Guess who has the easiest schedule again???

[PatsFanInVa]

And while we are at it, can some national writer please lay to rest the whole oft-repeated "AFC East is the worst division in football" myth?

2016 division records:
27-12-1 -- .688 -- NFC East
26-14 --- .650 --- AFC West
24-16 --- .600 --- AFC East
21-19 --- .525 --- NFC South
18-22 --- .450 --- NFC North
17-23 ---- .425 --- AFC South
14-25-1 -- .363 --- AFC North
12-28 --- .300 --- NFC West

Just the most thoroughly dominated division... but dominated from within.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

it's really sad actually... Other AFC teams start for the most part in a 2-game hole.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Logically, when comparing the schedules between the Pats and the other three AFC East teams, the common games shared by those teams 12) have to cancel, and the two against each other shouldn't count - which means that, based on the previous season, the Pats will ALWAYS have the tougher schedule, since the two uncommon opponent games put the Pats against the two other AFC division winners. THe only reason the Patriots have an "easier" schedule than, say, the Jets, is because the Jets play the Patriots twice, while the Patriots play the Jets twice. Both teams will play four against Miami and Buffalo, four against the AFC West, and four against the NFC South. (Leaving the Pats with Houston and Pittsburgh, while the Jets get who? Jacksonville and Cleveland?)

Also, the NFC South > the NFC West and probably the NFC North, as well. Atlanta is the current class of the NFC, the Panthers have been to the SB with essentially the same team, the Saints are always a tough out, and the Bucs were much-improved last year (should have beaten Denver).

And the AFC West is a stacked division - probably the best division int eh AFC. So I find this analysis lacking. Sorely.

Exactly. Of course the Jets, Dolphins, and Bills will have a worse record when they are 1-5 vs the Patriots the year before. Other teams worse off because of the Patriots are the Broncos (0-1 vs Pats in 2016, prevented them from being a playoff team), the Steelers (0-1 vs Pats in 2016, difference between 12-4 and 11-5), and the Texans (0-1 vs the Pats in 2016, difference between 10-6 and 9-7.). That doesn't even count that they'd have to play the AFC Conference Title game participant Houston or then Conference Champion Pittsburgh, and Super Bowl Champion Atlanta, who woukd all have those designations had the Patriots lost to them.

All in all, counting the playoffs, the Patriots were 11-1 against opponents they are seeing again 2016, and 8-1 during the regular season. Take out that 8-1 and see what their opponent winning % becomes.

Every year I hear how they have an easy schedule despite playing the first place teams from year before, while the AFC East, while not great, is certainly better than some other divisions, even minus the Patriots.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Just the most thoroughly dominated division... but dominated from within.

and the division is not alone from the domination.

Pasted from the messages on a profootballtalk post:

quote: (The Patriots) have prospered from living in a historically weak AFC East… You can’t deny they wouldn’t be the same in the NFC

——-
reply:
Better check out their winning percentages of Brady vs. the AFC East, the rest of the AFC, and vs. the NFC

They are all very tightly bunched in the 75-77% range, almost no difference whatsoever!

Don’t believe me?

Before last season the totals were these:
Brady vs. AFC East: 0.767 (66-20)
vs. the rest of the AFC: 0.748 (80-27)
vs. the NFC: 0.762 (48-15)

The difference is basically statistical noise.

Brady has better records vs. the AFC South, the NFC North, NFC South, and AFC North than he has vs. the AFC East.

Facts aren’t hard to understand, though they can be conveniently ignored by some.

Of course now we can add a 17-2 season on top of those numbers, one loss to an AFC East foe and one loss to an NFC West team.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Trying to guess who has the easiest schedule before the season starts is a clear exercise in futility. This time last year everyone thought the Panthers would be tough and the Raiders easy, and that happens every year. There's way too much year-to-year variance to even pretend you can make these calls during the offseason.

 

[XLIX]

Football Outsiders: Patriots have easiest schedule in 2017

mod edit: FYI, link above is to an ESPN article, not to Football Outsiders.



Might as well get the excuses going early for the rest of the league when we're on our way to another #1 seed and Super Bowl appearance.

Cue up another 15+ weeks of "they haven't played anyone" ******** from the rest of the league, and half our own fan base...

The Patriots have the easiest schedule because they don't have to play the Patriots.

In fact, it is a mathematical certainty that the Patriots will have the toughest schedule of all AFC East teams IF we could take out games against each other.

 

[BradyFTW!]

and the division is not alone from the domination.

Pasted from the messages on a profootballtalk post:

quote: (The Patriots) have prospered from living in a historically weak AFC East… You can’t deny they wouldn’t be the same in the NFC

——-
reply:
Better check out their winning percentages of Brady vs. the AFC East, the rest of the AFC, and vs. the NFC

They are all very tightly bunched in the 75-77% range, almost no difference whatsoever!

