Would we draft 2 DL high?

[jefmblrd]

You certainly can't have enough depth on the DL, so I would have no problem if they drafted 2 DL in the first couple of rounds: Watt, Jordan, Wilkerson...all would be fine.

 

[RayClay]

I'm not advocating Brace as a everyday starter here but to be fair he was showing noticeable improvement before going down with injury at the DE position. How do you know he wasn't willing to play NT for this team? Wilfork never got injured so at the time there was no need to have Brace back up NT. Wright and Brace's injuries had Wilfork out of position for a majority of the season.

Because when they moved Wilfork out of necessity, they didn't use Brace, even though he had been training for a year.

They didn't move Wilfork because of injury, they moved him because he was their only premier lineman and they used him wherever it hurt the opposing defense the most and patched elsewhere as best they could.

As has been said, sometimes you don't need a weatherman to see which way the wind blows.

I doubt they drafted and trained Brace for a year so Pryor, Gerard Warren and Kyle Love could take the NT snaps.

 

[the wrothbroughterer]

I'd like to see it happen. I want them taking JJ Watt and Cameron Heyward. They can bookend the DL for the next 5 years and with Vince in the middle, things could just get unfair for opposing OLs.

 

[MaineMan]

Because when they moved Wilfork out of necessity, they didn't use Brace, even though he had been training for a year.

They didn't move Wilfork because of injury, they moved him because he was their only premier lineman and they used him wherever it hurt the opposing defense the most and patched elsewhere as best they could.

As has been said, sometimes you don't need a weatherman to see which way the wind blows.

I doubt they drafted and trained Brace for a year so Pryor, Gerard Warren and Kyle Love could take the NT snaps.

See, there again, I think it was the reverse of that.

It wasn't that Brace was unable to take the NT snaps over Pryor, Warren or Love, it was that Pryor, Warren and Love were unable to take the DE snaps. If any of them had been able to, why would we have moved Wilfork (or Brace) to the outside in the first place?

Put another way, Brace wasn't the worst NT of the four, he was the best DE of the four. Basically the same reason that Wilfork was at DE - it certainly wasn't because HE was the worst NT of the four, was it?

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

My first question after reading this thread is who are these 3-4 "elite" (or should I double quote that to quote the original "elite"?) who are in NE's range? After Dareus and Fairley, maybe Bowers, I'm not sure the concept applies.

Okay, MG is pondering whether NE drafts 2 DL "high". Is "high" defined as first round only, or does it extend into the second or third rounds?

Current roster - based on my lying eyes in preseason or during the regular season:
-- NT capable: Wilfork, Wright, Love, Pryor
-- LDE capable: Warren, Wilfork, Brace, Deadrick, Richard
-- RDE capable: Wilfork, Warren*, Wright, Deadrick, Richard (* this is more of a projection as I've not seen him play there since a rookie)
-- 4-3 interior: Wilfork, Warren, Wright, Pryor, Love, Brace, Deadrick, Richard, Stroud, Favorite, Cohen
-- 4-3 DE: Warren, Wright, Richard
-- On the roster with something to prove: Stroud, Cohen, Favorite
-- projected OLB slot but demonstrated some moxy at 3-4 DE: Moore

First tier:
-- There seems no question about Wilfork.
-- Some question Ty Warren - why eludes me considering what the guy was able to do on one leg when he was playing with a torn groin.
-- Some question Mike Wright - as if no other NFLplayer has ever had light sensitivy, headaches, and blurred vision weeks after getting his bell rung before returning to his previous level of play.
-- These three are my "locks" as leaders and high producers.

Second tier - still trying to develop unrealized talent:
-- Brace
-- Pryor
-- Deadrick
-- Love
-- Richard (I'm sure this one surprises folks, but he made a second year leap before going on IR. Whether it would have been enough to win him a roster slot is unknown, but I beileve he'd have won a PSquad berth at minimum.)

Third tier - recycled veterans and other recovery projects who have their work cut out:
-- Stroud
-- Cohen
-- Favorite

NE has been known to keep as few as six defensive linemen, and up to eight. On the Practice Squad they generally don't keep more than two. This sets an upper limit of 10 "active" slots, plus however many get placed on IR out of preseason. Most seasons NE seems to keep seven DL on the active roster, and one to two more on the Practice Squad, so we'll use eight as the magic number.

