No wonder Deion Branch is fed up.....

[MoLewisrocks]

The problem with waiting is it is the player may get fed up and decide to bolt somewhere else to where they feel wanted ala Vinatierri... And the thing is the pats have very little leverage..what will happen if branch plays out this year and at the end the money the pats are offering is mediocre?... You really think they'll tag him? A franchise tag for a receiver is somewhere between 7-8 million. It's cheaper to just give him an extension.

If the pats make him play out this year they run the risk of having him bolt to FA...

It's not cheaper to give him an extension if he's asking to be paid like Reggie Wayne ($12M+ signing bonus and $6.5M per). The franchise tag is $6-7M which would pay him what he wants but only for 1 year. It would also enable the team to shop him as a tag and trade and probably net a 2 and maybe more if he has a contract season performance this year. Without that performance Deion is liable to find himself getting Givens like offers from loser teams like the only 2 who persued David.

And he could also be transition tagged which is around $5M and he can shop himself while the team retains the right to match any offer he gets.

Waiting also gives them a chance to evaluate Jackson and Caldwell, either or both of whom could perform at a level that makes paying Deion a lot of money long term not a good value signing.

 

[Welker83]

It's not cheaper to give him an extension if he's asking to be paid like Reggie Wayne ($12M+ signing bonus and $6.5M per). The franchise tag is $6-7M which would pay him what he wants but only for 1 year. It would also enable the team to shop him as a tag and trade and probably net a 2 and maybe more if he has a contract season performance this year. Without that performance Deion is liable to find himself getting Givens like offers from loser teams like the only 2 who persued David.

And he could also be transition tagged which is around $5M and he can shop himself while the team retains the right to match any offer he gets.

Waiting also gives them a chance to evaluate Jackson and Caldwell, either or both of whom could perform at a level that makes paying Deion a lot of money long term not a good value signing.

Transition Tag is useless see: Steve Hutchinson


Franchise Tag for next year should be 6.18 million..based off the top 5 salaries for 2007
R. Moss 9.75 mil
C. Chambers 5.4 mil
A. Johnson 5.25 mil
R. Smith 5.5 mil
T. Owens 5 mil

Transition tag will be 4.992 million
Based on the above plus:
L. coles 4 mil
Harrison 4 mil
Holt 4.15 mil
Ward 3.58 mil
Burress 3.29 mil

But it's useless w/ the whole poison pill thing...

 

[fgssand]

It's not cheaper to give him an extension if he's asking to be paid like Reggie Wayne ($12M+ signing bonus and $6.5M per). The franchise tag is $6-7M which would pay him what he wants but only for 1 year. It would also enable the team to shop him as a tag and trade and probably net a 2 and maybe more if he has a contract season performance this year. Without that performance Deion is liable to find himself getting Givens like offers from loser teams like the only 2 who persued David.

And he could also be transition tagged which is around $5M and he can shop himself while the team retains the right to match any offer he gets.

Waiting also gives them a chance to evaluate Jackson and Caldwell, either or both of whom could perform at a level that makes paying Deion a lot of money long term not a good value signing.

Your last sentence is a great point made. Unless Deion is willing to ink a deal that is attractive for BOTH the player and the team - there is no incentive for the team to sign him this year. We can indeed franchise him should he really step up and finally break into the top 10 WR's. If we find Jackson is the real thing and Reche plays up to his potential for once, then my favorite Deion may hardball himself right out of Foxboro.

 

[DaBruinz]

The problem with waiting is it is the player may get fed up and decide to bolt somewhere else to where they feel wanted ala Vinatierri... And the thing is the pats have very little leverage..what will happen if branch plays out this year and at the end the money the pats are offering is mediocre?... You really think they'll tag him? A franchise tag for a receiver is somewhere between 7-8 million. It's cheaper to just give him an extension.

If the pats make him play out this year they run the risk of having him bolt to FA...

