One NFC assistant's take on Tavon Wilson (inside info)

[patchick]

The biggest miss that comes to mind is Kevin O'Connell.

Good call, O'Connell is probably the purest example of a "say wha'?" Patriots reach who didn't pan out -- though by the tail end of round 3, it gets harder to really reach much!

(And...I really liked the pick at the time. Thus proving, for the 342nd time, that I have no psychic powers.)

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

Good call, O'Connell is probably the purest example of a "say wha'?" Patriots reach who didn't pan out -- though by the tail end of round 3, it gets harder to really reach much!

(And...I really liked the pick at the time. Thus proving, for the 342nd time, that I have no psychic powers.)

O'Connell was not a reach; it was just a blind stab at getting a mobile alternative to Brady. A reach is where you draft a guy well ahead of where he should have been drafted based on a desperate need; there was no urgent need for O'Connell.

 

[patchick]

O'Connell was not a reach; it was just a blind stab at getting a mobile alternative to Brady. A reach is where you draft a guy well ahead of where he should have been drafted based on a desperate need; there was no urgent need for O'Connell.

Ah, that's interesting! So by that definition, "reaching for need" is different from simply rating a player much higher than the pundit consensus? That makes sense. In one case the team feels forced to make a move they aren't happy about; in the other case they're making an unforced choice that outside observers aren't happy about. Huge difference.

Practically speaking, of course, it can be hard for us as fans to tell which is which. And they could combine, too. A moderate positional reach for a player who you happen to rate much higher than the pundits do could end up looking like a massive head-scratcher from the outside.

 

[jmt57]

The biggest miss that comes to mind is Kevin O'Connell.

I have had this discussion previously with others who disagree with me, but the KOC selection was one more than any other that boggled my mind not only at the time it was made, but also with some time to reflect - whether it was a month later, a year later, or more.

I had no problem with the Pats drafting a QB; my issue was with selecting one that early. I detest playing the 'coulda' drafted so-and-so' game given the benefit of hindsight, but the reality is that there were plenty of prospects - some that worked out, some that did not - at other positions that would have made more sense with that early of a draft pick. Trade out, trade down, take a DE, LB, OL, whatever ...

I'm usually a defender of the Patriots draft history because I find many people hold the team to unreasonably high standards of performance, but that is one decision for which there is no defense.

 

[captain stone]

O'Connell was not a reach; it was just a blind stab at getting a mobile alternative to Brady. A reach is where you draft a guy well ahead of where he should have been drafted based on a desperate need; there was no urgent need for O'Connell.

KOC was indeed a reach, by any definition, by 2 rounds. He was barely a top-150 talent.
Bill should've waited until the 5th round to take him while he still had 2 picks in that round.

 

[patchick]

KOC was indeed a reach, by any definition, by 2 rounds. He was barely a top-150 talent.
Bill should've waited until the 5th round to take him while he still had 2 picks in that round.

Huh...I really didn't think so at the time, and I just went back and checked NFLDraftScout. They had him rated as 4th-5th with the big red "rising stock" arrow. Those arrows have historically been very good at predicting players who are rated higher by teams than mocks expect. (E.g. Mankins, Vollmer, Mayo & Wilson all had red arrows.) So I don't think the end of the 3rd was much of a stretch for O'Connell, unless you feel as jmt57 does that they shouldn't spend a 3rd on ANY quarterback.

That's an interesting question. I'm a firm believer that every team, regardless of how awesome their starter is, should be constantly trying to develop young QBs. And guy with the combination of attributes O'Connell showed at the time is almost never going to be around for a 7th-round flyer, barring a freakish situation like Cassel's.

BUT, complicating matters is the fact that the Patriots have had better luck with QBs at the end of the draft and beyond than in the middle rounds. Which is just plain weird, really.

 

[Off The Grid]

You honor US, Brother MidWest and Brother York!!

"We Are All Brothers, in the Eyes of GOD." ~ Yon Preacher

"AAAAAAYAEAEAEAEAEAAEAHHHHHHH!!!" ~ Brother Bluto Blutarksy

Anybody want to guess which Yankee ~ she's from Lynn!! ~ starred in BOTH these movies??