Wilfork and Warren don't appear to be upgradable in this draft class. Mike Wright might be upgradable, but whomever does it will need a couple seasons to hit his stride before he can play NT, RDE, and sub-package roles to Mike's level (and that's not including Special Teams). Even including Dareus and Fairley, this does not seem like a good value draft exercise.

Brace might be upgradeable in the sense a prospect could be nearly equivalent at LDE and more versatile. That said, most will still need to go through an offseason program before they can sustain Brace's achieved level of performance before he went on IR. I'm skeptical there is value in trying to upgrade.

Pryor is upgradeable. To what extent his back issues last season (and I'm deeply sympathetic and even more so empathetic, truly so) affected his performance I can't determine, but his play at NT was not to the same level he demonstrated as a rookie. His pass rush wasn't that bad, and there it did seem to be a little more evident a factor of his back. Even so, health concerns aside, he is upgradeable, but there is only one player close to Pryor's weight who seems capable of upgrading him as a sub-rusher and reserve NT - Marvin Austin. There is no other kid in Pryor's weight class as capable of doing all the things Pryor has done for NE, and if healthy will be doing this fall (NFL v. NFLPA permitting).

Deadrick, Richard - upgradeable, possibly as late as round seven.

Love - upgradeable, possibly as late as the UDFA ranks.

The previous three have an edge, they all have at least one year in the system and NFL strength & conditioning training to give them a head start on whomever is drafted.

Cohen, Favorite are upgradeable.

Stroud is an unknown, a former All-Pro, he could have a rejuvenated career in NE or he could be another struggling veteran.

Two answer MG's question, yes, there are at least four slots equating to the back half of the active roster and one on the Practice Squad which can be upgraded. NE might indeed feel the best value from this draft is for two DL "early" to reshuffle the line.

 

[supafly]

My first question after reading this thread is who are these 3-4 "elite" (or should I double quote that to quote the original "elite"?) who are in NE's range? After Dareus and Fairley, maybe Bowers, I'm not sure the concept applies.

Okay, MG is pondering whether NE drafts 2 DL "high". Is "high" defined as first round only, or does it extend into the second or third rounds?

Current roster - based on my lying eyes in preseason or during the regular season:
-- NT capable: Wilfork, Wright, Love, Pryor
-- LDE capable: Warren, Wilfork, Brace, Deadrick, Richard
-- RDE capable: Wilfork, Warren*, Wright, Deadrick, Richard (* this is more of a projection as I've not seen him play there since a rookie)
-- 4-3 interior: Wilfork, Warren, Wright, Pryor, Love, Brace, Deadrick, Richard, Stroud, Favorite, Cohen
-- 4-3 DE: Warren, Wright, Richard
-- On the roster with something to prove: Stroud, Cohen, Favorite
-- projected OLB slot but demonstrated some moxy at 3-4 DE: Moore

First tier:
-- There seems no question about Wilfork.
-- Some question Ty Warren - why eludes me considering what the guy was able to do on one leg when he was playing with a torn groin.
-- Some question Mike Wright - as if no other NFLplayer has ever had light sensitivy, headaches, and blurred vision weeks after getting his bell rung before returning to his previous level of play.
-- These three are my "locks" as leaders and high producers.

Second tier - still trying to develop unrealized talent:
-- Brace
-- Pryor
-- Deadrick
-- Love
-- Richard (I'm sure this one surprises folks, but he made a second year leap before going on IR. Whether it would have been enough to win him a roster slot is unknown, but I beileve he'd have won a PSquad berth at minimum.)

Third tier - recycled veterans and other recovery projects who have their work cut out:
-- Stroud
-- Cohen
-- Favorite

NE has been known to keep as few as six defensive linemen, and up to eight. On the Practice Squad they generally don't keep more than two. This sets an upper limit of 10 "active" slots, plus however many get placed on IR out of preseason. Most seasons NE seems to keep seven DL on the active roster, and one to two more on the Practice Squad, so we'll use eight as the magic number.

Wilfork and Warren don't appear to be upgradable in this draft class. Mike Wright might be upgradable, but whomever does it will need a couple seasons to hit his stride before he can play NT, RDE, and sub-package roles to Mike's level (and that's not including Special Teams). Even including Dareus and Fairley, this does not seem like a good value draft exercise.

Brace might be upgradeable in the sense a prospect could be nearly equivalent at LDE and more versatile. That said, most will still need to go through an offseason program before they can sustain Brace's achieved level of performance before he went on IR. I'm skeptical there is value in trying to upgrade.