Vinatieri didn't feel unwanted. Vinatieri was wanted in New England, but not at the price Vinatieri wanted to be paid. There is a difference. Also, Vinatieri is the one who sat on his arse for the better part of a year with his agent suspended and did not name a new agent. So, please stop trying to play Vinatieri up as a saint. If he had actually wanted to stay in New England, Vinatieri would have gotten a new agent immediately and gotten a deal done last year. He didn't. He waited. Why? Because he didn't want to be in New England anymore? Why? Because he's a selfish prig like Peyton Manning. Vinatieri only cares about Vinatieri. Vinatieri wanted to extend his career so that he could try and make it into the Hall of Fame. The problem is that he shouldn't have gone to a dome. Vinatieri's stats for kick-offs will go up by like 3 yards per kick. And its because of all the kicks he'll be making in the domes. And people will take that into consideration. Basically it will look like Adam is trying to pad his stats. Hmm.. Indy definitely seems like the place for that. He's got a great role model in Peyton Manning. That is for sure.

 

[Brady-To-Branch]

Vinatieri wanted to extend his career so that he could try and make it into the Hall of Fame. The problem is that he shouldn't have gone to a dome. Vinatieri's stats for kick-offs will go up by like 3 yards per kick. And its because of all the kicks he'll be making in the domes. And people will take that into consideration. Basically it will look like Adam is trying to pad his stats.

I'm pretty sure Adam is a lock for the HOF now and doesn't need to pad his stats. That said, I agree with you that he is no saint.

 

[Brady-To-Branch]

The Pats need Deion more for this year than for next. By 2007, Chad will have a years worth of experience and Reche will have the same under the system.

I want Branch to remain with the Pats for a long time, but not at Wayne money.

JMHO

 

[Welker83]

The Pats need Deion more for this year than for next. By 2007, Chad will have a years worth of experience and Reche will have the same under the system.

I want Branch to remain with the Pats for a long time, but not at Wayne money.

JMHO

Why is the wayne type money so bad? here's the breakdown on Waynes contract.
6 Years $40,000,000
Signing Bonus: $13,500,000
Other Boni: $1,040,000
Salary/Cap hit
2006 2,600,000/ 4,850,000
2007 3,000,000/ 5,250,000
2008 3,500,000/ 5,750,000
2009 4,940,000/ 7,190,000
2010 5,470,000/ 7,720,000
2011 5,950,000/ 8,200,000

In regards to Cap %
2006: 4.75% (102 million)
2007: 4.77% (110 million est.)

In regards to offensive production for 2005 Branch's contribution:
Rec Yards: 23%
Rec Td's: 18%
Rec 1st Downs: 25%

Also note there are no spikes in this deal..basically just an increase of $500,000 every year. There is however at least 1 million in a bonus some where in the deal.

In regards to other receivers his salary will be lower than(not cap number):2006/2007 (in millions)
Steve Smith 2.7/3.15
Terell Owens 5/5
R. Moss 8.25/9.75
Torry Holt 3.85/4.15
Marty Booker 3/3.1
Andre Johnson 5/5.25
Rod Smith 3/5.5
Hines Ward 2.75/3.58
Derrick Mason 3/3

And he will be very close to others...
Burress 2.35/3.29
Coles 2/4
Darrell Jackson 2.5/3.25

Overall this contract is not in the elite range, but it is definatly in the #1 receiver range. Now whether he deserves it is still in question but I hope these numbers might help you determine that...

 

[Brady-To-Branch]

Why is the wayne type money so bad? here's the breakdown on Waynes contract.
6 Years $40,000,000
Signing Bonus: $13,500,000
Other Boni: $1,040,000
Salary/Cap hit
2006 2,600,000/ 4,850,000
2007 3,000,000/ 5,250,000
2008 3,500,000/ 5,750,000
2009 4,940,000/ 7,190,000
2010 5,470,000/ 7,720,000
2011 5,950,000/ 8,200,000

In regards to Cap %
2006: 4.75% (102 million)
2007: 4.77% (110 million est.)

