Your 2015 Pittsburgh Steelers...

[lillloyd]

So now that THAT mess is over with, anyone ready to talk X’s and O’s?

Quick background: I’m a (non-trash-talking) Pitt fan that drops onto your boards from time to time. When Pitt plays other teams I often do a writeup on their forums – objectively, I hope – to give the other fan base more detail about the Steelers team they’re about to play.

So without further ado…

Question 1: How will the Steelers suspensions and injuries impact Pittsburgh offensively?

We’ve had an odd, awful preseason – it began with our starting kicker being IR’d, and ended when two back of the roster OLinemen were injured badly on the preseason’s last play. In between, our replacement kicker was IR’d, Maurkice Pouncey was IR’d/DR, and Martavis Bryant was suspended.

Overall the offense becomes far less dynamic and explosive without Pouncey, Bell, and Bryant in the lineup. Bell’s value as a pass-catcher is immense – he is arguably the Steeler’s 2nd or 3rd best route runner from the RB position, and routinely turns seemingly innocuous checkdowns into splash plays and 3rd down bailouts. And Bryant’s development over the past year has simply been stunning – he is arguably as physically gifted a player as Pittsburgh has on its team, simultaneously our best deep threat and best red zone option. More than anyone on the roster, he looked like a monster breakout candidate, so it’s brutal to see him piss away the first four games.

RE/the OL: there is a significant dropoff between Pouncey and his backup, Cody Wallace. Pouncey may not be the worldbeater that he’s often made out to be (he often struggles against power DTs – e.g. Brandon Williams in playoffs last year), but he is still a very good center and extremely athletic player. Just as significant: he is also the QB of the line and helps Ben with the protection calls. Wallace is the epitome of the feisty, scrappy backup with some game experience; however he lacks Pouncey’s athleticism, and like Pouncey he can also be overpowered with physical play.

That all said, Pittsburgh isn’t completely punchless without these guys. Ben and AB remains a dynamite combination; Markus Wheaton remains an ascending player who was arguably camp’s second-most improved player behind Bryant; D’Angelo Williams showed decent burst and should be serviceable in Bell’s absence.

The bottom line though is that Pitt should be vastly easier to defend. NE can now roll double coverage to AB worry-free (he’ll still get his – he’s that good – but you can minimize the damage), and make Pitt prove that Wheaton is a viable threat. NE can also safely ignore Pitt’s new WR3, which will be some combination of Darius Heyward-Bey (ugh) and a very raw rookie (Sammie Coates). They can worry a lot less about Williams leaking out of the backfield than they would with Bell. And they can roll their safeties up regularly for run support, knowing Bryant is not around to abuse the DBs deep.

If I were NE, I would regularly challenge Wallace and the interior of the Pitt OL—Wallace will be the weak link, but DeCastro and Foster can have trouble with powerful inside pass rushers as well. It could be that Easley (and maybe Malcolm Brown – I confess I don’t know how he’s progressing?) can get a significant push on their own….But I’d also challenge them to consistently recognize and react to stunts (since Pouncey is out and unavailable to help with the line calls). I saw a devastating stunt in a recent NE preseason game where Easley pushed the guard back several yards while Collins looped inside, resulting in a crushing hit on the QB…that’s precisely the kind of thing that could give Pittsburgh fits.

Defensive writeup to be added shortly…

lillloyd

 

[lillloyd]

Question 2: Is Pittsburgh’s defense really that bad?

Yup.

Moving on…


Question 3: Why exactly is it so bad when they’ve invested so many high round picks over the past 3 years in the defense?

It’s a combination of inexperience, a new defensive scheme, a tendency towards overly aggressive/undisciplined play, and suspect talent at the key positions.

Pittsburgh doesn’t exactly lack for talent per se on defense. Cameron Heyward is a stud 3-4 DE, and Stephon Tuitt looks like he’ll be a monster bookend for years to come (although Tuitt is dinged and may not play). There is talent and depth at ILB (Timmons, Shazier), and we’ve invested heavily all across the linebacking core with 1st round picks. I actually don’t think the CB situation is as bad as advertised – they may have a bunch of average corners at best IMO, but CB isn’t their biggest issue.