Pryor is upgradeable. To what extent his back issues last season (and I'm deeply sympathetic and even more so empathetic, truly so) affected his performance I can't determine, but his play at NT was not to the same level he demonstrated as a rookie. His pass rush wasn't that bad, and there it did seem to be a little more evident a factor of his back. Even so, health concerns aside, he is upgradeable, but there is only one player close to Pryor's weight who seems capable of upgrading him as a sub-rusher and reserve NT - Marvin Austin. There is no other kid in Pryor's weight class as capable of doing all the things Pryor has done for NE, and if healthy will be doing this fall (NFL v. NFLPA permitting).

Deadrick, Richard - upgradeable, possibly as late as round seven.

Love - upgradeable, possibly as late as the UDFA ranks.

The previous three have an edge, they all have at least one year in the system and NFL strength & conditioning training to give them a head start on whomever is drafted.

Cohen, Favorite are upgradeable.

Stroud is an unknown, a former All-Pro, he could have a rejuvenated career in NE or he could be another struggling veteran.

Two answer MG's question, yes, there are at least four slots equating to the back half of the active roster and one on the Practice Squad which can be upgraded. NE might indeed feel the best value from this draft is for two DL "early" to reshuffle the line.

Terrific analysis as always Box. Nice breakdown of the current DL situation.

One small nitpick--before last yr, they had only kept 6 on the DL in at least 4 of the past 5 yrs, so 6 was pretty much the norm. I believe before 2010 you'd have to go back to at least 06 or 07 (depending on how you'd view the Big Sey PUP) to find the last time they kept 7, and I'm not even sure about that. I gave up looking after a few yrs.

The only reason I even bring it up is b/c many (regulars) thought I was completely loco last yr in my statements about keeping 7. But that is hardly relevant, as the more important factor is that my reasoning was pretty much the same as it is now--I just don't see them 'giving up' any of the following:

--Wilfork
--Warren (we can safely go back to just calling him 'Warren' again--probably)
--Wright
--"HIGH" draft pick
--Brace (just don't see them 'giving up' yet, as I believe he started to get it)

As some have pointed out, there's already a good problem here, considering that pretty much 5 is the magic number regarding the bulk of playing time.

That leaves the following for depth and competition:

--Stroud
--Pryor
--Deaderick
--Love
--Richard

We're up to 10, not even including Cohen and Favorite--they include 12.

There's pretty much the certainty of AT LEAST ONE mid to late rd pick for the position, not to even mention UFDA's. There's also some strange possibility of free agency, although who really knows? I'm guessing there will indeed be FA's at some point. The point is, I think there's already enough to field the standard 53 man position (anywhere from 6-8, likely 6 or 7) + have adequate camp fodder AND 1-2 more on the practice squad.

To me, it looks like there's enough competition already without having to expend 2 'higher-type' picks, but with Belichick being the only one who knows, it's probably anyone's guess.

You make a case either way, and always do a nice job supporting your stance. I am personally thinking that 1 high DL will be enough, but then again, what the hell do I know?

Luckily, we'll know one way or another real soon.

 

[serifyn]

try not to stack the bench, he patriots went through defensive linemen like tissue paper last year, surely there is enough experience and playbook knowledge to bring most of them back, in addition to your shiny new prospect.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

One small nitpick--before last yr, they had only kept 6 on the DL in at least 4 of the past 5 yrs, so 6 was pretty much the norm. I believe before 2010 you'd have to go back to at least 06 or 07 (depending on how you'd view the Big Sey PUP) to find the last time they kept 7, and I'm not even sure about that. I gave up looking after a few yrs.

The only reason I even bring it up is b/c many (regulars) thought I was completely loco last yr in my statements about keeping 7.

Perhaps.

Looking at just 2009-2007 historical rosters* at patriots.com (*these rosters show the team at the end of the season, you'd have to work through transactions for the year to follow all the changes they went through):
2009 -- 6 on the active roster + 2 on the PSquad = 8
2008 -- 6 on the active roster + 1 on the PSquad + 1 on IR = 8
2007 -- 6 on the active roster + 1 on the PSquad + 1 on IR = 8

I contend 7 is more likely when your experience level is lower. In 2010 they used two rookies (Deadrick, Love), two sophomores (Brace, Pryor), two NE veterans (Wilfork, Wright), and one NFL veteran new to NE (G. Warren) when starting the season, then brought in Cohen. I believe they tried Adrian Grady on the PSquad again, but don't hold me to that, before settling on Marlon Favorite. They lost T. Warren and Richard to IR in camp.