Don’t believe me?

Before last season the totals were these:
Brady vs. AFC East: 0.767 (66-20)
vs. the rest of the AFC: 0.748 (80-27)
vs. the NFC: 0.762 (48-15)

The difference is basically statistical noise.

Brady has better records vs. the AFC South, the NFC North, NFC South, and AFC North than he has vs. the AFC East.

Facts aren’t hard to understand, though they can be conveniently ignored by some.

Of course now we can add a 17-2 season on top of those numbers, one loss to an AFC East foe and one loss to an NFC West team.

Also, if you look at each division's record against the other divisions, the AFCE typically grades out as one of the strongest divisions. Yes, that's largely because the Pats are the best in the league, but the other 3 typically hold their own against other divisions' 2-4 teams just fine as well. The AFCE simply isn't as weak as the idiot pundits like to claim.

 

[brdmaverick]

Also, the NFC South > the NFC West and probably the NFC North, as well. Atlanta is the current class of the NFC, the Panthers have been to the SB with essentially the same team, the Saints are always a tough out, and the Bucs were much-improved last year (should have beaten Denver).

I couldn't agree more. The NFC South is no joke. They represent four teams that can put up a fight. I'd rather play a division that has 1 formidable opponent and 3 cupcakes.

It just goes to show that the nay sayers go out of their way to make an argument that fits the narrative they want. As you noted, if we were playing the NFC West this year someone would make the argument that they are worst division in football. IF we played the NFC North they magically would be the worst division. One thing is true though, it DEFINITELY isn't the NFC South (especially when New Orleans is on the road).

 

[FourierSeries]

Of course they do. Literally every team in the league other than NE, with no exceptions whatsoever, absolutely sucks. They're all college level trash.

 

[Froob]

Too much changes year to year, useless to talk SOS now.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

2015 / 2016** variation in results of 3 games or more. If my math is right a 3 game change is around a 20% change in success/failure.
(**these are teams that caught my eye - maybe more)

Jets - 10 wins / 5 wins
Bengals - 12 wins / 6 wins
Arizona - 13 wins / 7 wins
Denver 12 wins / 9 wins
Raiders - 7 wins / 12 wins
Ravens - 5 wins / 8 wins
Phins - 6 wins / 10 wins
Atlanta - 8 wins / 11 wins
Dallas - 4 wins / 13 wins
Giants - 6 wins / 11 wins

Sure, based on prior year one can make estimates and projections. But the above list shows year to year variation is tangible. So, ultimately, a list defining who has the easiest 2017 schedule and who has the most difficult 2017 schedule will be known no earlier than December 2017. A list of who has the most difficult 2017 schedule created in April 2017 is sports media's version of a Home Depot can of Big Gap Filler.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

What fun!!!
More, please!

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Of course they do. Literally every team in the league other than NE, with no exceptions whatsoever, absolutely sucks. They're all college level trash.

You actually might be on to something here.

 

[goheels22002]

The opponents for any given season are pre-ordained from the moment the previous season ends. Reporters who whine about this are howling at the moon.

 

[Minitron]

If you take the winning percentages from last year we do not have the easiest schedule next year. The Colts have:
2017 NFL strength of schedule: Colts have it easiest, Broncos face a slate of doom

 

[DarrylS]

Is it me or does the off season get longer and longer every year??

Now we can look forward to 16 weeks of Shaunessy, CHB, talking about "Tomato Cans".. some folks should be put out of their misery.

Are Patriots this good, or is every other team bad? - The Boston Globe

DENVER — It must be December in the AFC. Chestnuts are roasting on open fires and Tomato Cans are falling down in front of the sons of Bill Belichick.

 

[TruthSeeker]

If you take the winning percentages from last year we do not have the easiest schedule next year. The Colts have:
2017 NFL strength of schedule: Colts have it easiest, Broncos face a slate of doom

Interesting, the Patriots actually have the 12th toughest schedule based on opponents records last year. That doesn't keep writers from proclaiming it's the 32nd toughest (i.e. easiest).

 

[Wordsmyth]

It's funny how when the Niners ran their dynasty (and had the easiest schedule), nobody complained. Hmm..

 

[MitchKumstein]

Interesting, the Patriots actually have the 12th toughest schedule based on opponents records last year. That doesn't keep writers from proclaiming it's the 32nd toughest (i.e. easiest).

I made the mistake of reading the article, the writer uses a made-up statistic called DVOA (or something stupid like that) to decide that the Patriots have the easiest schedule.

It reminded me of when espn used their contrived QBR stat to 'prove' that Brady was the 3rd worst quarterback of the week after a game where Tom completed over 60% of his passes with multiple touchdowns, no interceptions, and a triple-digit quarterback rating

 

[1960Pats]

If only the Pats could play themselves twice - that would improve the SOS

Taking the Jets off the schedule would also improve the SOS. That's doable.