The biggest issue with the defense IMO is recognition and football IQ – players routinely break down in their assignments, either due to poor recognition, poor understanding of the defense, or pure over-aggressiveness. Shamarko Thomas – the heir apparent to Troy P, who the Steelers traded up to grab a couple of years ago – is the most egregious offender here. He has been caught out of position on at least two TD passes this preseason, and I’m starting to doubt whether he has the between-the-ears component required to play safety in the NFL. Jarvis Jones is another – several times a game he crashes inside and vacates containment. Shazier is a whirlwind, but lacks ballast and can be blown out of plays if OLinemen reach the 2nd level. Put these things together, and there are frequent, major gaps each game that an offense can easily exploit.

[EDIT: As of Sunday, Shamarko Thomas is benched and Will Allen is Thursday’s starting strong safety. Allen is a savvy veteran...with none of Thomas’ speed or athleticism.]

Pitt also has a new D Coordinator (Keith Butler), and they seem intent on playing a new scheme that involves more push upfield from the DL on pass rushing downs, and more Cover 2 on the back end. The problem is that Thomas and the free safety, Mike Mitchell, have only played a handful of downs together this preseason, and in any event seem miles away from having the savvy and communication level needed to successfully execute the Cover 2. This issue extends to the ILBs, who have to quickly determine if they have to sprint back to get adequate depth in a cover 2…I’ve noticed several occasions this preseason where the ILBs have sprinted back only to get gashed by a delayed handoff or draw. I’m concerned that Pitt simply lacks the veteran smarts required to run the Cover 2 at this time.

Finally, I fear that Pittsburgh may simply not be very good at safety or OLB. James Harrison had a great camp and seems to have found the fountain of youth, but it’s not a good sign that he is clearly still Pittsburgh’s best pass rusher…how long until he breaks down? Jarvis Jones flashes but is undisciplined; Arthur Moats is mostly a journeyman on the other side, and Bud Dupree is a year away (at least). And aside from a single nice season in Carolina, Mitchell is almost as much an unproven commodity at safety as Thomas.

One last note re/ the defense: it’s worth monitoring the conditions of starters Lawrence Timmons, Stephon Tuitt, and Mike Mitchell in the days leading up to the game. All three were dinged to varying degrees over the last couple of weeks of the preseason. It would not be surprising to me if any of these guys were to miss the game, or at least be significantly limited within it; Timmons is really the guy to watch here as he makes all of the defensive calls. Pitt also added a 7th DLineman Sunday--a possible indicator that Tuitt will not be able to go.

Bottom line: it will not take much in the way of scheme or talent for New England to exploit the Pittsburgh defense. I know NE’s offense has struggled somewhat in the preseason, and I know there have been some concerns on this board about NE’s talent and depth at wideout and RB…but frankly it just won’t take much to confuse our defense badly (and repeatedly). Against less cerebral quarterbacks and coaches, we might be okay…I really doubt this will be the case against Brady and BB.

 

[lillloyd]

And finally:

Question 4: Any way you can imagine Pittsburgh pulling off the upset?

Not really. The hope would be that New England’s preseason offensive malaise extends into the first game (not such an incredible longshot actually – NE does frequently start the regular season a bit slowly), and that somehow Pitt’s D can correct its assignment issues in the few days leading up to the game. Pittsburgh’s OL would have to hold up on the interior, and Ben and AB would need MVP-type games. Pitt would have to suffer zero injuries, as they are pencil-thin now at several positions. And Pittsburgh would have to do enough early to keep the crowd from working NE into a frenzy.

Is it possible? Sure….anything is possible. Pitt will still field some top-flight talent at the skill positions. If history is any indicator the best time to catch NE is early in the season. But an awful lot would have to go right.


Prediction: NE 41, Pitt 20. I think the emotion of the game for NE, plus Pittsburgh’s obvious defensive deficiencies, will be too much for Pittsburgh’s depleted offense to overcome. NE pulls away in a rout, leaving Pitt to hope for a postseason rematch with a healthier squad/more seasoned D.