But that is hardly relevant, as the more important factor is that my reasoning was pretty much the same as it is now--I just don't see them 'giving up' any of the following:

--Wilfork
--Warren (we can safely go back to just calling him 'Warren' again--probably)
--Wright
--"HIGH" draft pick
--Brace (just don't see them 'giving up' yet, as I believe he started to get it)

As some have pointed out, there's already a good problem here, considering that pretty much 5 is the magic number regarding the bulk of playing time.

That leaves the following for depth and competition:

--Stroud
--Pryor
--Deaderick
--Love
--Richard

We're up to 10, not even including Cohen and Favorite--they include 12.

IR, PUP ... there are a couple alternatives which might affect the body count at the beginning of the season. If the NFL is operating with the old CBA under court order, or the NFLPA gets so pinched the rank & file demand a settlement and a new CBA is reached, Love could be a trade possibility with some NT needy team (Washington, or some team who lost their's to I/R), or Deadrick to some team needing an experienced 3-4 DE. The Seymour trade serves notice almost no one is safe if the bait is shiny enough.

There's pretty much the certainty of AT LEAST ONE mid to late rd pick for the position, not to even mention UFDA's. There's also some strange possibility of free agency, although who really knows? I'm guessing there will indeed be FA's at some point. The point is, I think there's already enough to field the standard 53 man position (anywhere from 6-8, likely 6 or 7) + have adequate camp fodder AND 1-2 more on the practice squad.

To me, it looks like there's enough competition already without having to expend 2 'higher-type' picks, but with Belichick being the only one who knows, it's probably anyone's guess.

You make a case either way, and always do a nice job supporting your stance. I am personally thinking that 1 high DL will be enough, but then again, what the hell do I know?

Luckily, we'll know one way or another real soon.

Yep, good competition already exists, but it seems so "Belichickian" to anticipate NE will seize a "BPA" opportunity to make it better.

 

[MaineMan]

Another possible contributing factor to keeping 7 DL on the 53 --

By the end of 2010 camp, BB would have known he'd be without any of HIS "prototypical" 30-front DEs for the season which would perhaps lead to more frequent 40-front deployments.

 

[supafly]

Perhaps.

Looking at just 2009-2007 historical rosters* at patriots.com (*these rosters show the team at the end of the season, you'd have to work through transactions for the year to follow all the changes they went through):
2009 -- 6 on the active roster + 2 on the PSquad = 8
2008 -- 6 on the active roster + 1 on the PSquad + 1 on IR = 8
2007 -- 6 on the active roster + 1 on the PSquad + 1 on IR = 8

I contend 7 is more likely when your experience level is lower. In 2010 they used two rookies (Deadrick, Love), two sophomores (Brace, Pryor), two NE veterans (Wilfork, Wright), and one NFL veteran new to NE (G. Warren) when starting the season, then brought in Cohen. I believe they tried Adrian Grady on the PSquad again, but don't hold me to that, before settling on Marlon Favorite. They lost T. Warren and Richard to IR in camp.

IR, PUP ... there are a couple alternatives which might affect the body count at the beginning of the season. If the NFL is operating with the old CBA under court order, or the NFLPA gets so pinched the rank & file demand a settlement and a new CBA is reached, Love could be a trade possibility with some NT needy team (Washington, or some team who lost their's to I/R), or Deadrick to some team needing an experienced 3-4 DE. The Seymour trade serves notice almost no one is safe if the bait is shiny enough.

Yep, good competition already exists, but it seems so "Belichickian" to anticipate NE will seize a "BPA" opportunity to make it better.

I meant just the 53 man roster--was not including the PS.

That's how I got 6-7 being the average (on the 53).

Sorry for the confusion.

 

[Patspsycho]

I'd like to see it happen. I want them taking JJ Watt and Cameron Heyward. They can bookend the DL for the next 5 years and with Vince in the middle, things could just get unfair for opposing OLs.

I am a fan of JJ Watt, but not Heyward.

I have my eyes on this kid. I think he is a sleeper pick:

YouTube - USC DT #91 Jurrell Casey Highlights 2010