In regards to offensive production for 2005 Branch's contribution:
Rec Yards: 23%
Rec Td's: 18%
Rec 1st Downs: 25%

Also note there are no spikes in this deal..basically just an increase of $500,000 every year. There is however at least 1 million in a bonus some where in the deal.

In regards to other receivers his salary will be lower than(not cap number):2006/2007 (in millions)
Steve Smith 2.7/3.15
Terell Owens 5/5
R. Moss 8.25/9.75
Torry Holt 3.85/4.15
Marty Booker 3/3.1
Andre Johnson 5/5.25
Rod Smith 3/5.5
Hines Ward 2.75/3.58
Derrick Mason 3/3

And he will be very close to others...
Burress 2.35/3.29
Coles 2/4
Darrell Jackson 2.5/3.25

Overall this contract is not in the elite range, but it is definatly in the #1 receiver range. Now whether he deserves it is still in question but I hope these numbers might help you determine that...

Welk, nice post.

It seems that Wayne's deal is in actuality a 3 year contract with funny money over the remaining three years. Correct me if I'm wrong, but can the signing bonus be spread out for only 5 years? If so, then after year 3 of Wayne's contract, the Colts options are: cut him after June 1 and spread the remaining SB cap hit over two years, restructure (most likely), or keep him under current conditions (as a Pats fan I hope they do this).

The Pats philosophy is spend high on the middle class (Mike Vrabel, Jarvis Green, etc.) spend the minimum on low end players, and spend as least as much as possible for the higher eschelon players (Seymour, Brady). Like Wayne's deal, the Pats are thinking about their cap situation 3 years from now. My guess is that the Pats want to reduce the SB and replace the reduction with either a roster bonus, which is not spread over the cap and/or reasonable incentives (playing time, volume stats, etc.).

Moreover, there's the 30% rule that limits the wiggle room for renegotiating a contract. Ask Bill Polian about that one when he tried to save cap room by adjusting Peyton and Marvin's cap figure.

All these things and perhaps more have to be considered with Branch's deal.

 

[Welker83]

Welk, nice post.

It seems that Wayne's deal is in actuality a 3 year contract with funny money over the remaining three years. Correct me if I'm wrong, but can the signing bonus be spread out for only 5 years? If so, then after year 3 of Wayne's contract, the Colts options are: cut him after June 1 and spread the remaining SB cap hit over two years, restructure (most likely), or keep him under current conditions (as a Pats fan I hope they do this).

The Pats philosophy is spend high on the middle class (Mike Vrabel, Jarvis Green, etc.) spend the minimum on low end players, and spend as least as much as possible for the higher eschelon players (Seymour, Brady). Like Wayne's deal, the Pats are thinking about their cap situation 3 years from now. My guess is that the Pats want to reduce the SB and replace the reduction with either a roster bonus, which is not spread over the cap and/or reasonable incentives (playing time, volume stats, etc.).

Moreover, there's the 30% rule that limits the wiggle room for renegotiating a contract. Ask Bill Polian about that one when he tried to save cap room by adjusting Peyton and Marvin's cap figure.

All these things and perhaps more have to be considered with Branch's deal.

I'm waiting for the new CBA to be written up regarding the Signing bonus proration..i was unsure so i just spread it over six years..if it is spread over five then add $450,000 to the cap hit for the first 5 years and subtract 2.25 million for the cap hit on the very last year...

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Welker you simply don't understand the market if you say the Wayne deal is not elite money and no big deal. And like many others you are getting confused in trying to compare apples to oranges in salary and cap hits of players at different junctures in their contracts.

These deals are judged based on the amount of up front and implicitly guaranteed money players receive over the first 3 years because of the money up front. Wayne will get over $22M in the first 3 years - so an average of over $7M per season. Or a million more than the current top 5 franchise average for WR. TO is geting $7.5M per on a short term (3 year) deal. That's elite money. Givens is getting just under $5M per with $8M up front on a 5 year deal. That's #1 money too. Ward is getting $6M+ with $10M up front on a 4 year deal. That's top ten #1 money. Wayne, Givens and TO were FA. Ward was not. Neither is Branch.

