Eagles at Patriots – Complete Team Stats, Odds & Prediction

John Morgan
December 6, 2015 at 1:00 pm ET

The 10-1 New England Patriots are back home this week to face the 4-7 Philadelphia Eagles in a rematch of Super Bowl 39. The Patriots need a win to maintain their grasp on the number one seed in the AFC, while the Eagles are seeking to end a three-game skid and stay close in the woeful NFC East.

 

When: Sunday, December 6 at 4:25 pm ET

Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough MA

Television: FOX; announcers: Thom Brenneman, Charles Davis and Tony Siragusa

Weather: Forecast is for clear skies and temperature in the mid-forties; zero percent chance of precipitation and a slight breeze of about 6 mph.

Odds: The Patriots opened as point favorites in early look-ahead lines a week ago Thursday, prior to last week’s games. After Philadelphia surrendered 45 points for the second consecutive week, the initial line was set at 13 points after Sunday’s Week 12 games. It quickly dropped down to 9½ points based on injuries to Rob Gronkowski and Dont’a Hightower, inched up to ten points on Tuesday and has slowly descended since then: to nine points and then on Saturday, and then another half point to eight points on Sunday. The point total has remained steady at 49, with a few venues at 48½. Typical money lines have the Patriots -400 and the Eagles +320 as of Sunday morning.

Head-to-Head Series Record: The series is tied 6-6, but the Patriots have won all four meetings since Bill Belichick became the team’s head coach. The Pats beat the Eagles 24-21 to win the Super Bowl following the 2004 season, and came from behind in the fourth quarter in 2007 in Foxborough to win 31-28. Their last meeting was in 2011 in Philly when Vince Young threw for 400 yards but Tom Brady threw three touchdowns, BenJarvus Green-Ellis rushed for two more, and the Patriots won 38-20.

 

The Patriots can clinch a playoff spot today with either a win plus a loss by either the Chiefs or the Steelers; they can also clinch a playoff spot and the AFC East title if the Jets lose to the Giants. Since the beginning of the 2003 season New England has lost consecutive games just four times (the last being in 2012), winning more than ninety percent of those games (38-4). Since 2001 the Patriots have the best record in the NFL in the month of December, posting a .867 winning percentage and 52-8 record.

 

Here is a look at how the two teams compare statistically; the numbers reflect an average per game (or per play), rather than aggregate totals. Per-game and per-play stats are used rather than gross totals because that makes the rankings more meaningful, considering some NFL teams have played a different number of games, and because they provide a better context in regards to what to expect in any given game. Numbers in green indicate a top-ten ranking.

 

New England Patriots Offense versus Philadelphia Eagles Defense

Scoring: Patriots 31.5 (2nd); Eagles 24.9 (23rd)

Yardage: Patriots 402 (2nd); Eagles 380 (25th)

First Downs: Patriots 23.5 (1st); Eagles 21.5 (25th)

Yards per Play: Patriots 6.1 (3rd); Eagles 5.5 (16th)

Yards per Drive: Patriots 35.6 (5th); Eagles 31.4 (14th)

Points per Drive: Patriots 2.78 (1st); Eagles 1.98 (20th)

Drive Success Rate: Patriots .751 (2nd); Eagles .699 (16th)

Points per Play: Patriots .477 (2nd); Eagles .359 (16th)

Touchdowns: Patriots 3.5 (2nd); Eagles 2.8 (22nd)

Red Zone Touchdowns: Patriots 2.7 (1st); Eagles 2.5 (30th)

Red Zone TD Percentage: Patriots 65.2% (4th); Eagles 67.5% (31st)

Plays per Game: Patriots 66.2 (10th); Eagles 69.5 (32nd)

Third Down Conversions: Patriots 5.6 (9th); Eagles 6.0 (28th)

Third Down Percentage: Patriots 43.7% (6th); Eagles 42.6% (27th)

Punts per Score: Patriots 0.7 (2nd); Eagles 1.2 (13th)

Rushing Yards: Patriots 87.2 (29th); Eagles 126.6 (27th)

Yards per Rush: Patriots 3.81 (24th); Eagles 4.35 (25th)

Passing Yards: Patriots 315 (1st); Eagles 253 (20th)

Yards per Pass Attempt: Patriots 8.0 (5th); Eagles 7.1 (13th)

Completion Percentage: Patriots 65.2% (8th); Eagles 64.6 (21st)

