; over/under 46½
Sun 12/13 open: Patriots -12½; o/u 46½
Thur 12/10 look-ahead: Patriots -10
April 25: Patriots -10½
Tennessee just gave up 183 rushing yards (while gaining just 24 yards on the ground themselves), so normally you would think that New England’s game plan would be to just run, run and run some more. Problem for the Patriots is that they are running out of running backs, so that may not be feasible. Derrick Morgan is out for the remainder of the season, and the Titans are front-runners for the number one pick in the 2016 NFL Draft after picking second last year.
13-0 Carolina Panthers at 6-7 New York Giants (+6½, 49)
Sunday Dec 20 at 1:00 pm ET on FOX; Joe Buck, Troy Aikman
Tue 12/15: Panthers -6½; over/under 49
Sun 12/13 open: Panthers -5; o/u 48½
Thur 12/10 look-ahead: Panthers -3½
April 25: Giants -2
New York plays at home, but since they have a short week after playing at Miami on Monday night that is a wash. Carolina is another team that the public still underestimates; the Panthers are 10-3 ATS. In other news the Giants-Vikings game in Week 16 will be flexed to Sunday night.
3-10 Cleveland Browns at 8-5 Seattle Seahawks (-14½, 43)
Sunday Dec 20 at 4:05 pm ET on FOX; Thom Brennaman, Charles Davis
Tue 12/15: Seahawks -14½; over/under 43
Sun 12/13 open: Seahawks -14
Thur 12/10 look-ahead: Seahawks -13½
April 25: Seahawks -10½
Seattle has won four in a row and in the last two weeks they have outscored opponents 73-13. RB Thomas Rawls joins RB Marshawn Lynch and TE Jimmy Graham on the sideline, but since their Week 9 bye the Seahawks have scored no less than 29 points and have averaged 34.6 points per game. Cleveland is allowing 27.5 points per game (only New Orleans has given up more), and the Browns will have to attempt to keep pace without WR Brian Hartline (broken collarbone).
9-4 Green Bay Packers at 6-7 Oakland Raiders (+3, 46½)
Sunday Dec 20 at 4:05 pm ET on FOX; Chris Myers, Ronde Barber
Tue 12/15: Packers -3; over/under 46½
Sun 12/13 open: Packers -2½; o/u 45½
Thur 12/10 look-ahead: Packers -3
April 25: Packers -7
Head coach Mike McCarthy took over the play-calling duties on offense, and the Packers ran the ball 42 times for 233 yards. Oakland’s offense didn’t get much done in their victory over Denver, but the Bronco defense has a habit of doing that to teams; I would expect more from Derek Carr and company this week.
5-8 Miami Dolphins at 3-10 San Diego Chargers (pk, 45½)
Sunday Dec 20 at 4:25 pm ET on CBS; Andrew Catalon, Steve Beuerlein
Tue 12/15: pick’em; over/under 45½
Sun 12/13 open: Chargers -1; o/u 45½
Thur 12/10 look-ahead: Chargers -1
April 25: Chargers -3
Interestingly the line moved from Chargers -1 to a pick’em after Miami lost to at home to the Giants on Monday night. The Dolphins have to travel cross-country on a short week to face a San Diego team that has scored just three points in three of the four games since their Week 10 bye.
10-3 Denver Broncos at 8-5 Pittsburgh Steelers (-6, 44½)
Sunday Dec 20 at 4:25 pm ET on CBS; Jim Nantz, Phil Simms
Tue 12/15: Steelers -6; over/under 44½
Sun 12/13 open: Steelers -6; o/u 45½
Thur 12/10 look-ahead: Steelers -4½
April 25: Steelers -1
Remember how the Denver media was proclaiming that the Broncos were tough and we may as well hand them the Lombardi after they ran for 170 yards against the Bears and 179 against the Patriots? After rushing for 34 yards on 21 carries Sunday, it is time to pump the brakes on that idea; Denver has now gone 23 consecutive offensive possessions without a touchdown. Perhaps it had more to do with the Bears being the Bears, and New England being without Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower in that game.
10-3 Cincinnati Bengals at 4-9 San Francisco 49ers (+4, 40½)
Sunday Dec 20 at 4:25 pm ET on CBS; Spero Dedes, Solomon Wilcots
Tue 12/15: Bengals -4; over/under 40½
Sun 12/13 open: Bengals -3½; o/u 42
Thur 12/10 look-ahead: Bengals -7
April 25: Niners -3
Andy Dalton‘s injury has moved the line down by a field goal, and the total down by a point and a half. TE Tyler Eifert (concussion) may not be available as well, but unless Cincy is looking ahead to their Week 16 game at Denver the Bengals shouldn’t have any trouble with the Niners.
11-2 Arizona Cardinals at 6-7 Philadelphia Eagles (+3½, 50½)
Sunday Dec 20 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC; Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth
Tue 12/15: Cardinals -3½; over/under 50½
Sun 12/13 open: Cardinals -3½; o/u 50½
Thur 12/10 look-ahead: Cardinals -3½
April 25: Eagles -1½
Left for dead two weeks ago and the city calling for Chip Kelly’s head after giving up 45 points in each of two losses to the Bucs and Lions, Philly has risen from the ashes and is now tied with Washington for the lead in the NFC East. Arizona will be coming off three extra days to rest and prepare for this game.
4-9 Detroit Lions at 5-8 New Orleans Saints (-3, 51)
Monday Dec 21 at 8:30 pm ET on ESPN; Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden
Tue 12/15: Saints -3; over/under 51
Sun 12/13 open: Saints -2½; o/u 50
Thur 12/10 look-ahead: Saints -1½
April 25: pick’em
For the fifth time in their last seven games the Lions were unable to score at least twenty points. If they can’t score that much against the Saints then it may be time to blow up Detroit’s offense and start all over.
Posted Under: Patriots Commentary
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