My questions for Pats Nation:

· What is the best approach, in your opinion, to attack NE offensively and defensively?
· Do you have any significant concerns going into this game? (Not necessarily just in the matchup with Pittsburgh per se, but for the team as a whole?)
· Just curious: who, exactly, is playing early running back for NE these days?


lillloyd

 

[patriot lifer]

Thanks for the very intelligent posts! And for talking football! It's exciting that football starts this Thursday.

I'm not as savvy a football fan as most on the Board but I'd attack the NEP offense as such:

• Attack the Pats O-line
• Don't worry about the outside threats at receiver
• Be careful using zone coverage
• Always know where Edelman and Gronk are (nothing new there)

O-Line - The NEP struggled mightily in the early games in PY. They won't make the same mistake as last year with how they shuffle players, but I expect the line to be shaky in the early weeks. This is potentially the greatest opportunity for the Steelers to wreak havoc.

Outside the numbers Wide Receivers - The NEP don't have quality wide receivers outside of Edelman and Amendola now that Lafell is on the reserve PUP. This will help the Steelers defense focus on middle of the field.

Zone Coverage - I think this is well-documented that Brady has a field-day with Zone.

Edelman and Gronk - These players are his fallback pass catchers. When in doubt, he'll target these guys.

 

[50-yard-line]

Nice write-ups, and thanks for the insight!

I think NE wins, sure - home opener, banner-hanging, etc. - but never say never. Ben's best ability is extending plays, and so it's easy for Pittsburgh to draft gifted receivers (Brady needs cerebral ones, apparently) and let them run wild.

I expect the Pats will show RB by committee, certainly. Defensively, Pitt should push up the middle for all they're worth. I'd stunt left side repeatedly, as Solder tends to lean in to help his guard.

Offensively, keep going over the top and hope for rain.

 

[patriot lifer]

On to the Defense, I'm curious what other posters will suggest, but I'd say the following:

• Be patient against the D
• Challenge the cornerbacks
• Exploit the Zone coverage (when employed)

Patience - The NEP defense has seldom been this talented. The popular narrative is on the loss of Revis/Browner/Arrington, but the rest of the defense is looking better than last year. I won't elaborate too much more here, but the Steelers really have to feel out how good the NEP defense will be. Even we don't really know to expect.

Cornerbacks - The Superbowl hero, Malcom Butler, will lead the helm as the #1 on the defensive left-side. He's an obvious downgrade from Revis but provides an improvement from the historical (pre-Revis) lack of risk-takers on the defense. Tarell Brown is the #2 and may even be an upgrade over Browner. He was part of those vaunted SF defenses and was a starter at CB, including the SB year. Fletcher is the #3 and is historically a starter, but I'd guess he's a downgrade from Arrington. Overall, expect the CBs to get burned at times and the Steelers should certainly challenge them early and often. On the NEP side, they can mitigate their losses with solid Safeties and strong Front 7 play.

Zone Coverage - Historically, we've watched pedestrian QB's manifest their greatness as HOF elites, if only for their match-ups against NEP zone coverage. Big Ben should repeatedly check the coverage before each play.

 

[lillloyd]

Ben's best ability is extending plays, and so it's easy for Pittsburgh to draft gifted receivers (Brady needs cerebral ones, apparently) and let them run wild.

He still extends plays from time to time, but he's doing most of his damage from the pocket these days in Haley's offense. Per PFF, he had the 5th-quickest average release time (Brady was fastest, of course) for starting QBs last year.

I'm sure he'll always be known as a "playground" QB since those are the kinds of plays that end up on the highlights, but the reality is the coaching staff seems to have finally gotten through to him on taking less hits by getting the ball out quicker.

LOL @ "hope for rain"...it's never good when your hope for a "W" depends on the weather gods

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Thanks for the comprehensive, informative post. I will read it in more detail later. I definitely think the score will be much closer.

 

[lillloyd]

On to the Defense, I'm curious what other posters will suggest, but I'd say the following:

• Be patient against the D
• Challenge the cornerbacks
• Exploit the Zone coverage (when employed)

Patience - The NEP defense has seldom been this talented. The popular narrative is on the loss of Revis/Browner/Arrington, but the rest of the defense is looking better than last year. I won't elaborate too much more here, but the Steelers really have to feel out how good the NEP defense will be. Even we don't really know to expect.