No cheating!! :nono:

Verna Bloom, who I did not know was from Lynn, Lynn the city of Sin.

I really dug that outfit she wore underneath her coat in Otter's room.

Well done, Sir!!

Verna Bloom in High Plains Drifter​

Verna Bloom in Animal House​

Me, I preferred her far more in High Plains Drifter ~ long hair, no make up...dirty. But that's me!!

 

[Off The Grid]

By the way: Thank you, Sister Pat ~ I assume 'twas you ~ for blasting that ugly Red X out'f my OP and Brother Stone's Copy...I don't know why that happened: The Pic I've resubmitted is the original, complete with JPG Format. Nothing unusual about it that I can discern. Something seems to be amok with Video from that Epic film, but it's the first time I've had a problem with a Pic, that I remember.

 

[fester]

BUT, complicating matters is the fact that the Patriots have had better luck with QBs at the end of the draft and beyond than in the middle rounds. Which is just plain weird, really.

We don't have a big enough sample size to determine whether or not the Pats luck/skill in finding QBs in or after the 6th round is noticably different than finding a QB between rounds 1 through 5 under the Belicheck drafting/UDFA signing regime, especially if we remove one massive outlier (Brady) from consideration.

There have been 2 late "hits" in Cassell and Hoyer (I define Hoyer as a hit because the Pats were willing to tender him reasonably high as an RFA). there have been numerous misses as well (Guteriez, Roe, Robinson etc).

There has been 1 potential hit (Mallett) and two misses of the Round 1 through 5 QBs (Davies, KOC) but given their respective draft positions, a 33% hit rate is not that bad...

Right now it seems that the Pats do a better job late, but how much of that is pure churn/numbers games compared to their lack of apparent success earlier on?

 

[midwestpatsfan]

I know this thread has taken a bit of a turn (probably for the better) but I thought some here might like to know that I just got back from a little 4th of july vacation where we did some camping (not smart, soo hot). The reason this is interesting to patriots fans is that my friend was there as well (not just any friend, the one who works in the nfl). Lets just say there was more than one conversation about the draft and Tavon Wilson. I would not say I have anything mind blowing to reveal here, but this is what I was able to get out of him over some adult beverages.

1. Like coaches, lots of these guys are friends with other assistants around the league and he talked to others he knew. He said overall that within the teams that he was able to talk with people, the Tavon Wilson pick was not a shock. He confirmed to me that 2 teams (would not tell me who) had a 3rd round grade on him. He also told me that one team had Wilson as their highest rated safety left on their board when he was picked by the Patriots, but also said that it was a team that was not in huge need of a safety so was not sure what round grade he had.

2. Non Wilson related, apparently multiple teams including the Ravens were pushing hard to get up to take Hightower, he told me he has heard as many as 6 teams. Apparently, Hightower was accreted with being the guy who made all the other players on that defense for being in the right place at the right time and looking better. He also got high praises for being unselfish by putting his teammates in opportunities to succeed at the possible expense of not getting individual highlights for himself.

3. This one might get me in trouble as this came out late in the evening if you know what I mean. He revealed that the team he works for was contacted by the Patriots trying to move down in the 2nd round. He would not tell me if it was when they picked wilson or if it was the 2nd pick, but working their value chart it would have been in my friends teams favor but they showed very little interest in making the trade.

4. A player that his team had very highly rated was Jake Bequette and had a 3rd round grade on him. Obviously they had other guys rated higher or bigger needs, but I thought that was good.

5. They had Dennard with a high 3rd round grade before the incident. He was immediately taken off their board after.

6. Not necessarily his teams opinion, but his own opinion was that he really liked Jeremy Ebert and was a perfect fit for the patriots. He admits it might be tough for him to make the team after the additions after the draft at WR, but look for him to impress and be a hard cut or a surprise make.