The total value of many of the long term deals is just fluff - what players never see because they either restructure or get cut over it. It's the first 3 years take that really counts, and salary and cap $$ in any given year in any of these deals are just a function of bookeeping in a system that allows 5 and 6 year amortization of payroll expenses.

Wayne also isn't being paid to be the #2 WR in Indy. He's being paid to be the #1b to Harrison, who at 34 is projected to be the #1b along side Wayne within the next season or two. And he's being paid that because in Indy with Manning they believe they have to provide continuity of elite weapons in order for Manning to perform even in the regular season. They lost a HOF RB this season he has never won without and that was all the loss they were prepared to absorb. The mentality and reality here in NE are very different. Brady won long before Dillon arrived. Brady won before Branch graduated college. He'll win again without him if he has to. He wins with the guys that end up on the roster with him. It's not like they wouldn't replace Branch with someone Tom could throw that rock to in 2007 and beyond.

And the transition tag is not useless. The league was not happy with the Hutchinson situation - you notice nobody else tried to copycat it in a copycat league because the league told them what transpired between Seattle and Minnesota would not be tolerated going forward and they will close that contract loophole before the next FA period.

So depending on the kind of season he has, as well as the kind of season Jackson and Caldwell have, both the transition and franchise tags are very much in play should NE not be able to get a deal done with Branch in 2006.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I'm waiting for the new CBA to be written up regarding the Signing bonus proration..i was unsure so i just spread it over six years..if it is spread over five then add $450,000 to the cap hit for the first 5 years and subtract 2.25 million for the cap hit on the very last year...

The new CBA term sheet is available and shows that amortization for 2006 is 5 years, it increases to 6 years for 2007-2010 and drops back to 5 years in 2011. The last capped year is 2010 so only deals extending beyond that point are subject to expiring CBA poison pill rules. Although both the NFL and the NFLPA can terminate the deal early in either 2008 or 2009 and then the last capped season would be scheduled for those seasons.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Transition Tag is useless see: Steve Hutchinson


Franchise Tag for next year should be 6.18 million..based off the top 5 salaries for 2007
R. Moss 9.75 mil
C. Chambers 5.4 mil
A. Johnson 5.25 mil
R. Smith 5.5 mil
T. Owens 5 mil

Transition tag will be 4.992 million
Based on the above plus:
L. coles 4 mil
Harrison 4 mil
Holt 4.15 mil
Ward 3.58 mil
Burress 3.29 mil

But it's useless w/ the whole poison pill thing...

The tag #'s for the following year are not calculated until the season is over. That is because any deals that are entered into this year will effect the calculation of next year's top five and top ten. And in calculating tags it is not just salary but salary plus the pro rated share of signing bonus money and any other bonus money received (like roster bonus or pro rated share of option bonus money or incentives reached the previous season and payable in the current season) aside from I believe workout bonuses... So it's closer to top five and ten cap #'s not salaries.

 

[Brady-To-Branch]

The new CBA term sheet is available and shows that amortization for 2006 is 5 years, it increases to 6 years for 2007-2010 and drops back to 5 years in 2011. The last capped year is 2010 so only deals extending beyond that point are subject to expiring CBA poison pill rules. Although both the NFL and the NFLPA can terminate the deal early in either 2008 or 2009 and then the last capped season would be scheduled for those seasons.

MoLu,

good stuff.

With the 5 year amortization period for 2006, I'm convinced Wayne's deal is a 3 years plus funny money in the latter 3 years.

Branch is probably looking for more money over the 1st 3 years than the team is willing to give. However, I doubt Branch wants to play out the final year of his rookie deal w/o an extension. That's the best leverage the Pats have.

Prediction: Branch will be extended sometime in August.