Yeah the front 7 seems really stout. I'm curious, how are the younger DTs looking (Easley, Brown?) Are either starting (or at least part of the main DL rotation?) I watched Easley for a while during a recent broadcast, gotta say he looked pretty damn good.

Pitt's OL is vastly improved over a couple of years ago, when they were one of the worst lines in the league. But it's not exactly the Cowboys' line either.... One of my worries going into this game is that the insertion of Wallace and DWill (since Bell is so terrific at passpro) will tilt the trench battle decidedly in NE's favor.

 

[borg]

I'm typically pretty measured about NE's chances each week. That being said....Pitt needs to treat week #2 as their 1st game of the year. The stars are too aligned for NE and I don't see Belichick taking his foot off the throttle. The 2015 Revenge Tour begins. This Pitt game will just be an appetizer and dinner won't be served until Indy.
The sewers run red with Steelers blood!!

 

[Patriot Missile]

If you are going to attack New England offensively it all starts with Brown drawing the double coverage and other guys like Wheaton making plays. The old Heath Miller may be in for a big game if the coverage allows it. Jamie Collins is a great up and coming LB who has shown flashes of being great in pass protection but has also shown weakness at it as well. If that makes any sense.

The NE front 7 seems to be the best they've had in awhile and I expect a pretty good pass rush with some fresh depth. Not sure about their run stopping ability just yet and am eager to see if D Williams can run or not.

I have my doubts about this Patriots secondary as of right now, but am hoping they will improve as the season progresses. I'm assuming Brown will be covered by Butler with McCourty helping over the top depending on if Belichick decides if the cb's will switch sides.

Bell is a monster and I'm glad he is not there. In the AFC divisional, Forsett was a nightmare for the Pats and I'm glad they stopped running him in the 4th quarter. Bell is a even bigger monster to deal with,his pass catching ability out of the backfield is electric.


Question. How big of a loss is Pouncey to the inside running game from your perspective? When Bell comes back, is he going to be able to perform at the same level of play without him?

 

[patsfan13]

Thanks for stopping by, great write up.

Attacking NE defense, the fans feel we have the best front 7 since 2007 the questions are in the secondary. McCourtyis the glue, solid FS . Chung strong against the run vulnerable as a cover guy. The TE could be a focus for your team this game.

Butler has had a good camp and IMO will be a solid #1 cb, not Revis of course. We have played a lot of 4-2-5 recently. Brown and Fletcher figure to be the other 2 cb's who will start in the preseason when running 3 cb sets Brown was in the slot and Fletcher was outside.

Fletcher would be the guy I would attack. Along with using the TE. I am very happy Bell isn't playing.

The O will be very good this year, nut not sure how effective they will be early on. Brady was very spotty in preseason, a combination of deflategate and injuries. BB can be very careful with dinged players. We haven't seen Gronk or Julian Edleman on the field yet. LaFell is on PuP so not available either. The WR corp will be Edleman and Amendola. I expect to see a lot of 2TE sets with Gronk and Chandler. Our backup WR's are Dobson and a UDFA rookie Harper. I have questions whether early on Brady will be in sync, with his weapons. Blount is suspended and the other big back Gray was cut. Bolden is a large back who is ok in spot situations, the 3rd down backs are pretty good in the passing game.

The tackles are the same as last year, inside things are in flux. Bryon Stork, has been out most of the camp with a concussion, he wasn't seen at practice today unclear if he will play. Wendell was at G didn't play till the last preseason game he will be at C if Stork can't go. In that case we will have 2 rookies at guard.

If I am the Steerle DC I attack the interior line, get pressure up the middle, bothers Brady weakest part of the OL.

Brady usually kills zone coverage, if he isn't pressured could be a long night. Crowd will be nuts this week due to deflategate victory, BB has us against the world card to play this year.



Who is you TE? Still Miller?