Passer Rating: Patriots 106.7 (1st); Eagles 93.4 (20th)

TD Passes/Picks: Patriots +24 (1st), 28/4; Eagles -13 (21st), 25/12

Complete Passes: Patriots 26.7 (3rd); Eagles 24.5 (26th)

Incomplete Passes: Patriots 14.3 (22nd); Eagles 13.5 (14th)

Quarterback Sacks: Patriots 2.3 (16th); Eagles 2.4 (14th)

Sack Yardage Lost: Patriots 12.2 (12th); Eagles 16.2 (12th)

 

Philadelphia Eagles Offense versus New England Patriots Defense

Scoring: Eagles 22.1 (20th); Patriots 19.3 (5th)

Yardage: Eagles 362 (12th); Patriots 350 (16th)

First Downs: Eagles 21.7 (7th); Patriots 20.2 (17th)

Yards per Play: Eagles 5.2 (28th); Patriots 5.3 (10th)

Yards per Drive: Eagles 29.3 (26th); Patriots 30.3 (10th)

Points per Drive: Eagles 1.62 (27th); Patriots 1.66 (8th)

Drive Success Rate: Eagles .679 (24th); Patriots .683 (9th)

Points per Play: Eagles .317 (26th); Patriots .290 (4th)

Touchdowns: Eagles 2.5 (16th); Patriots 2.2 (7th)

Red Zone Touchdowns: Eagles 1.4 (23rd); Patriots 1.5 (9th)

Red Zone TD Percentage: Eagles 50% (22nd); Patriots 54.8% (16th)

Plays per Game: Eagles 69.7 (2nd); Patriots 66.4 (24th)

Third Down Conversions: Eagles 4.8 (18th); Patriots 5.4 (18th)

Third Down Percentage: Eagles 34.2% (27th); Patriots 38.1% (14th)

Punts per Score: Eagles 1.4 (26th); Patriots 1.4 (5th)

Rushing Yards: Eagles 114.5 (12th); Patriots 97.0 (11th)

Yards per Rush: Eagles 4.01 (17th); Patriots 4.10 (17th)

Passing Yards: Eagles 247 (16th); Patriots 253 (19th)

Yards per Pass Attempt: Eagles 6.8 (26th); Patriots 6.9 (10th)

Completion Percentage: Eagles 64.1% (14th); Patriots 60.0% (8th)

Passer Rating: Eagles 82.0 (28th); Patriots 82.8 (8th)

TD Passes/Picks: Eagles +1 (28th), 15/14; Patriots -5 (8th), 15/10

Complete Passes: Eagles 24.8 (8th); Patriots 23.7 (23rd)

Incomplete Passes: Eagles 13.9 (21st); Patriots 15.8 (4th)

Quarterback Sacks: Eagles 2.5 (22nd); Patriots 3.2 (2nd)

Sack Yardage Lost: Eagles 17.8 (24th); Patriots 21.0 (1st)

 

Turnovers

Patriot Giveaways: 0.8 (2nd);  Eagle Takeaways: 1.9 (4th)

Eagle Giveaways: 1.9 (29th); Patriot Takeaways: 1.4 (19th)

 

Penalties

Penalties: Patriots 6.7 (12th); Eagles 6.8 (16th)

Penalty Yards: Patriots 63.7 (21st); Eagles 52.1 (4th)

Opponent Penalties: Patriots 7.4 (10th); Eagles 8.5 (3rd)

Opponent Penalty Yards: Patriots 65.4 (12th); Eagles 75.3 (4th)

 

Football Outsiders Statistics and Rankings

Team Efficiency: Weighted DVOA: Patriots 28.9% (5th); Eagles -12.2% (24th)

Team Efficiency: Offense DVOA: Patriots 20.3% (2nd); Eagles -13.4% (28th)

Team Efficiency: Defense DVOA: Patriots -2.4% (12th); Eagles -3.7% (11th)

Special Teams DVOA: Patriots 7.9% (1st); Eagles -1.4% (20th)

 

Prediction: Patriots 31, Eagles 17

The Patriots are next to unbeatable at home, and virtually unbeatable in a game following a loss. Even without Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman, Tom Brady should be able to exploit a very vulnerable Philly secondary. The Eagles will be forced to start rookie Eric Rowe at corner after Nolan Carroll was lost due to a broken ankle; whomever he is covering should be in line for plenty of targets today.

 

 



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