7. His team, as well as every other team he knows guys, thinks Chandler Jones has the potential to become an impact defensive player. He told me their card said "high character, hard working guy that possesses extremely rare ht, wt, spd combination. His team was shocked, and I asked him again if he meant actually shocked, that the Jets took Coples over Jones. He insinuated that they did not have a first round grade on Coples.


Okay, there you have it, I do not usually get to come with great knowledge but I hope this is a fun read for all of you.

 

[patchick]

Wow, IF this is all true (and I'm sure you won't take offense that we have to take it all with several grains of salt), there's a ton to salivate over....

He said overall that within the teams that he was able to talk with people, the Tavon Wilson pick was not a shock. He confirmed to me that 2 teams (would not tell me who) had a 3rd round grade on him.

Nonsense. We all KNOW that he would have been available on day 3. :nono:

He revealed that the team he works for was contacted by the Patriots trying to move down in the 2nd round. He would not tell me if it was when they picked wilson or if it was the 2nd pick, but working their value chart it would have been in my friends teams favor but they showed very little interest in making the trade.

Ah, that makes for splendid speculation! The big question for many wasn't so much "why Wilson" as "why not trade down at least a LITTLE," even if the chart value wasn't favorable. But of course, it's not always so easy in real time.

5. They had Dennard with a high 3rd round grade before the incident. He was immediately taken off their board after.

Definitely encouraging that it was "the incident" rather than Senior Bowl performance, etc. that made the big difference.

His team was shocked, and I asked him again if he meant actually shocked, that the Jets took Coples over Jones. He insinuated that they did not have a first round grade on Coples.

Q: What's better than a glowing report on a Patriots rookie?
A: That it comes with a slam on the Jets.

:singing:

 

[midwestpatsfan]

I have said this before, but I will say it again, I too am always suspicious when someone say they know a guy and this is what he told me. This will probably be the only time I pry information out of him because I respect his and his teams privacy, but with Wilson being such a lightning rod, I could not resist. Usually we just talk draft in general terms before and I always felt weird trying to extract info from him, but he was gracious enough to humor me this time.
Please do take it for a grain of salt, he is by no means a high ranking person either, so as information gets passed on, it probably loses some of its initial truth, but it is fun.

 

[captain stone]

Huh...I really didn't think so at the time, and I just went back and checked NFLDraftScout. They had him rated as 4th-5th with the big red "rising stock" arrow. Those arrows have historically been very good at predicting players who are rated higher by teams than mocks expect. (E.g. Mankins, Vollmer, Mayo & Wilson all had red arrows.) So I don't think the end of the 3rd was much of a stretch for O'Connell, unless you feel as jmt57 does that they shouldn't spend a 3rd on ANY quarterback.

That's an interesting question. I'm a firm believer that every team, regardless of how awesome their starter is, should be constantly trying to develop young QBs. And guy with the combination of attributes O'Connell showed at the time is almost never going to be around for a 7th-round flyer, barring a freakish situation like Cassel's.

BUT, complicating matters is the fact that the Patriots have had better luck with QBs at the end of the draft and beyond than in the middle rounds. Which is just plain weird, really.

I do indeed feel as jmt does that Bill should not have used a 3rd - or a 1st or 2nd or 4th -
on any QB in '08, which was a really bad draft year for QBs. After Brohm & HennyPenny
were chosen late in the 2nd round, I didn't think that there were any other QBs worthy
of selection for the next 3 rounds.
Needless to say, I was very surprised & disappointed that KOC was taken at 94. Then again,
after Bill over-drafted (again by 2 full rounds) lil' Terry Wheatley at 62, nothing he did that weekend
should've surprised me.

I also am a believer that every team should either draft or sign as a Priority UDFA one QB per year,
to develop as either a future replacement or a trade asset.

 

[captain stone]

Well done, Sir!!

Verna Bloom in High Plains Drifter​

Verna Bloom in Animal House​

Me, I preferred her far more in High Plains Drifter ~ long hair, no make up...dirty. But that's me!!

I can dig that, but we gotta cut her some slack. Animal House was nearly 6 years later,
and Verna was approaching the big 4-0 soon thereafter.
BTW, was it from High Plains Drifter that the expression "a roll in the hay" originated?