 

[lillloyd]

If you are going to attack New England offensively it all start with Brown drawing the double coverage and other guys like Wheaton making plays. The old Heath Miller may be in for a big game if the coverage allows it. Jamie Collins is a great up and coming LB who has shown flashes of being great in pass protection but has also shown weakness at it as well. If that makes any sense.

The NE front 7 seems to be the best they've had in awhile and I expect a pretty good pass rush with some fresh depth. Not sure about their run stopping ability just yet and am eager to see if D Williams can run or not.

I have my doubts about this Patriots secondary as of right now, but am hoping they will improve as the season progresses. I'm assuming Brown will be covered by Butler with McCourty with help over the top depending on if Belichick decides if the cb's will switch sides.

Bell is a monster and I'm glad he is not there. In the AFC divisional Forsett was a nightmare for the Pats and I'm glad they stopped running him in the 4th quarter. Bell is a even bigger monster to deal with his pass catching ability out of the backfield.

Question. How big of a loss is Pouncey to the inside running game from your perspective? When Bell comes back is he going to be able to perform at the same level of play without him?

I don't think Pouncey's a true mauler. He's also dinged a lot, so Wallace has some starting experience and he's done reasonably well in the running game. So the ability to run between the tackles may not be a huge issue in terms of dropoff.

The bigger issue is Pouncey's athleticism and versatility -- his ability to pull, and get to the second level. On top of that, he helps make the calls in protection. So Pittsburgh's playboook may be more limited in the running game, and you may see more assignment mistake pressures, in Pouncey's absence.

FWIW DWilliams dropped about 15 pounds and showed decent burst in the preseason, but he is not electric in the way he was in his early CAR career. I don't think he will break any long runs, and I don't think he is nearly the dynamic pass catcher that Bell is....however he's still respectable as a pure runner IMO.

 

[strngplyr]

I think Pouncey is the biggest loss for this game.

New Englands best defensive asset is their ability to blitz up the A-Gaps, with Hightower and Collins, who were ranked #1 and #2 respective in inside LB pressures last season I believe.

Losing Pouncey disrupts communication and is an obvious talent dropoff to his replacement.

Our edge rush should also be greatly improved, Jones looks bulked up and has played out of his mind in limited snaps in the PS, Sheard has been a beast, Ninkovich rarely makes mistakes though he is never flashy, and a trio of younger players in Johnson, Flowers, and Grissom have all spent the entire preseason in the opponents backfield.

I also believe that Pitt will need to be ready to defend RBs out of the backfield, I'm not sure how well they do that, but 3 of the 4 RB's on the roster are known as strong pass catchers.

I don't know if NE wins by 21 as you predict, but they should win handily and Pitts defensive struggles will help our offense build early confidence quickly, IMO.

Pitt is probably my choice to win the AFCN but they're coming to New England at an awful point in the season with everything going wrong for them.

 

[Mike the Brit]

Great to have you back, lillloyd!

What others have said. As I see it, Pitt's best chances are:

1. The NE O-line

2. The secondary

3. The fact that many key players haven't played in the pre-season and others, what with some (*cough*) "distractions", may not be at full-season intensity.​

 

[lillloyd]

Thanks for stopping by, great write up.

Attacking NE defense, the fans feel we have the best front 7 since 2007 the questions are in the secondary. McCourtyis the glue, solid FS . Chung strong against the run vulnerable as a cover guy. The TE could be a focus for your team this game.

Butler has had a good camp and IMO will be a solid #1 cb, not Revis of course. We have played a lot of 4-2-5 recently. Brown and Fletcher figure to be the other 2 cb's who will start in the preseason when running 3 cb sets Brown was in the slot and Fletcher was outside.

Fletcher would be the guy I would attack. Along with using the TE. I am very happy Bell isn't playing.

Beyond just being a Steelers fan, I'm just really disappointed as a general football fan that Bryant, Bell, and Pouncey aren't in this game. This had the makings of a wildly entertaining game a couple of months ago as we had the horses to really attack your secondary, particularly with Bryant's tremendous development. It could have been an I score/you score back-and-forth type game. Alas...the league's disciplinary policy may be a shambles, but re/ marijuana they are definitely on the case

The O will be very good this year, nut not sure how effective they will be early on. Brady was very spotty in preseason, a combination of deflategate and injuries. BB can be very careful with dinged players. We haven't seen Gronk or Julian Edleman on the field yet. LaFell is on PuP so not available either. The WR corp will be Edleman and Amendola. I expect to see a lot of 2TE sets with Gronk and Chandler. Our backup WR's are Dobson and a UDFA rookie Harper. I have questions whether early on Brady will be in sync, with his weapons. Blount is suspended and the other big back Gray was cut. Bolden is a large back who is ok in spot situations, the 3rd down backs are pretty good in the passing game.

The tackles are the same as last year, inside things are in flux. Bryon Stork, has been out most of the camp with a concussion, he wasn't seen at practice today unclear if he will play. Wendell was at G didn't play till the last preseason game he will be at C if Stork can't go. In that case we will have 2 rookies at guard.

If I am the Steerle DC I attack the interior line, get pressure up the middle, bothers Brady weakest part of the OL.

We run a lot of those "Fire X"-style interior blitzes with our ILBs, and the guys we have (Timmons, Shazier) are quick enough to get home. Something to watch. Heyward is an ascending player as well, and can do damage on stunts inside.

Regarding our DTs, we have Steve McClendon as a starter who is more a penetrating type than a classic 3-4, Casey Hampton type. Our top reserve (Dan McCullers) is a mountain who can move a pile on his own.

The problem is Brady gets the ball out so quick, and as mentioned previously Pitt just has basic assignment issues on the back end. So any time we blitz we may get gashed in the spot that's vacated.

Who is you TE? Still Miller?

Yup still Heath Miller. He's lost a step and he's starting to drop passes he'd catch easily in his early days. But he's still a pretty good TE who can find soft spots in a zone. Good RZ target as well.

 

[lillloyd]

I also believe that Pitt will need to be ready to defend RBs out of the backfield, I'm not sure how well they do that, but 3 of the 4 RB's on the roster are known as strong pass catchers.

Our ILBs (Timmons, Shazier) are athletic and can run and cover. If you can isolate the backs on the OLBs though, you'll have a stronger advantage.

Again the issue is less one-on-one matchup capability, so much as it will be whether Steelers defenders are even in proper position to begin with... your backs may leak out not have a defender within 20 yards of them, if the preaseason is any indication

 

[lillloyd]

Great to have you back, lillloyd!

What others have said. As I see it, Pitt's best chances are:

1. The NE O-line

2. The secondary

3. The fact that many key players haven't played in the pre-season and others, what with some (*cough*) "distractions", may not be at full-season intensity.​

Greetings Mike! Good to be back...

I gotta say, the last time NE had similar "distractions" they seemed to do pretty well in the regular season

 

[patsfan13]

Over the course of the season, if healthy this offense could average 35 ppg. Gronk/Chandler w Edleman could be impossible to stop.

 

[patriot lifer]

Yeah the front 7 seems really stout. I'm curious, how are the younger DTs looking (Easley, Brown?) Are either starting (or at least part of the main DL rotation?) I watched Easley for a while during a recent broadcast, gotta say he looked pretty damn good.

Pitt's OL is vastly improved over a couple of years ago, when they were one of the worst lines in the league. But it's not exactly the Cowboys' line either.... One of my worries going into this game is that the insertion of Wallace and DWill (since Bell is so terrific at passpro) will tilt the trench battle decidedly in NE's favor.

I'll have to defer to others' observations on Easley and Brown, but I'll provide some input: Brown looked like a legit starting DT/NT. I'm sure there'll be a learning curve, but he looks like he belongs (nothing flashy shown thus far). The concern with Easley is that he's a tweener, given his weight. If he's a stellar player, then it doesn't matter, but being "stellar" is a high bar to pass. He's shown some flashes, but at this point, we really need the live-action to judge them. The Steelers are the guinea pigs.

Malcom Brown will likely start, or at least receive substantial playing time. Easley may start against some teams, given the match-ups, but I wouldn't pencil him as a starter at this point. We expect them to mix Easley in as both DT and DE depending on the match-ups and situations.

Nevertheless, we're all excited to see two first round D-linemen and Sheard contemporaneously enter the fold on D.