 

[captain stone]

I have said this before, but I will say it again, I too am always suspicious when someone say they know a guy and this is what he told me. This will probably be the only time I pry information out of him because I respect his and his teams privacy, but with Wilson being such a lightning rod, I could not resist. Usually we just talk draft in general terms before and I always felt weird trying to extract info from him, but he was gracious enough to humor me this time.
Please do take it for a grain of salt, he is by no means a high ranking person either, so as information gets passed on, it probably loses some of its initial truth, but it is fun.

I agree, it is fun, esp. during the doldrums before TC.
And I am going to ass-ume that Deep Draft does not work for the Packers, who did trade down
in the 2nd round, 3 picks after Bill chose Wilson.

 

[midwestpatsfan]

I agree, it is fun, esp. during the doldrums before TC.
And I am going to ass-ume that Deep Draft does not work for the Packers, who did trade down
in the 2nd round, 3 picks after Bill chose Wilson.

very keen detective work, good sir.

 

[patchick]

I do indeed feel as jmt does that Bill should not have used a 3rd - or a 1st or 2nd or 4th -
on any QB in '08, which was a really bad draft year for QBs. After Brohm & HennyPenny
were chosen late in the 2nd round, I didn't think that there were any other QBs worthy
of selection for the next 3 rounds.

OK, that's totally reasonable given that draft class, but it seems like a different issue. You're saying you didn't like the talent at QB in that particular draft and thought the available players were poor value in the middle rounds. If I understood jmt57 correctly, he was making a broader statement of draft philosophy: How much draft capital should you spend on a QB if you already have a franchise QB?

 

[jmt57]

OK, that's totally reasonable given that draft class, but it seems like a different issue. You're saying you didn't like the talent at QB in that particular draft and thought the available players were poor value in the middle rounds. If I understood jmt57 correctly, he was making a broader statement of draft philosophy: How much draft capital should you spend on a QB if you already have a franchise QB?

Just to clarify: In 2008 I didn't like the idea of the Pats using that early of a pick on any QB at that point in time. On the other hand I am on board with the idea of bringing a new QB on to the roster every year. In that particular situation my preference would have been for the Pats to use a 7th round pick or add an undrafted free agent.

While Ryan Mallett was also a 3rd round pick the circumstances were quite different. Among other things Brady was now three years older; the current backup was soon going to be gone; and Mallett appeared to have a much higher ceiling (i.e. better value). I wouldn't have gone into the draft thinking 'let's use a 3rd on a QB', but he unexpectedly dropped, making it difficult to pass him by at that point.

 

[DaBruinz]

I agree, it is fun, esp. during the doldrums before TC.
And I am going to ass-ume that Deep Draft does not work for the Packers, who did trade down
in the 2nd round, 3 picks after Bill chose Wilson.

Or, the Packers were approached by a team with an offer they couldn't refuse. An offer that was not made to the Patriots..

 

[patchick]

Just to clarify: In 2008 I didn't like the idea of the Pats using that early of a pick on any QB at that point in time. On the other hand I am on board with the idea of bringing a new QB on to the roster every year. In that particular situation my preference would have been for the Pats to use a 7th round pick or add an undrafted free agent.

While Ryan Mallett was also a 3rd round pick the circumstances were quite different. Among other things Brady was now three years older; the current backup was soon going to be gone; and Mallett appeared to have a much higher ceiling (i.e. better value). I wouldn't have gone into the draft thinking 'let's use a 3rd on a QB', but he unexpectedly dropped, making it difficult to pass him by at that point.

OK, thanks for clarifying. But I'd counter that their backup was going into the final year of his rookie contract in 2008, too, and that O'Connell was the only significant-looking QB prospect left in that draft.

Personally, I liked O'Connell to fill the looming backup void. Obviously I was wrong, as were the Patriots. But I think the concept was reasonable. If they hadn't targeted a qb -- and then hadn't lucked out with a UDFA in 2009 -- everybody would have been fuming about how they'd completely neglected the position. (Remember, the 2009 draft was devoid of mid-level QB prospects too.)